Chapter 13 Chapter 8 We print money and shop by ourselves

The subprime mortgage crisis began to sweep across the entire United States in August 2007 and gradually spread to the world, leading to the global financial crisis.As I said before, there is no need for the United States to pierce the subprime mortgage loopholes, and just continue to print money to fill the loopholes.However, since it has been pierced, the financial crisis has really come.However, the United States has been in financial crisis from beginning to end, but no economic crisis, because it is an empty shell economy, and there is no economic crisis.If there is, it is that their people are not so easy to borrow money to buy "Made in China".

China, on the other hand, started the economic crisis from the first moment when the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States. It is very simple. The United States is the largest export market for China's manufacturing industry. The subprime mortgage crisis made Americans lose money all at once. After buying things, Chinese products cannot be sold in the United States, and small and medium-sized enterprises in China's coastal manufacturing industry immediately went bankrupt.Isn't this an economic crisis?If you invite Marx out, he would have to say that this is an economic crisis, because it is exactly the same as the economic crisis he defined: overproduction (products cannot be sold), a large number of business closures, and a large number of unemployed workers.

Of course, as I said earlier, today’s capitalists basically do not overproduce, but overcapacity. If they find something wrong today, they will fire workers and reduce production tomorrow, without a large backlog of products.As early as the end of 2008, the "China Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast" research group of Renmin University of China (hereinafter referred to as the research group of Renmin University of China, the person in charge: Professor Yang Ruilong, Dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China) made a report on the economic crisis that China will face. predicted.They predicted that the potential GDP gap in 2009 would further expand, and the imbalance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand would further worsen. The potential GDP gap in 2009 would worsen by an average of 85.3% compared with 2008; the level of unemployment would further expand, and the scale of unemployment in China in 2009 would It will be close to 32 million people, and the adjusted unemployment rate will climb from 7.1% in 2007 to about 9.3%.The world economy will be in deep decline.This will deal a serious blow to China's exports, making the decline in China's external demand far exceed the level of 2008.At the same time, due to the high elasticity of China's export income, exports are more sensitive to the growth of national income of major trading countries.The simultaneous sharp decline in the three major economic sectors of Europe, the United States, and Japan will have a direct and deep impact on China's exports.

Therefore, the growth rates of exports and imports, which have a huge impact on China's current economy, will continue to decline. Among them, the growth rate of exports will decline more sharply. It is expected that the growth rate of exports will drop by 6.9% and the growth rate of imports will drop by 6.1%.This resulted in a decrease of USD 14.6 billion in the trade surplus in 2009 compared with 2008, and the growth rate of the trade surplus was -5.5%.Different from 2007-2008, the problem of China's exports in 2009 was not the impact of rising internal costs and declining competitiveness, but the impact of falling external demand. The actual impact of the 2009 financial crisis on the real economies of the United States, Europe, and Japan will be fully reflected in the decline in their import demand.This kind of demand shock makes it difficult to use supply-side stimulus policies such as slowing down the appreciation of the renminbi, increasing the export tax rebate rate, and export subsidies to alleviate the decline in external demand.Of course, we were lucky to see that the extremely powerful Chinese government used the Keynesian method to defeat the economic crisis in 2009, and the 4 trillion yuan (launched in November 2008) infrastructure project was dropped, which immediately digested the excess capacity of reinforced concrete, thus It also made up for the gap in GDP growth caused by the sharp drop in exports. In 2009, China's economy managed to maintain its eighth position, outshining the rest of the world.

But we must see that the Keynesian approach is becoming less and less applicable to China, because China’s infrastructure is no longer weak, and railways, highways and other facilities are already good. If we continue to engage in infrastructure projects, it will be nothing There are no cars on the newly repaired expressway.Then the effect of 4 trillion yuan is to digest today's overcapacity in exchange for tomorrow's greater overcapacity.how do I say this? On the one hand, the infrastructure construction of 4 trillion yuan may cause building material manufacturers to expand their production capacity. Please note that if there is no 4 trillion yuan, these manufacturers will already have excess production capacity. If the 4 trillion yuan is dropped, their products will suddenly be in short supply. , then they are likely to add new production equipment and expand the factory building, that is, expand production capacity.Then once the 4 trillion yuan is spent, the water falls and the boat falls, and these enterprises are brought back to their original shape. At that time, they will face a greater overcapacity than before the 4 trillion yuan.

On the other hand, those things built with 4 trillion yuan are likely to be "overcapacity", such as the expressways in the west where no cars run, this is the "overcapacity" expressway (if you put the expressway to carry cars If this matter is regarded as the "production" of the expressway, it can be said that the expressway without cars is overcapacity (tell the highway), similarly, the government office buildings with a lot of civil servants who are blooming everywhere are also overcapacity office building. I have to say that China has better options than Keynesianism.What is the choice?

That is, China itself prints money to shop and consume its various excess production capacity. Having said so much about printing money for shopping, I think it is necessary to give a stricter explanation of this thing itself.Printing money for shopping is by no means something I came up with, but a long-term hard thinking.The beginning of this whole thinking process is the study of consumption bottleneck economy.A consumption bottleneck economy is an economy where things cannot be sold, an economy with excess production capacity, an economy with overproduction in Marx's view, an economy with insufficient effective demand in Keynes' view, and even more so, a "growth-type economy" in Krugman's view. recession" economy.All of this is the same thing. In the human economy since industrialization, there is a common phenomenon that consumption cannot keep up with investment. The production capacity of the whole society is far greater than the purchase demand of the whole society for commodities.The thing is that simple, this society has the ability to produce 100 bicycles, but only 50 are capable and want to buy, then the remaining 50 are excess production capacity, which is basically the case for all products.

How did Marx explain the reasons for this phenomenon? Quite simply, he thought it was due to the brutal exploitation of the workers by the capitalists, because the capitalists took too much and the workers took too little, and then what?The capitalists further expand production, while the consumption capacity of workers further shrinks, and the result is that the products produced by the capitalists cannot be sold. So things like the agricultural capitalists pouring milk into the river, that is, the crisis of the capitalist economy. When you look at the capitalists of that era now, you will find it quite funny. How could they be so stupid?Why not investigate the supply and demand information of the market and decide your own output, and in the end, overproduction will be formed, and the overproduced products will be destroyed.

In fact, it’s not that they’re stupid, but that they’re limited by objective conditions. You can see that the IQ of today’s capitalists hasn’t increased, but due to the development of information, supply and demand information can be checked clearly through the Internet, so there is no overproduction, and There is just overcapacity - the capitalists are not producing the excess even though they are capable of producing it, how did Keynes explain it?He explained it with the three psychological laws of consumers, the most important of which is the law of diminishing marginal propensity to consume. The proportion of your income will become smaller and smaller.

For example, if you earn 500 yuan a month when you are 18 years old, you will spend almost all of this money, because you have to spend this much to survive. At this time, your marginal propensity to consume is 100%. At the age of 20, you earn 2,000 yuan a month, it is likely that you still only spend 500 yuan a day, and you save the rest of the money. At this time, your marginal propensity to consume is 25%, because you receive daily Of course, if you accidentally become a billionaire when you are 40 years old, with an annual income of hundreds of millions, then the 100 million you earn every year is likely to Spend a million dollars, and your marginal propensity to spend is terribly low—only 0.1 percent.

What does this law of diminishing marginal propensity to consume mean? Quite simply, it will lead to a serious shortage of effective demand in the whole society, that is, a serious shortage of money that people in the whole society are willing (of course they must have the ability) to spend on consumption.This has led to overcapacity, and consumption has become a bottleneck restricting economic development. What did Krugman say?He called this consumption bottleneck economic pattern "growth recession": "An economy is still growing, but the growth rate cannot keep up with the expansion of production capacity, so there are more and more idle production capacity and unemployed people." Krugman argues that the core concept of his depression economics is "a failure of the demand side of the economy - the insufficiency of private consumption to make full use of the available productive capacity. Because there is not sufficient consumption demand, one economy after another suffers a recession, without exception: Japan for 10 years since the 1990s, Mexico since 1995, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea since 1997, Argentina since 2002, all countries since 2008." In fact, there is nothing new, and it is no different from what Marx said hundreds of years ago, and it is the same thing as what Keynes said.All economists will agree with this point that overcapacity is an economic dilemma or disaster. From the perspective of the whole society, it is a huge waste of efficiency, because the whole society could have produced much more products, thus It can make people live a much richer life than they are now. However, due to insufficient consumption caused by various factors, these commodities cannot be produced.In a word, this is a great tragedy, a tragedy in which human beings are able to produce but cannot produce. How to get out of this huge tragedy? We are all familiar with Marx’s method, that is, public ownership and a planned economy. Public ownership can eliminate exploitation. Without capitalist exploitation, workers will get more share, and consumer demand will be strong, so products will not be unsold. ; As for the planned economy, it solves the problem that profits limit production. Isn't the overcapacity of capitalism just because there is no profit and production cannot be carried out?Well, in a planned economy, production is not for the pursuit of profit. You just have to run at full capacity in any factory according to the government's order, and produce as much as you can, and don't leave any excess capacity.How about it, it's perfect.You will find that such an arrangement has indeed achieved the greatest development of productivity, no waste at all, and the whole society has obtained the most products. In theory, Marx’s socialist society can allow the people to live the most abundant life, because its The most products.However, theory is one thing and reality is another.Almost without exception, the practice of socialist planned economies in all countries in the world has achieved the opposite result: instead of surpassing capitalism, their production efficiency is much lower than that of "overcapacity" capitalist countries. why? The problem is not in theory, but in practice. It is impossible for selfish people to work hard in a public economy. How did Keynes solve the same problem? That is the Keynesian doctrine that we are very familiar with now, that is, the government intervenes in the economy to digest the excess capacity of the whole society through the government's fiscal expansion and large-scale construction.It worked so well that America got out of the Great Depression in the 1930s. After 1980, China also continued to use Keynesianism repeatedly. This time, the Chinese government’s 4 trillion yuan investment is also the same thing. Thanks to this 4 trillion yuan, China has achieved 8. What is the result of my thinking? First of all, the market economy cannot be abandoned. A planned economy is only feasible in theory to solve overcapacity, but not in practice. The next question is how to completely solve the problem of insufficient consumption under the conditions of a market economy, so that social production can be maximized under the conditions of existing production capacity, so that products can be maximized and people's lives the most abundant?The result of thinking is printing money for shopping. Keynesianism is actually a type of printing money for shopping, but it is the government that spends money, the government is shopping, and the government implements Keynesian policies by relying on fiscal deficits and issuing treasury bonds to raise funds. Just money, same effect.In fact, Keynesian money-printing for shopping can only be applied to countries with weak or lacking infrastructure.In such a country, the production capacity of various building materials (steel bars, cement, etc.) is extremely large, and the market itself may only be able to absorb a small part, so the government can get involved and print money to buy these steel bars and cement to build infrastructure Build, overhaul railroads, highways, sports stadiums, agricultural infrastructure, and more.You will find that the printing of money by the government (the central bank) brings about a happy situation for everyone: the factory makes profits, and the whole society produces so many products such as steel and concrete, and finally these products become railways, roads, and stadiums. Etc., social employment has also been increased from two aspects (one is that the increase in reinforced concrete production requires the employment of more workers, and the other is that infrastructure construction directly requires a large number of construction workers, engineers, designers, etc.). Does printing money cause inflation? No, because the premise of inflation is that there is more money, but the goods do not change (or decrease), but in printing money shopping, printing money directly leads to an equivalent increase in goods, how can there be inflation?However, Keynesianism is not suitable for countries with sound infrastructure, because the final infrastructure is useless (the original facilities are enough), and the highways and railways you built are useless. Sports venues have been vacant for a long time, and agricultural facilities are not used at all. This is a huge waste. If you develop excess steel and concrete production capacity, the result is a pile of useless waste, which is meaningless. Finally, I strictly list the implementation conditions for printing money shopping: First, it can only be implemented in countries with excess production capacity. Only in this way will the printing of money directly lead to an equivalent increase in social products. Second, in countries with weak infrastructure and overcapacity, on the one hand, Keynesian money printing and shopping can be carried out to digest the excess capacity of production materials (reinforced concrete) manufacturers; ) to implement printing money shopping on living materials. Third, in countries with complete infrastructure, it is only suitable for printing money for shopping on daily necessities. The money you print can only be used to buy daily necessities. Fourth, the total amount of money printed should not exceed the total value of goods that can be produced by excess capacity.It is easy to grasp in practice. You can gradually increase the printing volume to go shopping. Once you find that the supply of goods is difficult, you must stop printing. If you continue to print, it will cause inflation.Because the production capacity has been developed to the extreme, and the money that continues to be printed will not bring about an increase in commodities, which will lead to a situation where the currency will increase but the commodities will remain unchanged. Knowing the whole logic of printing money to buy, we finally know that it is so simple, in any economy with excess capacity, you just print money to buy these items, which could not be produced (because no one buys them) Items can be produced, and the total wealth of society will increase dramatically because you print money. Printing money directly leads to an equal increase in social material wealth, which is the basic logic of printing money for shopping. We must overthrow the traditional economic view that printing money for shopping leads to inflation. Europeans and Americans are fooling us with this theory.On the one hand, Europeans and Americans are printing money to buy our goods; on the other hand, they scare us by saying that we must pay attention to the money printing machine, printing too much will lead to inflation, and inflation will lead to securities instability. The U.S. has printed so many U.S. dollars to shop around the world, but why hasn’t there been a huge depreciation of the U.S. dollar (that is, the “inflation” of goods relative to the U.S. dollar)? It's very simple, because of the excess production capacity in the world, every dollar printed by the United States to buy things from foreigners will cause an extra dollar to be produced worldwide. You must understand that if the Americans do not print this U.S. dollars, this thing will not be produced in the world. That is to say, no matter how the US dollar is printed, it will always lead to the emergence of equivalent goods around the world. There are more currencies and more goods, so how can there be inflation and how can the US dollar depreciate? In the long run, the dollar has been strong.However, few people in this world have really realized the reason for the strength of the dollar. Basically, everyone foolishly thinks that the dollar is strong because the U.S. economy is strong, and I am here to tell you that the dollar is strong because of the above-mentioned The law of printing money to buy (more money printing leads to more goods) is at work.This is not because the U.S. economy is strong, and the U.S. is obviously an empty shell. Knowing the principle of printing money for shopping, we also know that this kind of thing is not only implemented between countries (the United States prints money to buy Chinese goods), but in fact, it can also be implemented within a country, as we said earlier In fact, the Keynesianism implemented in the United States during the Great Depression was essentially that Americans printed money to buy their own goods, and it was a country-wide printing of money for shopping.In fact, as we said earlier, the implementation of the Keynesian policy in all countries is actually a domestic printing of money for shopping. Keynesianism mainly refers to the government printing money to buy production materials during economic depression, thereby digesting the excess capacity of manufacturers that manufacture production materials. , so that they can work at full capacity, they will also hire a sufficient number of workers, and their employment will be preserved. For countries with weak infrastructure, Keynesian money-printing shopping can quickly upgrade and improve such things as railways, highways, urban facilities, and agricultural facilities, and these achievements are caused by printing money.Since countries in the world have not yet realized the law of printing money for shopping, countries dare to use Keynesianism only when the economy is in depression. Keynesianism is a kind of printing money for shopping by accident. When any country uses it I don't know that this is actually using the law of printing money for shopping.The government is only raising money to buy investment products (steel bars, cement, workers, etc.) through the issuance of additional national debt and fiscal deficits. As soon as money is printed, it will lead to the emergence of reinforced concrete that does not exist. In fact, almost all governments playing Keynesianism have ended up printing money for shopping, because the issued national debts are ultimately repaid by money printing machines, or new national debts are issued to repay old debts, which has nothing to do with money printing machines repaying debts in essence. the difference.Now we understand that the government already knows how to use printed money to shop, but they don't understand the true meaning of it, and they have always called it Keynesianism. What is the essence of Keynesianism? Let me tell you that when overcapacity develops to an extremely serious level, that is, when the contradiction between insufficient demand and unlimited expansion of production becomes irreconcilable, the government adopts the behavior of printing money for shopping to resolve the contradiction between supply and demand.Readers who know a little bit about Marx know that this situation is what Marx called an economic crisis. Isn’t an economic crisis just an overproduction, and milk that cannot be sold is thrown into the river.Of course, economic crises can be big or small, but contemporary countries rely on Keynesianism (in fact, printing money to buy steel and concrete) to solve all these big and small economic crises. In fact, printing money for shopping is not only available in times of economic depression, it can be used as long as excess capacity reaches a certain scale. This also means that the policy of printing money for shopping can be used as a daily policy of the government, because overcapacity is the norm in the modern economy, and there is overcapacity in any corner of China every year, every month, every day, every minute, every second.We can print money to sweep away the excess capacity in all corners, maximize the products of the entire society, and thus make the people's living standards extremely high. Of course, the premise is to find a way to make these products available to the people. To sum up, since from a spatial point of view, money printing for shopping is not limited to international markets, but can be implemented within a country, then why do we need the United States to help us print money for shopping?Let's do it ourselves!Since from the perspective of time, printing money for shopping is not only implemented in times of economic depression, why should we use Keynesianism only when the economy is in trouble?We can turn printing money for shopping into a regular national policy!It can be used yearly, monthly, and every day! Now there is no doubt, I just want to advocate China to print money for shopping. Before going into detail about how China prints money for shopping, I would like to address two important prelude questions to pave the way for the rest of the article. The first question is, what is the result of Americans (not mentioning Europe for the sake of simplicity of analysis) helping us print money for shopping. Let me start by saying that Americans have done a great thing for humanity.Think about it, if there is no US printing money for shopping, the part of China’s exports to the US would not be produced. See, Americans printing money has led to a huge increase in the material wealth of humanity.Do you think the Americans have contributed a lot?And even if the Americans exchanged Chinese goods for white paper, from the perspective of all mankind, the Chinese did not do it for nothing, because the fruits of labor supported the Americans.Think again for the sake of all human beings. If there were no Americans printing these banknotes to buy Chinese products, China would not produce these products. Isn’t this a big loss for human beings? Secondly, we must see that from China's perspective, we have lost a lot, and we have done nothing to gain benefits.What is even more disadvantageous is that logically speaking, we could have printed money to buy these things by ourselves, and lived a prosperous life by ourselves, but now we have nothing to gain, and the products are given to Americans for nothing. What is the funniest consequence of Americans printing money for our shopping? You will find that the final result is that the amount of RMB printed will be exactly the same as that of our own money for shopping (if we print our own money for shopping), and that part of the goods will all go to the United States. What does it mean? Now we have 2 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves, which are accumulated from our trade surplus with the United States. We know that for every dollar of foreign exchange reserves, China has newly printed the equivalent of renminbi calculated according to the exchange rate, so Over the years, these foreign exchange reserves have caused us to print more than 13 trillion yuan of RMB.In other words, 13 trillion yuan of goods went to the United States, and 13 trillion yuan of currency came out of China. If China does not sell these goods to Americans, and the Chinese government prints its own currency to buy these 13 trillion yuan of goods and send them to the Chinese, what will happen?It's very simple. There are 13 trillion yuan more in China, and 13 trillion yuan more goods. Because of excess capacity, how much money you print will produce equivalent products.Those who are afraid that China will print its own money to buy things will cause inflation, compare these two results, and you will understand everything.What really causes inflation is the export of goods to the United States. The result of Americans printing money for shopping is our inflation, because our goods have decreased by as much as 13 trillion yuan, while paper money has increased by 13 trillion yuan. Huge. Don't you think it's amazing that all this is against the economics and financial theories taught by Europeans and Americans. Americans who print money have no inflation, and we who sell things have inflation.So, don’t be afraid that if you print too much money, it will cause inflation. It depends on what you print money for. In a modern economy with excess capacity, the result of printing money for shopping is: stable currency value + equivalent value to the newly printed currency of goods.There are all benefits and no harm. The second question is, what kind of products with excess capacity should we print money for shopping, can we really increase social wealth and improve our level of affluence. Of course, printing money for shopping is to exclude products with excess production capacity. Printing money for shopping of such products can only lead to a sharp rise in its price, but not an increase in its output.In China, such products are mainly products that cannot be expanded due to resource constraints. For example, urban houses have always been scarce due to land resources constraints. If you print money for shopping, it will push up the real estate bubble. That's all. So, are all products with excess capacity suitable for money-printing shopping? the answer is negative. This product must be a "relative surplus" product. What is relative surplus? It means that there are still a large number of people who want to buy this product but cannot afford it.There are too many such examples to list.Let me give an example to the contrary, so that you can better understand the meaning of relative excess. For example, light bulbs, basically every household has a shortage, and they can afford to buy them if they want. This kind of product has excess capacity, and it is meaningless for the government to print money to buy it, because no matter how much it produces, it will not be used anymore. , everyone has it.Therefore, printing money for shopping cannot be aimed at such products. What is the use of producing 10 billion light bulbs? It cannot increase anyone’s happiness at all. Let’s call this product an absolute surplus product. Linking this issue to the issue of export, we can draw two conclusions. One is which products can be exported, such as light bulbs.If you want to export, you can export it. It doesn't matter if you are willing to exchange it for US dollars. Your production has already met all the needs of the people of the whole country.The second is which products cannot continue to be exported, but the government prints money to buy them all. That is the relatively surplus product mentioned above, that is, many Chinese people want to buy products that cannot be afforded, so the government prints money to buy them. Distributed to these people, their living standards and happiness index will be improved. When will this move by the government end? Quite simply, until every Chinese has it and nobody wants it but can't get it, the government can stop printing money to buy it.From then on, the commodity can continue to be exported again. Why are we talking about this issue? Because in reality, some of the commodities exported by China today are indeed very close to the absolute surplus products. For example, we export more than one billion pairs of cheap leather shoes and sports shoes every year. Basically, there is no one in China who wants to buy these things but cannot afford them. The situation, basically everyone has it, and the annual sales of these things in China can no longer increase (for example, if 1.3 billion people buy a pair of domestic sports shoes every year, it is enough, then the annual sales volume is 1.3 billion pairs, no There is no more law), not because the Chinese have no money, but because there is absolutely no need for the Chinese to increase these things.The excess capacity of such things can only be consumed by foreigners.So when I talked about China's own money printing consumption to replace foreigners' money printing consumption, the products it targets can only be relatively surplus products, and the absolute surplus products can only be exported, or only produce just enough to satisfy the Chinese people Quantity, no longer produced. To sum up, I would like to tell you that the meaning of China's money printing for shopping is that the Chinese government prints money to buy those relatively surplus products and distribute them to the people in need, so as to rapidly increase the people's affluence.Doing so will not cause inflation. The real risk is how to prevent corruption from happening. If all the money printed by the government is secretly taken into their own pockets by corrupt officials, it will be a big trouble. What effects can we achieve by printing money for shopping in China? As I said earlier, think about the concept of distributing goods worth 13 trillion yuan to Chinese people. Now we get to the real topic, how should China print money for shopping.To be honest, it is very difficult and dangerous to explore this issue. Any loophole will lead to bankruptcy in practice and even lead to disaster.For example, I said earlier that the government prints money to buy various items and distribute them to the common people. This can only be a metaphor, or a theoretical statement. There are too many problems in reality.The government prints money to shop, so who will oversee the public servants responsible for purchasing?How to prevent their corruption.I have repeatedly emphasized that the feasibility of theory does not represent the feasibility of reality.Didn’t the planned economy under the public ownership system conceived by Marx also go bankrupt?How beautiful this idea is, it can solve the problem of overcapacity, realize the maximization of production, and make society move towards prosperity at the fastest speed. Here, I can only say that I have put forward some preliminary ideas, both in general terms and in details. First, the premise of printing money for shopping must be that the country has achieved a high degree of political civilization and legalization has been completed.The government is completely limited by the law, and any illegal and corrupt behavior must be automatically discovered and punished by the operation of the system itself. Printing money for shopping is not an ordinary thing. It prints money, money that can be used to buy things.There is huge room for corruption in the printing rights, usage rights, and control rights of these currencies. Second, the implementer and main operator of money-printing shopping must be the central government and local governments at all levels, and the central government is the core. Such things cannot be done by non-government groups. The currency of a country is the lifeblood of the country's economy. Only the government can control the overall situation in order to deal with all possible problems and changes.Perhaps, the state can set up a money-printing shopping committee, and local governments also have corresponding agencies to implement vertical management from the central to the local.Their specific functions can be: responsible for collecting the production capacity of various products, researching the corresponding amount of currency printing, shopping, determining the object of distribution of goods, and distributing goods to the public. Third, about the way of printing money for shopping.There are several possible options, each with pros and cons. ① The central agency directly deposits money into the accounts of the people, which can be done automatically with computer software, and can be done through the bank's internal electronic network.I have an interesting idea that one of these software can be designed to randomly distribute money across the country, that is, to randomly and continuously deposit money into the accounts of different people across the country. This method of saving money directly reduces the corrupt link in the middle, but the disadvantage is that it is not targeted. People who get the money may not necessarily buy China's relatively surplus products, and they may save it and not spend it.This is troublesome. The money saved is savings, which will be loaned to the company by the bank. The effect of this is to further stimulate the overcapacity of the company. ②The government directly uses the printed money to buy relatively surplus products and distribute them to the people in need.Naturally, this is the best way to achieve the goal of printing money for shopping. The disadvantage is how to prevent the possibility of power corruption. ③The way of shopping coupons.The government issues shopping coupons to the public. The shopping coupons specify which products can only be purchased, and stipulate that they must be spent within a certain date. The name of the person who is issued can even be printed on the shopping coupons, so that only he can use them.After the manufacturers deliver the goods to the public, they take the coupons to the government to ask for money, and the government prints money for them.This method should be the most perfect. First of all, it ensures the pertinence of shopping, and at the same time, it also ensures that the money will be purchased, and it will not be saved by the public, because it will be invalid after the expiration date.You have to ask, the public can also resell the shopping coupons (just as I said in vain that the shopping coupons are real-name system), and save the money.The effect is the same, people who buy shopping coupons will still go shopping in the end. After all, as many shopping coupons are issued, as many shopping coupons will eventually be used for shopping. No matter how you toss around, the total effect will be the same. Furthermore, once the issuance of shopping vouchers becomes a routine behavior of the government's money-printing shopping strategy, everyone has a share, and everyone has a lot, so there will be no turning around.Secondly, it also eliminates the possibility of corruption, because the government only issued real-name shopping vouchers at the beginning, and government officials cannot embezzle them, and it is useless to get them. When companies come to ask for money, you can only give the full amount. , it is impossible to lose one point.The only possible corruption is that when stipulating what items are purchased with shopping vouchers, policymakers may favor bribe-paying companies and list their products.However, since printing money for shopping is already a national strategy, it must be a large-scale behavior, and almost all enterprises have excess capacity, and the products of almost all enterprises will be included in the ranks of printing money for shopping, and what I said Printing money for shopping is to buy to the end, until the goods are distributed to the public and no one wants them, and there is no need for bribery. Another realistic arrangement about how to issue shopping coupons most effectively can be as follows: the government makes shopping coupons for all relatively surplus products, and does not stipulate which shopping coupons are issued to whom, but only stipulates how much denomination each person should get, and let the people themselves Fill out the declaration form and choose what you want until you have selected the amount.This avoids the situation that the shopping coupons sent to the public are not the goods he wants, and there is no need to worry about the transfer of shopping coupons. Fourth, China's regular money-printing shopping must be in the field of consumer goods. 这是因为，在生产资料领域的印钱购物（也就是凯恩斯主义）一定时期内（几十年内）对中国而言已经没什么意义了，因为我们的铁路、高速公路以及各种其他基础设施都已经不错了，至少几十年内是够用了。印钱买钢筋水泥搞这些设施，不会马上增加国民的福利，改善人民的生活。事实上，只要实施了印钱购物，由于消费品需求旺盛，最后所有消费品都会达到不存在产能过剩的地步，这也就意味着工厂需要不断地增加生产设备，不断提高产量，这也就带动了生产资料的需求（那些设备就是生产资料），生产资料领域的产能过剩也就解决了。所以压根就不需要单独对生产资料领域实施印钱购物。而在消费品领域，民众的需求则是永无止境的，如果是非耐用品，就得经常换新的，而耐用品经过一定年限也会坏掉，需要更新。食品则是立马就消化掉了，时时需要更新。 第五，印钱购物的度要把握好。 这个我在前文中已经说过，就是要密切跟踪各种产品产能的变化情况，一旦某种产品有供不应求的趋势时，就表明这个领域的产能已经不是过剩，而是发挥到极致了，这时就把该产品暂时从印钱购物的名单中划掉。 当然，还要继续跟踪它，如果这些厂商又接着购入设备、扩大产能，产品再次变得供过于求，那就恢复它在名单中的位置。 第六，处理好印钱购物与对外贸易的关系。 我说了，印钱购物就是中国自己印钱把相对过剩的产品买下来发给需要的民众，而不再让这些产品被美国人白白卷走。怎么才能让这些原本大量出口到美国的产品不再出口到美国呢？其实很简单，一方面只要我们对这类产品大规模实施印钱购物，那么生产这些产品的厂商自然就选择把产品都卖给国内的需求者，谁会舍近求远去出口呢？源源不断地中国民众拿着政府发放的购物券去换取他们的产品，他们供给国内民众还忙不过来，自然就不会出口给美国人了。另一方面，由于对那些国内绝对过剩的产品不实施印钱购物，过剩的产能依然让美国人印钱购物帮我们消化，继续出口。我说了，那些本来出口到美国的各类产品，很大一部分在国内属于相对过剩的产品，也就是说很多人想买但经济条件不够而没买的产品，所以大规模印钱购物会使得我们的出口额骤减，这就会导致我们的外汇收入骤减。从进口的角度看，我们的确是需要一定数量的美元的，因为没办法，国际上很多战略物资（包括石油）你都得用美元去买。 所以，从外贸的角度看，中国印钱购物的限度就是必须保证中国的美元够用，就是说要能保证出口换回来的美元够用，如果由于印钱购物导致中国回到了改革开放前的外汇极为稀缺的境地，那就是走向了另一个极端。我们既不需要目前的这种几万亿美元外汇存着没什么用的极端，也不需要外汇稀缺不够用的极端。够用，有一定富余是最好的。 最后我要补充一点，政府对于社会保障和福利的建设会大大有利于印钱购物的实施效果。当社会保障不完善的时候，你发购物券给民众，有可能他的总消费额仍然没有变化，他把省下的钱存起来了（这些钱在没有购物券时是要花出去的），以备不时之需。这样你会发现，印钱购物前后社会的总消费需求可能没变化，没有达到消化过剩产能的目的。当然，百姓的福利自然是提高了的：他原本用来购物的钱存起来了可以供医疗等之需。但是，如果政府先把社会保障问题解决好了，效果就会更好。 至于说，政府可不可以也印钱来解决社保问题呢？这个问题过于复杂，暂时先不在本书讨论，日后再说吧。我也希望各位能一起继续思考中国怎样印钱购物这个问题。关于中国社会保障和社会公正问题，请参照全书附录中的第一篇《中国经济、社会可持续发展的三个方面》。 谈过了中国内部进行印钱购物，各位或许会问，中国可不可以也像美国那样，进行跨国印钱消费，我们也去剥削别人？ The answer is naturally no. 决定一个国家能否进行国际印钱购物的最基本前提有三个：一是内部条件，即这个国家的货币必须是国际货币；二是国际环境，即国际范围内存在普遍的、至少是可观的产能过剩；三是必须在信用货币的时代，金本位时代是不可能进行国际印钱消费的（比如布雷顿森林体系时期的美国如果大规模开动印钞机，世界各国对美元产生不信任就会拿着美元来挤兑美国的黄金。只有这个体系解体后，摆脱了黄金束缚的美元才像脱缰的野马）。 国际环境自然是没问题，在可预见的历史时期内，世界范围内的产能过剩都将长期存在，唯一可能使得这种情况发生逆转的是各国都学会了自己印钱购物。我们的问题是没有内部的条件，人民币不是国际货币。从理论上说，所有国际货币的发行国都可以进行印钱购物。 世界上有哪些国家的货币属于国际货币呢？根据华东师范大学黄泽民教授的观点，衡量一国的货币是否是国际货币有三条标准： 一是在国际贸易的清算当中，这个货币是否能够用来作为计价和清算的货币。现在大约全球贸易总额当中有65%左右是用美元来进行清算的。 二是这种货币在多大程度上被作为一个国际间的货币来使用。衡量一个国家货币国际化的程度主要还是在看在离岸市场上的活动。 三是这种货币作为国际储备货币，就是他国中央银行持有这个货币作为储备。美元现在在全球官方外汇储备中所占的比重达到了60%多一些，其次是欧元以及其他的一些货币。 根据以上标准，世界各国货币中最符合国际货币定义的前六名是：①美元；②欧元；③日元；④英镑；⑤加元；⑥澳元。 人民币从各方面看都还差得远，目前国际贸易中用人民币进行结算的比例很小，中国今年与东南亚有一部分贸易是用人民币结算的；人民币更不是国际储备货币。 为什么说所有国际货币的发行国都可以进行国际印钱购物呢？ 就是因为他们的货币是国际结算货币和国际储备货币，能被众多的国家接受和信任。那么，这些国家直接印刷本国货币就可以从任何接受此货币的国家中购买物品，同时由于这些国家是产能过剩的，只要你印钱的数量不超过过剩产能的量，就能买到相应的东西。而由于你每印一笔钱都对应地使该国多生产等额的货物，所以不会导致你的货币贬值。 一国货币作为国际结算和国际储备的程度越大，它在全球进行印钱购物的力度就可以越大。 为什么不拥有国际货币地位的国家就不能进行国际印钱购物呢？ 很简单，这样的国家要去国际上买东西，必须把自己的货币换成以上六种国际货币（多数情况下是美元），你才能买到。而你要换以上几种国际货币，不是说你拿着本国的货币去别国换，人家就会换给你。人家不会跟你换的，因为你的货币不是储备货币，人家不可能换了你的货币储备起来。那么，这样的国家要想在国际上买东西，就必须自己建立国际货币储备，也就是外汇储备。 外汇储备是怎么建立起来的？ 当然是卖东西给这些国家啊。所以，非国际货币国家买外国货的本质是物物交换，而不可能进行国际印钱购物，直接用废纸去换别国的货物。而你从这些非国际货币国家不得不存储国际货币的行为，又能反过来更加理解这些国际货币发行国可以利用这点进行印钱购物。 你要储备他们的货币，你就得用物品来换他们的货币，即使明知道他们是印出来的，你也没办法。 以中国为例，中国要在国际上买东西，直接用人民币人家是不收的，你用人民币去别国换国际货币，也是换不来的。我们只能靠中国自己建立的两万亿美元的外汇储备，而这些储备每一分钱都是靠出口产品换来的。中国人在国际上买东西，从本质上看，就只能是实打实的物物交换。虽然从理论上说拥有国际货币的六个国家都可以进行国际印钱购物，但是真正在用这一招的主要还是美国和欧盟，其他几种货币的国家，一则因为害怕印钱购物会损害其货币的国际信誉和币值，二则其货币的国际化程度也不是太高，三则可能压根没认识到印钱购物的原理，他们进行国际印钱购物的规模是很小的。 国际印钱购物是一种极为“不道德”的空手套白狼的行为，导致这一极为不公正、极为荒谬的国际经济现象的是主权货币作为了国际货币。 是美国从上世纪70年代末开了先河，不与黄金挂钩的美元是罪恶的开始。要消除这种不公正的现象，最好的办法当然是取消主权货币作为国际货币，建立不属于任何国家的世界元。事实上，这样的构想早在第二次世界大战结束后就郑重地被提出过。 1943年第二次世界大战进入尾声时，国际货币发行权的争夺战在英美两国之间展开。争来争去，处于劣势的英国考虑到经济实力不够，干脆提出一个“国际清算同盟计划”（由著名经济学家凯恩斯提出），主张在自由兑换的原则下，创建一种以黄金为基础、独立于任何国家的国际货币。而美国则坚持一个“国际稳定基金计划”，主张设立一种国际外汇基金，以黄金为基础，在自由兑换的的原则下创建一种与美元相联系的国际货币单位，实际上就是要把美元作为国际货币。 激烈的争论持续了一年之久，到1944年7月1日，在美国新罕布什尔州的布雷顿森林举行的有44国参加的联合国货币金融会议，最终确立了以美元为中心的国际货币体系。非常不幸，英国的超主权国际货币提案破产，为美元今后在全球作恶埋下了祸端。 这一次金融危机导致人民开始重新思考建立超主权国际货币的问题，幸运的是，这次的提出者是中国央行行长周小川。2009年3月23日央行行长周小川在央行网站发表题为《周小川：关于改革国际货币体系的思考》的署名文章。文章指出，现在的国际货币体系由于使用主权信用货币作为国际储存货币，因此具有内在缺陷与系统性风险。全球应该创立一种与主权国家脱钩的，能保持币值长期稳定的货币。 我认为这个时候重提这样的主张是合适宜的，但是真要实现目标，不是光靠提意见，而必须有实际的行动来给美国压力。对美元最大的压力莫过于推动人民币的国际化，而当前正是推动人民币国际化的大好时机。推动人民币国际化，不是要用人民币去取代美元，而是要让美国到最后不得不放弃美元作为国际货币，同意实行超主权的国际货币制度。 我们回到中国赶超美国的话题，在中国实行内部印钱购物的情况下，这一问题的答案有什么变化呢？ 印钱购物把原来白送给美国人的、而很多中国人也需要却买不起的那部分货物都分到了中国人手中。由于这部分财富是如此的巨大，印钱购物必然会使中国人迅速地过上富足生活，乃至于达到马克思设想的物质极大丰富的程度。 我想说，中国自己印钱购物而不再需要美国帮忙，很快就会把中国变成美国，当然这只是在人民生活的富足程度以及人均GDP上变得和美国不相上下，也就是我在本篇导言中所言的，实现了对美国的“初级超越”。 印钱购物会使得人民的富足程度很快赶上美国，我这样说的意思就是中国人享用的产品会很快达到美国人的水准，这就是真实的富足。这不需要多解释，印钱购物不就是把天量的产品分到了有需要的中国民众手中吗。 至于账面上的人均GDP为什么也会赶上美国，这就需要一番解释。 第一个原因在于，印钱购物也一样会导致中国以人民币计算的GDP的剧增。 关于这一点，我们需要考察一下印钱购物前后中国GDP会产生什么样的变化。 首先，印钱购物之后，本来出口到欧美的那部分货物大部分转而内销了，各位知道中国出口产品的价格一般都会低于内销的价格，这样一来账面上的GDP直接就提高了很多，那么本来每年出口美国的3000亿美元（按汇率价值700亿人民币），转而内销说不定就价值1000亿人民币。其次，印钱购物会导致中国的总产品比印钱购物之前的总产品多得多，这是因为，印钱购物之前中国的产能在满足内销和出口之后仍然是存在过剩的，印钱购物就是能把全部的过剩产能都激发出来，一点产能也不剩，所以必然生产出比原来多很多的产品。这些新增的产品计价进入GDP，导致GDP大增。 第二个原因则更凶猛，因为中国不再依赖出口了（印钱购物导致产品内销完全没问题了），那么人民币兑美元就可以拼命升值，怎么升值也无所谓，升到和美元1∶1也无所谓，这样带给中国GDP的变化是什么呢？当然是以美元计算的中国GDP翻了六七倍嘛。我们和美国比GDP当然要换算成一样的货币计价，这样一算我们的GDP总值一下子就是美国人的两倍了（美国2009年GDP是14万亿美元，中国是4万亿美元，中国涨七倍后刚好是美国的两倍）。 这样算还是保守的，因为第一点说了，印钱购物会导致汇率不变的情况下中国GDP（以人民币计算）剧增，这个因素结合汇率升值，那么我们的GDP美元值就不止美国的两倍了。比方说吧，印钱购物使得我们2010年的GDP从2009年的33.5万亿剧增为50万亿人民币，那么当人民币兑美元变为一比一时，我国的GDP也就是50万亿美元，这时候就差不多是美国的四倍了。算人均GDP也和美国差不多了。 中国存在一夜暴富的机会，就是这么个意思。印钱购物就能够使得中国的人均GDP迅速赶超美国，如果把这算作是中国超过了美国的话，那么中国超过美国根本不需要多少年，搞不好一两年就够了。你如果要推翻我的说法，就请指出我上述两点的漏洞。 中国的印钱购物会不会马上导致美国经济的末日？ 如果没有了从中国白白得来的、每年价值两三千亿美元的货物，美国人还能过上富足的生活吗？ 只需简单一想，就会得出美国人一夜之间就会告别富足生活，生活水平一落千丈，很可能跌到温饱线上。这其实是美国人被打回原形。Why do you say this way? 因为他们本来就不创造财富，而是靠印钱购物的伎俩白白卷走中国的财富过上了富足生活。现在中国自己知道印钱购物了，他们就立刻被打回原形了，变成了穷人，他们本来就该是穷人。 但我要告诉各位，这还不是美国经济的末日，美国人只会在短暂的瞬间被打回原形，他们会马上找到解决办法。解决的办法很简单，他们可以在全球寻找替代中国为他们干活的国家，比如印度就是一个很好的选择，与中国相比是次优选择。现在印度之所以没有被美国人选择为为他们劳作的对象，就是因为有中国这个最优的选择。 一旦中国自己印钱消费了，解散了“中美国”，不再为美国人干活，那么美国人立马就会找到印度这个替补，组成“印美国”，印度也有十亿人口嘛，好几亿的廉价劳动力，还个个懂英文。这么多廉价劳动力开发出来必定又形成巨大的“过剩产能”，印度人也开始像今天的中国一样每年生产十几亿双皮鞋、8000万台彩电……统统在国内卖不出去，怎么办，美国人印钱购物来把这些统统买走。 于是，中美国解体之后，印美国继续保障着美国人的富足生活。印度人开始沉浸在外汇储备不断攀升的“惊喜”中，十年之后面对几万亿的美元储备开始发愁不知道用来干什么，最后只能借给美国人，买美国国债和其他金融证券，于是乎开始了美国印钱购物的循环，和当初与中国的一模一样。 那么什么情况下美国经济的末日才会真正到来呢？ 很简单，就是当全世界没有任何国家愿意为美国人白干活的时候，美国经济的末日就到来了。 换句话说，只有当印度等国家也和中国一样开始自己实施印钱购物、而不再需要美国“帮助”的时候，美国经济就彻底完蛋了，美国人的富足生活从此将画上一个句话，他们将长久地回归贫穷的生活。 你要问了，难道美国人不可以自己恢复制造业吗，他们在迫不得已的时候可以重新开始生产那些生活用品啊，衣帽鞋袜、彩电冰箱、音响电话，等等，他们可以重新建立起来。 的确，有这种可能，我在前文中也提到过长期中他们可以重建这些产业。 但是我还是重复我的另一句话，理论的可能不等于现实的可能，美国要重建这些制造业面临巨大的工会吸血鬼的阻碍，如果美国真要恢复制造业，则必须把工会吸血鬼除掉，你要知道这意味着什么，很可能是全国大动乱。因为美国工会实在是太强大了，他们誓死捍卫美国工人高的要命的工资福利，他们有能力联合起全国的工人天天游行，天天搞对抗。高昂的人工成本问题解决不了，重建制造业就是做梦。 退一步讲，假如美国真能破除这些障碍重建制造业，那也将是十分漫长的过程，没有几十年是不可能成功的，这漫长的时期的苦日子，过惯了好日子的美国人能忍受吗？说不定早就爆发“社会主义革命”把美国的制度砸烂了。 我在第一章中举的贵族学校的例子，其实是在影射美国，美国其实就是一个世界货物银行。在任何时点上，都有本来属于世界各国的价值6万多亿美元的货物暂存在美国。美国与那个贵族学校唯一的区别就是代管的东西不同，后者代管的是货币，前者代管的是货物。贵族学校和银行都是在任何时点都有巨额的资金拿在手里，新来的资金就可以用来支付给那些要取走资金的人。 而美国呢，全世界有6万亿的美元储备，这些钱都是各国与美国的贸易顺差积累的，这些钱各国可以随时去美国买回来相应的货物，换言之，不就是世界各国有价值6万亿美元的货物暂存在美国吗？ 六万亿美元是什么概念呢？ 档次不错的车大概也就两万美元，美国3亿人，这相当于每个美国人平均有一辆好车其实是外国人的，外国人随时可以来买走这些车，你想想，3亿辆车被外国人买走了，没有了汽车的美国还是美国吗？所以只要各国都把外汇去美国换回产品来，美国这个世界货物银行就破产了。 但一般情况下，不会发生这种现象，这就类似于银行发生挤兑现象，大家都去银行取钱，银行当然破产，但是现实中很少见到这种情况发生。什么时候才会发生挤兑，只有当银行信用崩溃的时候，大多数人都对银行失去信任的时候才会如此。如果这个银行是国有大银行，它的信用则是和国家捆绑在一起的，只有当国家失去民心的时候，才会发生银行挤兑。 不过周其仁先生讲过的中国的一个例外，就不是由于国家和银行信用问题导致的挤兑“……为了进行物价改革……先放开了名烟名酒价格，20来块的酒一下子就变成200块……于是老百姓就得出一个简单公式，价格放开就等于物价涨10倍……1988年那次《中共中央关于改革物价工资体系的决定》一发表，竟变成了一个抢购动员令。没人好好学习中央的决定，都去买东西了……凡是不要票不要本的东西见什么买什么……人们为了要抢购就要把银行的存款拿出来，这下银行傻眼了，因为银行的钱已经全部用到基建项目里去了。现在那么多人同一时间取钱，哪能应付……” 其实呢，美国这个世界货物银行也一样，如果要被世界各国挤兑，可以是发生了各国对美国经济的信任危机，也可以是某种偶然性因素。 当然，偶然性因素的可能性极小，我们需要关注的是什么样的信任危机会导致各国都到美国挤兑货物。 其实这个问题和上一节的问题是同解的，只有在全世界都发现美国印钱购物的骗局，世界各国都学会了自己印钱购物的时候，世界才会彻底看清楚被打回原形的美国空壳经济。一旦看到这个原形，世界各国一下就傻眼了，赶紧去美国换些货物回来（可以换的只有美国历年从别国买回来的旧货以及少量美国生产的新产品，美国每年生产的产品是极少的，我说了它的服务业已经超过80%。美国这些新产品不够世界各国挤兑多长时间），去晚了说不定什么整个美国都被买空了。 你要问了，不是说有印钱购物的规律吗，各国拿美元去美国购物，有多少钱不就会使美国新冒出来等值的产品吗？ 各位，别忘了印钱购物的前提，它必须在产能过剩的情况下才会有效，今天的美国是产能过剩吗？笑话，它根本就没有产能了。各国去挤兑，唯一的后果将是导致美国物价飞涨，因为这么多的美元挤进来购物，而美国范围内的产品无法增加，总需求涨两倍，物品数量总量没变，物价水平就涨两倍。 这种货物的挤兑的在金融上叫做什么呢？就是美元危机嘛。各国去美国挤兑物品，同时不就是“抛售”美元的过程吗。 大家都抛弃美元，不就是美元危机吗？ 但是千万别低估了美国的“无耻”，如果真出现这种情况，美国政府一定会实行强硬措施阻止各国去美国购物的。第一次美元危机的时候他们就这样干过，前文我们说过这个事情了，本来按照布雷顿森林体系，美国必须无条件按照35美元1盎司的比例给任何一个拿着美元的人兑换黄金。然而，当越战导致美国政府巨