Chapter 23 Chapter 23 "Long and short-term trading" and long-term and short-term trading

In our daily life, we can often hear some elderly people teaching young people in such words: "Put your eyes on the long-term and avoid short-sightedness." Big fish." It seems that people have a long-term vision, don't rush for quick success, and don't covet short-term effects, which have become a rule of thumb for people to do things.However, in my opinion, this principle does not apply to every investor in the stock market.Gui believes that the stock market is ever-changing, and investors have different energy, financial resources, and experience. The so-called long-term interests and quick success can only be compared in relative terms, and vary from person to person, and must not be generalized.

Divided from the time range, investors can be divided into two types: one type is mainly engaged in long-term transactions, this kind of people seem to outsiders not to pay attention to immediate interests, but to long-term interests, they hold shares for a long time, short-term Those who trade for half a year, one year, or even more than ten years; the other type mainly focuses on short-term trading.In the eyes of outsiders, this kind of people seem to have no long-term interests, and only want to make money in the immediate future. They buy when they fall or sell when they rise. They hold stocks for a short period of time. shot.From a layman's point of view, the former group of people seems to have great ambitions, while the latter group of people are short-sighted and difficult to achieve great things.In fact, insiders know that no matter long-term or short-term, it is a reasonable and reasonable trading method formulated by investors according to their actual situation.

So, what is the basis for doing long-term or short-term?This requires a clear judgment on the general and small trends of stock price changes. The general trend of stock price changes, that is, the trend of long-term changes, is determined by stable and gradual factors such as the political and economic situation, the operation and management status of joint-stock companies, the long-term profitability of joint-stock companies, and changes in industrial structure; Minor trend, that is, the trend of short-term changes, is determined by factors such as occasional political and economic turmoil, temporary problems in the management of stock companies, and psychological changes in stock investors.In real life, stable and gradual factors are intertwined with natural and temporary factors. Therefore, even if the stock price is on the rise, it will fall due to accidental and temporary unfavorable factors. It's just that this kind of temporary price drop will generally not affect its long-term upward development trend; similarly, the stock price will rise due to accidental and temporary favorable factors when the general trend is downward. The favorable factors will also not affect their long-term downward trend.If you do not have a basic valuation of the general trend of various stock prices in the stock market, you will be confused by the small trend, make wrong judgments, and lead to investment failure.

Judging the general trend of the stock price is to predict and judge the future trend of the stock price based on the passive trend of the stock price and the various information at that time.After having an estimate of the general trend, investors then make a self-assessment and decide whether they choose the long-term or the short-term.Both long-term and short-term have their pros and cons.Generally speaking, the longer the time, the higher the profit. This is a very common investment common sense.For example, in 1916, an American bought 150 shares of U.S. Steel Corporation for $3,600, and then locked the shares in a bank safe. Forget about these stocks.When he died in 1969, relatives and friends cleaned up his estate, and inadvertently found that the stocks purchased more than half a century ago had increased from 150 shares to nearly 80,000 shares, with a market price of more than 30 million US dollars.This seems to indicate that long-term investment should be the easiest investment method, especially for those investors who are not skilled in technology, lack of knowledge, and limited energy, and cannot frequently enter the stock exchange.However, this trading method requires investors to have relatively strong financial strength and good psychological quality.Because once you engage in this type of investment, you need to deal with many situations, such as: the short-term turnover of funds is not effective, the short-term reverse movement of stock prices will temporarily damage your appearance, and you must face unfavorable situations that continue to appear every day , bear the huge losses caused by the wrong investment direction and so on.

From this point of view, long-term investors are generally strong, not seeking quick profits, and very calm.As long as such a person judges correctly, he can give full play to his strengths and earn a large amount of income.If you like to see your achievements quickly, but you don't have the patience to wait for a long time, and you are very concerned about your investment, you should be a short-term investor. Generally speaking, those who make short-term investment in the stock market are some young people who are full of energy, quick to respond, and able to keep up with the rapid changes in stock market prices.Short-term investment mainly depends on the "feeling" of the market and technical analysis, which is highly random, and investment behavior sometimes even needs to seriously deviate from the general trend of stock prices.For example, if a company is operating poorly and losing money year after year, the company's stock price has been falling all the way.However, many short-term investors believe that after a period of sharp decline, the stock should undergo a technical adjustment process, so they flock to buy the company's stock. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the company's stock will temporarily rise a little.It can be seen that the short-term investment method is very speculative in speculation.Therefore, investors need to spend a lot of energy to learn relevant knowledge, study the daily trend of the stock market, pay attention to various market information, and conduct analysis and judgment.But this is an effective investment method after all, and it is especially suitable for investors who have enough energy, enough time to enter and exit the market, and insight into stock price dynamics; but lack funds to bear the burden brought by long-term investors.For such investors, they should choose short-term trading. Instead of using their own limited funds to do long-term, they should use their own advantages to maximize their strengths and avoid weaknesses, so as to obtain rich profits in short-term trading.In "Thirty-six Strategies", this is called "distance and near attack."

"Far-distance and close-attack" is the fifth strategy in the fourth set of melee strategies in "Thirty-Six Strategies". "Forbidden in shape, benefit from near, harm from far away. Go up the fire and go down." It means: when the military target is limited by geographical conditions, those who attack the neighbors can profit, and go to attack the distant enemy country is harmful action.The flames are boiling, the river is flowing downwards, although the ambitions are different, they can also form temporary alliances.Enemy countries far away, even though they have opposing political views, should form temporary alliances with them in order to achieve the strategic goal of defeating them.

During the Warring States period of our country, when King Qin Zhaoxiang was in power, the princes of Xiangguo did not make an objective analysis of the situation of the countries at that time in order to expand their power, so they offered advice to King Qin: Our country should attack Qi and take their Gangshou place as Own.King Qin didn't know the details, so he prepared to act according to plan. Fan Sui, a well-known politician at that time, immediately went to lobby the King of Qin after learning about this.He said: "The state of Qin has sealed itself off for fifteen years now, and has not done much. There are reasons for the inability to wait, and there are also some mistakes in the king's strategy." King Qin Zhaoxiang didn't understand what he meant, so he asked: "Excuse me, sir. , Where did we make a mistake?" Fan Sui then replied: "It is a mistake for Marquis Yan to offer a plan to attack Qi by crossing South Korea and Wei. It takes time and a lot of manpower. Even if the attack is successful, it is not an easy task to send troops to guard such a distant place. Now, the king should make peace with the countries far away, appease them, and attack the countries that are close. In this way If you occupy even an inch of land, it will immediately become the land of Qin; Qin has such a vast territory and such a powerful military force. To conquer the weak South Korea and Wei is as easy as using a famous hound to catch a lame rabbit. Therefore, the king must personally conquer the central hub of Han and Wei region, in order to threaten Chu and Zhao. Chu and Zhao lose their barriers, and they must all come to attach to Qin. Chu and Zhao are both attached to Qin, so can the distant Qi and Yan still fight against Qin? "

King Qin Zhaoxiang was very happy after hearing Fan Wei's incisive insights, and immediately issued an order to stop attacking Qi.In 266 B.C., King Zhaoxiang of Qin granted Fan Sui the chancellor country, and gradually conquered the neighboring countries according to Fan Sui's strategy. In nearly ten years, Qin State adopted the strategy of "distance from distance and close attack" to destroy South Korea first, and then destroy Zhao Guo, followed by Wei, Chu, Yan, Qi and other countries were all eliminated. Qin finally unified China and became the first unified feudal autocratic centralized dynasty in history.

Fan Sui's good strategy has enabled Qin to avoid detours in the process of unifying the six countries; similarly, short-term trading, this kind of "distance and near attack" trading method, can also enable investors to obtain huge profits.In the stock market, this kind of short-term trading is generally called "snatching hats". The so-called "snatching cap" refers to buying stocks at a low price on the same day, and then selling the same type and the same amount of stocks at a high price, or selling stocks on the same day, and then buying the same type and the same amount of stocks at a low price. stocks in order to earn benefits from the difference.There were so many instances of this on the Hong Kong and Taiwan stock exchanges that the term is still used by the general public today.

"Snatching caps" can be said to be a technique. Investors need to judge the factors that affect the ups and downs of the market on the day, and at the same time, they need to observe the trend of the market.If it is bullish, buy first and then sell, if it is bearish, sell first and then buy.If the judgment is not accurate, "decapitation" and "hanging" are also common occurrences.Snatching a long hat and buying stocks, but the stock did not rise that day, but fell instead, so you have to sell it at a low price at a loss, which is called "broken head". Buying back at a loss is called "hanging empty".In addition, there will be "more kills and more" and "short squeeze" situations.More kills means that it is generally believed that the stock price will rise that day, so there are many people grabbing long hats. However, the stock price has not risen sharply, and they cannot sell at a high price. The situation of falling; short squeeze means that it is generally believed that the stock price will fall that day, so they all grab short hats, but the stock price has not fallen sharply, and they cannot buy at a low price. .Or there are strong bulls manipulating the market secretly, so that short sellers cannot obtain their payable quantity at the time of delivery, and they have to reluctantly settle the price under the condition that the price meets the demand of bulls.At this time, the bears are squeezed and eager to get out, while the bulls raise prices arbitrarily to obtain huge profits.These are all short-term operators should pay attention to.

Once your judgment is correct, short-term operators can make huge profits.There is no shortage of precedents in history.In the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the 1920s and 1930s, some people rushed to buy a certain type of stock, and then sold the stock on the same day. Just like this, they could earn 3-5 silver dollars. A few days of expenses for a family of several. Now, something similar is happening around us. In late November 1991, the Jintian shares in the Shenzhen stock market fluctuated around 10 yuan.Some investors bought hundreds or even thousands of shares through correct research and judgment, and then sold the stocks on the same day, earning thousands of yuan in an instant, which is the salary income of an ordinary worker for a year. However, when investors are reaping benefits, they should not forget the purpose of the strategy of "distance and near attack".In military terms, "distance diplomatic relations" is not a permanent reconciliation, but a diplomatic deception used to avoid making too many enemies, which is to isolate close neighbors.Once the "close attack" is successful, the "far friendship" will become a new target of attack.Similarly, for investors, short-term trading is just a means to accumulate experience and enhance strength step by step. The purpose is to challenge the long-term trading of the original "distance trading" object when the conditions are ripe.If you are greedy for short-term interests, blindly obsessed with short-term trading and ignore longer-term goals, then you are really short-sighted.