Chapter 42 3. "What is he going to do?"

The US general election and the actions of President-elect Eisenhower have always been under the control of Mao Zedong, Peng Dehuai, and Deng Hua.They all agreed that when the armistice negotiations were stranded and the U.S. military had not done much on the front line, the U.S. would most likely undertake a final military adventure if it wanted to break the deadlock.For military adventures, the United States has only two trump cards left: the atomic bomb and the large-scale landing on the side.Although some American military and political officials wanted to change the passive situation on the battlefield by using the atomic bomb from time to time, the atomic bomb would be opposed by people all over the world, and the allies of the United States also strongly opposed it. Therefore, the atomic bomb in their hands became a display.Only side left available after massive landing this last lot.

Eisenhower, who was a soldier and successfully organized the Normandy landing, became the new president of the United States, and Dulles, a hardliner, was appointed as the secretary of state of the new government, which aggravated the doubts of Mao Zedong, Peng Dehuai, and Deng Hua. In early November 1952, Peng Dehuai, vice chairman of the Military Commission, went to Liaodong to inspect coastal defense.During this period, he specially sent Chen Shiqu to inspect the situation in the Longyanpu area on the west coast of North Korea. On the 23rd, he called Yang Dezhi and He Jinnian to Deng Hua to put forward his opinions on the development trend of the Korean War and the volunteer army's defense against the enemy's landing and deployment from the flank.Peng Dehuai pointed out that the enemy suffered heavy losses in autumn, and the cold winter was approaching. The old and new US presidents are in the transition period, and the possibility of a large-scale attack this winter is less likely. The Korean War has been protracted for a long time. In the past, many times in the past, we used military pressure to force me to submit to Fan Qida's truce, but all failed. I recently attacked the front of the Five Sacred Mountains and suffered a serious blow from me. This is still a vain attempt, and the enemy will not give up because of this loss.We must prevent the landing from our flanks in Laichun, cooperate with the frontal attack, and according to the enemy's existing forces, draw two divisions of the US Army from North Korea and Japan, and a pseudo-division, relying on Baengnyeong Island and Jiao Island to land on the Mongjinpo Peninsula and attack eastward. Changyuan Shaliyuan, the possibility of threatening the flank of our army exists.

Peng Dehuai instructed the Volunteer Army to check the fortification situation on the west coast, "must not be careless." After receiving Mr. Peng's telegram, Zhisi immediately ordered Xihai to direct Deputy Commander Liang Xingchu and Tang Zian, commander of the 64th Army, to scout the terrain on the west coast and check the fortification situation. According to Peng Dehuai's instructions, the Operation Department of the Central Military Commission conducted a study on Eisenhower's North Korea policy. On November 24, Minister of Operations Zhang Zhen and Deputy Minister Wang Shangrong reported the research results:

The old and new presidents of the U.S. Empire will be handed over on January 20 next year. Before and during the handover, the two parties are shirking each other's responsibilities; and North Korea is in a severe winter and it is not conducive to fighting. .After Eisenhower came to power in January next year, he may adopt two methods to resolve the North Korean issue: one is to make some kind of compromise in the armistice negotiations to make the negotiations successful; the other is to take some kind of action against me in the military.Judging from many current situations, the enemy seems to be preparing for the latter possibility.It is also possible according to the current situation of enemy forces.If the enemy wants to carry out this kind of operation, it is estimated that it will be after the thaw in late March next year.

Zhang and Wang's reports predicted the possible landing sites of the "United Nations Army" and the degree of threat to us, and put forward specific suggestions for the deployment that our army should adopt accordingly. At the end of 1952, the Volunteer Army Headquarters also analyzed the future of the Korean War and the possible actions of the "United Nations Army". On December 4, Deng Huadai, the acting commander who returned to China to report on his duties, made a written report to Mao Zedong, and explained the work plan in detail when Mao Zedong met him alone at 10 pm on December 7.Deng Hua conducted a thorough analysis of the U.S. policy toward North Korea:

The Korean War is currently facing two situations: one is to stop, the other is to procrastinate and continue fighting, and there are two possibilities for fighting, small or large. Small fights are basically a stalemate. In this year's situation, the big fight means that the enemy will land behind us, and the war will be more intense. There are two possibilities for landing.One is the big landing, which is behind me, strategically. ...The current enemy's consideration is to fight small, maintain the current front, and gradually use Li's puppet army to take on more positions to reduce their own losses.Or a big fight, a big landing from the side to drive us to the west bank of the Yalu River, and a quick end to the Korean War. The former is a stable method, while the latter is more risky. The dream of landing in Incheon in 2011 has not been given up. It depends on the enemy's policy?The policies of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are the same, but the latter may be more blunt and aggressive in their approach. Wall Street uses Eisenhower to take office, which shows that American imperialism is more actively preparing for war. Dulles as Secretary of State also symbolizes American imperialism’s Far East policy. It will be more positive. Although the enemy's global focus will not change in Europe, it is conceivable that the proportion of Asia will increase. …The Republican Party wants to show off their hands on the stage, and those who want to be tough, such as MacArthur, have long wanted to do a big job, and those who directly command operations, such as Clark and Van Fleet, have requested additional troops, and they are also very interested in landing from the side. Because they took advantage of it and thought it was the best way to win and end the Korean War. ... Therefore, it is certain that the war will be delayed and the status quo will be maintained, and the possibility of landing exists. Because his ambition is not dead, he will come back sooner or later. This point must be clearly understood in thinking. ... When and where to climb big and small, it depends on the enemy's determination, how much troops he can draw, and his level of preparation. ... If only two or three divisions can be drawn, the possibility of landing in Tongchuan or Haizhou is high, and they can get positive cooperation and can only play a campaign role, and Tongchuan is more likely than Haizhou, because the people there The army's position is relatively prominent, and the enemy has already practiced it this autumn. If four or five divisions can be drawn out, it is possible to land at Wonsan or Zhennanpu, and Wonsan is more likely than Zhennanpu.Because he can still get the cooperation of Pingkang, of course, it is also possible to choose my weak points and land in Hamxing and Xingnan with more troops.If Xiao Deng, next spring is possible, if Da Deng, it may be later.It is also possible that Xiaodeng first and then Dadeng, Tongchuan first and then Wonsan, or Haizhou first and then Nanpu, the former may be larger than the latter.No matter Xiaodeng or Dadeng, they all need positive cooperation, and also need a certain amount of airborne troops to cooperate. Now North Korea can only draw two divisions at most, and it is difficult to draw troops from Japan and China. Even if it can draw a few divisions, It is also worth considering whether the problem can be solved.If Chiang Kai-shek’s troops are not used, the possibility of maintaining the front line next year and coordinating with the front is great, but it is also possible to foresee the enemy’s adventure, especially when the Republican soldiers come to power and want to do a big job, a large landing is also possible... Deng Hua reported According to the above-mentioned judgments, the Volunteer Army Party Committee’s work arrangement for 1953 is to consolidate the frontal positions, strengthen the east and west coasts and the deep fortifications, and the troops on the east and west coasts should be more fully prepared to resolutely crush the enemy’s attack on our side. Landing and airborne attacks.The frontal forces should not worry about the rear. On the basis of holding their positions, they should actively prepare for combat, and organize a tactical counterattack in the spring, summer, and autumn of 1953 by means of snacks, hard hits, and point-by-point attacks. The whole platoon, the whole company and strive for the whole camp to destroy the enemy.

Mao Zedong fully agreed with Deng Hua's analysis, and pointed out that we must prepare for the worst for the possible landing of the US military.He commented on the report: We should make sure that five to seven divisions of the enemy will make a massive landing on the line of the Yalu River in Hanchuan, and they will be airborne in our rear. The time should be prepared in the spring, or maybe earlier. We should greatly strengthen the bunkers and tunnels and deploy five corps On this line, there must be four experienced troops, delineate the defense area, and resolutely prevent the enemy from landing, and there must be no mistakes.

The second landing danger zone is the Tongchuan Wonsan Line.The third danger zone is the Zhennanpu Hanchuan Line. The enemy must not be allowed to land on the west coast, especially not on the line of the Yalu River in Hanchuan. When meeting Deng Hua, Mao Zedong emphasized that the Volunteer Army should start from the basic point of affirming the enemy's landing, affirming that the enemy will land from the west coast, and affirming that the enemy will land between the Qingchuan River and Hanchuan to determine our course of action; and pointed out that the time should be prepared in the spring , and possibly earlier. On the afternoon of December 8 and the evening of December 10, Mao Zedong hosted a meeting of the Secretariat of the Central Committee in the Yi Nian Hall to discuss the situation of the Korean War.Acting Chief of Staff Nie Rongzhen and Deng Hua attended the meeting.Gao Gang attended the second meeting.

Mao Zedong was worried. On December 9, Mao Zedong wrote to Deng Hua again emphasizing: "It should be estimated that the enemy has decided to land on the Hanchuan-Qingchuan river line, and is actively preparing. We must urgently prepare to confront the enemy and smash his landing plan." At this time, the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army received a report from the Soviet Army: "According to the officers of the U.S. Army stationed in Japan, the news recently spread that the U.S. military will launch a large-scale offensive in North Korea in February 1953." , ready to occupy all of North Korea and reach the Yalu River." The report also listed the U.S. headquarters in Japan's request for a map of North Korea's east and west coasts, the deployment of the "United Nations Army" in North Korea since mid-November, and Van Fleet's request for the United States to send four more The situation of five divisions coming to court.

On December 11, the General Staff sent the situation to Deng Hua, acting commander of the Volunteer Army, and Yang Dezhi, deputy commander, asking the Volunteer Army to "raise serious attention, step up preparations to attack the enemy and land behind us, and must complete the task.  … Pay special attention to Han Chuanjiang, Qingchuan River, and Yalu River." On December 16, a telegram drafted by Zhou Enlai and sent to Stalin in the name of Mao Zedong informed Stalin of the Chinese leaders' analysis of the Korean War situation.The Telegram states: The Korean War has come to a standstill due to the armistice negotiations, and the losses of the US military in North Korea have not yet reached the level that it must stop. It is estimated that it will tend to intensify in a certain period of time (assumed to be one year) in the future.Eisenhower was preparing for military action in North Korea when he came to power.Based on the estimation of military operations on the Korean battlefield alone, the possibility of the enemy attacking our relatively solid deep fortifications from the front is not as great as the possibility of landing operations on both sides of our rear.Various signs prove that the enemy is currently vigorously strengthening and expanding the Syngman Rhee puppet army. The enemy navy is constantly conducting exercises in the North Korean sea, and the enemy agents are also actively collecting intelligence on the east and west coasts of North Korea.Calculated from the strength of the enemy, the enemy's current strength in North Korea is nineteen divisions, four brigades and seven independent regiments.Among them, there were seven divisions of the U.S. Army, four brigades of the British and Turkish armies, twelve divisions and seven independent regiments of the Syngman Rhee Puppet Army.On the front line there were fourteen divisions, four brigades and five regiments.If the enemy conducts a landing operation on both sides of North Korea, at most they can draw four or five divisions from the rear of South Korea, and they need to draw four more American divisions from Japan and the United States. Only in this way can they organize a large landing campaign. Insufficient, we can only carry out tactical landing and containment warfare near the rear of our front.The tactical landing site may be Tongcheon on the east coast, Ongjin Peninsula and Mongjinpori Peninsula on the west coast.The strategic landing sites may be Wonsan and Hamhung on the east coast and Jinnampo, Sinanju area and Cheolsan peninsula on the west coast.The greatest threat to me is the strategic landing on the west coast, because my main line of transportation passes through this area.The time for the landing operation may be in the spring of next year, but it may also start earlier in February next year.In order to cooperate with this landing operation plan, the enemy may take diversion actions against the Chinese mainland, for example, bombing the airport in the Andong region of China, conniving with the Chiang Kai-shek bandit army in Taiwan to invade the coastal areas of China, and assisting the Chinese Li Mi bandit army in Burma to harass the Chinese border .But the key to the war still lies in North Korea. If I can stick to the east and west coasts of North Korea, make the enemy's landing plan fail, and cooperate with the tactical attack on the front front to inflict more and greater damage to the enemy, then the situation in the Korean War will be even better. Stable, and develop in a direction that is more beneficial to us.