Chapter 38 5. Looking to the future

At present, there are more than 1,500 listed companies in China, and the role of the capital market in the economy is becoming more and more important.A healthy and stable stock market is crucial to both enterprises and investors, all of which depend on the supervision of the securities market.Only strict supervision can effectively protect the interests of small and medium investors. We began to look forward to 2009. I don't think the share reform can solve the problem at all. You can only prevent it from getting worse. It is impossible to solve it fundamentally.Because our government gave up the best weapon in its hands at the beginning, a share of gold stocks.Now that you have given up, you have to fulfill your promise. You have to let it sell the big and small things, and the big and small things will come out. In 2009, the pressure on the stock market will be even greater.If there was a chance of a slow turnaround if there was a share of gold stocks at the beginning, this chance is gone now.However, I also hope that the China Securities Regulatory Commission can continue to use stronger means to protect the interests of small and medium shareholders in this regard.I think the strongest method is to use new regulations or policies to restrict big nonsense.

I hope that the China Securities Regulatory Commission and listed companies understand where their fiduciary responsibilities to the country, nation and small and medium shareholders lie.Here, we are not talking about the law.Since you are a professional manager of a listed company, you have to have a fiduciary responsibility to your shareholders. You have to create wealth for them, instead of holding on to the government's promises.I ask our listed companies to go back and think carefully about what Professor Lang mentioned, weakening the commitment and strengthening the fiduciary responsibility you should have.Only when everyone shows their conscience can our stock market have hope. If you still do not respect your conscience, do not pay attention to your fiduciary responsibility, and hold on to your promises, it will be difficult for the Chinese stock market to do anything.What is the impact of the financial crisis?Please note that the Icelandic story I told you earlier was that once the impact of the financial crisis hit, Iceland’s stock price fell by more than 90%.The impact of the financial crisis on my country's economy began in November 2008, that is to say, since November, the international financial crisis has been linked to our Chinese market.This is why China's manufacturing orders fell sharply in November, and the fiscal and tax revenues of governments at all levels fell sharply in November.Because of the problems faced by some of our private manufacturing industries, in addition to the exchange rate, cost, "Labor Contract Law" and macro-control I mentioned earlier, the impact of the international financial crisis has been added since November 2008.The impact of the international financial crisis is the fifth sharp knife. Cooperating with the other four major domestic shocks, these five factors will make the situation of my country's private economy, especially the manufacturing industry, worse.

If their situation worsens, it will put more pressure on my country's stock market. In addition, the problems of large and small non-compliance have not been effectively resolved. These two forces will make the prospect of the stock market not optimistic, or even more pessimistic.At the beginning of 2009, I felt that we should change our perspective on the whole situation.It is impossible for me to talk about the stock market in every book, but many of my fans often come to ask me, Professor Lang, how do you see the stock market going.I tell you so, don't ask me next time.Whether the stock market is good or not depends on two questions: first, whether the big and small problems can be completely solved; second, whether our government’s 4 trillion yuan rescue project can help the manufacturing industry.Only when my country's private manufacturing industry improves, can the stock market have hope.

In other words, if the government's 4 trillion yuan project can turn the situation around, and if the big and small problems can be completely resolved, our stock market will rise.If the economic situation gets worse and the big and small non-issues are not resolved, then this is the beginning and the stock market will continue to go down.So now everyone should stop looking at how the stock index is going. You have to look at the source of the situation.That is the fundamentals of the entire Chinese economy. It is not a part of overheating, not a part of driving GDP, but looking at private enterprises that account for 70% of the total economy. You can see if it will improve. Only when it improves, the stock market will have The driving force for the rise, it has turned bad, and it is the driving force for the stock market to decline. This is why our government implemented a rescue project in 2008. Is there any rescue?help.And I have to say frankly that the stock market can be saved, but only in the short term.Because the private economy dominated by manufacturing is the source of the problem.If it continues to deteriorate, it will cause the entire stock market to go down. If this situation becomes a reality, no matter how the government saves it, it will only have short-term effects, not long-term effects.To really achieve long-term effects, you must jump out of the stock market to solve the problems of the stock market. This is the principle of besieging Wei and saving Zhao.That is to say, we must return to the most basic and fundamental problem, which is to solve the difficulties of the private economy. The more and faster the difficulties are solved, the better the stock market will be.

The World Bank now expects global economic growth to slow to 0.9 percent in 2009 from 2.5 percent in 2008, the smallest increase since the World Bank began recording the data in 1970.The latest forecasts of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for China's economic growth in 2009 are 7.5% and 8.5% respectively.Although compared with China's high growth rate of more than 10% in the past five years, the downward trend of economic growth has become more prominent, but the expected growth rate of China's economy is still higher than that of other countries in the world.According to estimates by the World Bank and other institutions, my country's economic growth contributed about 17% to global economic growth in 2007, making it the country that contributed the most to global economic growth.However, according to China's economic growth rate of about 8% in 2008, China's contribution rate to world economic growth still ranks first in the world.

At the beginning of 2009, the government has launched many policies in this regard, including Premier Wen Jiabao's proposal to help small and medium-sized enterprises through taxation, financing, industrial transformation and services.Moreover, Zhou Xiaochuan also proposed on December 26, 2008 that, in addition to investing in infrastructure, a large part of the government’s 4 trillion yuan rescue project should be diverted to the private economy, hoping that the private economy will be more prosperous and increase Everyone's consumption, in fact, if these can be implemented, it will have a beneficial and stimulating effect on my country's private economy dominated by manufacturing.Only when it is good, the stock market will be good.And I think the role of the private economy is the greatest, even above the big and small ones.But these two problems must be solved at the same time in order to effectively promote the long-term development of the stock market.

Therefore, this year the central government's policy has gradually shifted to the private economy, and the effect of the government's promotion of the development of the private economy will be greater.My personal attitude is of course cautiously optimistic, and I hope this effect will be effective.As long as it is effective, the stock market will improve in 2009. If it is not effective, or the impact of the international financial crisis is too great, then there is no way.And here I have to say that the international financial crisis is related to each of us. It was a great depression and crisis that has never happened in a century.The magnitude of the impact depends on how the US government rescues the market, so this is very complicated.If the U.S. government succeeds in bailing out the market, the impact of the crisis can be reduced, and the impact on us will be smaller.If they fail, the impact I just said will be even greater.Therefore, for our stock market in 2009, due to the recession of our manufacturing industry, the impact of the international financial crisis, and the problems of large and small, it will become particularly uncertain.Everyone needs to be mentally prepared.

I believe that many readers have understood my discussion in this chapter, so the next question must be to ask me whether I should buy stocks in 2009?I am not a stock critic. I never tell readers whether they should buy stocks or not. That is your own decision. I just tell readers what the fundamentals of stock prices are. When I was doing the program, several guests asked me about stocks. I thought it would be helpful for you to decide whether to buy stocks, so I listed their questions and my answers for readers' reference. Audience: I have a question. Regarding the stock market, I would like to ask you. Can you boldly predict whether the Chinese government will add a lock or a patch to the big and small stocks in the next step?

Lang Xianping: Certainly. Audience: This is the first question. The second question is, will the government launch a stabilization fund, or a similar stabilization fund? Will it, thank you. Lang Xianping: I don't know. You should ask Shang Fulin this question, not me.It would be too sad if the purpose of the stabilization fund is to support big and small non-profits.So I think the question is not whether to have a stabilization fund, but to solve the problems of big and small, and then launch a stabilization fund to be valuable.Otherwise, what's the point of using the stabilization fund to support the big and small non-profits?Do you understand what I mean?Otherwise, it is meaningless to seek profit from these vested interest groups - listed companies.Therefore, I am in favor of the launch of the Stabilization Fund, but what is the purpose of the launch? It should be able to help us small and medium investors get rich.But if the stabilization fund is bundled with the size and non-size issues, then there will be deviations, which will not help us.After the big and small non-issues come out, you can use the stabilization fund to support you, so what is it?The benefits of our small and medium shareholders in this case are not great.Therefore, whether the stabilization fund will be launched at present is not the most important thing, but what attitude we will use to treat this fund after the launch of the stabilization fund.The purpose of launching should be to create wealth for small and medium shareholders, not to support the loopholes of big and small.

Audience: Will there be any signs of recovery in the third and fourth quarters of 2009?Or 2010? Lang Xianping: No. Audience: I want to know the timing of a bottom-buying? Lang Xianping: Don't copy, you'd better not copy.This will definitely not be a short-term crisis. If you understand the current situation of my country's manufacturing industry, you will be very worried.You'd better not copy this bottom line. An economic crisis has taken shape: Private consumption, the most important growth engine for advanced economies, is being lost as consumer credit shrinks.In a symbiotic environment where the global cycle is synchronized, developing economies are highly dependent on external demand to drive economic growth, and external demand as a lever for driving investment and consumption in developing economies is very obvious. When the consumption of developed economies decreases, the consumption of the latter It is difficult for domestic demand capacity to serve as a growth support point for developing economies and the global economy. In 2009, the global economy will step into a downward cycle simultaneously, and the possibility of recession is extremely high.

The EU's recession is more severe than that of the US: In the series of developed economies, due to the order of industrial division of labor, as high-end manufacturers and major financial centers after the US, economies such as the EU and Japan have been more seriously affected.Especially the European Union, due to the more serious real estate market bubble, the more severe golden weasel crisis and the rapid shrinkage of exports, its recession space is greater than that of the United States. The global economy has fallen into an L-shaped downward cycle: This downward cycle occurred in a period when trade and finance were more globalized, and the impact mainly came from the financial crisis related to the banking industry. The downward impact is wider and lasts longer. The overall economy will Into the L-shaped trend.According to the empirical analysis of the downturn samples caused by the large-scale financial crisis since the 1990s, the average quarterly recovery required by the financial crisis falls to about 15.8 quarters, which is about 4 years.Therefore, we judge that the global economy will grow at a lower rate in the next period, and a strong recovery may need to wait until around 2012. The US stock market bottomed out in the third quarter of 2009: on the one hand, the global economy will reach its lowest point in the first half of 2009; For the data of the banking financial crisis, which has a greater impact on the real economy, the stock market decline due to the impact of the financial crisis generally lasts for about 1-3 years, so this downward trend of the stock market may continue for 1-2 years.Combining the two, we judge that US stocks will form a bottom in the third quarter of 2009. The path and main breakthrough point for China's economic breakthrough: In response to the current economic predicament, government investment will still be the breakthrough point for promoting economic growth.It is estimated that the contribution of the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan to GDP will exceed 1.5%.The pulling effect on consumption is about 0.4%.In addition, industrial upgrading through restructuring, mergers and integration within the industry will also lead China's economy to stand out from the encirclement. (This article is an excerpt from "Adverse Market Layout: Operation and Investment Strategy under the Economic Crisis" edited by Peng Yanping, executive general manager of the R&D Department of Zhongbei Construction Investment)