Chapter 22 Chapter 22 "Close the door to catch a thief" and the selection of the best point

As we all know, the rise and fall of stock market prices are limited and fluctuate.When the stock price rises to a certain point, it will inevitably fall. We call the highest point of the price a "peak". In the same way, when the stock price falls to a certain point, it will inevitably rise. We call the lowest point of the price a "trough."How to grasp the peak and valley is quite difficult.But it is also the most crucial.Mastering the "peak", you can sell stocks at the right time to obtain the maximum profit and avoid the loss caused by lowering the price; at the "bottom", if the judgment is accurate, you can buy the cheapest stock to obtain the benefit of the stock price increase.There is no doubt that "peak" and "trough" are the two most accurate points for stock market investors to buy or sell, because no matter whether they are short or long, buying or selling at the most accurate point will get the greatest benefit, so Since the stock market, investors have been looking for the secret to capture these two points.

However, due to the variability of stock prices, it is difficult for people to determine the top and bottom. If we blindly wait for these two points, people will often suffer heavy losses.For example, before 1987, the "bull market" in the U.S. stock market lasted for five years. Only from March 1986 to August 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Index soared from 1686 points to 2720 points. Vague, people's understanding of the potential crisis behind the prosperity, so when people were optimistically waiting for the peak, on October 19, the US stock market plummeted, and countless people went bankrupt.The stock market motto also tells people: "You should never buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest price." Therefore, for stockholders, the wise way is to settle for the next best thing and choose the "second peak" and "second bottom". Selling stocks at the "sub-peak point" and buying stocks at the "sub-bottom point" can also reap huge profits, and it is much safer than blindly pursuing the most punctual point.

The stock price trend goes from falling to rising, and the "second bottom point" of the market is one point more than the "valley point"; similarly, the "second inquiry point" is also one point more than the "peak point".For example, in the "V-shaped bottom", there is only one bottom point, but there are two sub-bottom points, one is a certain point before the stock price falls to the "bottom point", and the other is a certain point that the stock price must pass through to recover.In terms of "double bottom", there are two lowest points and three secondary bottom points.

The opportunity to sell stocks at the "second peak" or buy stocks at the "second bottom point" is one more time than the chance to sell or prepare to buy at the peak, so that you can exchange for more profit opportunities with a small loss and avoid When the market fell through the peak, they sold stocks in a rush, so that they could not sell them and suffered losses; when the stock price fell to the bottom, they frantically bought stocks and failed to buy stocks, and lost the opportunity to make profits.It is often much easier to deal with "secondary peaks" and "secondary bottoms" than peaks and valleys.

Around February 40, 1990, the stock price of "development stocks" in the Shenzhen stock market was 80 yuan per share. Seeing that the profit was small and the risk was high, investors sold their stocks one after another, causing the stock price to plummet, so that the government had to limit the decline in the stock price, but there was no way to recover. At that time, the companies were about to distribute At the time of the bonus shares, the stock fell continuously, indicating that the speculative nature of the stock market was restricted and there was a one-sided situation. At the same time, this was also an adjustment to the excessively high stock market price.It tells people that when the stock price increase is decreasing day by day and it has become the end of the battle, the stock should be sold in time to avoid risks.At the beginning of the decline in the Shenzhen stock market, many people still had illusions about the recovery of the stock market, and they did not make timely moves at the second high point, which resulted in missed opportunities.When Shenzhen's "development stocks" fell to 60 yuan per share, some people and even some experts estimated that the bottom was approaching, but who knew that the stock price continued to fall, because the government's price limit has been adjusted from the original 3% to 0.5. %, although the stock price decline has slowed down, it is still difficult to judge whether it is close to the bottom.From the perspective of the net value of the stock, the market value is still far from the net value.In a Shenzhen securities company, a young man was worried about the prospects of the stock market. He wanted to sell the stocks in his hands, but he was afraid that the stock prices would rise again. Wouldn’t all his previous efforts be wasted if he held on to the stocks for a long time?Later, under the dissuasion of a large shareholder, he decided to stick to it.Because this big investor bought the original stock, he still had the confidence to make a relative loss but absolutely make a profit even when the stock fell continuously.It can be seen that if you do not grasp the "best time" for investment in time and make a decisive move, you will inevitably fall into a dilemma.

Of course, for stock investors, it is also difficult to choose the "sub-peak" and "sub-bottom".Due to the fickleness of the stock market, sometimes the "bull" spirit is soaring, and the stock price soars, and sometimes the "bear spirit" is pervasive, and the stock price plummets.In this case, you should use the "filter rule" in the technical analysis of stock prices, which is most suitable as a reference for operating stocks at the end of a rising trend or at the end of a falling trend.After the stock price has risen for a period of time, the most confused investors are those who hold shares, except for empty-handed investors.Because after the market sprints, the investors who hold shares are secretly happy about the high price difference on the one hand, but on the other hand they are worried that if the market reverses, the profits that are about to be obtained will be wiped out.After the stock price has fallen for a period of time, empty-handed and short-sellers also have confusion about whether to cover or not to cover.Because, if you don't cover, if the market picks up, wouldn't it be an empty joy?If it is covered, if the market continues to slide, wouldn't it be regrettable!

The best way to solve these problems is the filter method. , the role of this rule is to sacrifice a small amount of profit at a fixed rate in order to grasp the operating rule of the most satisfactory profit.Investors who adopt the filter rule do not hope to make a "sufficient" market, but only intend to obtain the most satisfactory profit in a market. The practice of the filter rule is actually very simple. Investors first draw up a ratio that they are willing to earn less in a market, and this ratio is called a filter.For example, an investor does not sell the highest point during a rising market, but only sells the second highest point, and the gap between the highest point and the second highest point in his mind is 10%, then the investor's filter is 10%.In addition, the rate at which an investor is willing to earn less is 5%, and his filter is 5%.In the same way, the finalization of buying sub-lows in a downtrend also depends on investors' wishes.

Filters are subjective ratios set by investors themselves. Investors who also use the filter rule may not necessarily have the same "buying point" and "selling point". The main reason is that the filter ratios set by each individual are different. Using the filter rule as the basis for technical operations, the decision of its "buy point" lies in when the stock price rises to the investor's subjective ratio after falling.For example, if the filter ratio set by an investor is 10, then no matter how the stock price fluctuates, and no matter how the stock price falls or rises, as long as the recovery rate is less than 10%, it will not be considered for buying; Once the decline stops and the rebound rate reaches 10%, it should be bought immediately and resolutely.Similarly, if the ratio of the filter tip is 5% or more, the decision of its "buying point" can also be deduced by analogy.As for the decision of the "selling point" of the filter rule, it depends on the subjective ratio of the stock price falling back to the investor after the end of the stock price rise. In other words, the selling point of the filter rule is only selected when the stock market is exhausted. The set filter ratio is 15%. No matter how the market rises, as long as it does not fall back to 15%, it will not be considered for selling. Wait until the rising trend fails and the stock price falls back to the set filter ratio before selling. If the filter ratio set by the investor is 5%, 10%, or even 20%, the operation of its "selling point" can also be deduced by analogy.The basic assumptions of the filter rule have the following two points: First, since it is difficult to absolutely grasp the lowest price or the highest price in stock investment, why not use the second-lowest price or the second-highest price as a "buying point" or "selling point";

Second, when buying and selling stocks, you don’t have to deliberately earn a whole segment of the market, but prepare a certain percentage of the market for others, which is safe for investors and you don’t have to worry about making mistakes. It can be seen that the filter rule is indeed a simple and effective operation method. If you can not be greedy for the most accurate price and use this operation method, then you will be able to accurately grasp the "second-highest price" and "second-highest price". The sub-low price" to earn the maximum benefit from it is as delightful as winning a battle of annihilation in a war. This is called "closing the door to catch thieves" in the art of war.

"Close the door and catch thieves" is the fourth strategy in the fourth set of melee strategies in "Thirty-Six Strategies": "Small enemies are trapped. Peel them, and there will be disadvantages." It means that to deal with weak enemies, they must be surrounded and wiped out.Scattered small groups of enemies, although weak, can move freely and are hard to guard against deceit, which is not conducive to quick pursuit.It should be surrounded on all sides, and if they don't slip through the net, they can be wiped out in one fell swoop.And if the enemy is allowed to run away and then pursued again, the enemy will have to fight to the death if he has hope of escape.This strategy is a kind of thought of annihilation war. It does not necessarily only focus on "a small enemy traps it". When the initiative in the war is grasped, it can also be used to annihilate the enemy's main force based on the comparison of the strength of the enemy and ourselves. Sometimes it is also possible to set up an ambush to lure the enemy into submission.

When the Anti-Japanese War broke out, our army and the Japanese invaders were engaged in a tug-of-war in North China.Among them, the great victory at Pingxingguan can be said to be an excellent example of annihilation war. In late September, the main force of the 115th Division of our Eighth Route Army rushed to Daying Town, west of Pingxingguan, Shanxi to gather and wait.Pingxingguan is the junction of Shanxi and Hebei, and the Japanese invaders chose this weak place to attack.At this time, the enemy had already attacked Lingqiu. Our army made a decisive decision and decided to use the danger of Pingxing Pass to cooperate with the friendly army to defend from the front. On the night of the 23rd, the division led the main force to Ranzhuang, which was more than 30 miles away from Pingxingguan.On the road from Shangzhai to Ranzhuang, the sound of rumbling cannons can already be heard. On the 24th, there was constant artillery fire at Pingxingguan. Judging from the situation, the enemy may attack on a large scale the next day. On the 25th, our army deployed the main force on the mountain line south of the about ten-mile-long automobile road from Huxingguan to Donghenan Township, and at the same time sent a team of troops to quickly cross the automobile road from south to north in covert movements. Occupy a high ground north of Dongnan Town in order to cut off the enemy's rear, and send another team out from the direction of Guangou to meet the attack of the friendly army.At twilight, the enemy's attack on Pingxingguan's military deployment was already visible. At this time, another brigade came from the direction of Lingqiu, with a strength of about 4,000 people: more than 100 vehicles in front, followed by 200 The remaining carriages, followed by a small number of cavalry, formed a complete line and entered our army's ambush circle. At this time, the division headquarters issued an order to attack, and our entire line of troops attacked the enemy in a condescending manner.Because before the attack, we received the assistance of the people, blocked the news, and carried out secret operations, so the enemy at this time did not expect that our ambush was in front of them.The battle entered hand-to-hand combat from the beginning, and our army launched a fierce attack across the board. The ravine more than ten miles long was full of the sound of grenade explosions and shouts of killing.Although some people resisted stubbornly, our army has occupied all the favorable terrain, and the ravine is under our army's control.Our army shot fiercely at the enemy crowded in the Jiagou road from the high ground. No matter how stubborn the enemy was, they were finally wiped out under the impact of our army.After several days of hand-to-hand combat, all the enemies within ten miles east of Pingxingguan were wiped out, with more than 3,000 enemy casualties, more than 100 cars and more than 200 carts destroyed. Our army seized a field artillery and more than 20 machine guns , more than 1,000 rifles, and more than 50 horses.This victory was the first battle of annihilation since the National War of Resistance, which increased the confidence of the military and civilians across the country that the War of Resistance would be victorious. From the example of the Pingxingguan Great Victory, we can clearly see that to use the strategy of "closing the door to catch thieves", we must take an overall look at the overall situation, properly choose the time and place of "closing the door", use tactics according to the situation, and adapt to the situation.Isn't this the same as what we described earlier, using filters to properly grasp the most accurate point of investment?