Chapter 17 (17) Longzhong Countermeasures

The ancient novel "Longzhong Dui" ignited the lamp of hope for Liu Bei who was at the end of the road at that time, and at the same time, it also found an opportunity for Zhuge Liang to display his talents.However, some people think that Zhuge Liang's "Longzhong Pair" is just a theory on paper, and someone has done a similar strategic analysis before.So, how should we view this work?Please pay attention to it - Longzhong countermeasures. As mentioned in the last episode, Liu Bei was thirsty for talents and sincerely came to invite Zhuge Liang, so three visits to the thatched cottage became an eternal story, and their conversation in the thatched cottage is the familiar "Longzhong Dui".From ancient times to the present, most scholars have highly praised the incisive insights in "Longzhong Dui".But some people say that "Longzhong Dui" is a job application letter written by Zhuge Liang to Liu Bei, so it is suspected of talking on paper.So what exactly did Zhuge Liang want to express in "Longzhong Dui"? What exactly was it about "Longzhong Dui" that moved Liu Bei?Professor Yi Zhongtian from Xiamen University is a guest on "Hundreds of Lectures" to analyze the mystery of Longzhong's countermeasures for you. "Longzhong's Countermeasures" is currently being broadcast, so stay tuned.

In this episode we talk about "Longzhong Dui". What is "Longzhong Dui"?The so-called "Longzhong Conversation" is actually a secret talk between Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang in Longzhong. Feidu left the secret room, only Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang talked, Liu Bei asked a question, Liu Bei said: "The Han Dynasty is in decline, treacherous ministers steal their lives, and the master is covered with dust. I am alone and do not measure my strength. I want to believe in righteousness, but my wisdom is short, so I use it rampantly. As of today. However, the ambition is still unfinished. The king said that the plan will be safe." out?"

This is Liu Bei's question. This passage has never been paid much attention to, and people think it is just a cliché, a hat, just like when we write articles now, we must have a beginning when we wear shoes and hats.In fact, this paragraph is meaningful, just say the first twelve words: "The Han Dynasty is in ruins, traitors steal their lives, and the Lord is dusty." It is now that the regime of our Han Dynasty is already very dangerous, and Cao Cao, a traitor, has mastered it. The regime of the country, and our emperor is actually in trouble.This passage Liu Bei must say, it is determined by his identity, because he is the so-called "emperor", that is, he participated in this round of competition as the clan and descendants of the Liu family, he must show that His own political stance, which shows that he cares about the royal family and worries about the world, ensures that he is politically correct, so that his request for Zhuge Liang to help him can be understood and sympathized with.

The next paragraph is not empty talk. The meaning of this paragraph is to explain the situation, declare determination, express sincerity, and ask questions.What's the situation?It is my "short intellect, so I use it rampantly"; what determination? "The ambition is still unfinished"; in this way, "the king said that the plan will be released", please talk about it, what should I do?Of course Zhuge Liang understood and sympathized with his intentions.And Zhuge Liang also clearly understood the key question raised by Liu Bei, "Your Majesty said that the plan will be settled", not to say that the lord is dusty, what should we do if our emperor is having a hard time now, but that I, Liu Bei, have a shallow mind, so I used the rampant , As for today, I have been living under the fence, wandering, and can't achieve great things, what should I do?Therefore, Zhuge Liang's answer to this question did not start with "the traitor steals his life, and the lord is dusty", he answered him a real question, what is it?Zhuge Liang analyzed the situation in the world today for Liu Bei. What did he say is the situation in the world today?yes

"Since Dong Zhuo has come, there have been countless heroes who have crossed states and counties." What's the meaning?That is, since Dong Zhuo's rebellion, the princes from all walks of life divided up their territories and seized territory. Our Han Dynasty has reached an era where everyone cares about the emperor's life and death, and only cares about seizing territory for themselves. This is such a situation.In such a situation, what should we do?Clearly, we also have to grab territory.Because no matter what your political ideals, political ambitions, or political goals are, whether you really want to defend our current emperor, or to realize your own ambitions, no matter what your goals are, or what your ambitions are, in short There is a prerequisite, there must be a base.

In the question and answer of Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang, there is a lot of articles, and Zhuge Liang's answer to Liu Bei's question is very real.Many of us worship Zhuge Liang, but in my opinion, we have not worshiped the idea. The most worthy thing for us to learn from Zhuge Liang is his pragmatic spirit.Liu Bei is in such an identity and position, he must start with "the traitor steals his life, and the master is dusty", but Zhuge Liang, as a politician, should stop talking about these routines when two people are talking in secret in the secret room. I have to get some dry goods, what are dry goods?Let's get a piece too.

In the dialogue in Longzhong, Zhuge Liang gave Liu Bei a reassurance at the beginning, pointing out the key to Liu Bei's problem at that time, that is, Liu Bei must have a base of his own in order to realize his personal ideals.This shows Zhuge Liang's pragmatic spirit, because only when there is a base can we talk about restoring the Han Dynasty.But where should Liu Bei, who lives under the fence, use as his base?What capital does he have to gain his own base? The next question is, Liu Bei has always been in exile, living under the fence, and he can get a piece if he wants nothing?Zhuge Liang said yes, why?He said you can take a look at Cao Cao, he said:

"Compared to Yuan Shao, Cao Cao has a small name and few people. However, Cao Cao was able to conquer Shao. The weak became the strong. It is not only the weather, but also the scheming of people." If you think about the comparison between Cao Cao and Yuan Shao back then, Cao Cao's name was small but few, his reputation was not as great as Yuan Shao's, and his people were not as many as Yuan Shao's, but what happened in the end?Cao Cao killed Yuan Shao, why?One is called Tianshi, and the other is called Renmou. That is to say, Zhuge Liang told Liu Bei with such a fact: success depends on heaven, and planning depends on people.See if you can "contrive", if you can, then in your current situation, you are like Cao Cao at that time, Cao Cao is like Yuan Shao at that time, Cao Cao can defeat the strong with the weak, and you Liu Bei can also defeat the strong with the weak. Strength and weakness are neither absolute nor eternal. Strength and weakness are opposite sides of a contradiction, but what do we know about dialectics?That is, both contradictory and opposing sides can transform into each other under certain conditions. The weak can become strong, and the strong can also become weak. What are the conditions?It is not only the time of day, but also the plan of man.

After this principle is explained clearly, the problem will not be solved. Next, Zhuge Liang will actually plan for Liu Bei, how can he plan?Then I will give you a plan now, let's take a look at the situation in the world today.I believe that there was a map during the secret talks. Let's take a look at this map now. What is the situation in the north?In the north, the four prefectures of Jizhou, Qingzhou, Youzhou, and Bingzhou belonged to Yuan Shao, and the three prefectures of Yanzhou, Yuzhou, and Xuzhou belonged to Cao Cao. Now Cao Cao has destroyed Yuan Shao, and this area belongs to Cao Cao.So, can you make a move on Cao Cao's place?Zhuge Liang said no, why?He said:

"Today, Cao Cao has millions of people, and he uses the emperor to command the princes. This is sincere and cannot be competed with." This is too powerful, politically correct, with a banner that seemed righteous at the time, defending the emperor, and powerful, we cannot confront him head-on.Then look at the east side below, the Jiangdong area, how about this place?Zhuge Liang said: "Sun Quan has occupied Jiangdong for three generations. The country is in danger but the people are attached to it. The virtuous and capable are used for it. This can be used as a aid but not a plan."

This place has been managed by father and brother for three generations, and the political power is very stable. We can only form an alliance with him in this place, and we cannot play his ideas.So where can you get your ideas?There are two places, the first one is Jingzhou. Let’s take a look at the map to see how big Jingzhou is. Jingzhou was known as the Seven Counties at the time, and it was also known as the Eight Counties, because there was one county in it, and Zhangling County sometimes didn’t Time is abolished, but there is no problem in the seven counties.And let’s look at the map of this place. According to what Zhuge Liang said at the time, its north is Han River and Mian River, its south is Guangdong and Guangxi, its east is Jiangsu and Zhejiang, its west It is now Chongqing and Sichuan, places where military strategists must contend, and where heroes use their talents. This is a good place.What is better?The owner cannot guard it, and the owner of this territory cannot guard it, so Zhuge Liang said: "This is the reason why the general is in danger, does the general have any intention?" This place is what God is going to give you, do you want it?This is asking knowingly. At this time, Liu Bei has no tiles on the roof and no place to stand on. He has to ask for any place, let alone a good place like Jingzhou.So there is no need to answer, this question does not need to be answered. Let’s go on, there is another place, Yizhou. Just look at the map and you will know that Yizhou is also a big place. What did Yizhou include at that time?Including the current part of Sichuan, Chongqing, and southern Shaanxi, that is, Hanzhong, that is, Hanzhong, Bajun, Shujun, etc., were all within the scope of Yizhou at that time, especially the Hanzhong Plain and Chengdu Plain. Zhuge Liang said that it is "thousands of miles of fertile fields, the land of abundance".We now all know that the Chengdu Plain is the land of abundance, and it is surrounded by mountains. One of the plains is rich in fertile fields, evergreen in all seasons, rich in products, easy to defend and difficult to attack, and the high emperor Liu Bang made his fortune in the Hanzhong Plain. Well, so Zhuge Liang said this is also a good place.Who does this place belong to now?Shu belongs to Liu Zhang, and Hanzhong belongs to Zhang Lu. Neither of them are good leaders, so the people in these two places are called "the wise man Si Deming", and they all look forward to having a wise king to lead them. , that means this place is also prepared for you by God. It is conceivable that Liu Bei, who was very downcast at the time, must have been secretly happy after hearing Zhuge Liang's incisive and thorough analysis, thinking that his great cause of revitalizing the Han Dynasty was finally hopeful.But Liu Bei was the weakest of the warlords at that time. Needless to say, Cao Cao and Sun Quan were far stronger than him, and even Liu Biao, Liu Zhang, and Zhang Lu were not as powerful.So, what Zhuge Liang said is so tempting, doesn't Liu Bei have self-knowledge?Is it feasible for Zhuge Liang to guide Liu Bei?What can Liu Bei rely on to realize his dream of restoring the Han Dynasty? Well, since these two places are given to you by the heavens, don't take them for nothing. Of course he didn't say it clearly, and we understand what he means, so we will take them down.What happens after you win it?Zhuge Liang said: With your prestige, general, "faithfulness spreads all over the world";With this identity, this reputation, and this appeal, as long as you win these two places, you will have a solid base.Then, in this base area, we will improve internal politics on the one hand, and improve external relations on the other hand, and unite with Sun Quan, which means that you will have an independent kingdom, of course, this is not clearly stated.How about having this independent kingdom?Once the world changes, you send a general to go north from Jingzhou, via Wancheng, and attack Luoyang. The general himself starts from Yizhou, via Qinchuan, and attacks Xi'an. Do you welcome the general with dishes, rice, and meat?called: "Do the common people in the world dare not eat pots of pulp to welcome the general? If so, then the hegemony can be achieved, and the Han Dynasty can flourish." If so, then you have succeeded.These words made Liu Bei enlightened, awakened like a dream, and suddenly realized, oh, so the so-called hegemony or emperor's career was realized in this way. Oh, it's great, he said: "Good!" That's great.Of course, this ultimate goal has not been achieved. If it is achieved, then there will be a "Later Han" in our Chinese history, because you can't do anything with it, so you have to call it "Later Han". So why was this goal not achieved?Because Zhuge Liang made it very clear that there is a prerequisite for achieving this goal, which is called "there are changes in the world".Liu Bei didn't ask, Zhuge Liang didn't say, why?no need.Who is Liu Bei?Qianlong, who is Zhuge Liang?Wolong, two dragons are talking there, do you want to say it so clearly?Want to put it that bluntly?Are you going to say it so blatantly?No need, I understand.What if the world does not change?The world has not changed, so let's stay in Jingzhou and Yizhou, so two good places, there is no problem eating seven or eight meals.That is to say, the plan Zhuge Liang made for him is to advance and retreat, and to defend. The highest program: realize the emperor's career, become the emperor, and unify China; if it doesn't work: divide the world into three parts and achieve hegemony.This is such a good design, so Liu Bei is very happy.After this conversation, Zhuge Liang probably left with Liu Bei. When he arrived in Liu Bei's army, he often talked with Liu Bei.Fortunately, Guan Yu and Zhang Fei had a disagreement. Guan Yu and Zhang Fei said that we were originally three brothers. , and our elder brother seems to treat him like a mouse loves rice, he has a problem.So Liu Bei went to work and said that you should not have any objections. Having Kong Ming is like fish having water. It turns out that it is not mice who love rice, but fish who love water, so the two have no objections. The "Longzhong Pair" made by Zhuge Liang is still a blank check at the moment. It's not that Zhuge Liang is incapable, but that both Zhuge Liang and Liu Bei have taboos.Because the first step of the plan he designed was to win Jingzhou. Whose Jingzhou belongs to?Liu Biao, what is the relationship between Liu Biao and Liu Bei?Clan, family, what is the relationship between Zhuge Liang and Liu Biao?Liu Biao is Mrs. Zhuge Liang's uncle. No matter how bad Zhuge Liang is to make suggestions, he can't persuade Liu Bei to say that you have done Liu Biao. You can't say that. You can't say this, and Liu Bei can't do it. It is very clear: "And if the master can't keep it, it's almost heavenly, so he's a general." That is to say, Jingzhou can be taken, but it has to wait until its master can't keep it and sends it to the door by himself; so what if it can't be sent to the door?Wait, you can only wait.For Liu Bei, Jingzhou can only be taken by chance, not plundered. Zhuge Liang's "Longzhong Dui" pointed out a bright road for Liu Bei who was at the end of his life.At that time, a twenty-seven-year-old scholar living in a small mountain village could correctly assess the political forces of various factions and formulate a strategic policy in line with the times. The political situation, this is indeed commendable.However, some people think that Zhuge Liang's "Longzhong Opposition" is not more brilliant, and such a strategic analysis was also proposed at the time, so who has such foresight? It is correct that Liu Biao will lose Jingzhou in the end.And as early as seven years ago, that is, the fifth year of Jian'an, someone had foreseen this and made a very similar strategic plan for Sun Quan, which can be called the Soochow version or Sun Quan's version of "Longzhong Dui". Then this person Who is it?This is Lu Su. When Lu Su is mentioned, audience friends who are deeply affected may immediately think of such a person who is loyal and honest to the point of pedantry.Everyone knows that Liu Bei borrowed Jingzhou, and Lu Su begged for Jingzhou. As soon as Lu Su went to beg for Jingzhou, Liu Bei asked Zhuge Liang what to do, and what to do?Zhuge Liang said, will you cry?Liu Bei said yes.When Lu Su comes, you cry.As soon as Lu Su went to beg Jingzhou, Liu Bei cried, and Lu Su couldn't do anything about crying. He said, "Oh, if you have something to say about this matter, don't cry. Look at you crying like this. I have a napkin here."It seems to be such an image, but it is not. Lu Su is a very chivalrous and bold person.When Zhou Yu was the county magistrate, he used to borrow food from Lu Su. Lu Su seemed to be a big landlord, and his family was very rich. At that time, Lu Su had two grains in his family, which were round barns. You can put three thousand stone millets, and there are two pens in the house. Lu Su pointed to it and said, take one pen and go away. Moreover, Lu Su is also a very politically minded person. After he defected to Sun Quan, Sun Quan also had a secret private conversation with him, which was called "joining the couch and drinking together". What does it mean to couch and drink together?It is to put together a table for two people to drink face to face.While drinking, Sun Quan also asked a question. Sun Quan said: "The Han Dynasty is in danger, and the four directions are disturbing." A certain inherited the career of his father and brother, and he also wants to make a difference, "I want to have the merits of Huanwen", I also want to be Duke Huan of Qi and Duke Wen of Jin, to dominate one side and protect the emperor. It is the same as what Cao Cao said. Sun, come to help Sun, what can you do? Lu Su poured cold water on Sun Quan on the spot, saying that with Lu Su's humble opinion, General, you can't be Duke Huan of Qi or Duke Wen of Jin. Why?Think about it when the world was in chaos at the end of the Qin Dynasty, our Emperor Gao also wanted to be Duke Huan of Qi and Duke Wen of Jin, but he didn't, why?There is Xiang Yu, there is Xiang Yu, there is Xiang Yu, Xiang Yu creates chaos, and now Cao Cao is Xiang Yu in our current world, so you can't be it.However, if you can't be Duke Huan of Qi or Duke Wen of Jin, it doesn't mean that you have nothing to do as a general. If you can't be Duke Huan of Qi or Duke Wen of Jin, what should you be?Be the emperor.Then Lu Su spoke, and said two very important words: "The Han Dynasty cannot be revived, and Cao Cao cannot be eliminated." That is, the Han Dynasty can no longer be supported, so you should stop supporting it. If you are Duke Huan of Qi or Duke Wen of Jin, don't support it.Cao Cao can't get rid of it for a while, and his strength is too great, so what should he do?Lu Su said: "Standing on the east of the river to watch the world's provocations." That is to say, you should firmly hold on to your Jiangdong territory now, and wait for something to happen in the north.It is exactly the same as Zhuge Liang said that the world has changed. Lu Su said that once something happens in the north, you general will go west and destroy Huang Zu first—that is, Liu Biao’s generals, guarding Jiangxia County, which is the place in Wuhan now—first Crusade against Huangzu, then eliminate Liu Biao, then attack Yizhou, take down Liu Zhang's place, and rule the river with Cao Cao. At this time, you can establish the title of emperor to map the world. At this time, you will be called emperor, and then Look for an opportunity to go north to unify China. At the end of the Han Dynasty in troubled times, in addition to Zhuge Liang's "Longzhong Dui", there was also a Lu Su version of "Longzhong Dui". Lu Su in history was not as loyal and pedantic as described in the book. A statesman who can judge the situation and foresight.Lu Su's vision of the current situation and Zhuge Liang's "Longzhong Dui" can be said to have the same effect. They both regard Cao Cao as the number one enemy, and they both think that Cao Cao cannot be eliminated for a while. Then, is there any difference between these two versions of "Longzhong Pair"? Lu Su's "Longzhong Dui" is different from Zhuge Liang's "Longzhong Dui". Although they both advocate three points first and then unification, Lu Su's three points are different from Zhuge Liang's three points. The "three points" are Sun Quan, Liu Biao, and Cao Cao; Zhuge Liang's "three points" are Liu Bei, Sun Quan, and Cao Cao.Both have Sun Quan and Cao Cao, and the other is Liu Biao and Liu Bei.This is not surprising, because Lu Su's "Longzhong Dui" was proposed in the fifth year of Jian'an. At that time, Liu Bei hadn't figured out what he was doing and where he was.In the fifth year of Jian'an, we know it was the time of the Battle of Guandu, how could Lu Su think of counting Liu Bei as a share; and Zhuge Liang planned for Liu Bei, how could he count Liu Biao as a share.And after the Battle of Chibi, even before the Battle of Chibi, after Liu Biao's death, Lu Su quickly adjusted his policy, and immediately changed the "point" of the three-point world from Liu Biao to Liu Bei. The second difference is Zhuge Liang's slogan, or his ultimate goal is to achieve hegemony, prosper the Han Dynasty, and revive the Han Dynasty; while Lu Su clearly said that the Han Dynasty cannot be revived. Different, this is a different standpoint.Because Zhuge Liang wanted to assist Liu Bei to achieve his great cause, he had to use the banner of revitalizing the Han Dynasty, and I can also tell you in advance that this slogan later became a heavy political burden on Zhuge Liang. This is the second difference. The third difference is that Lu Su's strategic plan regards the three-point world as the premise, that is, Sun Quan, Liu Biao, and Cao Cao are already three points.What are the unifying steps?Eliminate Liu Biao first, then go west to take Yizhou, and rule the river with Cao Cao, that is to say, the "Three Kingdoms" will become the "Northern and Southern Dynasties".And what did Zhuge Liang do?Take Jingzhou first, then Yizhou, and occupy the area to the west. After Sun Quan and Cao Cao fight, and when they are almost finished, we will go north and east to unify China. " into "East and West Han", this is the third difference between the two versions of "Longzhong Dui". Then we have to ask a question, did Sun Quan adopt Lu Su's plan?No.why?Because when Lu Su said this, it was the fifth year of Jian'an. At this time, Sun Quan was only eighteen years old. He had just taken over from his elder brother Sun Ce. I don't have the patience either.So Sun Quan said in an official tone, alas, Sun did his best to assist the Han Dynasty, and the things you said cannot be considered.So don't look at his young age, eighteen years old, or a minor, according to the ancient rules, the ancients did not become an adult until they were 20 years old, and Sun Quan was still a minor, and he was already very sophisticated politically.But in the twelfth year of Jian'an, the situation was different. At this time, Sun Quan not only had the thieves' heart, but also the thieves' courage, and the thieves' power, so at this time, another person repeated the old saying, Say we beat Huang Zu, who is this person?Gan Ning.Gan Ning was originally Liu Biao and Huang Zu's subordinates, but neither Liu Biao nor Huang Zu valued him, so he defected to Sun Quan. Who introduced him?Zhou Yu and Lu Meng.After being introduced to Sun Quan, Sun Quan treated him very well and treated him like an old minister.So Gan Ning brought it up, what did he say?Say: "Han Zuo is declining day by day, Cao Cao is more arrogant, and finally becomes a usurper." Cao Cao is definitely going to usurp our Han Dynasty, and Jingzhou is a strategically important place. Liu Biao, the owner of Jingzhou, is not far away. He said that Liu Biao is not far-sighted. , he will definitely not be able to defend this place.So the general asked to start as soon as possible. He said four words, "Don't act later", that is, we must take Jingzhou first, and we must not fall behind Cao Cao.Then, after Gan Ning made this statement, there was a person beside him, Zhang Zhao. What did Zhang Zhao say?Hey, it can't be like this, our Soochow and Jiangdong Group are now trembling, walking on thin ice, we must be cautious, how can we go out and fight casually?Why did Zhang Zhao object, and how did Sun Quan decide and express his position?Please see the next episode - Jiangdong Foundation.