Chapter 22 (22) Turn the tide

Zhuge Liang's persuasion of Sun Quan to unite Liu against Cao is undoubtedly a wonderful stroke in his diplomatic activities.However, Sun Quan's final decision was driven by his fundamental interests. As the spokesperson of the Liu Bei Group, Zhuge Liang obviously could not represent the interests of the Sun Quan Group.So, who analyzed Sun Quan from the perspective of fundamental interests, so that Sun Quan made up his mind to join Liu Bei?Please pay attention to it - try to turn the tide. Zhuge Liang's mission to Soochow fully demonstrated his outstanding diplomatic skills; Sun Quan judged the situation and decided to join forces with Liu against Cao.However, Sun Quan was very hesitant at first, because he surrendered Cao Pi, but he did not unite with Liu, nor did he defend neutrality.So why did Sun Quan make this decision?Did Zhuge Liang convince Sun Quan, or was it someone else?If there was someone else, what method did this person use to convince him?What really moved Sun Quan?

Professor Yi Zhongtian from Xiamen University was a guest on "Hundreds of Lectures", telling you the story behind Sun Quan's decision-making."Turning the Tide" is on the air, so stay tuned. We mentioned in the last episode that Sun Quan finally decided to unite Liu Bei against Cao Cao. It was a decision made after repeated thinking and weighing, and the person who can help Sun Quan settle this account cannot be Zhuge Liang, so Zhuge Liang is not Help Sun Quan settle accounts?No, Zhuge Liang settled the accounts for Sun Quan, and the method Zhuge Liang used when persuading Sun Quan was also to settle the accounts.Zhuge Liang helped Sun Quan settle three accounts: First, he should stop and not be disturbed.When a disaster is imminent, hesitation is the most taboo. You can't be indecisive, you can't wait and see suspiciously, the result of hesitant and suspicious wait-and-see is "the disaster will never end", this is the first account.In the second account, Zhuge Liang told Sun Quan that Liu Yuzhou still had more prestige because of the large number of generals.If you and I join forces, Cao Cao will surely be defeated and Cao Cao will be defeated.We will talk about how to calculate this account in the next episode.So what about the third account, what would happen if we defeated Cao Cao?A vigorous situation is formed.His original words were: "The power of Jing and Wu is strong, and the tripod is formed." Then we can create a situation where the three kingdoms stand together, or the world is divided into three parts, which is very beneficial to both you and me. of.So Zhuge Liang settled the score.

But this account has not been calculated; in other words, the calculation is not quite in place; or in other words, there are still problems with this algorithm.What's the problem?We see Zhuge Liang's first account, that is, you can't wait and see and be suspicious now, you have to make a decision between the two options.Since this is the case, you have to explain the advantages and disadvantages of these two options thoroughly.Which two options?One is confrontation and the other is surrender. Zhuge Liang has figured out the benefits of confrontation. What about surrender?Didn't say, if it's good for Sun Quan to surrender, or Sun Quan's good for surrendering to Cao Cao is greater than the good for fighting Cao Cao, then why not?He didn't talk about this.Second, there are also two results in fighting Cao Cao, one is to win, and the other is to be defeated. The benefits of winning Zhuge Liang said, what are they? "The power of Jing and Wu is strong, and the tripod is formed." Defeated?What will happen if you lose?Didn't say anything.This is equivalent to telling someone, buddy, let's rob the bank, as long as we succeed in robbing, we won't be able to spend this money for the rest of our lives!Caught it?He doesn't say, the police really come to arrest you, he doesn't care, is there such a way to help people out?But this, it cannot be said that there is a problem with Zhuge Liang's ability and level. He wants to lose the game before he moves. This is a truth that any military strategist understands. Zhuge Liang will not understand it. Even some of our current entrepreneurs understand it. You have to do You can’t think about how much I will earn after I succeed in a business, you have to think about how much I will lose after I lose money.So my proposition is that when you make decisions with others, you must always tell the bad, that is, what is the worst and worst result after you do this thing, if you can bear it psychologically, then you can make a decision and hold on to death I'm just so so, so so, so what, I don't care and I just do it.He will not understand this truth.The second one is to speak clearly when planning for others, and he will not understand this truth.

So why not?Because there is no way.At this time, Cao Cao's army had already arrived, and it was menacing and unstoppable. If they did not unite with Sun Quan, Liu Bei's group would be a dead end.What's more, Zhuge Liang is a fledgling, and he has not made any achievements. Luo Guanzhong helped him burn the fires that burned Xinye and Bowang. Three visits to thatched cottage.Regardless of morality or strategy, he can only hold Sun Quan tightly, that's all he can say. But you said that Sun Quan didn't understand in his heart?That doesn't make sense either.I have thought of these questions, Sun Quan can't think of it?Sun Quan's IQ should be higher than mine, so we have to ask, why didn't Sun Quan ask?There can only be one conclusion, that is, someone has already settled the account for Sun Quan before that, and Sun Quan has the bottom line, so there is no need to ask.So who is this person?

Zhuge Liang's one-sided words avoid the important and ignore the minor, which obviously represents the interests of the Liu Bei Group. It's not that Sun Quan doesn't understand, but he still decided to join Liu against Cao, which makes people feel a little strange. Why is Sun Quan like this?When politicians make decisions, they first proceed from the interests of their own group.However, the Sun Quan Group has different political interests from the Liu Bei Group. Zhuge Liang represented the interests of the Liu Bei Group. He only settled the alliance account for Sun Quan, so who on earth settled the other account for Sun Quan and really prompted Sun Quan to make a decision Woolen cloth?

Lu Su, why Lu Su?Because Lu Su is the designer of Jiangdong Group's political line and political strategy.Audience friends who have watched the episode "Longzhong Countermeasures" still remember that when Lu Su was in Jian'an for five years, there was a Soochow version of "Longzhong Pair". The strategy put forward in "Right" is to protect Jiangdong and see success or failure, first three points and then unification. This is his plan for Sun Quan.This plan includes three steps: the first step is to keep the vested interests of the Jiangdong Group, which is your base and you cannot lose it; the second step is to seize Jingzhou and Yizhou, and rule the river with Cao Cao; During the Northern Expedition, they ruled the world and became kings and emperors.Therefore, Lu Su has a complete set of ideas for the future development of Jiangdong Group.It was for such a reason that Lu Su advocated the Sun-Liu alliance.Because there is a premise for the realization of Lu Su's strategic plan, that is, Jingzhou must be in the hands of Liu Biao, because Lu Su's three points are Sun Quan, Liu Biao, and Cao Cao, but Liu Biao is dead, Liu Biao is dead, Jingzhou is not in Liu Bei's hands It fell into Cao Cao's hands, so Lu Su was in a hurry and ran to Dangyang to meet Liu Bei himself.So at this time, if Sun Quan and Liu Bei cannot form an alliance, Zhuge Liang is anxious, and Lu Su is also anxious, and he is even more anxious.

So what's so good about it?History is fun sometimes, where is it fun?At this juncture, Cao Cao inexplicably wrote a letter, which helped Lu Su a lot.How did Cao Cao write this letter?Cao Cao wrote this letter to Sun Quan. He said: "Those who are close to him will be punished with resignations, and Liu Cong will hold his hands." He said that the old man was ordered by the emperor and the court to crusade against those guilty. As soon as the military flag pointed to the south, that boy Liu Cong tied his hands and surrendered. "There are 800,000 sailors in Imzhi, and Fang and the general will hunt in Wu." Now the old man has reorganized another 800,000 sailors, and is going to hunt with you, General Sun Quansun, at the place where you are staying.What a big tone, according to historical records, when this letter was sent to Jiangdong, almost everyone was shocked.Cao Cao's letter is a key point in this case, because it is a turning point in this incident. Before that, we knew that Cao Cao went eastward along the river to beat Liu Bei, but if Cao Cao wrote this letter, then he went eastward along the river, that is If you beat Sun Quan, the Cao-Liu war will become the Cao-Sun war. This is very important, very crucial.Because before that, Sun Quan could completely watch the fire from the other side and watch from the sidelines, because it was someone who hit him, and now he was hit on his head, so can you still stand by and watch?Can't.So we wanted to figure out three questions: First, did Cao Cao write this letter?Second, why did Cao Cao write this letter?Third, when did Cao Cao send this letter to Sun Quan?

Cao Cao's letter is very suspicious, because this letter is not included in the main text of "Three Kingdoms", that is, Chen Shou did not include this letter when he wrote "Three Kingdoms", where is it recorded? "Three Kingdoms" Pei Songzhi's annotation quoted "Jiang Biao Zhuan", "Jiang Biao Zhuan" was a work of Jin Dynasty, its author was called Yu Pu, and later his son Yu Bo dedicated it to Emperor Jin Yuan, then it was written in "Three Kingdoms" "After that, Chen Shou certainly couldn't see it.However, if Cao Cao really wrote such a letter at that time, it should be said to be a big event, how could Chen Shou not know about it?This is a suspicious place.Second, Cao Cao wrote this letter strangely. Why did he write this letter?When Cao Cao went south to the east, according to the records of "Three Kingdoms • Cheng Yu Biography", Liu Bei ran to Sun Quan, and Cao Cao's counselors thought that Sun Quan would kill Liu Bei, but Cheng Yu said no.In other words, Cao Cao’s estimation of the situation at this time is nothing more than two kinds. One is that Sun Quan will kill Liu Bei, so there is no need to write a letter to Sun Quan; Why can't I write this letter?Because your writing this letter can only serve to promote their alliance.So some people say that this is a threatening letter, why is it called a threatening letter?Look at what Cao Cao said, there are 800,000 sailors in Imari, and Cao Cao's army and navy combined don't have 800,000. Where did he get 800,000 sailors?This is clearly a bluff.Of course, the ancients have always been bluffing when calculating their military strength. For example, 100,000 people claim to be 200,000.But if you make a discount, the 400,000 sailors can't do it. This is a bluff. What is the purpose of the bluff?Intimidation, what is the purpose of intimidation?I just told Sun Quan that you should be careful, the old man is now going to take Jingzhou and kill Liu Bei, so don't meddle and just wait, if you want to meddle indiscriminately, the 800,000 sailors, ah, the old man is not easy to mess with.

Then the threatening letter is of course reasonable, not unreasonable. The question is, will it be counterproductive for him to do so?At that time, his important counselor Cheng Yu concluded that Liu Bei and Sun Quan would unite. His reasoning was that although Sun Quan was a hero, he had no prestige at this time; Enemy of all people.Sun Quan must use Liu Bei's power, and Liu Bei must rely on Sun Quan when he is desperate, so they must unite.Even without Cheng Yu's words, according to Cao Cao's usual practice, he shouldn't be like this.Audience friends who have watched the previous program must remember that Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi went to Liaodong to seek refuge with Gongsun Kang. The people under him all advocated that Cao Cao should fight. Cao Cao said that there is no need to fight. If they are in a hurry, they will form a buddy. If we want to let him go, they will fight in the nest, waiting for Gongsun Kang to send me the heads of Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi. In the end, Gongsun Kang sent the heads of these two people to Cao Cao. .So why didn't Cao Cao wait for Sun Quan to send Liu Bei's head to him this time like the last time?Why did he take the opposite approach, to force Sun Quan, provoke Sun Quan, and force the two of them to become buddies?As far as Cao Cao's usual style is concerned, he doesn't make sense either.And at this time, Cao Cao at least had the idea that he hoped that Sun Quan could treat Liu Bei like Yuan Shao and Liu Biao. How should he treat him?It's okay to support them and put them on the shelf. Why force them to form an alliance?

So if this letter is written, there is only one speculation, that is, it is really going to beat Sun Quan.Then this letter is not a threatening letter, but a sign of war.Of course, this is not impossible, because Cao Cao is full of ambition and extremely proud at this time.We know that Cao Cao is very proud of himself. The four words "little man succeeds" are very suitable for him. As soon as he is proud, his tail is raised up as a flagpole, and he can't hide it. Hidden.At this time, he felt that he was very good, and he didn't pay attention to the twenty-seven-year-old Sun Quan, so he simply hugged the grass and beat the rabbit, and killed Liu Bei and killed Sun Quan, or he didn't really fight, I wrote a letter The letter frightened him, and he might surrender.It's also unclear, because people like Zhang Zhao were planning to surrender. If Lu Su, Zhou Yu, and Zhuge Liang hadn't stood up to them, they might have surrendered. It's hard to say, so there is a possibility.So the conclusion is, first, Cao Cao may have written this letter, or he may not have written it; second, if he wrote this letter, then it should be a sign of war.

Mr. Yi Zhongtian just mentioned that before the Battle of Chibi, Cao Cao wrote a letter to Sun Quan inexplicably. Regarding this letter, the historians have different opinions.If this letter really existed, it would undoubtedly be a good thing for Zhuge Liang. The existence of this letter immediately put Sun Quan and Cao Cao in direct opposition, and Sun Quan, who had nothing to do with himself, had to intervene in this war.But the question is, when did this letter arrive?How did it affect Sun Quan's decision?How will Lu Su settle accounts for Sun Quan with this letter? Then the third question is when was this letter delivered?It should be when Zhuge Liang and Lu Su returned to Chaisang. Sima Guang also thought so, but he said that after Lu Su and Zhuge Liang arrived in Chaisang, Zhuge Liang met Sun Quan immediately, and then Sun Quan accepted Zhuge Liang's proposal. It is suggested that a meeting be called to discuss whether to unite with Liu Bei to fight against Cao Cao. At this time, the letter was delivered, and he said "it is time", he used these two words, "yes" is this, and Cao Cao's letter just arrived at this time.Well, in our opinion, the letter should have arrived at the same time, but I don’t think that after Sun Quan received this letter, he didn’t hold a meeting first, and talk to Zhuge Liang first. I think he should hold a meeting first, and hold an internal meeting. Close the door and discuss what to do first.Then at this meeting, there was a lot of talk of surrender, everyone advocated surrendering to Cao Cao, only one person did not speak, Lu Su, the meeting could not go on, Sun Quan got up to go to the bathroom, and then Lu Su followed, Sun Quan immediately understood , Lu Su has something to say, and Lu Su's words cannot be said in public, they are whispered, so Sun Quan will turn his head and hold Lu Su's hand and say: Zijing, do you have anything to say to me?Lu Su said: I have something to say. Just now I heard Zibu and them, Zhang Zhao and the others, advised the general to surrender to Cao Cao. This is a mistake. Whether Cao Cao can surrender depends on who. For example, I, Lu Su, can surrender. But general, you cannot surrender, why?I, Lu Su, surrendered to Cao Cao. It’s amazing to go back to my hometown and be an ordinary citizen again. I can still pass the local assessment and recommendation and then apply for civil servants after being a common people in my hometown. Start step by step, until I get old, I will be a prefect or a state shepherd. It will be no problem, I can always go to socialize with scholar-bureaucrats in a bullock cart; General, you surrendered Cao Cao, where are you going? Woolen cloth?There are eight very important words: the general welcomes Cao, and wants to return home in peace.That is to say, a prince like you who dominates one side, you surrendered Cao Cao, do you have a home? This has reached Sun Quan's heart, and Sun Quan is most worried about this issue, which is not only his group's interests, but also his personal interests.Think about how Liu Cong surrendered to Cao Cao, how did Fu Xun settle accounts with him?Fu Xun told him, general, think about it, who can resist Cao Cao, rely on Liu Bei, so can Liu Bei resist?If you can't resist the general, you are finished. If Liu Bei can resist Cao Cao, will he still be your subordinate?Liu Cong thought, yes, I'd better surrender.Then Lu Su made this calculation, and Sun Quan said it was right, what should I do after I surrender?So he took Lu Su's hand and said, this is God bestowing my feet.Zhuge Liang couldn’t say this, because his position was different. He is not from Sun Quan, it’s not that he doesn’t have this level, he is not from Sun Quan, he can’t say it, and he can’t say it either.Only a person like Lu Su, who helped Sun Quan plan the plan of establishing the title of emperor to make the world famous, can he speak, he can speak, Sun Quan can listen to it, and they can talk to each other. Reaching such a tacit understanding can make it easy, and this word moved Sun Quan. When Lu Su is mentioned, people will think of the image of a loyal elder, portraying Lu Su as an honest gentleman, and not showing enough of his talents.In fact, Lu Su in history was a person with political vision. The Soochow version of "Longzhong Dui" he designed showed his superior strategic vision, which Sun Quan admired very much.After Liu Biao's death, Lu Su proposed to unite Liu against Cao and personally sent to Jingzhou, which created prerequisites for victory in the Battle of Chibi.Under the strong pressure of Cao Cao, Sun Quan was hesitant to fight or surrender, and Lu Su resisted all opinions, which made Sun Quan sigh.So, why did Lu Su's words impress Sun Quan?Mr. Yi Zhongtian believes that this is the real reason that prompted Sun Quan to unite with Liu Bei to fight against Cao Cao. Is there any basis? We have three historical materials as evidence. The first one is that after the Battle of Chibi, Lu Su returned from the battlefield first, and then Sun Quan sent all the important officials around him to meet Lu Su, and he himself walked out of the house Greet Lu Su, welcome Lu Su who has returned in triumph according to the highest standard.At this time, Sun Quan said such a sentence, saying Zijing, Gu has given you enough face today.Lu Su said, not enough.At that time, everyone was shocked, why did they speak like this?Lu Su walked in unhurriedly. After the two sat down, Lu Su held up his whip and said, what is Lu Su's wish?It is the general that one day you will be able to gain the supremacy, conquer the world, and rule the world. At that time, you will send a comfortable car to pick up Lu Su, and Lu Su will feel that it will be full of face!What's the meaning?You are the emperor.Sun Quan laughed out loud, what does laughing mean?What's on my mind. The second evidence is that when Sun Quan proclaimed himself emperor, it was twenty-two years after the Battle of Chibi, and Lu Su was no longer around.When Sun Quan proclaimed himself emperor, he wanted to go to the altar. He walked around, and when he was halfway there, he suddenly turned around and said: Do you know, Lu Zijing has long thought that I have today, um, it is really sensible!It also shows that Sun Quan's desire to become emperor is his real idea. The third piece of evidence is that after Sun Quan proclaimed himself emperor, Zhang Zhao, who advocated surrendering to Cao Cao, also raised his fluoren to prepare to sing his praises and congratulate His Majesty.Sun Quan blocked his hand, wait a minute, Mr. Zhang, forget it. If I had listened to Mr. Zhang, I would be begging for food now, let alone be the emperor now.Then these three pieces of evidence all show that what moved Sun Quan and made Sun Quan determined to unite with Liu Bei was Lu Su's words: The general welcomes Cao, and he wants to return in peace. If you don't surrender to Cao Cao, then you can only unite with Liu Bei.Then to unite with Liu Bei, we must consider whether Liu Bei can unite or not.Because even if it is against Cao Cao at this time, Sun Quan still has two choices, one is to unite with Liu Bei to fight against Cao Cao, and the other is not to unite with Liu Bei and fight against Cao Cao by himself, he also has two choices.Of course, if Liu Bei can unite, the alliance is cost-effective. Although he is weak and I am strong, but when the combination of strong and strong cannot be achieved, sometimes it is not impossible to consider the combination of strong and weak.So can Liu Bei unite?Who should I ask this question?Zhuge Liang, this question cannot be answered by Lu Su. So I think what the procedure should be: Lu Su and Zhuge Liang returned to Chaisang from Xiakou, and Cao Cao’s letter also arrived. Of course, it is also possible that he did not have this letter. It must be made clear, or there may be no such letter—— Without this letter, it will not hinder the final decision-making process, because according to "Three Kingdoms", after Cao Cao took Jiangling, the Jiangdong side was already frightened by the wind, and they were already terrified when they heard the wind—so at this time, Cao Cao went smoothly. Jiangdong, because where is Liu Bei?Xiakou and Fankou are already very close, so in this case, Cao Cao went east to fight Sun Quan or Sun Quan.Then after getting this news, Sun Quan must first call an emergency internal meeting, which is what Lu Su said.Lu Su's words can solve the problem. Apart from what he said in Sun Quan's heart, it is also very important that he changed the problem, because what was Sun Quan hesitating before, and what was Sun Quan hesitating about? ?Help Liu Bei, don't help Liu Bei, help Liu Bei, don't help Liu Bei, help Liu Bei, don't help Liu Bei. If you don't help Liu Bei, no matter what, he won't be able to fall.At this time, Lu Su changed the question. Now what we want to think about is not whether to help Liu Bei, but whether to surrender. He changed the question to think about.Sun Quan suddenly realized, yes, if you can't surrender, if you can't surrender, you can unite with Liu Bei; if you can unite with Liu Bei, ask Zhuge Liang.It is such a series. Therefore, the number one hero of the Sun Liu Alliance should be Lu Su, not Zhuge Liang as Sima Guang and the others think.There is a conclusion to this issue in history. Pei Songzhi talked about this issue in the two biographies of "Three Kingdoms". What did Pei Songzhi say?Pei Songzhi said: "Liu Bei stood side by side with power and rejected China together. They are all Su's original intentions." The number one contributor to Liu Union is Lu Su.The biggest role of Lu Su is to help Sun Quan settle a political account, that is, he cannot surrender to Cao Cao. After surrendering to Cao Cao, our Jiangdong Group will be gone, and neither will your General Sun.However, whether it is possible to unite with Liu Bei, Zhuge Liang will solve this problem.Because at this time Sun Quan has already understood this problem, he will tell Zhuge Liang that my plan is decided, no one can be Cao Cao except Liu Yuzhou, but after the new defeat of Yuzhou, what will happen?Zhuge Liang answered this question, although we are defeated in Liu Yuzhou, but we are still so so.Zhuge Liang helped Sun Quan settle the alliance accounts, whether the alliance could be possible, and also partly helped Sun Quan settle the military accounts, because Zhuge Liang's analysis of Cao Cao's inevitable defeat was also very exciting and very in place.But there is another account, that is, can I, Sun Quan, fight Cao Cao to the death?I, Sun Quan, also have to settle the military accounts, so who should be the person who helped Sun Quan settle the military accounts?Please see the next episode - the mainstay.