Chapter 130 Did Mao Zedong's decision cost the volunteers more than 100,000 lives?

Some experts said that the second and third battles pushed the Americans to the 38th parallel. At that time, the Americans wanted peace talks, but Mao Zedong refused.This refusal made the Chinese army pay the price of sacrificing hundreds of thousands of lives, accounting for 70% of the casualties of the volunteers in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea. It took two more years to fight, but the result was also the 38th Parallel Armistice.Therefore, they believe that Mao Zedong's decision-making is inappropriate or even wrong. In fact, this kind of understanding is typical hindsight, and it is also a naive theoretical deduction.Because it does not conform to the principle of epistemology.

At that time, Mao Zedong decided to send troops to North Korea to resist US aggression and aid Korea when he was caught off guard.When he decided to send troops, Mao Zedong basically didn't know much about North Korea's geography and war situation.Regarding the United States, although we know that it is the world's number one, and that the US military is the world's number one, Mao Zedong and the generals of the Communist Party do not have much substantive understanding of how big and powerful it is. That is to say, when the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea was fought, Mao Zedong, like other Communist Party military generals, did not know much about the U.S. army and its combat capabilities, equipment, and tactics.

Therefore, Mao Zedong's decision to resist US aggression and aid Korea, in Mao Zedong's own words, was to learn war in war. In fact, Mao Zedong learned about his opponents in the war, and made decisions about the war while knowing himself but not knowing the enemy. Fighting against an opponent without knowing the opponent, the first fight went smoothly; the second fight went so smoothly that the Americans wanted to stop. According to the theory of epistemology, Mao Zedong certainly believed that under smooth conditions, the North Korea could not be stopped, and the Americans could be driven out of North Korea by crossing the 38th parallel.

After the third, fourth, and fifth battles, Mao Zedong basically understood the strength of the United States, fully realized their modernization level and capabilities, and realized that it would be difficult for the Volunteer Army to drive the Americans out of North Korea with its own strength. final goal. That is to say, on the Korean battlefield, the United States cannot defeat China, and it is difficult for China to defeat the United States.According to military expert Xu Yan, at this time, the two sides have reached four balances: The first is the balance of the international strategic structure, the confrontation between the two camps represented by the United States and the Soviet Union;

The second is the balance of the combat space. The U.S.-China war is three armies against one army. You only have the army on land, sea and air. In addition to fighting on the frontal battlefield, you also have the east coast and west coast. If you fortify on three sides, it is enough for others to fight on one side; The third is to achieve a balance in combat time. During the day, the Americans rule, and at night, the volunteers rule; The fourth is the balance of combat effectiveness of the soldiers. The volunteers have an advantage in fighting spirit, and the Americans have an advantage in weapons and equipment.In this way, on the whole, the two sides have reached a relative balance.

Now that the Volunteer Army has driven the Americans from the Yalu River back to the 38th parallel, and China's border security goals have been achieved, timely negotiations to achieve a truce are a very realistic and feasible option. Therefore, Mao Zedong assessed the situation and made a strategic decision to negotiate with the United States and cease the war at an appropriate time.