Chapter 21 Chapter 21 "Trying stones for directions" and exploratory investment

When the majority of stockholders invest in stocks, they often encounter situations where they cannot distinguish the market trend clearly, so they dare not take rash actions.Yes, the ups and downs of stock prices are so accidental, and it is not someone who can accurately predict the result. If you are not careful, you will lose the opportunity, or even lose your money. The Shenzhen stock market in southern my country began to decline on October 10, 1990 after more than half a year of soaring.In the last few days of 1990, stockholders were more like ants in a hot pot. They went to the brokerage departments of various securities companies to observe the developments. They were afraid of losing good opportunities, but they dared not invest in the market.However, the facts are ruthless. The stock price, like building blocks that were built too high and too fast, collapsed sharply, causing stock investors to complain.A master's degree student in economics from a key university in the south was an intern in Shenzhen in early 1990. He had a wealth of stock theory knowledge and had never had the opportunity to try his hand at the stock market. Now he can finally show his skills.He borrowed thousands of dollars from his friends and added his own savings, and used 8,000 yuan to buy several shares of a certain company's stock from others.Buy at a low price, sell at a high price, and make a fortune in the blink of an eye.As the stock price rose day by day, by September, he had made a net profit of 4,000 yuan.At this time, he thought that he had the chance to win, so he handed over the stock to a relative in Shenzhen for safekeeping. He went back to school to do a thesis in early October. Continued to rise, and waited quietly at school for another 8,000 yuan from his 8,000 yuan... When the news of the stock market plummeted, he panicked and hurriedly called his relatives in Shenzhen, shouting in a trembling voice: "Throw it! Throw it! You can throw as much as you can." In the end, he only had 2,000 yuan of capital left, and 6,000 yuan was lost in the stock market crash, which is amazing!

At this time, the Shenzhen stock market was lifeless. On December 26, only 1,160 shares of development stocks were traded. On the 27th, 5,160 shares were traded. On the 28th, there seemed to be a slight turn for the better, with 8,500 shares traded.But the vast majority are still on the sidelines.Is the stock price going to rise?All kinds of news make people indecisive.Some people speculate: "The New Year is approaching, and many people need cash to repay the stocks they bought due to borrowing. Maybe there will be a turnaround after New Year's Day." Therefore, people pin their hopes on after New Year's Day, with nervousness and excitement. The mood, looking forward to the stock market back to life.As a result, after New Year's Day in 1991, just after the market opened on January 3, the number of shares traded was as high as 21,240 shares. This is indeed exciting news.However, most people are still on the sidelines, leaving the stock market that should be recovering deserted.In the days that followed, the trading volume still did not improve much, and the stock price still fell. This drop lasted for several months, and it is still unclear when it will recover.

What does the long-term continuous decline of the Shenzhen stock market show?First of all, the government's intervention policy in the stock market changes frequently, which limits speculation and makes it difficult for the stock market to become active again.When the Shenzhen stock market was heating up, many people dared to buy their stocks without knowing what the listed companies were doing.Most people have this mentality: the shareholding system is an important part of the reform, and we are supporting the reform by buying stocks, so the government will not let us collapse.A foreign stock expert commented on this: "They may have indeed grasped the crux of the problem. As long as the stock market is not really subject to market mechanisms, there will not be too much risk. However, the use of administrative orders cannot fundamentally Solving the problem online is an emergency solution. Once this seemingly effective solution becomes a regular behavior, it will seriously distort the developing stock market.” Facts have verified his words.Due to the frenzy of the Shenzhen stock market, the municipal government launched a stock trading price limit policy through the Shenzhen Branch at the end of May, stipulating that the price of entrusted trading should not be higher than 10% of the closing price of the previous business day, and thereafter, the daily increase should not exceed 5%. %, in order to induce it, it is also stipulated that the decline can reach 5%. As a result, the trading volume has dropped sharply, and the phenomenon of "throwing less and buying more, there is no market when there is a line" appears.This is extremely abnormal.

Secondly, the ability of Shenzhen stockholders to bear the blow of the stock price drop is very weak. When the stock price falls, they will sell it desperately, resulting in the stock price falling at a faster speed.At the same time, very few people are willing to take risks. Even if several stockholders discuss the situation together and decide to jointly buy stocks, they end up with weak forces and are unable to turn the tide. The stock price continues to fall, and they also suffer heavy losses. , and no one will dare to make similar attempts in the future. Again, the blind obedience psychology of stockholders is at work again.Everyone is acting on the face of others. If others buy it, I will buy it, and if others sell it, I will sell it.In the previous section "Fishing in Troubled Waters", we have analyzed for you that this phenomenon of "lifting the sedan chair" and "sit in the sedan chair" can only make a small number of people profitable. For most people, it is often half a beat too late. Wouldn't it be a big loss to follow up at the peak and follow up at the bottom, which is also an important reason for the sharp drop in stock prices.

Finally, securities firms in our country have neither the obligation nor the ability to intervene in the market, which is extremely unfavorable to the development of the stock market.After large fluctuations, people have lingering fears about stocks. "Once bitten by a snake, ten years are afraid of a well rope." Due to the existence of the above factors, it will take quite a long time for the stock market to return to its previous prosperous and prosperous period. This is indeed a great pity for my country's stock market. So, for investors, what countermeasures should they take when the stock market is uncertain?In the section "Watching the Fire from the Other Side", we have already introduced to you that at this time, we should stick to the principle of "not seeing clearly, not operating", go through the period of hesitation, and take corresponding actions after the situation is clear or the truth is determined. method.However, if you are too afraid of everything, like Shenzhen stockholders, blindly expecting and missing the opportunity, you will lose the meaning of adopting this strategy.Therefore, for some bold and careful investors, in addition to properly using the method of "watching the fire from the other side", they can also try the strategy of "throwing stones to ask the way", that is: tentative investment "throwing stones to ask the way" The third plan in the fourth set of melee plans in "The Plan" (the original text is not available). The explanation of "throwing stones and asking for directions" is actually very simple, and its use is also very common, with good intentions and malicious intentions.The most common thing is to inquire about the current situation of friends in front of others, which can also be regarded as "throwing stones to ask for directions".But it is not a matter of contention to become a "trick", and it is mostly used to deliberately calculate others. "Throwing stones" is to test other people's movements, and "asking for directions" is to decide one's own actions.The most commonly used tricks are those thieves who want to steal into the house, throw stones in first, and listen to whether there is any response in the courtyard.

In this way, this trick seems like a small trick, but it is not.There is no distinction between the use of this strategy, it can be used to kill chickens with a sledgehammer, or it can be used to move a thousand catties in fours and twos.Please see the story of "Zhang Liang decided to take Xianyang". At the end of Qin Dynasty, Liu Bang led his army to Xianyang.If you want to take Xianyang, you have to go through Xiaoguan. The situation at this pass is dangerous and heavily guarded, so it should be taken wisely.At this time, Zhang Liang offered advice to Liu Bang, "Han Rong, the leader of Weiguan, is a merchant, so he should use his strength to move." Liu Bang asked people to set up many flags in front of the pass and on the mountain as suspicious soldiers, and sent counselor Li Shiqi and others to go to the pass with a lot of money. Persuade Han Rong and others to surrender.

After Li Shiqi saw Han Rong, he explained why he came, but Han Rong replied: "I have been in Qin Lu for a long time, and now I am fighting back, which seems to be inconsistent with righteousness. Can you give me three days, and I will discuss with the generals whether to fight or not?" Surrender, it's up to everyone, sir, go back to Guanxia first, and come back in three days." Li Shiqi went back to the army to wait. Here, all the generals in the pass discussed the matter together, whether it was a war or a peace, there was no consensus, and Han Rong couldn't make up his mind, so he naturally relaxed the defense of the pass.Three days later, Li Shiqi went back to the gate to ask about the result, and Han Rong said that everyone had different opinions.Li Shiqi pushed the boat smoothly and said: "The general attaches great importance to loyalty, which is worthy of admiration. My lord Liu Bang also sympathizes with the general's situation. Today, I offer you a thousand taels of gold to show your respect for the general. My lord has ordered Temporarily withdraw the troops to seek other schemes." Han Rong was overjoyed: "Since this is the case, I have the right to accept this gift. I hope that everyone will regard peace as the most important thing, so as not to lose their lives. I hope you will go back and convey this intention."

Li Shiqi went back to see Liu Bang and told him the details. Zhang Liang said, "Since there is an opportunity to take advantage of, it's a good idea to use it." , Each carried a load of firewood and grass, hidden in it, went around to the back of Xiaoguan Pass from a small path, set fire to the mountain, and ordered General Fan Kuai to lead the army to raise a banner, march in with drums and shouts, and try their best to attack the front pass. Han Rongbei was respected by the crucian carp state, Jin Cen, and thought that there would be no war before the age of 20. He drank and had fun all day long without making any preparations. Suddenly, his men reported that the enemy brigade had rushed to the front of the pass. Han Rong hurriedly ordered to meet with his soldiers. Dare, before the words fell, someone came to report that the mountain was full of fire after the pass, and there were endless shouts for killing. Han Rong was at a loss for what to do, and the Qin army suffered heavy casualties.As soon as Han Rong threatened that Xue Xiong was under attack, he abandoned Xiaoguan and ran back to Xianyong. Liu Pi took advantage of the situation and exhausted his teachings, and finally invaded Xianyang and destroyed the Qin Dynasty.

The tactic of "throwing stones to ask for directions" is the most common method, and anyone can use it, clowns can use it to jump over walls, generals can use it to explore camps, and guests can use it to maneuver around.For the majority of stockholders, Li said that when the direction of the stock market is unclear, "throwing stones and asking for directions"-exploratory investment can help you disintegrate.Not only can it play a role in stabilizing the market, but it can also make a profit.Just imagine that if the investment can be used flexibly for investors, the results must be very good.Their psychological burden will not be too heavy.This kind of technical operation method can protect investors from too much loss in case of encountering risks.Exploratory investment methods, in general.There are two opportunities to try it out. One is when the stock price has fallen for a long time and the market sentiment is light, but there are signs of stabilization, you can make a tentative investment; The number of people who are willing to sell stocks is gradually decreasing. At this time, all that should be bought are bought and all that should be sold are sold. The conditions conducive to short trading are lost, and tentative investment can be made.

What we have introduced to you above is the method of "asking for directions with stones" in the stock market. If it is skillfully used by the majority of stockholders in practice, and they can draw inferences from one instance, they will surely receive good results.