Chapter 19 The first section is not the North and South Koreas that are dangerous

In this part, we will start from the international chessboard and gradually transition to the perspective of China's issues.Because China is also a link in the big chess game, and it is an important link.If you don't look at China's issues from an international perspective, you will always see incomplete content.When looking at China's issues from an international perspective, everything is clear. Especially in the Middle East, the connection with China is very important. It is not only the vital gate of China's energy, but also the most important part of the evolution of the chess game.Therefore, its situation is more important to the evolution of future trends.

In fact, when this chess game just started to move, China has already deeply felt the crisis and pressure. All of this is just the beginning. The evolution of the big chess game has always been controlled by a mysterious force. Behind a series of weird events, there is a grand strategic plan.No country can stay out of the way. We must be soberly aware that the subprime mortgage crisis is a major crisis, and its destructiveness cannot disappear in a short period of time. Therefore, under the surface of gradual restoration of calm, there are blood and fire intertwined. magma. As a weak player in the financial war, China may not be able to launch sniper operations abroad, but it must protect itself and be prepared to deal with it.Because the target of sniping is getting closer and closer to China.

First of all, it must be emphasized that the game between countries is a phenomenon that has existed all the time since ancient times. This game is not only a comparison of power, but also a display of wisdom.Any country has the possibility of winning in the game, and also has the probability of losing in the game.A truly powerful country is good at reflecting on its own problems and making timely corrections to make itself stronger and wait for opportunities to defeat its opponents.Therefore, in the entire grand chess game, the real harmonious coexistence stems from the balance of power after the game, rather than some illusory wishful thinking.

In the game of great powers, China should abandon the traditional role of the weak and play the game with wisdom, at least it should not replace the wisdom of fighting back with simple hatred.In many cases, hatred is the easiest choice, because it can maximize self-evasion.In currency wars, therefore, hatred is really a sign of cowardice and self-deception, an emotional reflection of putting oneself in an inferior position to your opponent. I firmly believe that hatred should be replaced by rational response.Currency war is not a bayonet fight, but a game of wisdom and determination.Of course, more importantly, we must recognize the chess game. When the opponent raises a chess piece, we must know the next step, the next two steps... the direction after N steps, and even the finale.

Only those who have insight into the future can decide the ending. In the chess game played by the United States, the United States has the hope of winning, and its opponents also have the possibility of winning. Now back to the topic. After the euro sniper war, the United States began to forcefully suppress the appreciation of the renminbi.But at this moment, the situation between North Korea and South Korea suddenly became tense, which made many people worry that a war would start soon. It should be said that this unexpected incident has misled many people. When they turned their attention to North Korea and South Korea, they ignored the changes that are quietly taking place in the Middle East.

Although the confrontation between North Korea and South Korea has escalated many times, the possibility of a large-scale war between the two is almost impossible.Years ago, I wrote publicly or expressed this view in public speeches.Because although North Korea and South Korea are also an integral part of the big chess game, it is not their turn yet. In the big chess game, the importance of time nodes is incomparable.The trend judgment that has lost time has almost no guiding significance. On November 23, 2010, North Korea and South Korea shelled Yeonpyeong Island. War seemed to be imminent, and the international community was worried.I wrote an article again, believing that the two sides must choose restraint in the end, and the haze of war over the Korean peninsula will slowly dissipate.I have always maintained my strong judgment style, and although this seemingly unquestionable point of view has been questioned and criticized by some people, I still insist on my own opinion.Because, in my mind, the big chess game is very clear. If my interpretation of the chess game is wrong, then it should be wrong from the beginning-this is also a great advantage of trend research. Judgment, and make adjustments and corrections based on new factors - in reality, the trend is being verified step by step according to the route I deduced.

Smoke billows above Yeonpyeong Island near the disputed "Northern Limit Line" between South Korea and North Korea on November 23, 2010.On the same day, North Korea and South Korea exchanged bombardments near the "Northern Limit Line". After the arrival of New Year's Day in 2011, North Korea and South Korea's statements made even those who doubted my judgment no longer worry about the resumption of war on the Korean Peninsula. On the first day of 2011, against the backdrop of continued tension on the Korean peninsula, the three major North Korean newspapers "Rodong Sinmun", "Korean People's Army Daily" and "Youth Vanguard" published a joint editorial, but released an obvious message of relaxation, calling for Lift the confrontation with South Korea as soon as possible, emphasizing the necessity of dialogue between the two countries.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak also softened his stance, expressing his hope to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through the Six-Party Talks in 2011, and calling for inter-Korean dialogue.In his New Year speech, Lee Myung-bak emphasized that in the new year, he believes that South Korea can achieve peace on the peninsula and continue to develop its economy. After a period of turmoil, the two Koreas discovered that neither has the capital to fight, and it is more affordable to develop the economy.why?Why does the North-Korean crisis not lead to war now?What kind of secret is hidden in it?

The simplest answer is: the time node has not yet arrived. As far as the new cycle is concerned, in the grand chess game set by the United States, the importance of the Middle East is second to none and irreplaceable.In other words, even if the North and South Korea have a showdown, it must be after the chaos in the Middle East.This is the basic layout of the big chess game.Without such a macroscopic understanding, it is impossible to clearly judge international trends. Now let's analyze it-this process may be helpful to friends who want to study trends. After the North Korean shelling incident, the U.S. Navy sent the "George Washington" nuclear-powered aircraft carrier ① battle group to the Yellow Sea to participate in military exercises with South Korea's "King Sejong the Great" Aegis destroyer and other ships and anti-submarine aircraft.

On November 29, 2010, the U.S. Navy sent an additional "Carl Vinson" nuclear-powered aircraft carrier battle group into the Western Pacific.The two major US aircraft carrier battle groups are cruising in the Asia-Pacific waters at the same time, which is very rare in non-war periods. After the North Korean shelling incident, the international community is worried about the situation in Northeast Asia.Pessimistic arguments about the imminent start of the war flooded the major media.Some military experts even began to deduce the development situation after the outbreak of war. The article I published on the blog made the following analysis: South Korea and North Korea will not really start a war.After the tense confrontation between North Korea and South Korea, another big chess game has been established.The United States unites with Japan and South Korea to target China and North Korea, and joins hands with Europe and Islamic countries to target Iran.These two goal lines have been very clearly established.Mainly economic sanctions against Iran, supplemented by military threats; same as above for North Korea; imminent currency wars, oil wars, and food wars against China②--Besides the sharpening military deployment, there is another hidden A war without smoke.

From the perspective of the United States, North Korea is not a "troubleshooter" that particularly touches its interests. Whether it is from the perspective of geographical location or international relations, North Korea's role is limited to a small range.This is one of them. In recent years, the United States has been the country that has used the most troops abroad. However, since the Iraq War, this practice has been questioned in the United States and there are many constraints. The United States will never dare to use force easily. Let me give you an example.Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate in economics, conducted "accounting after autumn" on the US Iraq war. He wrote in the book: New data show that the total cost of the Iraq war may even exceed our estimated $3 trillion. .The economic consequences of this war were far more serious than we expected.War is a challenge for every nation, but especially for one already deeply indebted.If the government chooses to print money, it will lead to inflation and lead to strong resistance from the people. Raising taxes or cutting spending is also not politically feasible.So how do you go to war without cutting spending, raising taxes, and avoiding inflation?That is to borrow a large amount, borrowing from foreign governments, mainly from China.The U.S. government's deficit is ballooning, and the Chinese government's holdings of U.S. Treasury debt are increasing.This facilitates the domestic babble of war myths: there is no economic cost to going to war.The truth is, the economic cost is extremely high and will be paid for by generations of taxpayers.The new US administration feels that in many ways it is handcuffed by the aftermath of the Iraq war.From an economic point of view, the huge fiscal deficit left by the Iraq war has limited its ability to activate the domestic economy. ③ Obviously, the United States will not use force easily, no matter in terms of economic costs, strategic considerations, or the US's big chess game.To deal with North Korea, there is no need for the United States to use force -- at least until the game changes.Taking measures to cause civil unrest in North Korea is the best option for the United States.This is the second. If the United States fights North Korea, the United States has a huge advantage. The question is, what will happen after the fight is over?Will the lessons of Iraq be repeated?If the U.S. military suffered more casualties during the occupation than during the war, wouldn't Obama want to repeat the mistakes of Bush.This is the third. After defeating North Korea, is there any reasonable reason for the heavy troops deployed by the United States due to the tense situation between North and South Korea to continue to exist?This is the fourth and more important point. Obviously, even if the interests of other relevant countries were not taken into account, at least it was not in the interests of the United States to attack North Korea at that time. The interests of the United States in the big chess game were first and foremost the Middle East. Intense, often emotionally unstable because of unsatisfied pursuits. From the perspective of North Korea and South Korea, no one dares to easily start a war between them. From North Korea's point of view: North Korea's standing armed force is the People's Army, which is divided into three branches: land, sea, and air, with 1.055 million active troops.Among them, the army has 923,000 people and has 20 armies (including 2 artillery corps).The North Korean navy has about 47,000 personnel.There are 2 fleets, the East Sea Fleet and the West Sea Fleet.The North Korean Air Force has 85,000 personnel, organized into 6 aviation divisions, and a total of 607 combat aircraft.In addition, North Korea also has 189,000 security and border guards (Ministry of Social Security), and about 3.5 million Red Guards for Workers and Peasants. Although North Korea has a large army, it will not easily start a war: First, weapons and equipment are far behind the United States and South Korea.Western countries have long implemented a blockade policy against North Korea, and it is difficult for North Korea to obtain advanced military technology and weaponry through this channel.Moreover, North Korea's economic development is backward, and it is unable to purchase advanced weapons and equipment from Russia and other countries.Take the navy as an example. Although the total number of North Korean ships has reached more than 800, there are only a handful of large ships with ocean-going capabilities, and it is even difficult to perform tasks when encountering relatively large waves.Moreover, due to geographical and political constraints, North Korea's warships cannot reach the west coast from the east coast, and the east and west cannot meet each other. This forced North Korea to establish two independently operating fleets, and its combat capabilities were restricted and constrained.For another example, many of the tanks used by the North Korean Army were produced in the 1950s, and more than 60% of the fighters were also "MiG" fighters manufactured between 1949 and 1953, and none of them could be used for night combat. Second, North Korea's economic development is backward and food supply is tight. Third, there is a shortage of energy and insufficient foreign aid. North Korea mainly imports oil from China, Russia and Iran. Due to insufficient funds, the amount of oil imports is limited. The amount of imports fell by more than 70% at the peak, and domestic energy resources are seriously insufficient.North Korea is well aware of its weakness, and out of safety considerations, it replaced its largest thermal power plant, the Beicang Thermal Power Plant, with a Chinese-made boiler that only needs to burn coal, replacing the original oil-coal mixed-fired boiler to reduce Dependence on imported oil.This is because North Korea's South Pyongan Province (Shunchuan, Dechuan, Beichang, Jiangdong and northern regions) is relatively rich in coal resources. In addition, South Korea is backed by developed countries such as the United States and Japan, and both the United States and Japan have the tradition and experience of using troops abroad.Behind North Korea is only China, while Russia has always had a tradition of supremacy of interests.China, on the other hand, wholeheartedly hopes to maintain a peaceful internal and external development environment, and it is impossible to go too far into peripheral affairs. After all, China's own issues such as the Diaoyu Islands have not yet been resolved. These current conditions determine that North Korea cannot afford a war. From Korea's point of view: South Korea has an army of 560,000 people, organized into 3 group armies, 11 armies, 50 divisions, and 21 brigades.It has 2,130 main battle tanks and 3,500 armored personnel carriers.South Korea has a navy of 67,000 people and 225 ships of various types, and its overall strength ranks among the top in Asia.South Korea owns the "world's highest level" Aegis destroyer, and is the fifth country to have an Aegis warship after the United States, Japan, Spain, and Norway.South Korea has an air force of 63,000 people and 538 combat aircraft. On May 24, 2010, the South Korean army held a military exercise in Yangkou, which is close to the demilitarized zone between South Korea and North Korea. In addition, the United States has 36,520 troops stationed in South Korea.Among them, there are 27,200 in the Army, 300 in the Navy, and 8,920 in the Air Force, equipped with 90 fighter jets. The overall combat strength of South Korea and the United States exceeds that of North Korea, and South Korea's economic strength is far beyond that of North Korea.But does this mean that South Korea dares to provoke a war? The actual situation may be that South Korea is more afraid or even more afraid of war. Although North Korea's overall military strength is not as good as South Korea's, its artillery is lingering.According to public information, North Korea has 3,500 towed guns, 4,500 self-propelled guns, 8,100 mortars, 2,600 rocket launchers, 1,700 recoilless guns, 4,800 anti-aircraft guns, and 3,000 fixed-position guns.Bechtor, a former official of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, once predicted: "On the first day of a possible war, the potential destructive power of North Korean artillery alone can bring South Korea's political, commercial and cultural center Seoul back to the 1980s. "④ In this regard, Americans and Koreans have a very clear understanding. On April 22, 2009, Walter Sharp, commander of the U.S. Forces in South Korea, also said that North Korea's 180,000 special forces and more than 13,000 cannons aimed at Seoul are the most feared, both of which are the largest in the world.If North Korea decides to attack, "it could rain bullets on Seoul today". About 1,100 of the 13,000 artillery pieces that General Sharp said were aimed at Seoul were 170mm long-range self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers.Among them, the 240mm M-1985 multiple-barreled rocket launcher and the 240mm M-1991 multiple-barreled rocket launcher have a range of 70 kilometers, while Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is only 50 kilometers away from the military demarcation line between the two Koreas.Therefore, whenever there is a fierce conflict between North Korea and South Korea, North Korea will always "kindly" remind South Korea that Seoul is only 50 kilometers away from the 38th parallel! The deployment of North Korean artillery units has two main characteristics: one is that they are concentrated at the front of the demilitarized zone and near the demilitarized zone; They are either natural caves that have been transformed to store artillery, or man-made tunnels, which makes it difficult for the South Korean and American coalition forces to eliminate the long-range artillery threat they face in a short period of time. ⑤ In view of concerns about North Korean artillery, since 2003, all US troops stationed in South Korea near the military demarcation line on the Korean peninsula have withdrawn to the south of the Han River, and since the end of 2004, the South Korean army has independently undertaken the 246-kilometer military Defense of the demarcation line. The purpose of the U.S. military in doing this is to withdraw beyond the range of North Korean artillery to ensure its own safety.It is also from the completion of the withdrawal that the United States has become tougher on the Korean issue.The subtleties in it are self-evident. South Korea is well aware of the attitude of the United States.Fearing that the U.S. troops stationed in South Korea would detonate the war on the peninsula, South Korea and the United States reached an agreement in 2007 when South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun was in power. Korean army. From a purely technical point of view, if the United States and South Korea cannot eliminate the threat of North Korea's artillery, it will be difficult for the Korean War to really start.Of course, the United States and South Korea can gradually solve technical problems over time, but it is conceivable that the difficulties and obstacles are so great. Among the countries that have an important impact on the situation between North Korea and South Korea, North Korea, South Korea, China, and Russia do not want a war between North Korea and South Korea, and the United States does the same, but Japan is different.Because, it wants the fisherman to benefit from it!Through the mutual consumption of North Korea and South Korea, it will further save its leadership in Asia, and at the same time, better fight against China. On December 14, 2010, the Japanese government held a security meeting and approved the budget for the five-year "Medium-Term Defense Force Preparation Plan" to be implemented starting in 2011. On December 17, Japan approved the new "Defense Program Outline" program.The number of Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force submarines will increase from 6 to 22, and the number of Aegis frigates will increase from 4 to 6.Japan's new "National Defense Program Outline" "will shift the focus of national defense to respond to China's threat", "emphasize strengthening the Japan-US alliance and cooperation", "strengthen defense cooperation with China's neighboring countries" -- this is the first time Japan has changed the direction of its national defense strategy in more than 40 years . Japan's goal is very clear: join hands with all neighboring countries against China. Japan's wishful thinking is to fan the flames when the situation between North Korea and South Korea is tense, so that the United States will station heavy troops in the Yellow Sea area to contain China, while Japan can continue to make small moves on issues such as the Diaoyu Islands.In fact, Japan is also implementing its own plan step by step: the Japanese government approved the inclusion of the Diaoyu Islands as an "inherent territory" in textbooks; revised the defense outline to clearly include the Diaoyu Islands in its defense circle; and set up a "Diaoyu Islands Development Day" in Ishigaki City, Japan. ; Japanese lawmakers inspected the Diaoyu Islands from the air; Japanese "Okinawa people" illegally landed on the islands affiliated to the Diaoyu Islands; Japan is the most active fan of the North-Korean situation.It deliberately emphasizes the theory of North Korea threat and China threat in order to obtain greater support from the United States for its occupation of the Diaoyu Islands in military and economic terms.At the same time, strive for more favorable conditions for future negotiations with Russia on the four northern islands.Japan is very clear that in the absence of war, the so-called US-Japan alliance is of little significance.Japan will become the most indispensable partner only when the United States deeply perceives threats and pressures, or when it wants to realize its own strategic intentions.During the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea, the U.S.’s change in Japan’s positioning has convinced the Japanese that as long as they can muddy the situation between North Korea and South Korea, they will have an opportunity to take advantage of it. Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara Therefore, whenever there is a conflict between North Korea and South Korea, Japan always clamors the most vigorously.Even if there is no conflict between North Korea and South Korea, as soon as North Korea conducts a missile test, Japan will immediately cling to it and make a big fuss in order to profit from the chaos.Japan knows very well that the more serious the confrontation between North Korea and South Korea and the more intensified the conflict, the more beneficial it will be. At the same time, Japan took the opportunity to form an alliance with South Korea. On January 3, 2011, the Korean "Daily Economic News" published a New Year written interview with Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara⑥.This report quoted Maehara's "words" as saying: "North Korea's provocative acts of force pose a threat to the stability and peace of the Korean Peninsula and even the entire East Asia. Therefore, (Japan) hopes to form an alliance with South Korea in the field of security guarantees. "On January 10, Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa held talks with South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young in Seoul.The two sides agreed that "due to North Korea's military provocations and other destabilizing factors in the region, Japan and South Korea will cooperate more closely".Japan and South Korea have agreed to start talks on sharing intelligence and providing each other with fuel, food and other supplies for each other's forces.The Associated Press stated that if the agreement is signed, it will be the first military agreement between Japan and South Korea since the end of Japan's brutal colonial rule on the Korean peninsula in 1945. It's just that Japan's image in the minds of Koreans is really bad, and this kind of alliance has been strongly opposed by the people in South Korea. Although North Korea and South Korea are afraid of war, China and the United States and other countries with stronger interests do not want war. It is difficult for the Japanese to succeed in their attempts. However, for this country that has caused great disasters to the Chinese nation and has never seriously repented, The Chinese should still be vigilant at all times. Notes: ① It is one of the largest aircraft carriers in the world, with a displacement of 98,000 tons. The dispatch of the "George Washington" nuclear-powered aircraft carrier battle group often attracts close attention from the international community. ②Why are these three items listed here?Because oil-dollar-food is a trinity relationship, and it is the advantage that the United States has absolute control. ③(US) Joseph E. Stiglitz, Linda J. Biermans. The Three Trillion Dollar War. Translated by Lu Changchong. Renmin University of China Press, 2010 ④Russian expert: North Korea can wipe out one million people in South Korea without nuclear weapons. Global Times, 2009-6-13 ⑤North Korea’s 10,000 cannons aimed at South Korea’s capital, deploying soldiers to highlight surprise attack strategy. World News, 2009-4-29 ⑥ Seiji Maehara is known in Japan as the "Blair of Japan" and is the most potential candidate for the next prime minister. On March 4, 2011, Seiji Maehara broke the "political donation scandal": In April 2010, he accepted a political donation of 200,000 yen from a Korean woman in Japan. Maehara admitted that he had accepted 50,000 yen. Expressed willingness to return and revise relevant income and expenditure reports. On March 3, Seiji Maehara announced his resignation.Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan accepted Maehara Seiji's resignation request on the same day.It can also be seen from this how strict Japan's requirements for politicians' incorruptibility are.Many domestic nationalists cheered Maehara's resignation, but I feel sorry: Maehara's toughness can also make the Chinese people wake up, make the Chinese people face up to the problem, and put on a foreign minister who is friendly to China on the surface. will relax again.For our nation, which lacks a sense of crisis, Seiji Maehara's resignation made China lose a mirror.