Chapter 24 (24) Red Cliff Suspicion

After the persuasion of Lu Su, Zhou Yu and Zhuge Liang, Sun Quan judged the situation and finally decided to unite with Liu Bei and fight against Cao Cao, and the Battle of Chibi took place.However, the historical records of this war are full of doubts, and historians have different opinions. Some people even think that it was just an ordinary encounter.So what is the truth about the Battle of Chibi?Please pay attention to it - Chibi Suspicion. Battle of Chibi.It is a well-known example in the history of Chinese wars in which the less wins the more, and it took eight chapters to describe the course of the war with rich ink and color. Among them, the stories of "War with Confucianism", "Zhou Yu with Wisdom", and "Borrowing Arrows from Straw Boats" can be said. It is well known to women and children.However, regarding this war, historical records are full of doubts. One of them believes that Cao Jun only had 5,000 people during the Battle of Chibi.Historians also have different opinions on the cause of Cao Cao's failure, and some people attribute it to the destiny.So what was the process of the Battle of Chibi?How did Sun and Liu Lianjun defeat Cao Cao?What kind of inspiration does the success or failure of the Battle of Chibi have for us modern people?Professor Yi Zhongtian of Xiamen University will find a unique way to analyze the "Red Cliff Mysteries" for you.

In this episode we talk about the Battle of Chibi. The Battle of Chibi is a famous war in the history of the Three Kingdoms. Anyone who knows a little bit about the Three Kingdoms knows about the Battle of Chibi. This is due to Luo Guanzhong, because Luo Guanzhong's vivid description is this battle war.Some people say that this book is 70% true and 30% false, but only on the issue of the Battle of Chibi, it is 70% false and 30% true.The Battle of Chibi actually left very few records in the official history of this war, and there are many contradictions, but there are a lot of problems left over.What's the problem?Five questions: first, who started the war; second, what was the scale; third, the time and place; fourth, the result of the process; fifth, the reasons for victory or defeat.There are so many problems in these five issues that the "New Chibi Battle" broke out in the historian circle many times, so let's look at them one by one.

Whose war is the first?In other words, was this war originally a battle between Cao and Liu, or a battle between Cao and Sun?It should be said that at the beginning, when Cao Cao went south in July of the thirteenth year of Jian'an, his purpose was to capture Jingzhou, defeat Liu Biao, and destroy Liu Bei. This purpose should be basically completed after Cao Cao captured Jiangling. Why did he go down the river?Who is he going down the river to beat?There are two different opinions, one is to beat Liu Bei, and Sun Quan was dragged into the water by Zhuge Liang, Lu Su and Zhou Yu; there is another point of view, that is, to beat Sun Quan. That letter, and that letter we know itself to be suspicious.So in my opinion, it should be said that his Sun Jiangdong went to beat Liu Bei and Sun Quan.Because this can be proved by Sun Quan’s words to Zhou Yu. Sun Quan said to Zhou Yu: Brother Gongjin, you lead the army and go first.He said this, which shows that Cao Cao's goal is Sun Quan; if Cao Cao's goal is Liu Bei, and Sun Quan was dragged into the water to help Liu Bei, Sun Quan should say this: Brother Gongjin, take the troops to see, fight If you win, let's make a fortune, if you don't win, come back quickly, we don't care about Liu Yuzhou's life or death.He should have said so.But the problem is that this passage of Sun Quan is recorded in "Jiang Biao Zhuan", whether it is reliable or not is also a question, let's put it down first.

The second is what is the scale?There is a saying that Cao Cao actually only had 5,000 men in this battle, that is, the 5,000 light cavalry he chased after Liu Bei all the way. Where is the evidence?The evidence is in Zhuge Liang's words. Zhuge Liang told Sun Quan that Cao Cao's labor force went on an expedition and chased Liu Yuzhou for 300 miles a day and a night. It was the end of his battle to reach this place. Obviously he was referring to the 5,000 light cavalry.But if Cao Cao's army only had these 5,000 light cavalry, Liu Bei met Zhou Yu, and Zhou Yu told him that he had brought 30,000 light cavalry. How could Liu Bei say "very few"?You add 30,000 to Liu Bei's 10,000, and Liu Qi's 10,000, so 50,000 is still less than 5,000?It can be seen that Cao Cao has more than 5,000 people at this time.Moreover, the text of "Zhou Yu's Biography" is very clear, saying: "Cao Gong entered Jingzhou, Liu Cong surrendered, and Cao Gong won his navy, with hundreds of thousands of boats and infantry." This is recorded in the text of "Three Kingdoms·Zhou Yu Biography", In other words, Cao Cao should have hundreds of thousands of people at this time. We don’t know exactly how many hundreds of thousands. The academic circles say that there are 500,000, 400,000, and 200,000. Even I did the calculation in the last episode. 800,000 is 50,000, 400,000, 200,000, and 100,000.

Then these accounts are calculated to determine the time and place of this war. If the statement of 5,000 people can be established, what does this statement mean?That is, Cao Cao's five thousand light cavalrymen chased from Xiangyang to Dangyang for three hundred miles in one day and one night, and after beating Liu Bei and his fellows, they arrived in Jiangling, and then rushed over from Jiangling. , a guy bumped into it, an encounter, so Cao Cao was defeated.If this is the case, the time should be October of the thirteenth year of Jian'an, it is very fast.And if the purpose of Cao Cao's war this time was to fight Sun Quan, then he would never dare to use only these five thousand light cavalry. He must gather troops, and it will take him some time to gather troops.Then the time of this war should be December of the thirteenth year of Jian'an.Where is the place?The opinions of the academic circles, the tendentious opinions, are in the territory of Puqi County, Hubei Province. Now Puqi County has been renamed Chibi City. It is either the Chibi in Huangzhou, or the Chibi where Su Dongpo wrote Chibi Fu and Chibi Ci.So now there is a saying in Hubei called "Wenwu Chibi". Wen Chibi is the Chibi where Su Dongpo wrote Chibi Ci and Chibi Fu. Wu Chibi is the Chibi in Chibi City, the Chibi of the Battle of Chibi.

After Mr. Yi Zhongtian's analysis, the time, place, and mission of the Battle of Chibi have been determined. What we care about is how Cao Cao and Sun Liu's coalition forces planned this life-and-death battle.What is described in the book is that Zhuge Liang planned the fire attack, determined the strategy of resisting Cao, and at the same time helped Zhou Yu borrow arrows from the straw boat, and prepared weapons; while Cao Cao sent Jiang Gan politically to persuade Zhou Yu to surrender, and at the same time, he was aggressive militarily and aggressively attacked , However, Cao Jun failed in the battle on the first day of junior high school. What's going on?What was the process of the Battle of Chibi in history?

Then the following question is the process and the result.This process is very wonderfully written. From the beginning of decision-making to the end of the war, there are many, many stories in it, and these stories have become new idioms.But as I said, on this issue, it is seven points false and three points true. Many things have never happened. Suddenly one day when he was ill, Zhuge Liang went to see him, and wrote a note in his palm, saying that if you want to break Mr. Cao, you must use fire to attack him. Everything is prepared only for the east wind. This is not true, but it has become our mantra, and so on. no.Then there are some things that have a shadow, for example, Jiang Gan’s tricks, this has a shadow, why?There is such a person as Jiang Gan.In addition, the matter of straw boats borrowing arrows also has a little influence, but it didn't happen to Zhuge Liang, but it happened to Sun Quan. The time was in the eighteenth year of Jian'an, which was later than the Battle of Chibi.In the eighteenth year of Jian’an, Cao Cao fought with Sun Quan. Once, Sun Quan drove a boat to Cao Cao’s camp to see. Cao Cao ordered to shoot an arrow, and the arrow hit Sun Quan’s boat. Then the boat tilted and tilted, so Sun Quan gave an order Turn around and let him shoot again. Cao Cao shot again, and then the arrows on both sides were almost equal. After a while, the boat leveled up, and Sun Quan drove the boat away.Speaking of such a story, he is not borrowing arrows.And some people have calculated that it is technically impossible to borrow arrows from straw boats. He has calculated how many straw people, how heavy these straw people are, how long they are arranged in a row, and how many boats are needed to borrow more than 100,000 arrows. , Wait, wait, someone has calculated it, and I will not calculate this, it is technically impossible, and we will talk about this matter later.

So what is the actual combat situation like?Let me tell you about the process recorded in official history.The more reliable official history records are "Three Kingdoms·Zhou Yu Biography". The original text of "Zhou Yu Biography" is as follows: "At that time, Duke Cao's army was already sick. On the first day of the first day of the new year, the army was defeated and retreated. Citing Jiangbei, Yu waited on the south bank." That is to say, Cao Cao led the navy from Jiangling down the Yangtze River to the east, and Zhou Yu and others led the Sun Liu coalition army up the Yangtze River. Where are the two families?We met at this place in Chibi.At this time, Cao Cao's army was already sick, and Cao's army was defeated as soon as they fought, so Cao's army retreated to the north bank of the Yangtze River. Wulin, where is Wulin?In what is now Honghu City in Hubei Province, the Sun-Liu Allied Army was stationed on the south bank, in Chibi.So why did Cao Cao lose the battle on the first day of the new year?Four reasons, Mr. Zhang Zuoyao's "Cao Cao's Commentary" describes the process of such a war and the reasons for the victory and defeat. Friends who are interested can read it. Mr. Zhang pointed out that there are four reasons for Cao Cao's failure in the first day of junior high school: The first reason is that the disease is prevalent. Cao Jun has already contracted a serious infectious disease and lost his combat effectiveness; the second reason is that Cao Jun is not familiar with water warfare. It was originally an army in the north, and it is not good at water warfare; the third reason The reason is that Cao Cao didn't know the enemy well. He just didn't expect that he would bump into the Sun Liu coalition army and underestimated the enemy. The fourth reason is that he met on a narrow road. The war is on the river, so what's the use of having a lot of people on the river?In such a big place, if you meet a group of people who are not used to water battles and are sick, you must be defeated.That is, the two armies are stationed across the river.

Both Zhou Yu and Zhuge Liang had expected the results of the battle on the first day of junior high school. We can recall how Zhou Yu and Zhuge Liang analyzed the war in our last episode. Everyone has mentioned it, and those who are not familiar with water warfare have also mentioned it.Another thing I think is very important is the nature of the war. Cao Cao came to fight Liu Bei and Sun Quan. In today's words, it is an "aggressive war". We can use quotation marks because it was not a relationship between countries at that time, so It can only be put in quotation marks, "aggressive war".Then Sun Quan and Liu Bei, we also have to put quotation marks: "Self-defense counterattack".That is, Sun Quan and Liu Bei's armies fought to defend their homes and the country, and their fighting spirit was high; while Cao Cao's side, as Zhou Yu and Zhuge Liang said, was led by exhausted people who were dissatisfied, so there were so many reasons for fighting on the first day of the new year. Added together, Cao Cao was defeated.

Although Cao Cao was unfavorable, Cao Jun had already traveled a long distance to the edge of the Yangtze River. Crossing the river and flattening Soochow was just around the corner. Of course, Cao Cao would not lose this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to unify the country.However, most of Cao's army is from the north, and it is a fact that their combat effectiveness on the water is not strong. Therefore, Pang Tong in the book described Pang Tong's plan to connect Cao's ships with chains. Liu Lianjun took advantage of the opportunity, so the most exciting plot of burning Cao's warships in the Battle of Chibi came about.So who was the first to think of the plan to burn the warship?After the defeat, did Cao Cao meet Guan Yu in Huarong Road?

Cao Cao was defeated, what should he do after defeat?It was already December at this time, and the Yangtze River was cold and windy, and the ship was bumped by the waves, and Cao Cao's army, who were used to riding horses and not used to taking a boat, and they were sick, might be on board. Also vomiting.At this time, Cao Cao thought of a way to connect these ships, and combine the small boats to form a large ship, which will not be bumpy.So who came up with the idea?I don't know if it was thought up by Cao Cao himself or by Cao Cao's advisers. There is no record, but it is definitely not Pang Tong.According to "Three Kingdoms • Pang Tong Biography", Pang Tong did not participate in this war at all, and neither Pang Tong nor Xu Shu had anything to do.But such an approach gave Sun and Liu allied forces an opportunity. At this time, Zhou Yu's general Huang Gai said to Zhou Yu: "There are too many invaders and we are few, and it will not last long. However, if you watch the warships meet end to end, you can burn them to death." Let's go." The four words "the bandit is outnumbered" also proves that Cao Cao has a lot of people at this time. In addition to the navy stationed in a row on the north bank, his army has also arrived and set up camp. on the shore.Huang Gai said that now there are many enemies and few of us, so it is not a problem to continue this stalemate, but I think they have connected the boats together, so there is a way, "you can burn it and go away", we just let it go Fire, burn him away.Zhou Yu followed Huang Gai's strategy.So Huang Gai made a false surrender, and there are false surrenders, and he also sent someone to send a letter of false surrender. Cao Cao also questioned the person who sent the letter, and then said that if you really surrendered, then I must be rewarded heavily. Anyway it is. So here Zhou Yu and Huang Gai prepared dozens of boats, filled the boats with firewood, poured oil on them, and then covered the firewood with a piece of cloth to cover the firewood, and planted flags on the boats. They got some boats, which was probably the one they fled back from.It so happened that one day, a southeast wind blew suddenly. I don’t know how it blew. Anyway, it was not borrowed by Zhuge Liang. Anyway, it blew that day, so Huang Gai’s army boarded a boat and went to the north bank. They hung a lowered flag and said loudly, Ah, here comes Huang Gai's surrender.Cao Cao's army was very happy, and they all ran out with a "huh", stood on the boat, stood on the shore and watched, and said, look at Huang Gai, it is him, Huang Gai, who surrendered, surrendered, it's great.When Huang Gai's boat arrived, they set fire together. The burning boat collided with Cao Cao's boat. With the strong southeast wind, it burned from Cao Cao's water camp to Cao Cao's army camp on the shore.Some of the people who came out to watch the excitement at this time caught fire and were burned to death, and some jumped into the water because they were afraid of being burned to death, and then drowned.Cao Cao saw that it was hopeless, so he gave an order to set fire to it, and we also set it on fire. I burned all the unburned boats. Anyway, I have to leave. This boat can’t be left to Liu Bei and Zhou Yu. Let’s burn it ourselves. ,withdraw. Withdraw, the withdrawal is very embarrassing, where do we go from here?Hua Rong said.What was the situation in Huarong Road at that time?The north wind was bitter, the road was muddy, and it probably had just rained, making it impossible for people to walk.Cao Cao had no choice but to issue an order to let the soldiers fill the road with grass.What is Lei Bing?It is those who are weak, who may be infirm, the old, the weak, the sick, or even the wounded, or those who have infectious diseases. Let them carry grass to fill the road.Before the road was completely filled, Cao Cao's cavalry rushed over. As a result, these weak soldiers who filled the road with grass were trampled in the mud by Cao Cao's cavalry, and died in a terrible way.This incident reflects two points. One is Cao Cao’s embarrassment when he fled, and he couldn’t care about anything at that time. Second, it is true that Cao Cao’s heart is too cruel. Out of humanitarian considerations, what he should do at this time is to take care of himself. After the elite soldiers were cut off, the wounded and sick were allowed to leave first, but at that time it seemed that there was no concept of humanitarianism, let alone Cao Cao. How could Cao Cao have a concept of humanitarianism?He has never spared the lives of others for his own success, we will talk about this later.By the way, there is no such thing as Guan Yu not being blocked on Huarong Road.This is the whole process of the Battle of Chibi. The Battle of Chibi ended in failure for Cao Cao. As Mr. Yi Zhongtian said, Cao Cao defeated Yuan Shao because he had a banner of justice, while fighting the Soochow Group was an "aggressive" war, so he lost.However, some people think that Cao Cao has an absolute advantage, and it is destiny to lose to the Sun Liu coalition.So, what is the root cause of Cao Cao's failure in the Battle of Chibi in Mr. Yi Zhongtian's opinion?According to this point of view, what fatal mistakes did Cao Cao make in the Battle of Chibi?How did Cao Cao go from having an absolute advantage to fleeing in defeat step by step? From this, Pei Songzhi summed up two reasons for Cao Cao's defeat. Where is Pei Songzhi's summary?In the notes of "Three Kingdoms: Biography of Jia Xu", it is neither in "The Biography of Wu Zhu", nor in "The First Master's Biography", nor in "Zhuge Liang's Biography", nor in "Zhou Yu's Biography" or "Lu Su Biography", but in "The Biography of Lu Su" "Jia Xu Biography" inside.Pei Songzhi put it this way. He said: "The defeat of Chibi was due to luck. It was actually caused by the great epidemic to damage the fierce front; the strong wind came from the south, and it was used to become a burning force. It is true that it is not human. Well!" Then according to Pei Songzhi's point of view, the reason why Cao Cao suffered such a big defeat in the Battle of Chibi was firstly because his army encountered "SARS" or "bird flu" and got a battle we are talking about now. An epidemic infectious disease with a large area of ​​unknown name; of course, the second is that he never dreamed that the southeast wind would blow from the southeast in winter, which is really bad luck.That's why Pei Songzhi said, "Heaven really does it, but people don't care about it." This is because the sky wants to destroy him, not because of his own fault.But we disagree with this point of view. I think there are objective reasons and subjective reasons for Cao Cao's defeat in this war, and Cao Cao's subjective reasons are still very important.On this issue, I will analyze the reasons for Cao Cao’s failure by referring to the viewpoints put forward in Mr. Zhang Zuoyao’s "Cao Cao Commentary" and other viewpoints in the academic circle. Of course, it is also my personal viewpoint, which is for reference only. We know that Cao Cao had an advantage in launching this war. What advantage does he have?Four advantages: First, Cao Cao coerced the emperor to command the princes, and the princes dared not compete with him. This is called political advantage.The second point is that Cao Cao won Jingzhou and shocked the world. Many people were frightened by the news, and Cao Cao had a psychological advantage.The third one is that Cao Cao won Jingzhou like a broken bamboo, and the morale of the army was uplifted. He had an advantage in momentum by fighting against the frightened army with an invigorated and prosperous army.The fourth point is that Cao Cao has a large number of people, and the Sun Liu coalition army is relatively small in number, so Cao Cao has a military advantage.So Cao Cao originally had four major advantages, so he dared to go down the river east to fight Liu Bei and Sun Quan.So why did it fail?I think the fundamental reason is that Cao Cao's strategic goals are unclear.Even now we have been talking for a long time, and even we have not figured out whether he is here to fight Liu Bei or Sun Quan, so now I suspect that he may not know himself, of course he mainly wants to fight Liu Bei, He also thought of hitting Sun Quan by the way, because he had too much appetite and was insatiable. His correct approach at this time should be to target Liu Bei. If he targets Liu Bei, what should he do?After Dangyang defeated Liu Bei, he should take advantage of the victory and pursue it.Let's take a look at the map, what was it like at the time?It was Cao Cao who marched from the north through Wancheng and Wangnan of Yexian County, and Liu Cong surrendered when he arrived in Xinye; A few miles; Cao Cao's five thousand light cavalry chased him three hundred miles a day and one night, and defeated Liu Bei in Dangyang. Where would Liu Bei run at this time? He chased him!He actually broke up with Liu Bei; Liu Bei went to Hanjin, and then went to Xiakou with Lu Su, Zhuge Liang, Zhang Fei, Zhao Yun, and Guan Yu who came to meet him; Cao Cao ran south to Jiangling.If Liu Bei had been targeted, he should have pursued the victory at this time and killed Liu Bei before he reached Xiakou, and captured Lu Su by the way. He did not do this. If he didn't do this, there was still time. He could turn around and chase after he arrived in Jiangling, at least he could wipe out Liu Bei before Sun Liu and the alliance were formed.He didn't do that either. He stopped after arriving in Jiangling. How long did he stop?What are you doing for two months?Appease those who surrendered in Jingzhou, and do political and ideological work.This job should be done, and it cannot be said that he should not do it, but since you have arrived in Jiangling and stopped, you should simply stay for a longer period of time, and simply accept Jia Xu's suggestion.What does Jia Xu suggest?Say you don't go down the river east at this time, you should appease this place, adopt a gentle policy, let the scholars and people in Jingzhou sincerely submit to you, and then Jiangdong will surrender without a fight.He refused and went on the road again two months later.The bad thing is these two months. This time is called neither long nor short. If you stay for a short time, you can defeat Liu Bei and Sun Quan before the alliance; if you stay for a long time, you can make full preparations and wait for the spring of the next year In the future, when the north wind is not blowing and you are not sick, why not fight again.He started the wrong war at the wrong time. Even if he can't do all of this, he actually has another way, which is to stay in Jiangling by himself, send Cao Ren and other generals, and lead the infantry to attack Xiakou. Even if Liu Bei cannot be eliminated, you can block Liu Bei. Or forcing Liu Bei to go south to join Wu Ju, the prefect of Cangwu, that would be better than him going to Sun Quan.Or if your troops come to Xiakou, you can even enter Fankou. If you guard this place, it will also be a deterrent to Sun Quan. Maybe the alliance will fail, and his army will not come if it is done. Chibi ah.He didn't do this either, Cao Cao didn't do any of these things.Why not?How could a military master like Cao Cao make such a series of mistakes?The conclusion of many scholars is that pride underestimates the enemy. Because of pride and underestimation of the enemy, he underestimated the alliance between Sun and Liu. He always thought that Sun Quan would send Liu Bei's head to him like Gongsun Kang. He did not expect that Sun Quan was not Gongsun Kang. At this time Not then.The reason why Cao Cao won consecutive victories in northern China in the early stage was that at that time, the heroes were divided and fought with each other. Cao Cao took advantage of the fisherman's profit. Now he has cleaned up all these princes, leaving only Liu Bei and Sun Quan. Can they not unite?If they don't unite, it will be a dead end. They must be determined to unite against you, Cao Cao didn't expect it.Therefore, Cao Cao's defeat lies in his pride, while Sun and Liu's victory lies in their alliance.As for other problems, those who said that they didn't expect the southeast wind to blow are all minor problems. In addition, there is another possible reason for this, which is age, which was pointed out by Mr. Wu Han.When Mr. Wu Han said about the Battle of Chibi, Sun Quan was 27 years old, Zhuge Liang was 27 years old, Zhou Yu was 34 years old, Lu Su was 37 years old, and Cao Cao was 54 years old. Bing, the young man defeated the old man.In fact, Mr. Wu Han did not include one person, that is, Liu Bei. How old was Liu Bei at that time? He was 47 years old. If Liu Bei is included, what is the average age of the leaders of the Sun-Liu coalition army? 34 years old is exactly Zhou Yu's age, so the Battle of Chibi can also be said that Zhou Yu defeated Cao Cao, and the 34-year-old defeated the 54-year-old. However, although Cao Cao is old and defeated, his heroic character of "Smiling Proud Jianghu" remains the same.After Cao Cao rushed out from Huarong Road, he laughed again.Everyone asked him, why should the prime minister be happy?Cao Cao said: Haha, "Liu Bei, Wu Yu is also", Liu Bei is indeed my opponent; unfortunately, his actions are always a bit late, if he lays an ambush here and sets fire to it, we will The ashes of these people are gone.This time, the defeated Cao Cao laughed again, so can he have the last laugh?Check out the next episode - Halfway.