Chapter 49 Chapter 8 The Cold War Era 5

5 But what exactly has changed in this world?In general, the appearance of the international arena has been completely changed in three aspects due to the Cold War.First of all, the Cold War eliminated all kinds of conflicts and antagonisms before World War II in one fell swoop. The old grievances and hatreds were all overshadowed by the "only one and no semicolon" confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union, and some completely disappeared.Because the great cause of the empire era is no longer, and what follows is the scramble for territory in the colonial period.Some of the romantic affairs have dissipated, because except for the two real "powers", the other "big powers" who ruled the world in the past have now been reduced to second- and third-rate roles in international politics.The relationship between them is not only no longer autonomous, but also limited to regional significance. After 1947, the reason why France and Germany (West Germany) put aside their deep hatred and stopped seeing each other was not because France and Germany never turned their faces again—in fact, France always wanted to quarrel with Germany—but because the two countries Both belong to the American camp and serve together under the Washington tent.What's more, with the United States in charge of Western Europe, Germany will never be allowed to have any more derailed actions.But even so, traditionally, after a war, countries must have a knot in their hearts: the victor is afraid that the loser will revive, wishing that it will never stand up;But the situation after World War II was not like this.The speed at which the scruples of both sides of the victory and defeat disappeared is really astonishing.The fact that West Germany and Japan quickly returned to their pre-war greatness and re-armed—but not nuclear—would seldom mind in the West, as long as, in fact, both countries were at the beck and call of the United States.Even the Soviet Union and its subordinates, despite their extremely painful experience with Germany, threatened Germany's resurgence only on the surface, not out of genuine fear.The thorn in Moscow's eyes is not the German army, but the NATO missiles deployed on German soil.But now that the Cold War era has passed, the conflicts between major powers that have been hidden in the past are very likely to resurface.

Second, the Cold War also froze the international situation, and thus made many unresolved affairs or temporary arrangements in the international community appear temporarily stable.Germany is the most obvious example: for 46 years, Germany has always been in a state of division—even if it is not a legal state, at least it is a fait accompli for a long time—a total of four parts: one is after 1949 The western region where the Federal Republic was established; the second is the central region that became the German Democratic Republic in 1954; the remaining two are the eastern region beyond the Oder and Neisse rivers, where all Germans were expelled and the land was merged into Poland and the Soviet Union.The end of the Cold War, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and the reunification of the two German lands to the west; however, the former East Prussia, which was annexed by the Soviet Union, became isolated, facing the rest of Russia across the now independent Lithuania to the east.In this way, only Poland is left to face Germany, counting on it to abide by the border agreement of 1945, but there is really no certainty in this matter.The semblance of stability during the Cold War did not mean real peace; with the exception of Europe, the Cold War era did not mean that war had been forgotten.From 1948 to 1989, there were ups and downs, and it was rare in the world that there was a year of peace without major conflicts.Conflicts, large and small, however, were more or less under control, or quickly extinguished, because everyone was afraid of getting out of hand and triggering an open war between the superpowers—that is, nuclear war.Kuwait, an oil-rich country in the Persian Gulf that was originally a British protectorate (independent in 1961), has been reaffirmed by Iraq, which is next to it, over the years.However, this long-standing grievance was not put into action until the Persian Gulf ceased to be a flashpoint for superpower struggles, and broke out into a major war.Back before 1989, the Soviet Union, the Iraqi munitions factory, would have strongly opposed Baghdad to take any rash actions in this area.

The internal political situation of each country is naturally not as temporarily frozen as the international situation, but even if there are changes in general, it will not change its main direction of moving closer to one of the superpowers.The United States will never tolerate any communists or pro-communists in the governments of Italy, Chile, or Guatemala.In the same way, if a younger brother disobeyed the command, the Soviet Union would never give up the opportunity to send troops to teach a lesson. Just look at the experiences of Hungary and Czechoslovakia.It is true that the Soviet Union has far less tolerance than the United States for the pluralism and diversity of its friendly vassal regimes, but its ability to control these countries is also inferior to that of the United States.Even before 1970, what the big brother of the Soviet Union did to the three younger brothers of Yugoslavia, Albania, and China was completely out of control.As for the extremely personal styles of the leaders of Cuba and Romania, it has to back down by three points.As for the other third world countries, large and small, although the Soviet Union supplies weapons and shares their hatred of American imperialism, apart from this common interest, the Soviet Union has no real control power to speak of.Among the countries, few countries are even willing to give legal status to the Communist Party at home.However, under the logic of bipolar antagonism and anti-imperialism, coupled with the interaction of several factors such as power struggles, political forces, and bribery, the confrontation between the enemy and our camps has remained more or less stable.Except for China, no major country in the world has ever turned against the enemy if there were no internal revolutions.And revolution, according to the experience of the United States in the 1970s, is often not controlled by two superpowers.Although the alliance relationship with the United States has increasingly constrained the allies and made it difficult to implement policies (the German government suffered greatly from the Ostpolitick incident in 1969), they have never retreated , out of this increasingly thorny partnership.Therefore some forces are weak.The politically unstable and defenseless countries, thanks to the gift of the Cold War, survived inexplicably in the cracks.These small countries, placed in the dangerous environment of the international jungle where the weak and the strong prey on the strong, might have no chance of survival at all. The Red Sea and the Persian Gulf are full of such small and weak countries. The terrifying shadow of the atomic bomb mushroom cloud not only guarantees The survival of democratic and free countries in Western Europe incidentally also gave regimes such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait a chance to survive.The best time for a small country to exist is during the Cold War era—because after the Cold War, various problems that were temporarily resolved or shelved for a while immediately resurfaced, and there was no way to escape them.

Secondly, under years of constant arms races and conflicts, the world has stockpiled an unbelievably large amount of arms due to the Cold War. Over the past 40 years, the industrial powers have competed to strengthen their armaments to prevent a war that may break out at any time; over the past 40 years, the superpowers have been desperately distributing arms around the world to win over comrades and friends.What's more, the so-called "low intensity" (Low Intensity) wars have continued for 40 years, and have occasionally triggered several large-scale important wars.The flooding of arms around the world is a natural consequence.Therefore, the economic system oriented by the arms industry, or the country in which the defense industry has a strong influence, is naturally busy with the export of arms.Because there are not only considerable economic benefits, but at least it can make the government of the country feel at ease, proving that its astronomical military budget is not completely wasted, after all, it also has its economic value.The sudden rise of a wave of military governments around the world (see Chapter 12) has provided a rare and good market.In addition, since the oil price revolution, the black gold under the surface has suddenly brought unimaginable wealth to the Sudanese chiefs of the third world.So regardless of the socialist countries, or the declining capitalist countries, such as the United Kingdom, have invested in arms export.Because apart from that, they really don't have any products that are important enough to compete in the world market. The content of the "death deal" is not limited to heavy arms that only the government can afford. With the advent of the era of rampant guerrilla warfare and terrorist actions, the demand for portable light weapons has also greatly increased-these light weapons are light in weight and small in size. The lethality is not low.In the late 20th century, the underground activities of the underworld, which were active in the urban jungle, further provided a lucrative private market for arms products.In this environment, the Uzi submachine gun (Uzi) made in Israel, the Kalashnikov rifle (Kalashnikov) made in Russia, and the Simtex explosives (Semtex) made in the Czech Republic have all become household names. use the name.

As a result, in the marathon race to buy and produce arms, the fire of the Cold War continued.The parties supported by the superpowers continued their sporadic wars.Even when old conflicts are over, even when the original initiators of the war want to stop, the fighting continues on the ground.As a result, rebel forces from the National Union of Independence and Nationalities of Angola (UNITA) have remained on the battlefield against the country's government.Although South Africa and Cuba, the instigators, have already evacuated this unfortunate country.The United States and the United Nations have also denied the existence of guerrilla forces and instead recognized the legal status of each other.However, their supply of weapons is absolutely not in short supply.Taking Somalia as an example, its arms and weapons were supplied first by the Soviet Union (when the old Ethiopian emperor who was pro-American was still in power), and then by the United States (when the old Ethiopian emperor stepped down and was replaced by a pro-Moscow revolutionary regime).Entering the "post-Cold War era", Somalia has become a land of starvation and devastation, years of wars, and a chaos of anarchic and tribal conflicts.Food production is barren, and what is needed is what is lacking.Only guns and ammunition, mine detonators, and military transport equipment are in constant supply.Although the United States and the United Nations have mobilized a large number of peace aid, the delivery of food and peace is much more difficult than arms.In Afghanistan, the United States also gave a large number of hand-held Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and launchers to local anti-communist tribal guerrillas to resist the Soviet Union's air supremacy in the region.The U.S. calculation was indeed correct, and the move was indeed effective. In the end, the Russians withdrew from Afghanistan.However, although the US and Russian forces are gone, the local war remains, as if nothing has changed.The only change is that now that the confidants are gone, the Soviet aircraft is gone, and the tribesmen have started to resell the anti-aircraft missiles to make a fortune, because the demand for them in the international market is increasing.Seeing this situation, the United States felt very disturbed. In desperation, it could only offer a high price of 100,000 US dollars each, intending to buy back its own weapons, but this plan failed greatly (see "International Herald" [International Herald] Tribune], page 24, May 7, 1993; Repubblica, June 4, 1994).As the magician's apprentice in Goethe's writing lamented: "It is easier to ask the gods than to give them away."

The Cold War came to an abrupt end, and the masts that originally supported the world structure were suddenly pulled away, and even the internal political structures of countries were put in jeopardy—only the second change, many people are still unaware of.With the old beams gone, the world remains in a mess, because there is no new beam to replace it.The U.S. spokesperson has wishful thinking, thinking that now he is the only one who is alone, and his momentum will surely be stronger than in the past, and he will be able to establish a "new world order" on the ruins of the old bipolar order.This idea quickly proved impractical.It is impossible for the world to return to the way it was before the Cold War, because so many people and things have changed and so many faces have disappeared.All the landmarks on the surface of the earth have already collapsed; the old maps have all been abolished.Under the tremendous changes, politicians and economic experts who have always been accustomed to a certain worldview now find themselves unable to comprehend and grasp the essence of new problems and new things. The reason why the United States was able to see clearly in 1947 and observe the need for a drastic and rapid restoration of Western European economic power was that the sources of danger at that time - communism and Soviet power - were clearly defined and distinct.In comparison, the suddenness of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the communist world in Eastern Europe and its shocking effect on politics and economy far surpassed the precariousness of Western European countries.And as early as the end of the 1980s, this trend had already appeared-but the rich capitalist countries turned a blind eye to it, did not think that a global crisis was imminent, and did not know that everyone must work together to develop an emergency response.The reason is that the political significance of it is unclear, and it is not as easy to define as the opposition between capital and communism in the past.Hence the slow response of all countries, with the slight exception of West Germany - in fact, even the Germans completely misunderstood and underestimated the nature of the problem, as can be seen from the difficulties of the German Democratic Republic (East Germany) before the annexation of West Germany.

The impact of the end of the Cold War on the world is no small matter.Even if the other concomitant factors of the Cold War had not taken place—such as the great crisis of the world capitalist economic system and the dangers before the final collapse of the Soviet Empire—the thrills would still not be less than just in case.However, since the historian's task is only to describe the history that actually happened, there is no need to waste words and guesses on the assumptions of different plots.Facts have proved that the Cold War is only the end of an era, not the end of international conflicts and contradictions.An old era has passed, not only for the Eastern Bloc, but for the whole world.In this process, there are several historically critical moments that represent the end of an era, which can be clearly recognized by contemporary people: around 1990 is obviously such a turning point in the world.But although people can see that the past is over, what the future will look like, good or bad, good or bad, is full of confusion and no one can predict.

In the confusion, there seems to be only one thing that is irreversible: since the beginning of the Cold War, the world economy has undergone all kinds of changes, and the human society affected by them has undergone profound and dramatic changes that are unprecedented in history.As far as the impact is concerned, the world and people have been completely changed, and it is impossible to look back.The historical significance of various changes should occupy more and greater space in history books after a thousand years, and its significance must be far more significant and far-reaching than the Korean War, the Berlin Incident, the Cuban Crisis, and the cruise missile incidents.Now, let us take a look at the face of the human world reborn from the Cold War.