Chapter 18 Chapter 17 Probability and Statistics

After my girlfriend and I tried Yunyu for the first time, I was tortured by her for a long time.She wants to know exactly, at the end of my first test of cloud and rain, whether the rain shoots into the cloud or splatters to the ground. "Did you ejaculate?" My girlfriend smiled very beautifully, but when her face was thrown down like a rag and her cheeks drooped, you would feel that the sky was covered by dark clouds, and there were countless kinds of heaviness that made it difficult to look up. "I don't remember clearly. I was a virgin at the time, and I went through a lot of physical changes and a lot of psychological pressure in a short period of time. My brain is not so good, I can't remember."

"You have a good brain. You remember the physical and psychological details of many girls. I am familiar with you. Let me ask you, did you ejaculate?" "I really can't remember. I was sick. I went to the toilet twenty times a day. I almost pulled my brains out. What can I remember? You know." When my girlfriend tortured me, I I often imagine that she is a female spy sent by the enemy, and I am a male hero.This female spy is eager to know from me whether we have any plans to attack Jiang Bandit's county.Now, the lure has not worked, and the female spy has a hideous face, and pulls out a small silver pistol from her small leather bag.

I grew up under the red flag, the sun is dazzling under the red flag, there is no night, and I have never seen a real villain.My concept of the dark side of society all comes from newspapers and movies.When I was a child, I read a newspaper called "Youth Pioneer". Every week, each issue had a column "Socialism is good, capitalism is bad".There are two photos in the first issue, with text descriptions under the photos, one photo tells the good of socialism, and the other accuses capitalism of being bad.In my mind, America is an ugly place of bullets and whores.One day, I arrived in that country with anxiety. I stepped off the plane wearing a bulletproof vest and looked for prostitutes all over the world with my eyes wide open. I only saw a lot of sports-loving and pure-hearted Americans wearing big pants, big vests and sneakers.So I found out that the book is indeed a bitch, and I can't believe it all.When I was a child, I also liked to watch movies about the struggle against the enemy. The Jiang bandits and the Kuomintang Japanese reminded me how dark society can be.I especially like the movies about fighting against the enemy, there are female spies, especially those where the female spies seduce the male hero.The Red Army will always defeat the White Bandits, and female spies are always more enchanting than female underground workers.The female spy is extremely vulgar, with a face full of makeup, curly hair, a cheongsam with bare buttocks or a military uniform with a pinched waist, holding a cigarette in one hand, and always putting the other hand on our male hero when there is nothing to do.It's not easy for the male hero in the movie to eat a tiger stool if he is hard, or to be sexually harassed by a female spy if he is soft. If I change it, I may have problems.In the first few erotic dreams, the female spies appeared, but I couldn't stand the test.I am walking on the street now, and when I see ladies with special occupations, I often suspect that they have an evolutionary origin or blood relationship with female spies, just like gorillas and monkeys.In short, I grew up under the red flag, those dark sides exist in other parts of the earth or at some time in the past, we have sunshine and no night.

"I'm not joking with you. I told you that I was in a dangerous period. I should have been unlucky three days ago, but it hasn't come yet. I am in good health and I have always been very accurate. If something goes wrong, There are serious consequences for both of us." My girlfriend emphasized the word "we", "You have to recall carefully, did you ejaculate that day or not? We can discuss countermeasures." The heating in the dormitory was very good, but I still shivered and realized the seriousness of the problem.My girlfriend said that she is very accurate, that is, she is very accurate. The waxing and waning of the moon and the rise and fall of the tide are all adjusted according to my girlfriend's cycle.Much of what is said in the book is obviously false.In foreign pornography, those men and women must be acting, trying to pretend to be wild, just like the boys and girls in Qiong Yao's romance movies trying to pretend to be innocent.If I knew that this matter was so boring and troublesome afterwards, I wouldn't have done it that day if I had a stomachache and a large intestine.I think, if Zhu Bajie knew in advance that ginseng fruit is not as delicious as cucumber, he would definitely not carry a rake to learn Buddhist scriptures with Tang Seng.

"I think there should be no problem. First, I am not that strong. My mother said that I have been weak and sick since I was a child. The infectious disease ward of Fuxingmen Children's Hospital is full of people from mumps to hepatitis A. I am not that strong. It can be shot. If you don’t believe me, I have other genetic supporting evidence to support the above argument. My dad has always had a strong sex drive. Until now, the night is long, and I suspect that he sometimes peeks at my brother’s private collection of porn; My mother is a purebred Xiongnu, she grew up drinking blood, and her body is no worse than yours; but they only have my brother, my sister, and me, three children, and they were by no means prolific at that time. At that time, family planning was just mentioned, and it hadn’t been caught yet. My father and mother are rough people without much medical knowledge, and it is impossible to use strict contraception. All this shows that my father's success rate is not high. My Y chromosome comes from my father, which is not a good variety. Besides My brother, his Y chromosome also comes from my father. He often ran away from home when he was fourteen, and came back after walking for a while. He often stayed in Yehe train stations and long-distance bus stations. My brother brought a girl home when he was sixteen, and he claimed to be his girlfriend. Returning a bag of jelly beans can make you proud of the world. Since then, my brother’s girlfriend has been changing continuously, but until today, I have never heard of any mistakes. I firmly believe that my brother has never used a condom. He is a A very reckless person, he is superstitious, and told me that the condom hinders the communication of yin and yang. All this once again shows that my father's Y chromosome is not a good variety. Second, there may be other reasons for your unlucky luck. The bad luck is A physiological phenomenon that is closely related to psychological factors. I think that after that time, your long-term high-intensity anxiety is likely to affect your menstrual cycle. My sister told me that every time she was sadly abandoned and sad, there would be a Two months of menstrual disorders, long and short, dripping endlessly; on the contrary, every time she abandons others, she only loses her appetite for one or two meals, and after a day or two, she is full of life and vitality again. I got a conversation with today A conclusion that has nothing to do with the subject matter, being ruthless and preemptive, there is no harm. Third, according to my incomplete memory, I did not shoot in. During the whole process, your pants were not completely taken off, and your shoes were still on. It's jeans, it's not elastic at all, and your legs are not skinny. In short, your legs are not open. I have no experience. I thought that between your legs is where my things should be, so I spend most of my time there. In addition, my talent is average, I am not humble, I take a bath twice a week in a public bathhouse, I can see it without observing it specially. A half-naked beauty, Hopu looked at it while taking a bath, his things were always standing upright. Moreover, I was sick at the time, the hero was no match for San Paoxi, my vitality was not enough, my things naturally did not have the proper size .So even though I understand that between your legs isn't where my stuff should be, I don't have enough length to get in. Yeah, I remember, IBasically nothing was inside, because I felt the wind rising from my crotch all the time, and it was chilly.Not if my things are always wrapped in you. "I stopped to take a breath, and I admired myself, the language is rigorous, and the logic is rigorous.

"Are you sure you didn't go in at all? Why is there blood in my panties?" "Is there really blood in your panties?" My girlfriend sighed quietly: "I'm so wronged. I finally made up my mind and gave it to someone, but that person didn't believe it. The environment was so bad at that time, and I was in a hurry to send you to the hospital. In the hospital I saw blood in the toilet. I can’t show you your underwear in front of Doctor Zhang and have a discussion like this with you. I thought you were a person with very modern concepts. I told you, just put your underwear on Wash it. I am so wronged. Now, even if I show you that pair of underwear, you still have to wonder whether the blood on it is my blood or the blood of chicken blood and mouse blood. Even if the me on it is my blood, you are Don’t you still have to doubt whether it was my blood at that time, or the blood I smeared later, for you to see. I am so wronged.” Her tears fell down without twitching, and she cried while she was crying. Continuing, "As I said earlier, boys seem to care a lot about getting it. If you think you can live without it on your wedding night, you can have it when you see fit. Did I say that? The day after you ejaculated, did I ask you, 'Do I pay you by doing this?' Do you remember?"

I quickly hugged her, licked her tears dry, said don't cry, said of course she said it, said of course I remember it, even though I can't remember anything.Being a girl is also unlucky, always be prepared to argue with a boy about this matter.But being a boy is even more unlucky. Boys don't even have a theoretical foundation. If you say you are a virgin, who will prove it?how to prove?Therefore, if you say you are, you are, and you are not; if you say you are not, you are not, and you are not.So, many years later, I told my wife that I was a virgin, and she was so happy that she went to the emergency room.

"We won't discuss this issue anymore, it's too boring. That layer of membrane is like a layer of paper, so what if it is there, so what if it is pierced? We shouldn't care too much about this matter." My girlfriend suddenly stopped crying, "What do you mean? You still don't believe me?" "Of course I don't mean that. I mean, it's just a layer of connective tissue, it doesn't matter, what matters is you, what matters is that you are with me." "You still don't believe me." "Okay, now that I think about it, even though my stuff wasn't in there at all, there were two times when it got in. Once it was very shallow, and the other time it was really deep. I still remember you crying very lightly, saying as if Something was ripped apart. I was really touched, and I feel like my life is complete now." In my mind, I went back to that moment.Throughout the whole process, although my girlfriend acted calmly, resolutely and skillfully, she seemed to have this kind of temperament in doing many things, and she was calm when facing major events.Peking University selects international ballroom dancers. My girlfriend has never danced before. She went to the test and danced around. The main examiner thought she had practiced professionally, at least she was eliminated after professional trial training.There is no way, this is called a good sense of dance, which is natural.Maybe she also has talent in that area, and she feels good in bed.

"So there's still a chance you could have ejaculated in there?" "Let me tell you, as soon as I felt that I was going to come out, I immediately quit. Actually, at that time, as soon as you felt a strange movement, you immediately jumped up. If you jumped up, I couldn't do it if I didn't come out. And , a lot of it came between your legs. You wiped it off yourself. I saw it." "However, this does not rule out that before you came out, before I jumped up, there had already been swimming spirits in. Qiushui, don't be impatient, you know, don't be afraid of ten thousand, just in case. One billion sperm failed, one The sperm got its way, and we're screwed."

"I'm so tired, I'm not an optimistic person, but I don't bother to calculate the odds of me being fucked until it turns out I'm fucked. Let's sum it up, number one, the chances of me cum inside are slim, Even if possible, the amount is small. Second, even if I ejaculate inside, my sperm is weak, and the chances of anything happening to you are very small. Third, you were definitely a virgin before we did this, Whoever doubts this matter, I will fight desperately. Fourth, I will not go in without wearing a condom and cutting off my head. There is only so much I can do. If you still can’t think about it, then jump off the building if you want to Well, I won't stop it."

For the next few days, my girlfriend stopped pulling me to discuss my chances of conception.The Peking University self-study room was closed at ten o’clock, and the dormitory turned off the lights and locked the door at eleven o’clock. During this period, she took me to accompany her to run around the Peking University campus.Her reason is very simple: "I want to use running to promote the shedding of the uterine wall and welcome the arrival of bad luck." From then on, the uterus will always be like a house that needs constant maintenance in my impression, with the walls hanging from the walls , rustled and withered in the shock. My physique is far less robust than that of my girlfriend, and my schoolbag is bulging. In addition to teaching materials, teaching materials, leisure books (fiction), stationery, dictionaries, walkmans, tapes, there is also a huge rice bowl with a spoon and a The fork clanked and rattled as it ran.That rice bowl was a prize for my girlfriend's long-distance running competition, with red letters on a white background: "Peking University Women's 800-meter Champion".My girlfriend also got a lot of soap, towels, washbasins, enough for us to use for a lifetime, if we were together all the time.On the one hand, my girlfriend's health is good; on the other hand, Peking University students are generally in poor health.Even if I was like me, the ugly duckling who was always the last one in sports in my poor middle school, in Peking University, sports were always excellent. Carrying my big schoolbag, I ran wildly, following behind my girlfriend, and I jingled.We ran across Boya Tower, Maple Island, Zhongting, and Linhuxuan. In order to facilitate the falling off, we jumped up and down and ran on uneven roads.There are often dark corners on uneven roadsides. These corners gather people who have spent a night of self-study, between the closing of the study room and the lock of the dormitory, hurrying up, groping, and messing around.Our strange combination, my clinking sound, my strange running posture, in the dark night, frightened many people, we often appeared in their dreams, and caused them difficulty in nocturnal emission in their dreams. The wall of the palace still does not fall off, and the bad luck still does not come.I can't run anymore.I have a bicycle, and there is a basket in front of the car. I put two people's schoolbags into the basket, and rode behind my girlfriend, and I still jingle.In the dark of night, we frighten many more people like this. Time passed slowly hour by hour, and I felt that the probability of our end was tenfold and tenfold. The shadow of the end of the world was swaying in the sky, and it became clearer by the hour, and more certain by the minute.I prepared for the worst. My brother’s army bag was thrown under the bed at home, and I could still find it. If my mother dared to say a word to me, I slung my brother’s army bag on my back, and put three dry steamed buns and a piece of it in it. A kitchen knife, sleeping at a long-distance station and eating dry steamed buns.I know all kinds of life skills.I am a person with a strong sense of crisis.When I was very young, when I saw a beggar, I thought that one day I might be like that too.I'm not talented enough to be a coolie, and I'm not as fierce as my brother, and the kitchen knife dances with yellow sand; I need to practice other skills for life.I have good handwriting, black and big, like Dong Qichang.I work on Zhiyin, which is called Kezhaozi in local dialect, and looks like Zhao Bei'an.The Mingqian I wrote ignites blue flames.The lithograph of "Dean's Affairs Office of Nanjing University" I engraved was neatly and beautifully engraved on my sister's transcript.I can't carve the round edge of the official seal perfectly, and Zhao Bei'an has never engraved a round edge.I emptied the monosodium glutamate bottle, dipped it in cinnabar and placed it around the seven characters "Dean's Office of Nanjing University".The foreigner didn't know Zhao Bei'an well. Seeing that Zhu Hong's Chinese characters were printed on the transcript of all excellent students, he gave his sister the full award.I passed the TOEFL test with full marks, so I can go to New Oriental to teach English.I still have a pen in my head, and I can still write "Quan Yong", "Gu Long Ming", and "Gu Long Ju" to cheat money.I can still feed two people. After the advanced mathematics class, my girlfriend said that she had something to discuss, and we will meet in Jingyuan half an hour later.In the quiet garden, the wind was blowing, and there was not a single leaf or fruit on the low peach and apple trees.My girlfriend came from a distance, with her hair coiled up, a bronze woolen coat, a black scarf, and a black bag. She had her hands in her pockets, her face was full of wind, and she seemed to be a thousand years old.She took out a slender piece of paper, and in the gusts of wind, I smelled a faint smell of urine. "Look carefully, there are two red lines. One red line is negative, and two red lines are positive. According to the product description, the accuracy rate is greater than 99%, so don't calculate the probability with me anymore. I will go to the hospital in the afternoon to clarify Just a moment. You and I don’t see each other for the next three days, and we have to think carefully about what to do. Don’t come to me, you must never come to me, I will come to you.” My girlfriend was surprisingly calm, and I carefully observed and let go On the white piece of paper in front of my nose, there are indeed two faint red lines at the end of the piece of paper where the smell of urine is the strongest.I understand that I can't be of any help, and she won't let me do anything.I looked into the distance, the distance was gray and bald, and I took a look at my girlfriend's attire, she was mature enough to be a wolf grandmother. "Do you want sunglasses, I have a very dark pair in my dormitory." I said.My girlfriend turned away with no expression on her face, and soon disappeared into the gray distance.On the second and third day, my girlfriend didn't come to class.I haunt classrooms and dormitories like a walking corpse, and I can’t hear what the teacher said in front of the classroom no matter how hard I try, it seems to say that ears evolved from jaws; snakes have bones in their penises, so you don’t have to worry about impotence for a lifetime; kangaroos There are two penises, but you can't sleep with two kangaroos because each female kangaroo has two holes.Huang Qi quietly asked me, do I want to stop writing martial arts novels and rewrite poems?After much deliberation, I realized that after being expelled from school, it would be more realistic to make a living and still be able to practice my hands. If I could go back to the medical university, my hands would still be nimble and I could do surgery.I went home and found my brother's army bag, a set of carving knives for stamps and a printing bed for fixing stones.I went to Liulichang again, and picked up two octagonal carving knives with two blades on both ends. The knives are fast and do not need to be changed frequently; I added a printing bed fixed with screws. The original printing bed was fixed with small wooden blocks. , it is inconvenient to work outside; I finally bought a "Si Ti Dictionary", which is convenient and quick to check the writing of seal characters. My basic skills in seal characters are not very solid, so I often have to look up the dictionary. It is extremely primitive and cannot adapt to numerous orders after commercialization in the future.I put all my things in the military bag and hung them on the bedside, waiting quietly for my girlfriend to arrive, and then told her that we don't have to be afraid. When my girlfriend came, I was skipping class and sleeping in the dormitory.Everyone else has gone to "Vertebrate Zoology". In my state, no matter how I listen, I can only hear words such as penis, uterus, and chest. It is better to sleep.My girlfriend came in, and with a gust of wind, a big bulging bag was thrown on my bed.Before I could fully open my eyes, I heard my girlfriend say: "I fucked him. It's okay. I'm unlucky. I went to the hospital. The doctor said it wasn't like it. I gave a few injections. I'm unlucky today. I fucked him." Pregnancy test paper." It was the first time I heard my girlfriend swear at the street, and the swearing was better than anyone else, and I woke up completely. "Look at what I brought." My girlfriend opened her schoolbag, and the covers of the schoolbag shook off on my bed. There was a large spread of colorful, colorful ones, some with flowers on top, and some with thorns.People are really sick things, they habitually complicate simple things.If a person grows a horn and a tail, there will be two industries with huge output value in the world, which can meet the various needs of the horn and tail, and even produce various needs that the horn and tail have never thought of. "Even if you wear two at a time, you won't be able to use them up. Why do you have so many?" "It must be used up." My girlfriend said viciously, and I could hear an evil fire. "Using a condom is not necessarily safe. I didn't go to class for two days, but I was not idle. I did a thorough investigation and research. Even if the method is correct, a condom is only used once, and the contraceptive failure rate is still 100%. Two to twelve." "In that case, the average failure rate is 7%. Let's be conservative, let's count as 10%." My girlfriend immediately calmed down and started scientific calculations. "Does this mean that even if you use a condom, if you do it ten times, you will inevitably get pregnant once?" "You are scared. Don't be so pessimistic. Your condom is not in vain, and your hard work is not in vain. Well, I will give you a probability and statistics problem. It is not difficult, but you need to turn a corner. Assuming that the correct use of condoms fails to prevent pregnancy The rate is 10%, have sex ten times, use the condom correctly every time, ask, how likely is the contraceptive failure to conceive a child. One of the hints, your thinking just now is a typical error. Do it ten times, in statistics The above are isolated events, and cannot be summed simply by arithmetic." "Yes, that's not right. If you do ten times, one failure is a failure. You should count the probability of one failure in ten times, add the possibility of two failures, add the possibility of three failures, and add up to ten times. The probability of failure ten times out of ten. The final sum is the probability of contraception failure and having a child." "The idea is on the way. If you calculate it this way, the result must be correct. However, this algorithm is not the most clever." "I find it troublesome myself. Don't tell me the correct solution. You shut up and dare to make a sound. I will punish you to do it ten times without a condom. I figured it out. Do it ten times. One failure is a failure, that is, In other words, subtraction is more suitable for this problem than addition. One hundred percent minus the probability of all ten contraceptive successes is the probability of contraceptive failure to conceive a child. The answer is, one hundred percent minus zero Nine to the tenth power!" "Correct. The final result is that ten times of intercourse, using the condom correctly every time, the probability of contraception failure and pregnancy is 65 percent." "It's very likely." My girlfriend was lost in thought, her face drooping again. "If the number of times of sexual intercourse is N, when N is infinitely large, for example, in reality, we use up this schoolbag cover, then the second term of the equation tends to zero, and the possibility is almost 100%." "We're screwed. I think teachers, parents, and schools, although they haven't gone through our rigorous calculations, rely on their worldly wisdom to come to the same conclusions as ours. Live a life of caution, put an end to sexual behavior, and keep your mind out of it." Fortunately, shooting is better than accident, and accident is better than being caught." "Don't be so pessimistic. We can also use other methods. If the two methods are used together, the probability of failure will be greatly reduced. Related events are multiplicative in statistics." "The ligation operation is too painful, and a certificate from the unit is required. The contraceptive pill has side effects, and I don't want you to suffer." My girlfriend smiled leisurely, and took out a stack of yellow graph paper from her schoolbag. The graph paper was filled with small squares.This kind of coordinate paper is often used in physical experiments and analytical chemical experiments, such as drawing acid-base titration curves and so on. "When I was upset, I also did research. I will strictly record my basal body temperature, observe the condition of cervical mucus, accurately calculate the ovulation period, and calculate the safe period." My girlfriend grabbed a pencil and asked me on a piece of coordinate paper Make gestures, which piece is used to draw the temperature curve, which piece is used to record cervical mucus, and what symbols are used to mark the thick and thin. "Now you know the benefits of finding a girl like me. You don't have to worry about it at all, and you can live a carefree life."