Chapter 39 Chapter 8 Under the Impact of the Financial Crisis: Prospects for China's Property Market in 2009

2008 was a year of rapid turning point for the entire real estate industry.When many developers were still immersed in the "brilliant" money-making years in 2007 and couldn't extricate themselves, the real estate market took place in 2008. "Great changes".According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2008, the main economic indicators of commercial housing in the whole country slowed down or dropped.Among them, the investment in the development of commercial housing decreased, the growth of newly started area slowed down, the completed area dropped, the transaction volume fell by about 40%, and the price also adjusted by 15% - 20%.These indicators have maintained rapid growth in the past 10 years.It can be said that the main indicators have dropped significantly, making 2008 a turning point in the 10-year rapid growth of China's real estate.

So in 2009 when consumer confidence is sluggish, what new changes will happen to the real estate industry? I still remember when I talked about why housing prices in Guangdong doubled several times in 2007. From January to June 2007, the housing prices of high-end real estate in Shenzhen almost quadrupled. I often use Xiyuan in Xiangmi Lake as an example. Its price per square meter rose from 10,000 yuan to 40,000 yuan.This is unreasonable. You said that it is impossible to increase by 4 times within half a year.Moreover, according to the research results of many scholars, only about 7% of the funds for property speculation in Shenzhen in 2007 were foreign funds, and 6% of the 7% were funds from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and only 1% were foreign funds in the true sense.What about the other 93%?All are domestic capital.Where do these funds come from?What is their way of hyping the property market?How to impact housing prices?In fact, all of this has had a major impact today.I would like to invite readers to make a memory, that is, from 2006, my country's housing prices began to move around, until they reached a peak in 2007, and in 2008, like the stock market, they began to decline in an all-round way.And have you noticed that my country's property market and stock market have fallen to the same extent, and the direction and time of the decline are also similar.Why?Because the source of the impact on the property market today is the same as that of the stock market.

That is to say, since 2007, according to my analysis, the real reason for the soaring housing prices comes from the funds of the manufacturing industry. , he also went to speculate in real estate.So from 2006 to 2007, why did the investment and business environment faced by the manufacturing industry begin to deteriorate?As I mentioned in the previous chapter, the reasons include the rise of the RMB exchange rate, rising costs caused by international inflation, the introduction of the "Labor Contract Law" and misjudgment of macro-control, etc., which make the investment and business environment facing my country's manufacturing industry Rapid deterioration.The result of this deterioration is that a large amount of funds will flow out of the manufacturing industry, and then hit the property market.We have noticed a phenomenon. Since 2007, this kind of funds began to impact the real estate market. It hit high-end real estate first. After the high-end real estate prices were raised, the prices of nearby mid- and low-end real estate rose accordingly.Therefore, the real bubbles are the middle and low-end real estate, not the high-end real estate.This is why after 2008, as a result of the overall decline in housing prices, the decline in middle and low-end real estate is even more fierce. What is the reason?Because this stock of funds hit high-priced real estate and caused very serious consequences.Please think about it, what are the consequences?That is to cause real estate developers across the country to misjudge the situation.This misjudgment is very serious, and as a result, a large number of useful resources in society are misled into the real estate market.

And when I went to various places to give speeches recently, I found that when I went to the second- and third-tier cities to look, I could find many high-end real estate built there.I gave a speech in Xuzhou in December 2008, and many villas were built by the lake next to the lecture hall.I asked how much they sold it, and they actually needed 25 million? Buying a villa for 40 million yuan, I wonder who would go to Xuzhou to live in such an expensive villa, which is unimaginable.Is our country crazy, why is it like this?You said that this kind of house price will drop by 50%, and many people still can't afford it, and even if the price falls again, I can't afford a villa in Xuzhou.I'm thinking that I can't even afford it, and I wonder how many people can afford it.Our housing prices have become unaffordable, so the question is why.