Chapter 41 3. What is the real crisis brought about by the property market bubble

From the national average, real estate investment accounts for about 25% of fixed asset investment, and in some cities it exceeds 50%. For local governments, the decline in real estate investment and the shrinking transaction volume have obviously affected the land of local governments. In order to alleviate the stagnant situation of the real estate market, the central government, ministries and localities have issued hundreds of policies and documents in 2008. It can be said that 2008 is the policy year of the real estate industry.Since June, some local governments have introduced policies to encourage home buyers to enter the market to buy houses.In September and October, "rescue" policies emerged one after another, and there were corresponding "rescue" policies from the local government to the central government to encourage consumption.Loosening second-home loans, reducing taxes and fees, and lowering loan interest... According to calculations, these policies have actually directly reduced the cost of home buyers by more than 20%.

In addition, on New Year's Day in 2009, banks began to implement the latest interest rate cuts after five interest rate cuts, and the cost of mortgages for home buyers will drop by more than 10%.Taking the 20-year commercial loan of 500,000 yuan as an example, after the implementation of the new interest rate, home buyers can reduce the payment by 365 yuan per month. Although so many policies have been promulgated, they still have not changed the situation of unsalable houses, nor have they fundamentally changed the current situation of excessively high housing prices.So what factors determine the price of real estate?

Have you ever thought of what the real crisis that the property market bubble will bring is?That is, in 2007 and 2008, when a large amount of resources were misled into the real estate market, many real estate developers' capital chains were tense, and the result of the sharp drop in housing prices was that many real estate developers were locked up. What is more frightening?That is the mass closure of manufacturing enterprises, because the purchasing power of entrepreneurs has shrunk dramatically.One is that housing prices plummeted, locking up real estate developers. Second, the real bulk buyers are manufacturing entrepreneurs. As a result of the collapse of manufacturing companies, their purchasing power has also dropped significantly.As a result of these two mutual influences, in the second half of 2008, especially after October, the sales of real estate properties in various places were slow to sell.

This inevitable situation is due to the following two same reasons: the first is that the capital chain of real estate developers is too tight; the second is that the purchasing power continues to decline.This makes starting from 2009, the new real estate market in my country's real estate market started very little.Think about it, what would happen if no new buildings were built everywhere starting from 2009? Why do you say that?Because all industries related to real estate will suddenly enter an unprecedented winter at the same time, including steel, cement, profiles, etc., or aluminum alloy doors and windows, elevators, etc.Readers, please think about it, this crisis is very great.So at this moment, I think our government should face the problem as soon as possible. If this moment really comes, we have to use the power of the government to build more cheap affordable housing and more low-rent housing, and we must Building in a good location can attract social resources.Otherwise, all these related industries will face an unprecedented winter at the same time.This impact is too great. The impact caused by the real estate industry on other industries will make the unemployment rate reach an unimaginable situation.

In fact, all this happened in September 2008. At that time, the price of iron ore has been rising. It rose by 76% in the first year, 19% in the second year, and 95% in the third year. Therefore, our steel industry Misjudgment, misjudgment of this bubble phenomenon has become normal, because their thinking is the same as that of real estate developers. They think that this rise is due to the success of our reform and opening up, so the result of construction in various places, including construction, including real estate , including highways, including bridges, etc. require a lot of steel.Therefore, it is normal for our country to need steel products.Therefore, they mistakenly believe that the rise in international iron ore prices is normal, and the results of the misjudgment have been fully exposed since September 2008.I still remember going to Shanghai Baosteel to give a speech at the end of September. I explained the misjudgment to them very clearly.

I said that your performance at Baosteel will decline from October onwards. They are not very happy, and they say yes, I am serious, your performance will start to decline, and they say yes, but they may not be very happy in their hearts, so When he invited me to dinner at noon, he took me to the staff cafeteria and ate two steamed buns.In mid-October 2008, one day I ran into one of the leaders of Baosteel at the Beijing Capital Airport. The leader saw that I was very affectionate and rushed over when he saw me. He scared me. He said, Professor Lang, you It's great.I said what's the matter, don't get excited.He said that after you left for a month, Baosteel's performance really declined like that, and half of the production lines were closed.Why is that?Because after October, with the deterioration of the overall economic situation and the stagnation of the real estate market, many related industries immediately fell into winter, and due to the result of misjudgment, many steel companies accumulated a large amount of steel when the price was high. resulting in serious losses.