Chapter 10 ○9. Seek truth from facts and oppose exaggerated indicators

For more than a hundred years, the ancient Chinese nation has suffered from the multiple oppression, exploitation and ravages of imperialist powers, feudalism and bureaucratic capitalism. It is really poor enough, suffering enough, and fed up.When she finally stood up under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, established the People's Republic, and successfully built her own homeland, a huge energy was released.The transformation of production relations has promoted the development of productivity. In just 8 years, on the devastated land, it has created great achievements that have shocked the world: during the first five-year plan period, the total output value of industry and agriculture increased by an average of 13.5 per year. %, the average annual increase of industrial output value is 18%, and the average annual increase of agricultural output value is 4.8%. In 1949, only 190,000 tons of steel could be produced. In 1957, the annual output reached 5.35 million tons, an increase of 28 times in 8 years!This year's grain production reached 195.05 million tons, barely feeding the 600 million people who are accustomed to hunger.These miracles, which have never been seen in any country in the world, appear in the most populous, almost backward and poorest country in the East. How can this nation not be proud, inspired, and excited!

Not only that, in the backward agricultural country, the light of hope of industrial civilization has begun to appear.Looking back on the past, the century of humiliation that has just ended but still has scars still lingers has inspired the passionate pursuit of the Chinese nation to strive for victory.From the sharp contrast between the old and new societies, people convincingly admit that the Communist Party and Chairman Mao are the great saviors, and only socialism can save China.As long as the leader's instructions are followed, New China will immediately leap to prosperity.Excited by the brilliant achievements that have been made and the pursuit of higher ideals that have been stimulated, the people are even more motivated, determined to create more magnificent and magnificent achievements immediately.

And the Chinese Communist Party, the party that has grown from small to large, defeated the strong with the weak, defeated all enemies with bare hands, and seized power. This party has successfully led the people to create economic miracles without leading economic construction. Excited about success.Immediately afterwards, it is naturally the determination to make persistent efforts and create greater miracles for mankind. As a result, the eagerness to try became a great drive to change the world, and a wave of Great Leap Forward, unprecedented in human history, soon swept across the land of China.

At the beginning of 1958, it was in such an atmosphere that Jia Tuofu was transferred to the executive deputy director of the State Planning Commission and deputy secretary of the party group.From the time he assisted Vice Premier Li Fuchun in presiding over the daily work of the Planning Commission, to the end of September 1959 when he was branded a "Right opportunist." In less than two years, he was placed in the most sensitive position during the Great Leap Forward. A special struggle and test.It can be said that this is the most important and representative period for Jatov.How did he spend it?Is it a loser?Facts and time will tell.

In November 1957, Chairman Mao Zedong proposed a goal that shocked the world at the meeting of the Communist and Workers' Parties in Moscow: China will catch up with Britain in steel and other major products within 15 years.In the same month of the same year, the "People's Daily" published an editorial titled "Mobilize All People to Discuss the 40-point Outline and Set off a Climax of Agricultural Production" (the 40-point refers to the "Agricultural Development Outline"), and put forward the slogan of "leap forward" for the first time. In January 1958, at the Nanning Conference, Mao Zedong fiercely criticized the anti-rash advance in 1956: "Don't mention the term 'anti-rash advance', okay? This is a political issue. If you oppose it, you will be discouraged. 600 million people will be discouraged. I'm so angry!"

"There have been twists and turns in the past three years. When the rightists attacked, some of our comrades were thrown only 50 meters away from the rightists. The rightists came up with a comprehensive "anti-adventurous advance", saying that "the present is not as good as it used to be", "adventurous advances have greater losses than conservatives" ’. Let’s do some research, which one is the big one? The 600 million people who opposed “adventurous advancement” were discouraged. In June 1956, an editorial against “adventurous advancement” called for anti-rightist conservatism and anti-impatience and aggressiveness. , unreasonable carrying pole three, the actual point is anti-adventurous. It is not a finger that is sick. This editorial, I criticized the word "don't read", scolding me, why should I read it?..."

Chairman Mao Zedong raised anti-adventure to the level of a political issue, not only believed that anti-adventure vented the anger of 600 million people and led to the attack of the bourgeois right, but also linked the anti-adventure with the attack of the right, and even mentioned the issue of opposing himself .At the meeting, Zhou Enlai, Chen Yun and others were severely criticized, and Liu Shaoqi was also criticized for instructing the Central Propaganda Department to draft the editorial.Jatov is naturally also in the ranks of critics. At the meeting, all localities were asked to fight hard for three years to basically change the appearance of most of them, and to achieve the 20-year goal stipulated in the agricultural development program within 5-8 years (this program has just been passed not long ago, and it is setting off a climax of discussion and implementation); -In 10 years, the local industrial output value of each province and autonomous region will exceed the agricultural output value (realize national industrialization).The horn of an unprecedented Great Leap Forward has officially sounded.

People over the age of 50 can still clearly remember what a vigorous era it was!What kind of fanaticism and distortion have appeared again.All over the country, east, west, north, south, and all walks of life, under the leadership of the general line of "go all out, strive for the top, and build socialism with more, faster, better and more economical resources" proposed by Chairman Mao Zedong and passed by the second meeting of the Eighth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, socialism has been carried out in society. Under the impetus of the anti-rightist struggle and inner-party criticism and anti-rash advancement, the upsurge of Leap Forward, Great Leap Forward, and Extra-Great Leap Forward has been rising wave after wave.Not long after the rural cooperatives were transformed, the transformation of a higher level of production relations—the people's commune movement—flocked to the whole country.One university and two public institutions, integration of government and society, workers, peasants and soldiers studying business—China seems to have found a specific form of transition to communism.The heat wave agitated by the three red flags of the General Line, the Great Leap Forward, and the People's Commune burned the minds of most leaders and the masses.People seem to think that as long as they work harder and harder, they will catch up with Britain, and their poor and white hats will be thrown into the Pacific Ocean at once.It is the ideal kind of communist society in which productivity is greatly improved, materials are greatly abundant, and the three major differences (referring to the differences between workers and peasants, between urban and rural areas, and between mental labor and physical labor) are eliminated, and distribution can be made according to needs. , will also be realized in the hands of this generation. Slogans such as "Realize Communism within five years" or even "Realize Communism within three years" can be seen everywhere in factories, villages, government offices, schools, and streets.Some old communists are also extremely excited to think that they will live to see the coming of communism....

In this hot air, no economic basis, no scientific analysis, no objective law, all of them are nothing to worry about. "Nothing is impossible, only unexpected", and the slogan "How bold people are, how productive the land" was put forward; the yield of wheat per mu was 2,000 catties, 7 thousand catties, and 130,000 catties, all the way to rice yielding 300,000 catties per mu, sweet potato per mu The "satellite" with a production capacity of 1 million catties was soon released; a sorbet weighed more than 20 catties, a green onion cost 3 catties and 6 taels, a broad bean cost more than 7 taels, a sow gave birth to more than 200 piglets, and a chicken Eight large eggs were laid in two hours... "miracles" emerged one after another.People are already worried: so much food, what should I do if I can't eat it?

The problem is not the fanaticism of the masses. People's desire to quickly change their backwardness is sincere and they work hard for it from the heart. The problem is the guidelines and policies that guide them.During the period of the Great Leap Forward, the party’s guiding ideology for economic work made mistakes, violated objective laws, and set up high targets of subjectivism, followed by a wind of blind command, exaggeration, and “communism.” Originally, the first five-year plan had indeed created miraculous achievements. In 1957, after adjustments, the proportions of various departments were relatively coordinated, and it became one of the years with the best economic construction results since the founding of the People's Republic of China. The output of steel was 5.35 million tons, and the output of grain reached more than 370 billion catties.This fully proves that China is likely to develop faster than other countries, including developed capitalist countries, and should develop faster, and it also lays the foundation for faster development in the future.The problem is that the ships of New China, after all, sail in the vast ocean of small production. Under the conditions of a poor and backward agricultural economy, what is faster?What is the foundation of fast?How to develop faster?What is the law of fast?How fast is possible, reliable and secure?It is a pity that these issues have not been taken seriously by top decision makers.

Stimulated by the Great Leap Forward in agricultural production, Chairman Mao Zedong stood on the front line again, pushing the Great Leap Forward in industrial production to a new climax.It turns out that the State Economic Commission’s proposal to the State Council set the 1958 steel output targets at 6.24 million tons, pig iron at 7.32 million tons, and steel products at 4.82 million tons, an increase of 19.2%, 24.9% and 13.1% over 1957, respectively.Even by the standards of the time, this was already a great leap forward.However, Mao Zedong was moved by the soaring enthusiasm of the people in various places and industries and their fanatical support for the party and the leader. He thought that agriculture can create miracles, why can't industry create a miracle by engaging in mass movements? In August 1958, at the enlarged meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held in Beidaihe, people believed that the situation was coming.Chairman Mao asked the person in charge of the Ministry of Metallurgy at that time: "The situation is going to develop, how much steel can be produced? How about doubling it?" The answer: "Yes, it can be considered." Chairman Mao considered promoting the Great Leap Forward of industry, considering that steel is As a sign of a country's industrial level, the original plan did not work. At the meeting, steel production was brought up in front of everyone as the top priority of the party.He said: "... Steel has doubled from 5.3 million tons in 1957 to 11 million tons. There is a danger that it will not be completed. The central problem is to make iron. Now we have called and started, but we have to hurry up. Call back, promise." At the Beidaihe meeting, it was formally decided that steel production in 1958 would double that of 1957, reaching 10.7 million tons, and a meeting of secretaries of each province was held to assign tasks and make a public announcement.As far as the basic capabilities such as mining, smelting, and transportation actually existed at that time, this indicator was actually unattainable.However, Mao Zedong made such a big determination, and launched a mobilization again, asking the party committees of all provinces and autonomous regions to shift their attention and focus from agriculture to industry, and the whole party took action to develop iron and steel.In that atmosphere, different voices are hard to tell.Besides, no one has experience, miracles might happen?The anti-"anti-rash advance" impression is so deep, who wants to be a rightist? After the Beidaihe meeting, the "Steel Marshal" was officially promoted.Tens of millions of people were mobilized all over the country at once, fighting hard day and night, and engaged in small (small blast furnaces), local (indigenous steelmaking and iron making), and mass (mass big steelmaking).I am afraid that it is also unique in the world. The "National Great Steelmaking Movement" was launched vigorously, and the Great Leap Forward Movement also reached its peak. During this period, Jatov has always maintained a calm head.He did not copy others, did not follow the crowd, did not simply believe blindly or disagree.He needs to actually investigate, he needs to think clearly, he needs to figure out and answer what?Why?What doesn't work?And why not?For more than a year, he still did a lot of investigations and thought about many problems in his intense work.During the more than 500 days from March 1958 to the Lushan Conference in August 1959, he was hospitalized for only 16 days and took two rests due to illness. He was busy with the daily work of the Planning Committee for more than 300 days, and he presided over and participated in more than 120 plans. The committee's party group meeting, report meeting, and central financial and economic group meeting assisted Li Fuchun in organizing two national planning work conferences.In addition, it took more than 180 days to go out for inspections and investigations, as well as to participate in the meetings of the central government in Beidaihe, Beijing, Shanghai, and Lushan, and went to Lanzhou twice to participate in the meetings of the Northwest Cooperation Area Committee.He has been to Shaanxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Hubei, Hebei, Tianjin, Shanghai and other places successively, traveling no less than ten thousand miles. With the increasing momentum of industrial and agricultural leap forward, the planning work faced more contradictions and exposed problems.The more he saw the actual situation in various places, the more doubts in his heart became stronger.He is serious.He feels that the enthusiasm of the masses is really precious. Once the positive factors of people are mobilized, what a great material force will be produced!This positivity should be seen and protected.In Taonan, Gansu, he was deeply moved when he saw the people's great enthusiasm for water conservancy, fighting at night with lamps and lanterns, and diverting water up the mountain. He even wrote impromptu poems to praise them.But he couldn't ignore some anomalies. Seeing the deep plowing of the land in the suburbs of Xi'an to achieve high yields, and digging the ground more than a foot deep, he wondered if the soil could be turned up to the ground to grow crops?I think this is a waste of money. I saw that in some places, more than ten mu of rice was transplanted on one mu of "experimental field", ventilated with ventilators, and illuminated with searchlights, saying that it was a "satellite" for high yield.He said that this kind of practice is definitely not good, it is almost nonsense. I have seen that in some places, steel is made by indigenous methods, and the things produced are like iron but not iron, and steel is not steel, and they cannot be used at all.He said: "I really hate iron but not steel!" Seeing small mines being opened up randomly in some places, which cannot be managed, he feels that such destruction of national resources is not worth the gain, and he needs to be restrained. Seeing that Shifa coking requires a lot of coal input, and the coke produced is less, and the quality is low. Using it to make iron can not increase the temperature, and the cost is high.He thought it was a waste. Some mine workers reported that they did not have soap to take a bath, and people "can't get on the Kang".He believed that it should be taken seriously, saying: "If this continues, the motivation of the workers will be difficult to maintain, and production will eventually fail." Seeing the slogans published in "People's Daily": "How bold people are, how productive the land is", "Don't be afraid of not being able to do it, just be afraid of not being able to think of it", he felt very uncomfortable, saying: "As the organ of the Party Central Committee, how can we Propaganda like this? Revolutionary romanticism is okay, but it must not be too far removed from reality, let alone guide actions. Otherwise, won’t it encourage the lower level to be even more exaggerated?” ... The more specific issues he was exposed to, the more contradictory and heavy he felt.Seeing that the Great Leap Forward aroused the high enthusiasm and enthusiasm of the masses, it is really overwhelming, and it is an extremely valuable social driving force.He can't but admit sincerely that this has never happened at any time in history and under any system.It can indeed create miracles. Didn't it create many in the first five years?Isn't the current momentum and scene unprecedented?But how does a socialist economy work?Socialism has the principle of proportionality in planning. How can it be reflected in the practice of planning work?It didn't solve it.The enthusiasm of the masses has risen, but is there still a problem of correct guidance for economic construction in the form of mass movements?Of course, at the Nanning Conference, Chairman Mao’s laughing and cursing criticism of “anti-rash advance” was still in my ears, and I was also listed in the ranks of “rightists” or “only fifty steps away from the rightists”. Not introspective.Moreover, none of them have engaged in a large socialist economy, let alone a mass movement-style Great Leap Forward, so it is difficult to make correct judgments and conclusions in a short period of time.However, new situations and new problems that arise in real life are real and should be resolved. Otherwise, what kind of situation will arise? During this period, Jatov paid great attention to thinking and tried to solve the relationship between ideological understanding and practical problems.He did not simply and openly talk about specific issues, he did not discuss business technology as it stands, but he wanted to answer these questions correctly through hard work, so that he could have a more correct understanding of the objective situation and the party's line and policy, and at the same time be able to There is a proper direction for economic planning work, so as to avoid the gradual expansion of actual problems.In fact, as early as the end of the Nanning Conference in early 1958, shortly after Chairman Mao criticized anti-adventurous progress and pointed out that some people were "only 50 meters away from the rightists", Jatov began to think about the issue of "how much faster, better and more economical" .One day, he went directly to the office of Secretary Zhao Jialiang right after work, and said, "Think about it, and help me write an article about how fast, easy and economical, and I plan to publish it in a newspaper. I have thought about this issue, and I have some opinions. Can stand." He said: In 1953, when he participated in the drafting of a speech on capital construction by the Planning Commission, he mentioned "good, fast, and economical".At that time, Zhang Xi, who had just been transferred to the Planning Commission from the post of Secretary of the Henan Provincial Party Committee, added "and safe". In 1955, Chairman Mao proposed that it should be faster, better, and more, and Li Fuchun added "to save". In 1956, the "People's Daily" New Year's Day editorial officially put forward the order of "more, faster, better, and less".He pointed out: "At the Hangzhou Conference and the Nanning Conference, many comrades repeatedly proposed to build socialism more, faster, better, and more economically. Cutting, you can’t just talk about how fast you are, and don’t talk about how fast you are. How fast you are should be based on good savings. If you don’t have good savings, how fast is false. Whether the four words are fast or good is the center, and it may be different in different regions. , different units, different times, different things, have different emphases. But judging from the practical experience of the past few years, I am afraid that the focus should be on the good, not on the fast. Of course, only the good and the cheap, not the How fast is also wrong. Saving money can’t replace how fast, there is no certain quantity and quality.” Zhao Jialiang said sincerely: “I think your point of view is tenable, but at this moment, this article is not good. If you write it, it’s not easy to publish it, and if you don’t make a big problem, it will give people the impression that you are singing against Chairman Mao.” Jia Tuofu said: “Don’t worry, think about it, and then carefully consider how to write it when you have a little time. .” In March 1958, it was put forward at the Chengdu Conference, and later officially adopted at the second meeting of the Eighth National Congress in May, the general line of "go all out, strive for the top, and build socialism more quickly, better and more economically".Jatov agrees, saying: This reflects the urgent desire of the broad masses of the people to change the appearance of backwardness.However, he is also worried that in the upcoming economic situation, one-sided emphasis will be placed on speed, while cost saving will be neglected, which will be very harmful to work and construction.His strong sense of responsibility and party spirit drove him to speak out without fear of taking political risks.He once again suggested drafting an article to comprehensively discuss the dialectical relationship between more, faster, better and more economical. Zhao Jialiang still advised him not to write it, but Jia Tuofu did not give up his idea.From his several speeches at the rectification retreat of the Planning Commission Party Group after the Chengdu Conference, one can clearly feel his state of mind at that time. He said: "The issue raised by the Chengdu Conference is the issue of the construction line, which was blind and unconscious in the past. Collectively, one is the issue of speed, and the other is the issue of the masses. The issue of speed is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue. If it’s faster, there will be a mass problem, which was not clear in the past.” "I have paid attention to agricultural issues in my mind. If agriculture does not improve, it will affect industry, especially light industry, market arrangements, finance, foreign exchange, etc., and there is an important relationship between them. But it will affect the speed of agriculture. How fast, I have not fully figured out. I estimated the second five years of agriculture from the actual situation of the first five years. I always felt that the first two years of the second five years would not be easy to increase. It is still underestimated that agriculture can make a great leap forward.” "Central and local. My past thinking was that most of the heavy industry is carried out by the central government, and most of the light industry is carried out locally. For decentralized enterprises, the small ones are first released, and then they are enlarged. We will wait and see. However, the division of labor between the central government and local governments cannot be developed at a high speed. I don’t understand clearly the nature of the division. The main reason is that heavy industry has high technology, a lot of funds, and is difficult to manage. It needs to be properly concentrated, which is a bit mystified.” "Large, medium and small problems. I think it's better for heavy industry to be bigger. I'm afraid it won't work for small ones. There will be problems in technology, quality, and cost. Most light industries are small and medium-sized, but not in terms of speed, but in terms of raw material supply and product sales. In the recent period, I feel that the middle and small schools are a problem of route and speed." "Construction and life. Labor wages. I have been in charge of the Central Finance Committee for a period of time. I think the problem is not simple. I suspect that there is a problem if there are too many. Labor wages always feel that it is easy to do it. It is difficult to get it down. The construction scale is large and the production Growth is fast, there are more people, and there are more life problems.” "I feel that the population problem is a big problem, affecting all aspects. To control the population, to be interested in birth control is only to see one side of the problem." "The production potential is underestimated. In the past, the equipment technology was mainly considered, but the human factor was underestimated." "Basic construction. In 1956, the battle line was long, and it was very tense. Later, I calculated the balance of finance, materials, and foreign exchange, and the balance between market commodities and purchasing power. I felt that there was a problem and needed rest (adjustment). In 1957, it was cut After a while, although it was necessary, it was like some comrades said, "cut bloody". I said to some comrades at the time: it was a bit "perverse". Since then, I have reversed my thinking and thought that it should be more stable and stable. To be able to avoid bloody and perverse actions is only based on the basis of progress and no retreat. This point has been seen too much, and the situation is underestimated.” "When the plan was formulated in 1957, my central idea was to achieve balance. I didn't have the courage to put forward the indicators proposed by the various ministries, and the relationship with the various ministries was also tense." "My style of work is transactional, and my method of thinking is empiricism. I am busy every day, busy with minor details, busy with more and less issues, without thinking about ideological and theoretical issues, let alone political line issues. I feel that the local and The indicators proposed by various ministries have their limitations, and the Planning Commission is for comprehensive balance, and only when it is balanced can we really know whether it is more or less, so we are busy with the balance of more and less every day with peace of mind." "Top ten relationships, each relationship is related to speed. In the past, I didn't see enough positive factors in these relationships, and I saw too many negative factors. I had some contradictions in my mind, and I had some considerations. Fragmentary.... Now that I have grasped the politics and the mass line, I have outlined the key points and resolved all the details. I think my essential problem is my perception of speed. It's one-sided." It can be seen that Jatov is trying his best to follow the spirit of the general line and use self-criticism to improve his own understanding.However, he could not escape thinking about those practical contradictions.For example, at the same rectification retreat, he also talked about: "It's not bad to guarantee the focus itself, but it won't work if there is no guarantee, and there is no outline. But if it is too excessive, it will be problematic if it is too prominent." "When the plan was started in 1953, it was right to emphasize learning from the Soviet Union and opposing the British and American ones. However, not all of the British and American ones were wrong, and some of them were right (note: it was bold enough to ask questions like this at the time) According to China’s actual situation, we proposed the simultaneous development of industry and agriculture, the simultaneous development of large, medium and small enterprises, and the simultaneous development of the central and local governments, etc., which are different from the Soviet Union, but the Soviet Union also has good things. ... The ten major relations are essentially opposed to dogmatism.” "In the past, planning was formulated from top to bottom, and there was mystification. Now the planning work follows the mass line, and it also needs a comprehensive balance." "For a problem, doubt is necessary before you know it. Doubt is thinking, just thinking about it." "It's good to have debates, and this kind of atmosphere is good. Debates need to be discussed, technical and sometimes political. Political and business perspectives should be combined." "Dogmatism does not lie in whether there are more or less tables and indicators, but whether it is suitable for the national conditions. If it is unrealistic, it is wrong; if it is realistic, even if it is copied, it is right." "All problems are decided by us, how to solve them in practice." Jia Tuofu also proposed at the enlarged meeting of the Party Group of the Planning Committee: "Under the current situation, what should we do with the planning work? How is the general line reflected in our planning work? Can we have a 'general line' of planning work? This 'general line' Should the following 12 points be included: "1. It must be based on the Party's general line; "2. Taking industrial and agricultural production and construction as the main content, while at the same time taking into account the cooperation of all aspects of the national economy; "3. Political economy and technology are closely integrated and politics is in command; "4. The mass line work method that focuses on bottom-up, and combines bottom-up and top-down; "5. A positive, mutually reinforcing balance; "6. Combination of long-term and short-term; "7. Combination of sections and blocks, a dual-track system based on blocks; "8. Two accounts that are full of energy and leave room; "9. Hierarchical management, level-by-level balance; "10. Grasp the two ends, take the middle, average advanced quota; "11. Check the plan, catch four times a year; "12. Must rely on the direct leadership of the party committee." From the above questions and opinions, it can be clearly felt that under the conditions at the time, Jatov still tried his best to seek relative coordination and balance in the spirit of the general line and from the overall consideration of the national economy. To avoid possible one-sidedness in a harmonious atmosphere, combined with a scientific attitude; while respecting the masses and mass movements, they also respect and explore regular factors; while breaking routine, breaking superstition, and emancipating the mind, they also seek planning certain norms to be followed.On the one hand, we must keep up with the development of the situation, and on the other hand, we hope that there will be no tendency that is difficult to grasp.While engaged in the comprehensive balance of national economic planning work, he also tried to find a balance in terms of ideas and specific methods.Today, anyone who experienced the Great Leap Forward in 1958 can easily understand Jatov's hard work at that time. The upsurge of the Great Leap Forward is unstoppable, the drum is getting higher and higher, more and more people are getting more and more hot-headed, and the political atmosphere is getting stronger and stronger. "hat of.So the indicators are getting higher and higher, the exaggeration is getting heavier, and the emotions are getting more and more passionate.Standing on the State Planning Commission, which controls the overall situation of the national economy, it requires coordination and comprehensive balance, and tries its best to ensure that this huge economic machine runs at a high speed without collapsing, just like a speeding train trying to keep it from derailing. It is extremely difficult to continue breaking the waves and drumming the sails when a ship encounters a storm.Jatuofu, who is in charge of the executive work of the Planning Commission, is in such a torrent, at the intersection of contradictions.He is the leader, and he is doing the real work.He wants to see the direction clearly and keep up with the trend, but he has to face and deal with practical problems.Encountering all kinds of contradictions and problems colliding, life is really sad.In the past 30 years of participating in revolutionary work, it seems that I have never encountered such a complicated situation. Now, more than ever before, I am in a position where I am in touch with the overall situation and my work has a more comprehensive impact. grasp.And this kind of adaptation and grasp is not to follow the trend.Anyway, things always have different aspects, cognition always has its opposite, and practical problems always have to be solved. Therefore, he still tried his best to keep calm and maintain independent thinking and opinions.As he worked on the research project, he repeatedly and repeatedly mentioned: "The State Planning Commission needs to be warm-hearted, but cold-headed." "The economic situation is a great leap forward. Now it is a digital leap forward, and the measures have not kept up. The political atmosphere of the 17 ministries is enough, but the specific measures are not enough. The Planning Commission must coordinate with the ministries to focus on research measures." "During this period, we must consider the negative and difficult aspects." "Resources, technical strength, funds, equipment, and materials are all relatively tight, and we must deeply explore and study carefully." "In order to set the targets for 1959 and the second five-year plan, it is necessary to install and complete two accounts, whichever is lower, and strive to exceed the quota ahead of schedule, so be proactive." "After the industrial and agricultural indicators are initially determined, research on major issues should be carried out around these figures: what are the weak links of major projects, the distribution of industrial areas, geological resources, the supporting capacity of electromechanical equipment, finance, foreign exchange, materials, Material balance, labor force, accumulation, consumption, etc. must be arranged in detail.” "When arranging the indicators of the second five-year plan, we must consider key and general issues, partial and overall issues. From the perspective of steel alone, we can get 60 million tons, but there are problems in the overall view. 40-50% of the resources are still available. Need to find; investment is not implemented; technical strength and labor force need to be planned; the biggest problem is equipment, one is electricity, and the other is heavy (equipment), the contradiction is very prominent. Electricity needs to go up, but copper and aluminum are insufficient. Raw materials and equipment need Touch it well. After the department has been set, we need to consider local issues to see how the local balance is? You can see the problem from all directions.” "Arrangements for the second five-year period, especially the 1959 plan indicators, should be considered. What is the problem with the balance? The expected completion of production in 1958 should be well understood. What is the possibility? How much can the production capacity be achieved? According to 1958 In terms of the amount that can be completed in one year, there is still a large gap between the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, power generation, equipment, machine tools, acid, alkali, coke, rubber, etc., so that the infrastructure construction in 1959 required more new capacity. There are also contradictions in investment. To maintain the output in 1959, some capacity must be arranged in the second half of this year, which not only involves investment, but also raw materials and technical problems to be solved. Even if the steel products meet the quantity next year, the specifications and varieties will still be It cannot meet the needs.... These need to be studied and solved in terms of measures.” He also repeatedly mentioned the support of mining, coal, power generation installed capacity, acid, alkali and other chemical industries; the production of wood and cement and labor arrangements; the tension in transportation, regional balance and coordination, infrastructure production, life problems, and time measures. ; Specific problems and opinions on the supporting machinery industry, etc., and repeatedly explained when reporting to the Central Financial and Economic Group. Chen Yun and other leaders attach great importance to Jia Tuofu's opinions, and have made it clear that the key to the success of next year's plan lies in the issue of materials.Copper, aluminum, and steel varieties, can the time catch up?If the copper is empty, the generator set will be empty, and all four will be empty, which is a big problem. He also said: Judging from the actual situation, it reflects that the mission in 1959 was not easy.There are serious problems with materials, equipment, and transportation, as well as construction capacity.Railways and transportation are big problems. If they can't be solved, it will be difficult to manage, and the plan will fall through. It seems that there are many holes in the plan for the coming year! These actual conditions indicate that the leap forward in 1958 may bring about overall tension in the economy.However, these specific issues are only discussed among some leaders of economic work, and cannot reach or affect the highest decision-making level.Not only that, but the problem is exacerbating development. At the Beidaihe Conference in August 1958, Chairman Mao Zedong proposed that steel production should be doubled to 700,000 tons.Jia Tuofu thought there was a problem. After careful accounting with Song Shaowen and Liao Jili, he agreed that from January to August 1958, driven by Yuejin, only 5 million tons were produced (almost equivalent to the production volume of the whole year of 1957). It is actually impossible to produce another 6 million tons in the next four months.Moreover, the implementation of this indicator will have a great impact on other industries and the overall economy.However, many people would not listen to their opinions, so naturally they could not be sent to Chairman Mao for consideration as an opinion. In this situation, Jatov has no ability to reverse the situation, he can only keep reminding him as much as he can. At that time, many people spoke on the basis of high indicators, and the phenomenon of false reports was serious. As for whether it was true or not, there were few serious studies.There are also some people who feel that they should seek truth from facts and hope that there will be fewer deviations.Once, several comrades including Zhao Jialiang from the Planning Commission Secretariat wrote a big-character poster in the Planning Commission with the title "Promoting Telling the Truth."Jia Tuofu came to work early, and immediately said, "Very good!" He immediately signed his name.After him, several deputy directors of the Planning Commission also signed.As a result, Zhao Jialiang's big-character poster became Jia Tuofu's big-character poster, which caused great repercussions in the government for a while. In mid-October 1958, Jia Tuofu and Li Fuchun held a national planning meeting in Beijing, and he was still raising questions.He said: "The current situation in the Great Leap Forward is very good, and there are many good experiences. We can talk about good things. This is the main and basic thing. At the same time, we should also talk about some problems." "This meeting will be a combination of fiction and reality. I am afraid that the reality will be the main focus, and the virtual will also be discussed." "Steel is the key link, but there are problems in mines and steel rolling. It seems that we should focus on steel products in the first quarter. For the whole year, there are big problems in mines." "It depends on the evolution of the situation next year. For example, whether to engage in steelmaking with more than 50 million people? It needs to be re-studied. Industry and agriculture are leaping forward at the same time. How much labor is given to agriculture and how much to industry must be arranged in a unified way." "In addition to steel and steel products, there are other things to cooperate, such as coal, electricity, machinery, railway transportation, labor force, etc. It is natural that other aspects proposed by various places should follow suit. The focus cannot be separated from the general, regardless of No, that’s the problem with the large package. You can’t just focus on the main machine and ignore the auxiliary machine.” "The mass line solves problems, not everything can be solved, and there will be contradictions in the Great Leap Forward." "See the good side, which is the dominant side, but also see new problems." “这次会议能把问题提出来，也是好的，在此基础上，先把第一季度计划安排下来。因此，这次会议第一暴露矛盾，第二重点安排，第三解决调入调出，第四先定第一季度。至于明年全年计划，要看今年第四季度完成的如何，然后再订。定案还要由中央解决。” “土和洋，大和中小相结合，但一定要有个比例，没有比例是不行的。” “分散与集中，分散以调动地方积极性，可以争取时间搞快些。但只有分散，没有集中，就会乱套，就没有全局，就不能保证重点。看来还得很好结合，不能偏废。” “包干与统筹。地方包干是在全国统筹计划下的包干，而全国统筹则又是在地方包干基础上统筹。不能只强调一面，还是要结合好。” 他的这些意见均在会议期间向中央财经小组作了汇报，具体地反映了暴露出的各种矛盾。他认为，“暴露矛盾，使各部对下面的情况和问题了解得更清楚一些，也使各地对总的情况了解得更多一些，是有好处的。但是这次会议要解决问题很困难，建议明确一下总的目标，重点解决钢要成材，机要配套的问题，先把1959年一季度计划安排下来，全年计划到时与各部各省再研究后，报中央会议来确定。” 计划会议上，根据8月北戴河会议的精神，各地报的计划汇总，结果是1959年钢产量指标到了3900万吨（当时正在努力争取1958年钢生产达到1070万吨。就是说，1959年又要在此基础上再翻两番）。这可是实实在在地搞生产，不是吹气，凭什么条件去实现？怎么有可能达到呢？贾拓夫已是忧心忡忡，难以安眠了。但是，当时毛泽东主席表了态：“3000万吨可以了。”提出的口号是“为3000万吨钢而奋斗！”在财经小组会议上，其他几位主管经济的副总理对此都没有表态（看来也确实不好表态），责成贾拓夫负责先起草文件，准备带到11月召开的武昌会议上去用。 贾拓夫承接任务后，心情格外沉重，他陷入了痛苦的沉思之中。当时秘书问他：“3000万吨明明不行，为什么不提出来呢？” 贾拓夫说：“不能提。” 秘书又问：“文件是由你起草，你首当其冲，你不提谁提？” 答：“现在已不好讲了，毛主席已经讲话，他们（指当时几位副总理）也都还没讲，等开完会再说吧！” 问：“到时候要打屁股，先打的是你，怎么办？” 答：“不算数（指指标），还会变的。” 那时候，要讲些心里话，讲些负责任的实话，也真是难啊！ 1958年11月，武昌会议召开了。经过会议研究、核算，作为“元帅”的钢产量指标，一点点地往下降，从3000万吨—2900万吨—2700万吨……。这次会议上，毛主席提出了冷热结合，冲天干劲和科学态度相结合的问题，并且指出计划指标要有根据，根据要落实。指标要落实可靠，比例关系要调整。针对1959年钢产量指标，毛主席讲到可去掉三分之一，最后定为2000万吨。当时意见是对内按2000万吨安排，对外宣布1800万吨。陈云本不同意这样定，但还是公布了2000万吨。虽然这个指标仍然是要在1958年基础上再翻一番，但当时已是不能再退下来的气氛了。责成计委再拟定具体计划，由副主任安志文、综合局长廖季立等人负责。贾拓夫对于这个2000万吨，仍然心里很不踏实，觉得很玄乎。 2000万吨看来也完不成，而指标又不能再动，怎么办？贾拓夫回到北京后，就在计委内部布置，让廖季立等人另外测算，安排两个更低一些的计划方案：一个1800万吨，一个1600万吨或者更低一些，以备原计划执行过程中的确发生困难时，好拿出来应急调整，而不至于突然间陷入更加被动的境地。本来这是从工作出发，从实际出发的一种负责任的做法，遗憾的是，他后来却为此而遭到严厉的批判，说这是和党中央的决定唱对台戏，是对抗中央的行为。然而，实际的情况正如贾拓夫预计的那样，并没有因为武昌会议定了，公布了，就一定能实现。当时中国的经济底子毕竟就是那么个基础，而经济运行又毕竟有它自有的规律。 由于钢铁“元帅”指标的一再变动，1959年计划一直很难安排，而贾拓夫始终担心高指标会造成国民经济比例关系的严重失调，带来更加全面紧张的形势。他认为，1959年计划必须建立在1958年的实际生产水平的基础上，要尽量稳妥可靠，避免大上后而不得不大下、大起而又被迫大落的局面出现。因此，他想把1958年的实际能力和水平摸得更清楚一些。 他很怀疑1958年大炼钢铁到底有没有1070万吨，就让廖季立等去统计局核实到底有多少钢？多少好钢？多少土钢？经过反复核算，虽然完成了1070万吨的指标，但真正能用的好钢却只有800万吨，其余200万吨是基本不能用、无法成材的土钢。 他也认为粮食产量有很大虚假成分。1958年原来估计粮食生产达10500亿斤（1957年只有3700亿斤），后来说有7500亿斤，贾拓夫对此仍有怀疑，找有关同志去农口了解核实。他觉得1958年粮食大跃进，大丰收是事实，但比上一年增产那么多，不合乎道理。1959年1月，中央财经小组在周总理处开会，他在汇报1959年计划安排时讲：“武昌会议时定下1958年粮食产量是7500亿斤，棉花6700万担，这与1959年计划关系甚大。如果是这个数，没有虚假，是一个情况；如果有变化，但幅度不大，也不要紧，影响不大。1958年粮食、棉花究竟有多少？直接关系计划的安排。”当时农口的负责人满脸怒气，拍案而起，拍着桌子说：“没有问题，农业指标不要再议了，就是七千零一亿斤。这是在主席那里定的。你这是什么意思？！”贾拓夫只好说：“没有问题就好。”实际上后来再核实，1958年粮食产量还不到5000亿斤。 贾拓夫还对1958年财政收入的实际数字感到不踏实。他在周总理处的会议上提出：“1958年财政收入有450亿元，是不是有虚假成分？”当时财贸口负责人李先念说：“估计至少有20亿元的虚假数。” 贾拓夫感到，计划工作要做好，必须建立在可靠的统计数字基础上。他请来国家统计局的领导贾启允、陶立、王思华等人，重点谈了统计工作方法和与计划工作的关系。他说：“统计工作最近破教条主义，立群众路线，解放思想，有很大跃进，有许多好的经验，要继续搞好，不能放松。然而工作方法方面也面临很多新的问题。人民公社、两条腿走路、综合利用工厂、亦工亦农等等，使得现在与过去的统计基础相比，发生了很多变化。统计工作也需要适应新的情况，向综合性方向发展。”当前，统计工作要和整个经济工作一致起来，这个时期抓什么？对小土群、大洋群的运动如何抓（统计）？设备的重点应如何安排？铁要成钢，钢要成材，进展和问题是什么？这些都要注意。这些我们（指计委）可以抓，统计部门也可以抓。“他认为：'统计工作也是计划工作的一部分。'”“设想这么一个方案，即统计与计划工作口径对起来，计划工作要充分利用统计局的力量，又分工又汇合，必要时可以交叉，互相支援，互相依靠，工作也可以交流，可以联系起来参加或合署办公。计委党组开会，你们三人总要有一人参加，联合起来。此事党组讨论定后报中央批，现在先搞起来，试一下。” 在进一步摸清1958年实际情况的同时，贾拓夫在计委党组强调，安排1959年特别是第一季度计划时，按武昌会议定的指标，要力争搞得有根据。每个项目都要有个“由头”；要强调保重点和照顾一般相结合，特别要抓住项目和材料供应两个环节；配套问题要负责解决或提出解决的意见；劳动工资要考虑，增加人员要控制；必需品供应的全面紧张一定要重视，不抓这件事会犯错误，只抓生产，不抓生活是不行的，必要时要给供应让路，以保证生活不出大问题。安排时要经常保持各地存3个月的粮，1个月的煤；外汇外贸要具体化，还有部分外贸任务没有货源的问题要落实，等等。他一直强调，国家计委一定要统筹兼顾，从综合平衡上考虑问题，安排计划千万不可单打一，顾此失彼。 在1958年年底和1959年1月份，贾拓夫向周恩来总理和中央财经小组汇报时，一再就具体问题如实提出困难。 他说：“武昌会议回来后，日夜苦干搞年度计划，情况知道得更多，问题暴露更多。现在总的来说，武昌会议通过的指标大盘子不动，但从各方面来看，具体的需要加以调整。” 他指出：“要从1958年大跃进的基础来安排1959年的计划。1958年大跃进，主要表现在四个方面：工业、农业、基本建设、人民公社。结合起来看，生产力有很大发展，生产关系有很大的变革。1958年在经济活动方面的一些情况和1959年的安排是密切分不开的。有一些情况要考虑进去。 “1．劳动力的鼓足干劲确实做到了，如果有缺点的话，是有一部分有过之而无不及。 “2．物力，挖掘潜力差不多到了顶点，周转量吃掉了不少，钢材少了几十万吨。这种情况和当前的待料现象有关。 “3．钢铁有很大发展，带动了其他。钢铁的数量，铁报的是2100万吨，而比较好的一、二类铁1300万吨；钢报的是1100万吨，好钢能轧钢材的约800万吨，比上年增加50%。经济周转中发生了变化，人民公社自筹的资金不能达到140亿元。钢铁补贴至少要16—20亿元。现在就要抓这个基础上的质量问题（按：已明确涉及到大炼钢铁的质量水平问题）。 “4．粮食、棉花。武昌会议时定的粮食1958年有7500亿斤，棉花6700万担，这对整个计划关系甚大。如果粮食7500亿斤没有虚假，是一个情况；如果变化幅度不大，也不要紧。1958年究竟有多少？对1959年关系很大。 “5. 1958年大跃进中，某些比例关系有失调现象。在安排1959年计划过程中，感到更为深刻、具体了，1959年应该注意到这个问题。这是1959年经济中带有根本性的问题。 “6．成本、经济周转方面是否有问题。1958年财政收入达450亿元是不是可靠？有没有虚假成分？ “7．各部门不配套、设备不配套的问题突出，成套才有生命，才能形成生产力。 “8．协作关系。旧有的协作关系相当程度地打乱了，搞不好影响速度。搞好了，可以变成好的因素。 “9．技术革命。有些是成功的，有些还不能肯定，也有些是失败的。要进一步摸清楚才成。 “10．库存、周转搞掉了是不利的。 “以上这些对1959年计划安排都有直接关系。考虑诸如此类的因素，按照武昌会议方案，提出具体调整方案，搞了三张大表。为什么这么调整，已和各部谈过，因时间太短，搞得还嫌仓促。” 他具体地汇报了各种计划指标和措施调整的内容，还讲到调整的精神原则是： 1.四项基本指标，力争完成。这几条杠杠不能动，必须保证完成。 2.要调整比例关系。 3.要压缩空气，脚踏实地，指标要可靠落实。 4.周转、后备必须考虑进去，要留有余地。 5.中央和地方要一盘棋。 6.生产和生活要两条腿走路。对生活方面，过去我们注意不够，应予以重视，甚至有些方面还要优先。 7.项目、材料、投资要三结合，综合平衡。 8.多快好省要全面考虑。 9.工农业、轻重工业、中央和地方、大中小、土和洋五个并举要认真执行，大中小结合中要注意中小。 10.生产和建设要两者兼顾，如有矛盾，要先生产后建设。 11.今年、明年要两者兼顾，如有矛盾，要先今年，后明年。 12.要千方百计，搞积极促进措施。 最后，他还详细地谈了对这样的调整方案的看法，认为： 1.同武昌会议方案比较，全面了一些。 2.总的来看，如按现在这样安排下来，形势会比较缓和一些。 3.比例关系有所调整，可相当抑制失调的加剧。 4.仍有不少缺口。 5.还是很紧张的局面，因为： 1958年大跃进，好铁增加500万吨，1959年要再增加三个500万吨； 1958年好钢增加270万吨，1959年要再增1000万吨； 1958年钢材增加了200万吨，1959年要再增加四个200万吨。 而这些增加的产量，有三分之一以上是依靠当年新建的能力，影响基建规模的生产能力就要达到一倍。具体地说，按调整之后的方案，依靠新建增加的产量： 钢材占35.7%；洗煤占65.5%；铁矿石占37.5%；铜占62%；发电量占19.2%；煤炭占5.9%；原油占13.2%；水泥占22.5%；硫酸占33.3%；重型机械占36%；发电设备占18%；货车占30%。 他特别说明：“所以，按降下来的结果，也不是保守，不是降了积极性，而是缓和了紧张方面。即使如此，还是积极的，还有紧张。如果有问题的话，还是要再落实。 他在继续谈到工作具体化，计划安排的做法，基本建设仍存在的投资下降，要抓市场安排共10个问题的看法后，说：“现在的计划安排有些困难，还需要继续去摸索，很好地来调整安排。究竟这样行不行？还要过几关。要同各部、各地方再商量，经过那几个考验，最后还要经过实践的考验。” 他还非常有针对性地讲过如下的意见： “武昌会议定钢产量2000万吨之后，印象最深刻的，一是全国一盘棋；二是以钢为纲；三是留有余地；四是搞平均先进定额，五是毛主席几次讲到的计划要有根据，根据要落实。” “回来以后，摸清了一下计划根据怎么样？一算，根据不够。按武昌会议精神，1959年计划是得费些工夫好好摸一摸，算一算。1958年大跃进，成绩是伟大的，但要做具体分析，有不少新问题。我对有些问题的看法，也有很多胡思乱想。我和几个同志谈过：1958年大跃进，总的是好的，但也有某些方面是可以注意的。所以说可以从不好的方面着想一下。例如工业速度是否增加得过高了？新增劳动力三分之二，原有的只有三分之一，是否过多了？1959年的速度可以增加50%，但如果1958年农业没有那么多，要下来，那轻工业势必就会减少。现在是要搞实在了，的确不那么容易。到底怎么样？还要研究。” “以钢为纲。1958年达1100万吨是很大的成绩。能够拿出来做钢材的好钢800万吨，比1957年增加了50%，270万吨，这是了不起的事情。农业方面，假定粮食没有7000亿斤，有5000亿斤也是了不起的，比1957年增加50%。问题是要把数字搞实际。如果实际情况并不是这样的，至少轻工业产品指标就不能按1958年粮食7000亿斤来安排。 “假定1959年钢产量是2000万吨好钢，那就是再增加4个270万吨，比1958年再增加一倍半。2000万吨究竟怎么样？铁的问题，联系到矿山，究竟怎么样？轧钢、设备到底怎么样？现有的潜力发挥能有多少？这是钢的两头的问题。洗煤、钢铁产量的指标，有30%以上要靠新增能力，那设备能力至少要增加一倍。到底在什么条件下面？搞多少才是可靠？” “1956年到1957年指标上下不大，可是1958年到1959年指标一上一下很大，这是应当注意的。” “有计划按比例是有必然性的，我们对此认识还不够。” “现在怎么办？办法：一是要把问题展开，把资料搞确实一点。在此基础上再好好分析。二是可以设想几个方案，从中找出比较适当的'地点'。” 虽然，贾拓夫是从安排1959年计划的具体实际出发，分析问题，研究办法，提出建议。但是，他已经是在中央主管这一层次上，触到了实质性问题，已不仅仅是对武昌会议定的具体指标的“动摇”和“怀疑”，而是从计划指标的数字、发展速度，触到了大跃进的总体指导思想方面。也可以说，他已经进入危险的“雷区”。他自己在会上也说：“现在下这个决心，责任确实很大，心情十分沉重！办法还是要请大家来考虑。”他当时究竟怎么想的呢？现在人们已无从探究。但是，毛泽东说过他“头颅不长角”的那样形象，似乎已不复存在。这时，也就是1958年12月份和1959年1月份的时间里，他不仅“头上长出了角”，而且颇有棱角和锋芒了。就是从这个时期开始，他已不仅身入“雷区”，而且危险也越来越严重。看起来，他已经把个人的荣辱进退置之度外。现在回想起来，我们不能指责他缺乏政治经验，过于“呆板”和“认死理”，反倒要钦佩他能保持独立见解，勇敢地正视问题，敢于仗义执言，直述己见。 就在他向中央财经小组坦荡陈述上面这些意见后不长时间，发生了一件更加令人震动的事情。那是在1959年过年时，毛泽东主席请几位主管财经工作的副总理吃饭。陈云在席间提出：“1959年钢指标的问题，我倾向降到1600万吨。”毛泽东停顿了一下，说：“我随时准备修改总路线。”一句话如雷霆万钧，使人振聋发聩。从此，计划指标的问题与党的社会主义建设总路线紧紧联系到一起。具体的经济指标变成了严重的重大政治问题，不仅不能再议论指标的高低，而且预示了一场风暴已经开始酝酿和形成。形势变得严峻起来了。 1959年1月18日左右，李富春向贾拓夫讲了这件事。贾拓夫立时感到了巨大的压力，心情变得格外沉重。 随后的1959年1月底至2月初，中央在北京召开了工作会议（即北京会议）。基本的调子还是指标涨而不降，只有少数人，如湖南省委书记周小舟、山西省委书记陶鲁笳等在会上讲了困难，还提到：“看来搞经济并不是件容易的事情。”但这时的空气，就是把不同的意见和指标问题与修改总路线的政治问题联到了一起。毛泽东在会上说：“完不成指标也不要如丧考妣。”当然，也就不能再议指标如何，陈云在会上也不再讲指标需要降低的意见，只是对以前作了检讨。1964年9月，毛主席说过：“有时真理是在少数人手里。1959年1月，我建议开会，这是陈云跟我谈了一次话的影响。开了一个星期的会，（指标）仍然不动。我的意思是降低指标。我希望陈云出来讲几句话，谁料他讲的是自我批评。”这虽然表示毛主席后来