Chapter 22 Section 4 America's Next Goal

In the big chess game, Iran has already stood under the target of the United States.Iran is the number one target of the United States, almost everyone knows that.However, judging from the strategic planning of the United States, it is not necessary to use troops.In fact, using troops is the next best thing to do.Subduing others without fighting is the best policy. Since the pro-American Pahlavi regime was taken hostage by the Communist Party and the US embassy in Iran, the hatred between the United States and Iran has been deeply buried in the hearts of Iranians and Americans. Moreover, this pain and rift did not disappear from people's memory with the passage of time.

The bigger problem is that Iran has established a state-religious country since 1979, and there are fundamental and irreconcilable contradictions with the United States in terms of values ​​and beliefs. Moreover, if the United States wants to open a channel to contain Russia from Azerbaijan, it must also resolve Iran, and Iran has rich oil and natural gas reserves.The latest data show that: Iran's oil reserves are 150.31 billion barrels, ranking third in the world; natural gas reserves are 33.1 trillion cubic meters, ranking second in the world. What does Azerbaijan have to do with the big chess game of the United States?

Former US Presidential Security Adviser Dr. Brzezinski pointed out: Azerbaijan's location makes it a geopolitical pivot.It acts like a "cork" controlling access to the "bottles" containing the rich resources of the Caspian Sea Basin and Central Asia.An independent, Turkic-speaking Azerbaijan prevented Russia from monopolizing access to the region, thereby depriving Russia of decisive political influence in Central Asian policy. "An independent Azerbaijan could serve as the West's gateway to the energy-rich Caspian Basin and Central Asia." Iran, like Russia, has become an important obstacle restricting Azerbaijan's connection with the West.

If Iran is taken down, all communication channels between Azerbaijan and the West will be opened, and all the Central Asian chess games of the United States will be played alive, and they will be able to control the initiative in an absolute sense. So, does this conflict with Russia's interests again? In contrast, Russia is more worried about the growing influence of radical religious forces.Brzezinski has said: "The process of Islamization may also infect Muslims in Russia...Muslims in Russia account for about 13% of the Russian population. They will almost inevitably be demanding the preservation of their unique religion." become more aggressive in terms of rights and political identities."

Therefore, the spread of extreme religious complexes like those in Chechnya is even more worrying for Russia. That is to say, taking down Iran is a very important goal from the perspective of the United States' strategic layout, and Russia, one of the obstacles to realizing this strategic goal, also has a grudge against Iran, which rules out the possibility of an alliance between the two sex. Therefore, if it is necessary to determine the occurrence of war, judging from the current situation, the Middle East is the first choice for this place.Iran is the clearest target, and to fight Iran, chaos in the Middle East is inevitable.

Why? If the United States attacks Iran, Iran will definitely attack Israel, just like the practice of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The purpose is to create confrontation between Israel and the entire Arab world and win more help and support. We know that the development of modern military weapons and military power is not what it used to be. Once a war starts, for a small country like Israel, it simply cannot bear that kind of huge casualties.In other words, as long as the United States and Israel attack Iran, there must be no mistakes, and they must be 100% sure. Therefore, before attacking Iran, the United States must first settle North Africa and the Gulf countries, especially the countries that have participated in the "Middle East War".As I mentioned before, if you compare the countries that have actually removed their leaders from power to achieve regime change, you will find that they are all countries that have participated in the "Middle East War". Libya and Syria, which will soon be its turn, are even more so.

Among them, Libya and Syria are particularly important. Pulling out such "thorns" is just an intermediate station leading to the destination, and the terminal station is Iran. Judging from this process, the US plan to strike Iran is actually already underway. If we go one step further and judge the start of the war, then the start of the battle will generally not start directly with the confrontation between the United States and Iran, but it is more likely that after the threat of radical organizations in Libya, Syria and Lebanon is wiped out, it will gradually begin. close to Iran.Of course, the United States must also destroy the Osama bin Laden forces entrenched in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Otherwise, even if the U.S. government wants to attack Iran, the American people will not be able to support it.

Therefore, once the United States does its best to capture Osama bin Laden, or once there is a war between Israel (with the United States behind it) and militant groups in Lebanon, it means that a war against Iran is imminent. One thing must be explained: Iran has always claimed that the purpose of developing nuclear energy is to deal with the future energy crisis and to use it peacefully.This statement is not false. Iran is also facing the crisis of energy depletion in the future.Stephen Lieber wrote in the book "The Coming Energy Crash": "Iran's annual economic growth reaches 6%. At this rate, by 2013, Iran will transform from an oil exporter to a net oil importer. "

This situation is a bit unexpected to many people, but it is a realistic dilemma facing Iran. Without understanding this, it's hard to decipher what's behind it. Although Iran is the world's second largest exporter of crude oil, its proven oil reserves account for 10% of the world's total reserves, ranking fifth in the world, and its proven natural gas reserves account for 16% of the world's total reserves, second only to Russia. second.However, Iran's oil refining equipment and technology are seriously backward, and the domestic supply of refined oil, especially gasoline, is very tight.Iran has to import a large amount of gasoline to meet domestic demand, and the import volume has accounted for 40% of its total domestic consumption.This exposed the weakness of Iran's oil industry.

In order to defuse the future energy crisis and the huge pressure brought by the economic sanctions led by the United States, Iran has taken corresponding measures: One is to strive to increase refining capacity.Iran has more than once made self-sufficiency in refined oil products its own plan and goal, and while this goal is rarely accomplished, the Iranians will soon replace the old one with a new one to keep hope alive. The second is to increase oil prices.The price of oil within the limit was raised from 1,000 riyals per liter to 4,000 riyals, or about 2.7 yuan.The price of extra oil was raised from 4,000 riyals per liter to 7,000 riyals, or about 4.7 yuan.

In addition to the above measures, is the development of nuclear energy. Therefore, Iran does not have many better options for developing nuclear energy. At least from Iran's own point of view, excluding the safety of nuclear energy, Iran's choice can be said to be farsighted.What's more, the development of nuclear energy does help the development of nuclear weapons. Japan is a typical example, and it is also the object of Iran's emulation. Japan is a nuclear power.To obtain nuclear fuel, Japan has adopted a policy called the "nuclear fuel cycle".To this end, Japan began to accumulate plutonium.Li Bin, an expert on arms control and a professor at Tsinghua University, pointed out that "plutonium can be used to generate electricity, and it can also be used to make nuclear weapons." The amount of plutonium accumulated in Japan has reached a frightening level: by 2009, Japan had enough Plutonium for 5,000 atomic bombs! To take a step back, if Japan is not preparing for the development of nuclear weapons, wouldn't this huge reserve be tantamount to self-mutilation if something goes wrong for Japan itself?Obviously, Japan's goal is very clear, to develop nuclear weapons at any time, and become a super nuclear power in a very short period of time! China must be highly vigilant against this. In fact, the international community has been questioning what is the real purpose of Japan's storage of plutonium?In the information released on May 15, 2009, a Japanese non-governmental organization called the Atomic Energy Information Center (CNIC for short) calculated how many atomic bombs could be built from the plutonium stored in Japan-if each atomic bomb It needs 8 kilograms of plutonium to calculate, and the plutonium currently stored in Japan (9 tons) can make 1,000 atomic bombs; if the plutonium stored abroad by Japan (38 tons in Europe) is added, it is enough to make 5,000 atomic bombs. Following the example of Japan, Iran vigorously develops nuclear energy, and at the same time violates the taboo of Israel and the United States.Both Israel and the United States are worried that Iran will take the opportunity to develop nuclear weapons, trigger nuclear proliferation, and lead to immeasurable consequences.At the same time, the United States is also worried that once Iran makes progress in the use of nuclear energy and reduces its dependence on traditional energy oil, then Iran will continue to play the role of a major crude oil exporter, which will continue to have an impact on international oil prices and will continue to challenge the United States. Emboldened. What the United States has to do is to abolish this influence of Iran. When the United States does things, the consistency of ideology and values ​​is more important than the interests themselves in many cases.Due to ideological antagonism, the United States cannot tolerate Iran going further in nuclear utilization.This distrust goes far beyond what economic interests alone can cover. This is one of the reasons why the United States and Iran are highly antagonistic in the use of nuclear energy.What the United States has to do is to stop Iran's efforts in nuclear energy utilization, make it miss the transition period, continue to rely on crude oil exports to maintain development, and continue to be a resource-consuming country.Only in this way will it be more in line with the national interests of the United States. Since the Iranian nuclear facilities were disclosed by the media in August 2002, the United States has continuously promoted and strengthened economic sanctions against Iran. Judging from the comparison of relevant content, not only the sanctions are more targeted, but also the areas of sanctions are getting wider , the sanctions have become increasingly severe. It is conceivable that under such severe sanctions, it is very difficult for Iran to make progress in nuclear technology. Iran also faces domestic opposition: two people were killed and several others were injured in a massive anti-government demonstration in Tehran. Obviously, for the United States, if the civil strife in Iran can trigger the change of the Iranian government and let pro-American forces take power, it is the best plan in the entire chess game! It is not difficult to imagine that with the joint efforts of the EU and the United States, the sanctions against Iran will become more and more severe. Of course, the game in the Middle East does not stop there.I have said before that if the United States and Israel are convinced that Iran is about to develop a nuclear weapon, they will launch a military strike against it at all costs.Americans always make preparations early on.In this grand chess game, the importance of another country is highlighted, and the attitude of the United States towards it determines its next plan.This country has always been pursuing the maximization of its own interests as its fundamental starting point. On the Iran issue, how will it choose? The importance of this country in the big game cannot be underestimated.It is Russia.The United States must use its interests to appease Russia if it moves Iran.The luckiest thing about the Russian nation is that they have met two of what I consider to be the four most outstanding leaders abroad: Medvedev and Putin.