Chapter 11 Chapter two

"Hello, Liang!... Can you define 'low-cost economic growth' in a few simple words? This is a new concept for me...Thank you for your help." This is an email from Michael Spence to Liang Yanshun on February 26, 2002. Who is Michael Spence? The name and resume of the 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics, professor at Stanford University, and world-renowned economist Michael Spence can be found on the website of the United Nations. On April 12, 2002, the world-class economics guru wrote again: "I now understand your point of view. This is a good point of view and has aroused widespread interest." "I am very happy to look forward to the opportunity to China discusses your views with you face to face."

A month later, Spence wrote again: "I am in London now, and I will fly to Beijing on May 27. My mobile phone number is the United States ××××××. I am still not sure whether the itinerary is suitable. We I will stay at the Continental Hotel." Two days later, Liang Yanshun received another email from Spence: "I will arrive tomorrow, but I don't know our itinerary. If it is suitable, I will be happy to have a discussion with you." On the morning of the 27th, Spence's email appeared on Liang Yanshun's computer screen again: "Although the plane was late, it finally arrived. It would be best to have a discussion today and give a speech tomorrow."

For various reasons they failed to meet each other, and Spence returned with regret. Why would such an important figure in academia want to "meet" a young Chinese scholar without any introduction? This is also what confused me before I knew Liang Yanshun's "low-cost economic growth theory".When someone invited me to write a report on Liang Yanshun's low-cost economic growth theory, he introduced that it was "more realistic and long-term meaningful" than Chen Jingrun's "Goldbach Conjecture" research results.I was skeptical at first, but it quickly became apparent that it wasn't sensational.

Engels said something like this: "In Marx's view, science is a historically propelling, revolutionary force. Every new discovery in any theoretical science—its practical application may not be possible at all." Foresight—all delighted Marx.”Marx paid so much attention to the contribution of scientific theory because scientific theory is "the essence of the spirit of the times and the torch of human development."Each of its major discoveries and developments has revolutionized human progress and historical progress. Low-cost economic growth theory should belong to this category.However, the production of any kind of theory has to go through the process of never being understood to being understood.Liang Yanshun knew this well, and embarked on the road of exploration with the fearless spirit of a brave man.He hummed Guo Xiaochuan's verse, "In the world of youth, grains of sand should be turned into pearls, stones should be turned into gold... The charm of youth should make dead branches show fresh fruits, and deserts should be covered with forests... This is the true meaning of life." The beauty of youth, the joy of youth, the duty of youth", began a long-distance race in pursuit of truth.And this kind of long-distance running is a competition with the fast-moving GDP fast train, comparing the direction and the speed per hour.Some people ridiculed this game several times as a new "tortoise and hare game", but Liang Yanshun continued the "race" with courage and perseverance and achieved success.

Liang Yanshun, who works in the Central Party School and likes to make friends, has unique "human resources".His student friends are all high-spirited pillars of Chinese society and the "drivers" of the GDP express train.Liang Yanshun can easily go along with these "drivers", or take a ride to sing "Victory Song" together.But Liang Yanshun didn't, he was thinking deeply and exploring. A student mayor was explaining on the podium how his city had developed at a double-digit GDP rate for more than ten consecutive years. Liang Yanshun happened to see from a foreign document that the city where the mayor is located has been included in the satellite One of the several "foggy capitals" in China confirmed on the photo.

"Okay, people compare my city with London, England. Is it too late for me to be happy?" When Liang Yanshun told the news, the mayor actually said so. "You think it's an honor for you to be given the title of 'Fog City'? Wrong, big mistake!" Liang Yanshun, who has a gentle personality, rarely gets angry.He said: "You know the scene of 'London in the fog'?" "I have visited there. The fog in London is really thick, like a mysterious veil, beautiful and spectacular." The mayor said. "It's not beautiful, nor spectacular, but an indelible disaster!" Liang Yanshun emotionally told the mayor the story of "the catastrophe in the fog" London is often surrounded by thick fog every spring and autumn. shrouded.According to statistics, foggy days in London can be as high as 70 to 80 times a year, and there is one "foggy day" in an average of 5 days.The famous British diarist John Evelyn once wrote that "the vast majority of Londoners breathe nothing but thick and foul smoke, plus a foul and smelly gas straight into the lungs, This caused more people in London to suffer from catarrh, asthma, and tuberculosis than the total number of people suffering from these diseases in the whole world." On December 4, 1952, the continuous dense fog lasted for nearly a week, and the smoke and dust emitted by factories and households and A large amount of gas accumulated at low altitudes, and the entire city was shrouded in thick fog, sinking into darkness.During the period, more than 4,700 people died of respiratory diseases; after the fog cleared, more than 8,000 people died of unforeseen circumstances.This is the "fog catastrophe" that shocked the world.

"Oh my God, my city was originally a 'coal city', so it might be a catastrophe like London one day." The mayor was terrified. "What do you think? Remember! Economic construction needs to be fast, but we must pay attention to comprehensive and coordinated development. If you only talk about development, regardless of the cost, such a high GDP is false!" Liang Yanshun said bluntly. The mayor was a little anxious at first, but he quickly said, "Brother Liang, you don't know. We are doing specific work. What time is it now? A city is competing with a city, a region and a region to compare GDP. What? Your GDP is hardened, and everything is hardened! Do you understand?”

"Sooner or later, this situation will change." Liang Yanshun firmly believed in his point of view. The mayor patted Liang Yanshun on the shoulder: "Okay, I'll leave the theoretical issues to your pens!" Liang Yanshun felt a pang of pain in his heart: China's development of a socialist market economy is a great practice that has never been done before, and it will inevitably pay a heavy price if it does not pay attention to the guidance of scientific theories. cost?Is there a price to be paid for the development of nature?Do you have to pay for everything?Some people say that, it seems reasonable.

But this understanding is superficial.The role of economic science is to guide practice so that economic development does not take detours or takes fewer detours.However, in real life, people are often dominated and led by some wrong theories. Liang Yanshun found in the study of Western economic theories, from the "multi-factor determinism" advocated by Adam Smith, Ricardo and later Denison, Kuznets, etc., to François Quesnay, the originator of the French Physiocratic School And later the "capital determinism" of Keynes, Harold, Thomas, etc., to the "income distribution determinism" of Joan Robinson, Cador and Parsonetti of the New Cambridge School, to Solow and Abramo Weitz's "determinism of technological progress", to the "determinism of knowledge and human capital" of German historical school pioneer Friedrich List and later Schulz, Lucas, Romer and others, these Western economic The classic works of scholars, when analyzing the theory of economic growth, consciously or unconsciously follow the following two assumptions: (1) everything that is produced is beneficial, that is, it is included in the income; , at no cost.That is to say, the effects of factor inputs are all positive.

These theories influenced most of the 19th century and almost the entire 20th century.In China's economic development after the reform and opening up, these theories have also influenced the theoretical circles, especially the practical work in economic operation. "In fact, factors that affect economic growth, such as labor, land, capital, technological progress, human capital, and knowledge factors with a broad meaning, do not have a one-way effect on economic growth. They can increase material wealth and promote economic growth. , and will produce negative effects, such as wasting resources, destroying the ecological environment, causing a large number of defective products, man-made accidents, and many social problems, etc." Liang Yanshun said.

The one-sidedness of the premise of any theory will inevitably lead to the one-sidedness of the theory itself.The result of Liang Yanshun's research is: if the duality of factor input effects is introduced into the growth theory, then almost all the conclusions of western economic growth theories "need to be reconsidered and revised." "An economic policy that only seeks growth regardless of cost, and only cares about immediate benefits without thinking about the future will inevitably lead to a situation in which economic growth coexists with heavy costs. This has been proved by the historical facts of modern economic growth." Liang Yanshun is confirming the Western economy When addressing the flaws of the theory, it is also proving the correctness of one's own point of view. "Resources, ecology, environment and other issues are the research objects of development economics, and economic growth theory should not involve these issues." An authoritative person retorted Liang Yanshun. Liang Yanshun responded with his own research results: "This kind of view is untenable. Because on the one hand, the original meaning of economic growth is the increase of gross national product or national income or national wealth, while the cost of economic growth is only the cost In terms of economic significance, it is manifested as the waste and reduction of gross national product or national income or national wealth. What human beings should pursue is pure economic growth after deducting the cost. Therefore, it is unreasonable to artificially separate the two aspects of an issue, and it violates the laws of economics. On the other hand, it seems that only underdeveloped countries have developed an extremely harmful perception Or developing countries have a series of problems such as waste of resources, environmental pollution, and ecological damage. Therefore, these cost issues have naturally become the research object of development economics. In fact, countries that cause global waste of resources, environmental pollution, and ecological damage The first is the developed countries." The United States, the world's largest economic power, developed faster than any other country from the 1920s to the 1970s.Its degree of industrialization and informatization is adequate, but the United States cannot get rid of the black hat of "big environmental polluter" in the world.According to data provided by the United Nations Environment Program, the United States accounts for only 5% of the world's population, but accounts for 24% of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. Many people will remember a "Kyoto Protocol" called limiting carbon dioxide emissions. On this document , other countries have signed, but the United States does not do it.Why?Because it can't. The lessons of Japan are not the same.Japan's largest chemical plant "Sensu Corporation" released methylmercury into Minamata Bay, causing 2,248 people to suffer from "Minamata Disease", and 1,004 of them died.If the methylmercury emitted by this factory is not controlled, the factory will have to pay the residents as much as 97 million U.S. dollars in damages every year, which is equivalent to taking nearly 30% of the profits from the annual profit as compensation. The furious fire of "smashing the factory". The cost of economic growth is a worldwide problem.A large number of solid data and facts show that Western developed countries have paid a heavy price for this, and have not fundamentally solved it yet.The situation in China is not optimistic either. Material civilization is overturning the existing rules, but it is impossible to hold back the train of human development.The train of the advancing era is running without stopping, and what we can do is to choose the best speed and the most energy-saving for it. "Mr. Su, my theoretical analysis part is out." One morning, Liang Yanshun excitedly came to Professor Su Xing's office with a stack of manuscripts in his arms. In the draft of tens of thousands of words, there is an analysis of the schools of Western economic growth theory and its one-sidedness, and a discussion of the process of establishing a low-cost growth model.The use of mathematics for economic analysis is a major feature of this first draft.Please see the derivation below—— Y(t)=AK(t)αLβ(t)P(-1)-γ(t)eλt (1) In the formula, A is still a constant, and λ is the residual value.Taking the logarithm on both sides of (1), we get: (dY/dt)/Y=α(dK/dt)/K+β(dL/dt)/L-γ(dP(-1)/dt)/P(-1)+λ In the above formula, (dY/dt)/Y is the economic growth rate GY; (dK/dt)/K is the capital investment growth rate GK; (dL/dt)/L is the labor input growth rate GL; (dP(- 1)/dt)/P(-1) is the cost growth rate GP. So, got GY=αGK+βGL-γGP+λ(2) This is the low-cost economic growth model.Building this model requires a fairly solid mathematical foundation.This is Liang Yanshun's specialty. In 1979, at the age of 16, he entered Shandong University of Technology with outstanding test scores in the province.It is said that the math test questions that year were extremely difficult, and those who could score 40 to 50 points could enter colleges and universities, but Liang Yanshun scored 85 points in the test, which is very rare in the whole province. A female teacher in charge of enrollment at Shandong University of Technology is proud of this for a while.Liang Yanshun was relaxed and full of energy when he was an undergraduate. For this reason, he also studied and solved this "world-class problem" under the enthusiasm of "Goldbach's Conjecture" at that time.After graduating from university, Liang Yanshun, as the only student staying in school among the fresh graduates of the whole department, worked as a political counselor and the Communist Youth League. In 1989, with the approval of the school, he was admitted to the master's degree of the Japanese Institute of Liaoning University.Liang Yanshun was once fascinated by the research of the Japanese economy, but soon he found that this kind of research was far from his own ambitions. Japan's economy is almost mature, and China's modernization has just started. There are so many problems that need someone to study, why bother to look far away? Resolutely gave up the opportunity to study in Japan, came to Beijing alone, and applied for the examination under the famous economist Su Xing. Spence, the Nobel laureate in economics, met Liang Yanshun, a young Chinese scholar, in Beijing on the last day of May 2004 after many twists and turns. In the VIP building of the Friendship Hotel in the western suburbs of Beijing, Spence and Liang Yanshun immediately said Liang, maybe you don’t even know how much your "low-cost economic growth" theory has had an impact on the world economics. With his own courage and boldness, he was the first to point out the common flaws in the western economic growth theories founded or respected by many Nobel Prize winners in economics, ignoring the duality of factor input effects that affect economic growth, and the resulting economic The price of growth. Before Liang Yanshun opened his mouth, the founder of the theory of information asymmetry in economics raised his voice and said, Liang, the low-cost economic growth theory you proposed is of great significance not only to China, but also to the world economics. Liang Yanshun couldn't help being excited when he heard this, because his "cost theory" found itself full of the true meaning of cost...