Chapter 20 The door to the opening of the second quarter of the big chess game

When many people turn their attention to the Korean Peninsula, they ignore the real point of the sword.I pointed out in my blog post: "At the time of the most intense confrontation between North Korea and South Korea or a few years before this, I concluded that the North Korea and South Korea war would not ignite, because, in the grand chessboard, North Korea and South Korea are closer to Mingxiu than the Middle East. The plank road crosses the old warehouse secretly. Of course, it is also determined. Democracy is the trend of the times and the aspiration of the people. However, the fit with the nodes of the new cycle means that the intensity of the trend cannot be ignored."

The Middle East, an energy gathering place that affects the whole body, is the seven inches of the world. There is no place where turmoil is as worrying and worrying as the Middle East. The Middle East is the door to the opening of the big chess game, and it is also the place where the chaos begins.To understand the future trend of China, one must understand the development trend of the Middle East. The Middle East is the most crucial link in the grand chess game.After reading this chapter carefully, many superficial games and internal connections will gradually become clear.This book is analyzed step by step according to the evolution of the big chess game.

This is the Middle East played by the big chess game, and it is a transparent Middle East. Why the Middle East? In addition to the incomparable resource advantages and important strategic location in the Middle East, there is another equally important factor - the issue of values.This is what I deeply realized in my research.For the United States, universal values ​​often outweigh interests; of course, more often than not, values ​​are also linked to interests.Wouldn't it be easier for the United States to invade Canada if it was purely for profit, if it was only for the competition for oil and other resources?If you can't put aside the limitations of your interests, you can't really gain insight into the world.The interest analysis method must first go beyond the limitations of the interests themselves.

The impact of the situation in the Middle East on oil prices is very direct. In June 2008, when the international oil price was around US$140, I made it clear that the oil price would fall below US$50 in the future in an interview with a reporter from CCTV's "Oriental Time and Space". In March 2009, I began to look at high oil prices, because the cycle has changed, and in the cycle after the switch, oil prices will undoubtedly rise.I think the era of low oil prices is over, and the oil prices of more than 30 dollars and more than 40 dollars will never be seen again!Oil prices will soon break through $70 and reach a line of $70 to $80 (every time the oil price reaches a line, it means that the target has changed. Below $70 is aimed at Russia and other oil-producing countries, especially Russia, while above $70 100 US dollars, aimed at oil-consuming countries such as China).

At the beginning of November 2009, I emphasized again in my speeches and articles that the international oil price will break through 100 US dollars by the end of 2010.The later trend and my forecast were two months apart, the Brent crude oil April contract broke through $100/barrel on January 31, 2011, and the US crude oil futures April contract broke through $100 in February 2011 . The chaos in the Middle East is related to oil prices, but this time it is only laying the groundwork for the future. The role of this chaos in the big chess game will be analyzed in detail next. The chaos in the Middle East began with people’s dissatisfaction with the system, such as serious inflation, widening gap between rich and poor, and unsmooth channels for people’s livelihood demands. Brewing.The economic downturn and rising unemployment after the subprime mortgage crisis have ignited the power of freedom and democracy flowing in people's blood.

If we say that the chaos in the Middle East started in the United States, then why the United States can successfully disrupt the situation is worthy of our deep thinking. One thing must be understood first: After the chaos in the Middle East, it will be replaced by a democratic regime that is closer to the values ​​of the United States and other Western countries, which will be beneficial to open the door to war in the future.To put it more bluntly, it has removed important obstacles for future military wars.Perhaps, Iran is more aware of the significance of this change. Moreover, no matter how the chaos in the Middle East develops, there is a general context:

First, from North African countries to the Gulf countries, gradually approaching Iran, the terminal is Iran.These countries will have many things in common, for example, they are all oil exporters. Second, from countries that export less oil to China, gradually extend to countries that export more oil to China, and the terminal point is Saudi Arabia.Of course, as Saudi Arabia is one of the most important allies of the United States, the United States will adopt another strategy, because the key point of its strategy is the target of oil sales, and it is not difficult for Saudi Arabia to change the target of oil sales.

Third, the chaos in the Middle East is unfolding in countries that have participated in the "Middle East War".When these countries changed hands due to turmoil and established democratic regimes similar to Western systems, Iran's peripheral support forces were completely stripped away, and Iran was completely exposed-this is very important.With the current level of development of military weapons and the development of the current military power, Israel simply cannot afford to fight a war in the Middle East, because it cannot avoid heavy casualties of its own.The United States and Israel want to attack Iran. This is the biggest concern and worry. What the United States has to do is to eliminate this worry and make it safer to attack Iran in the future through the color revolution.At least, the turbulence creates a stable rear -- this is of course for the United States and Israel.

It is worth noting that all of these countries were preceded by problems of rising prices, especially of food, or of food shortages—the importance of which will be mentioned later. At this point, it is necessary for us to understand the concept of the Middle East, because the Middle East referred to in this book follows the division in international relations, including several countries in North Africa. First of all, I want to emphasize one point: when dealing with the intricate international relations, to achieve a certain goal, war is the last resort, not the best one.If the goal is to unravel the turmoil in the Middle East, then civil strife is a shortcut.

When the situation between North Korea and South Korea attracted the attention of the world, an inconspicuous spark burst out and ignited a flame.This is the Tunisian riots. Tunisia's economy is not in bad shape. In 2007, it ranked 29th in the world in the Davos World Economic Forum's global comprehensive competitiveness list, ranking first in Africa and Arab countries. But why were the riots in Tunisia in the first place? Tunisia's weakness is very obvious - its dependence on the EU is very high.Among Tunisia's total imports and exports in 2005, only the EU's France, Italy, and Germany accounted for 58.1% of Tunisia's exports and 63.9% of its imports.

Therein lies the subtlety. When the euro is attacked and everyone in the EU is in danger, the countries most dependent on the EU will suddenly lose their support. The European Union is weighed down by concerns that the situation in Tunisia will continue to deteriorate. On February 14, 2011, the European Union announced that it would provide Tunisia with 258 million euros ($348 million) in aid by 2013, of which 17 million euros ($22.9 million) would be provided immediately. Unrest in Tunisia has sparked a massive influx of refugees to Italy.Italy called on EU countries to change their immigration policy response and asked the European Commission to provide at least 100 million euros in support. The chaos in Tunisia has increased the EU's burden from two aspects and brought a drag on the EU.On the one hand, there are relief funds, on the other hand, difficult problems such as refugees. What's more, the chaos is opening the door to an oil war.This is an effect that can also be achieved by non-war means. Starting from Tunisia, the chaos spread to Egypt, Algeria, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya, etc., and spread to many Arab countries. The chaos in the Middle East is a gradual process, like a maze, the deeper you go, the colder it is, and the more wonderful it is. This is a hidden world, but it is exposed to your intellect. When the European Union announced the rescue of Tunisia and the riots in Tunisia were removed from the eyes of the world, another bigger drywood was lit - Egypt. Like a baton, time is almost seamlessly connected. In the entire Middle East, Egypt's importance is unparalleled.In the famous Middle East wars in modern times, Egypt played the leading role in the first four Middle East wars and was the undisputed main force.In the Middle East, no matter whether it is war or peace, Egypt cannot be separated. And now, Egyptians need change. Egypt has a population of 80 million, 60% of whom are under the age of 30, the unemployment rate among young people exceeds 50%, and 40% of the people live on less than $2 a day. ②When you are unemployed, you are most afraid of inflation. Unfortunately, this time, the Egyptians encountered severe inflation.According to the International Monetary Fund, Egypt's inflation rate in 2010 was 11.7%. ③This has become an irresistible and powerful driving force for mass demonstrations. The protests of the Egyptian people came to an end after Mubarak stepped down.But Egypt is not the real enemy of the United States, and Mubarak is not someone the United States must overthrow.But the next one is completely different. Notes: ① The Middle East is a land of two oceans (Atlantic and Indian Oceans), three continents (Asia, Europe, Africa) and five seas (Caspian Sea, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and Arabian Sea). From the 16th to the 17th century, when European colonists colonized eastward, they divided the geographic distance from Europe into the Near East, Middle East, and Far East.After World War II, the term Near East was replaced by "Middle East", and the term is often used interchangeably.The Middle East referred to in this book follows the traditional definition. ②Egyptian government bans public demonstrations and assemblies. The Beijing News, 2011-1-27 ③Egypt raises salaries for civil servants to appease dissatisfaction. Beijing Times, 2011-2-9