Chapter 40 2. The illusion brought about by rising housing prices

Data show that as of the end of November 2008, the vacant area of ​​commercial housing across the country reached 136 million square meters.According to the 2009 macroeconomic outlook research report released by CICC, under the current transaction volume, it will take about 27 months for the existing inventory of commercial housing in 15 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Chongqing. to digest.And such a large area of ​​commercial housing is vacant, making the funds in the hands of developers increasingly tense. On the other hand, under the influence of the financial crisis, home buyers have gradually reduced large-scale consumption, and banks are also cautious about developers, which makes developers face more difficult financial pressure.So in 2009, will developers face the danger of capital chain breaking?

● Bad things come together, that is, misfortunes never come singly. ●Don't think that the real estate price depends on whether the people are rich or not. ●The freezing of the entire real estate market in 2009 was the most frightening. ●Continued results will lead to a major crisis in my country's steel and cement industries. The high housing price is due to a large amount of resources being misled into the real estate market, and because the funds are first rushed to high-end real estate, so after the price of high-end real estate rises, the price of middle and low-end real estate rises accordingly.Under this influence, it is very easy to see high-end real estate springing up like mushrooms in various places, and a large number of them are still being built.In addition, the cost of land purchase has also been rising, which has greatly increased the source of fiscal and tax revenue for local governments.Taking 2007 and 2008 as an example, this revenue alone accounted for more than 30% of local fiscal and tax revenue.

But do you know what the danger is?Please think about it, I have actually seen a crisis, but I think our government, our entrepreneurs, and our common people have not seen it yet.This crisis is the result of a large amount of resources being misdirected into the real estate market, forming a real estate bubble. The real estate bubble itself, like the stock market bubble, is a reflection of the manufacturing industry.So, again, what's the next step in the comeback?The first step must be a sharp drop in housing prices, and the second step must be a large number of closures of manufacturing companies.But our real estate agent misjudged that rising housing prices is a long-term phenomenon. Why did he misjudge it?Because many of our scholars have said that there is only one reason for the rise of real estate prices, that is, the economic development has been very successful, and the people have become richer, so they speculate in real estate, which creates a bubble in the real estate market.

In addition, real estate developers believe that there are several other reasons for the rise in housing prices, including: first, China’s population continues to grow; second, available land is getting less and less; People's demand for buildings is increasing, coupled with the success of our reform and opening up, it will make the demand even greater.Because of the above points they misjudged the situation.Misjudging this bubble phenomenon is the norm.As a result of misjudgment that the housing price bubble has become the norm, a lot of social resources have poured into this industry.Its advantage is that the fiscal revenue growth of local governments has been raised to a higher level, including land sales, including property tax.What is the greater benefit?Driven related industries, including cement, steel, profile, decoration, elevator industry and so on.Due to the construction of a large number of buildings, the demand for this aspect increased, which caused the property market to boom in 2007. For example, the elevator industry was also booming. It was not until November 2008 that there was a slight downward trend.But the situation in 2008 is still very good, do you know why?Because these supporting projects, including elevators, etc., are all flooded into this industry after building a large number of buildings.However, the real crisis of China's real estate industry today is definitely not as simple as we think. It will only happen that the people will cut off the supply after the sharp drop in housing prices, which will then reduce the government's tax revenue, or the bank will have an economic crisis.Let me tell you that these are all superficial phenomena.