Chapter 21 The great power competition behind the turmoil in the third quarter

After Egypt, the baton was passed to Libya.The timing is also almost seamless - but the hidden content is much richer, and I will help you analyze the astonishing inside story. The riots in Libya ignited the rising energy gathered by the riots in Tunisia and Egypt, and oil prices rose rapidly.The emergence of this situation tends to be consistent with my judgment when North Korea and South Korea confronted each other.This proves once again that once the general trend is established, it is irreversible and difficult to be changed by other forces. Why did the price of oil rise in Libya? A more intuitive reason is that Libya is one of the major members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the twelfth largest oil exporting country in the world.

Libya and Iran have a different impact on oil prices.However, there is a deeper reason hidden in it. Gaddafi is the sworn enemy of the United States and the entire Western world.what does this mean?This means that Gaddafi has nowhere to go. Facing the demonstrations of the people, in terms of his character, he will definitely put all his eggs in one basket. In his words: "will fight to the last drop of blood!" Therefore, the turmoil in Libya is more difficult to end in the short term than in Tunisia and Egypt, it is easier to spread and spread the turmoil, and it is easier to cause civil war!The government's suppression of the opposition is also more likely to lead to armed intervention by Western developed countries.

Regarding the previous riots in Tunisia and Egypt, the attitude of the US government was more silent.Because the United States must not only consider maximizing its own interests, but also consider not violating the wave of democracy it advocates.It's a tightrope balance to walk that can be difficult to strike. Not so with Libya. Gaddafi has escaped countless assassinations, but this time, Gaddafi is in crisis.Because it was his people who opposed him, and it was no longer just a few stragglers who pointed their guns at him. It is worth mentioning that Europe is more active than the United States in dealing with the Libyan issue.France, in particular, has the toughest and most positive attitude towards Libya in the entire West.Sarkozy is the first president to recognize the Libyan opposition as the "sole legitimate representative" of Libya - which means that France, which has more interests in Libya, has left no retreat for itself.Sarkozy's decline in domestic support has prompted him to rush to shift targets, and Sarkozy's bet means that he will definitely strangle Gaddafi with all his strength.Once the opposition wins, France will become the biggest winner in Libya - of course the Americans don't think so, they are more meticulous, more organized, and more farsighted.

Why is there such a situation? Because Libya is rich in oil and natural gas reserves, Europe has always been terrified by Russia's natural gas stick policy.France and Italy quickly occupied the Libyan oil and gas market after American companies were kicked out by Gaddafi, which provided an opportunity for Europe to ease (of course not enough to lift) the pain caused by Russia's natural gas curse-since 2005 Every year, about 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas are exported from the Melita natural gas base in Libya, through the coast of Libya, and then exported to southeast Sicily, Italy through submarine pipelines, and then transferred to the whole of Italy and other European countries.The reason why Europe is more active than the United States is also because it is afraid that the United States will seize the opportunity. After all, the strength of the United States is superior.

From the perspective of the United States, its confrontation with Russia is inevitable. No matter how close Russia is to the West, it is still Russia after all, a big country that threatens the United States and Europe. If Europe is helped to solve part of the "natural gas curse", it will have more confidence in confronting Russia in the future. At least, Europe has just stood on the opposite side of Russia and acted side by side with the United States.From this perspective, the United States is also optimistic about its success, allowing Europe to take the lead. From a deeper perspective, within its own alliance, the United States is most worried about Germany rather than France. Supporting France's high-profile actions is also to suppress Germany to a certain extent.

In fact, Dr. Brzezinski, the former US Presidential Security Advisor, has written clearly about this point.The grandness and meticulousness of the US strategic chess game is amazing! Brzezinski pointed out that France not only seeks to play a major political role in the unification of Europe, but also sees itself as the core of a group of Mediterranean-North African countries with common concerns.France must retain a major geopolitical territory within its sphere of influence, or at least a territory that must be prevented from being dominated by a country more powerful than France. ① I can't help but sigh that the Americans have analyzed it too thoroughly.

This means that France will be more active when it comes to unrest in North Africa.Of course, in terms of North African interests and the chess game, the United States and France were on the same page—the difference was that everything France did was under the American chess game. Obviously, on the Libyan issue, Europe and the United States are converging. The turmoil in Libya is different from other countries in that the anti-government forces in Libya suddenly rose. The anti-government forces not only took control of many cities and most of the oil facilities in Libya in a short period of time, they even shot down a government fighter jet on February 28. .Such combat effectiveness would be impossible without the hidden support of the West.Western countries will actively support the reactionaries so that they can have more influence in the newly formed government in the future.

It is conceivable that Western countries will never let go of this opportunity.Gaddafi must either compromise with the opposition, resolve the civil war peacefully, or quell the turmoil in the short term (both of which are difficult to achieve in Libya), otherwise, the United States, which puts Libya on the chessboard, and France, which has more interests in Libya The western developed countries will inevitably form a group to help him go to the dead end-no matter from the perspective of ideology, values ​​or self-interest, they will not let go of this opportunity. At the beginning, Western countries allowed Gaddafi to suppress the opposition without reacting violently. In fact, they gave Gaddafi enough time to smear his image, because the developed countries need one condition-the anger of the people can only be supported by the support of this anger. Only then can they use force against Libya.Don't forget that Western countries are basically small governments, and the government must be careful to follow the will of the people.

Western developed countries will definitely do their best to get rid of Gaddafi this time - this time it is "robbing money and sex" in the true sense. According to the "Global Times" report on March 3, 2011, through the seizure of Gaddafi's family assets by various countries, it is known that Gaddafi has incalculable and amazing wealth.The assets of the Gaddafi family seized by the United States alone amounted to US$30 billion, US$2.4 billion in Canada, US$1.7 billion in Austria, and US$1 billion in the United Kingdom. Gaddafi sent money to the United States, the United Kingdom and other Western countries, and the Western countries used the money to support Gaddafi's opposition, which indirectly meant that Gaddafi hired killers to assassinate himself. How ironic!

When Gaddafin would rather throw shells than distribute wealth to the people, it means that when the flames of anger burn the sky, no one will believe in words -- no matter how vivid it is. Once the Western countries decide to take action against Libya, they will start with setting up a no-fly zone as they did against Iraq.Therefore, as long as they decide to set up a no-fly zone in Libya, it means that the gun aimed at Gaddafi has been loaded, and all that remains is to pull the trigger. In addition, we should pay special attention to one point: the United States will do its best to drive apart the Arab countries through the chaos in the Middle East. When sanctioning Libya, the Western countries will pull in relevant Arab countries that are pro-European to act together. The result will be the disintegration of the Arab countries. In this way, when we turn to Iran in the future, we can completely remove the external obstacles and threats.

In the process, China will suffer from investments in the countries involved -- $18.8 billion in 50 large projects.Western developed countries took advantage of the turmoil in Libya and easily caused heavy damage to China's interests!This scene is very similar to the situation after the United States attacked Iraq. This shows what? If there is a macroscopic grasp of the big game, China should at least be cautious about investing in countries such as Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, and Iran, because these are the most variable parts of the big game.To put it more bluntly, they are all within the established goals of the United States and other Western developed countries, and they are pawns placed at gunpoint. Immediately after Libya, it will be the turn of another crucial country: Syria!Because it is one of the most resolute countries against Israel. At the same time, like Iran, it is also the most important supporter of Hezbollah and the PLO guerrillas.When it is Syria's turn, it means that the substantive curtain is officially opened. Writing here, I need to emphasize one point: the evolution of this trend is closely related to interests, but it does not entirely start with interests.While pursuing the maximization of interests, the United States will put the promotion and popularization of universal values ​​in a very important position, and it strives to pursue the best of both worlds-although this is indeed difficult to achieve. If we cannot understand this, we cannot really gain insight into how Americans operate. Benjamin Disraeli, a British politician and writer in the 19th century, had a famous saying: "There are no eternal friends, only eternal interests." Constantly misleading people.In fact, only eternal friends have eternal interests.Interests are important, but interests are not everything.The moral decline in China in recent years is not unrelated to the distortion of values. Interests are not the core, and China has learned a lesson.Looking back, why did the countries that China assisted in its most difficult times become ungrateful and turned against us in the end?It cannot be said that the absence of the bond of common core values ​​is not a very important reason.In today's international relations, the biggest problem or obstacle China faces is: What values ​​do you share with the other party?Many times, we only have common interests but not common core values, and the bond remains fragile. Look at the civil strife in several countries in North Africa, which one is not caused by their own internal reasons?It is they who defeat them, not the enemy.In other words, their real enemy is not outside, but inside. Only by analyzing the situation rationally can we grasp the trend and find the crux of the problem. The reason why I emphasize this point superfluously is because in China today, the theory of the supremacy of interests has become the mainstream, and people's mindset is that everything is subject to the maximization of interests.If this misunderstanding is applied to the study of international relations or the development of trends, serious mistakes will be made.Moreover, no matter whether it is a friend, an opponent, or an enemy, as long as you have been kind to China, you should keep it in your heart and treat it with gratitude.Only in this way can China have real long-term friends! When these old hardliners in the Middle East were ousted by angry people in their own country, the door of Iran was gradually opened, and Iran became more lonely.When this is over, will the gates of war be far behind? But in any case, when the chaos spread to Libya, the weapon of oil has been raised.From the moment the unrest in Libya began, oil was on an upward trajectory.And its future trend depends on the direction of the big chess game.As turmoil spreads from North Africa to the Gulf, resources such as oil will "return the king". Notes: ① (US) Zbigniew Brzezinski. The Grand Chessboard: The Primacy of the United States and Its Geostrategy. Translated by the China Institute of International Studies. Shanghai People's Publishing House, 2007