Chapter 2 Recommended Preface The world 20 years later, the Chinese world?

We always choose some books to put on our bookshelves, just in case we need them.They are often the most precious.So, in the field of economics, what kind of book can be regarded as a useful reference book?Pierre Picard sets a fine example. Books of general review are often fascinating, but lively prose usually belies their lack of information, unless the book involves only broad references to original information.This is also a critical book—whether the author agrees with that statement or not—with the difference that this book focuses on providing original information, data, and sources on which to base its outlook.

Therefore, Pierre Picard's book is also a document that elaborates on "China and the world in 20 years' time".Of course, Pierre Picard is by no means the first person to write such a book about this beautiful and mysterious oriental country and think that it will surpass all previous great countries.However, this book has both rigorous structure and sufficient arguments, which makes it stand out among similar books. China is now a challenger that cannot be underestimated for all countries in the world, especially for the United States and European powers, the former world hegemons.Pierre Picard elaborates on this.In recent years, China has become the world's processing workshop, and has always held the largest amount of foreign exchange reserves.Whether it is in the field of economy and finance, humanities or science and technology, China is moving towards the world's largest power. The author will describe this slow journey in detail for us in this book.

The numbers involved in the book are astonishing, and Pierre Picard listed them like a formation: the scale of cities is developing rapidly, communication methods are emerging in an endless stream, and China will build the world's largest roads, railways and Aviation network; China has refused to become a maritime power for centuries, but now the situation is very different, China will become the most important maritime power in the world, and its ports will become very large; China has invested in a wide range of fields and has become the largest direct investor, especially in agriculture. China has purchased millions of hectares of land around the world; They have sprung up like mushrooms after rain.

China's strength will be reflected in the field of diplomacy. In the process of discussing major international issues and dealing with the affairs of major international institutions (such as the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations, etc.), China's voice is indispensable. "Will everything be Chinese in tomorrow's world?" This book puts forward this question sharply.Its conclusion is also unambiguous: "This will be a radical change, and we will have to get used to it." However, after paying homage to the excellent quality of this work and giving it high marks, my task as a critic does not end here, and I should go a step further in fulfilling my duties.While reading this book—I believe that more people should read it, I couldn't help but think of another book that was equally inspiring at the time: "The World" by Herman Kahn, the pioneer of social outlook in the United States. Japan's Challenge".The book was published in France in 1971.Forty years ago, this book charted the unstoppable rise of Japan, making it difficult for the West to catch up.Herman Kahn once warned Westerners: "The per capita GDP of this country will surpass that of the United States, and its total GDP may surpass that of the United States around the year 2000..." He also added: "One thing is certain... …the Japanese wanted to use their environment to create a work of art, to create a masterful technique.” We don’t go to the bottom of what the Japanese do with their environment, because we know very well that natural events are at the root of staged history.After all, the prophecies woven by Herman Kahn were largely tolerated.

We would say that economics has progressed and it is no longer necessary to look for reasons through such historical comparisons.But whether China can always go to the top of the world calmly and without fear, we will also have doubts of one kind or another.Henry Kissinger once said that China's plans for the world could conflict with "major internal problems." The first problem is the contradiction between China's current political system and social and economic development. "Creating" tens of thousands of engineers, academics, entrepreneurs, managers, and financiers will inevitably raise issues of responsibility, organization, and power.

It's no secret to everyone that investment in infrastructure should pay dividends, and that building new airports, high-speed rail, and the like can create serious fiscal deficits.In order to prevent China's current large economic zones from being crowded together and form "thrombosis", it is necessary to readjust the national economic development trend and shift the focus to the central cities.And what are the social costs of this? Regarding China, the future world leader, Henry Kissinger once asserted: "It is hard to believe that a country that even needs to work hard for such a basic transformation will have the time to focus on dominating the world."

Forty years later, will Pierre Picard's prophecy come true?It doesn't matter!It is precisely because he raised and analyzed China's issues rigorously and clearly that this book is worth reading. Pascal O'Donoghue: Banker, special columnist for "Thought and Debate", "Circle" and other columns of the French "Echos" (les Echos.fr). Worked as Deputy Managing Director, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer in various large and small organizations in France, the United States and the United Kingdom.Currently serving as the CEO of HSBC Bill Financing Company, he proposed and implemented the HSBC factoring service strategy.

He is the author of several economic books: Les Multination alesco ntre les Etats (Les Multination alesco ntre les Etats), The Global Raw Materials War (la Bataille Mondialedes Matieres Premieres), Medium and Long-Term Loans (le Credita Moyenet Long Terme), etc.