Chapter 49 2001 WTO entry and exit

The fierce debates in China's stock market and the entrepreneurial scandals in Lantian and Zhongke will continue to occur one after another in the next few years, until the summer of 2004 when there will be a phased conclusion.In fact, since 2001, marked by the collapse of Luliang, the dealers in the capital market have been in a bitter battle.Tang Wanxin, chairman of China's "largest private enterprise" Delong Group, which collapsed three years later, later admitted, "After 2001, my daily job was to deal with crises." The business community also began to question the "capital management" that has been popular for many years. Ning Gaoning, President of China Resources Group, who was elected as the 2001 CCTV China Economic Person of the Year for a series of successful mergers and acquisitions, unexpectedly said in his award speech, "Chinese business circles have created many harmful words in the past, and the word 'capital operation' is one of them. Most. You can’t find the word ‘capital operation’ in the dictionary of all successful companies, especially in the West.” Now, let us return to the grand narrative of the times.The gifted British female novelist Virginia Woolf (1882-1941) once said a very mysterious sentence. She said: "In December 1910, or before and after, human nature changed." This year is regarded as the beginning of the era of modernist literature.In contemporary history, 2001 was a year in which "essential changes" took place.

In the years that followed, when historians began to describe the 21st century, they tended to use September 11, 2001, as the starting point.It was almost a day without warning.At 8:45 a.m. U.S. time, a Boeing 767 was hijacked shortly after leaving Boston's Logan International Airport and crashed into the North Tower of the World Trade Center, a landmark building in Manhattan, New York. Eighteen minutes later, the second plane crashed into The South Tower, once the "world's tallest building" of the World Trade Center collapsed in the thick fog. At 9:45, another plane was hijacked and crashed into a corner of the Pentagon. This series of attacks killed 3,646 people. The "9.11 Incident" plunged the United States into extreme panic, and at the same time caused unprecedented shock to the whole world.The terrorist organization "Al Qaeda" from Afghanistan and its leader Osama bin Laden claimed responsibility for the incident.A month later, the United States immediately launched the war in Afghanistan, and in 2005, the United States launched the war in Iraq again on the grounds of anti-terrorism.

"9.11" completely changed people, especially Americans' basic judgment on the world. "Newsweek" regards "9/11" as a sign of the end of an era of innocence. In the past 10 years, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the discoloration of Eastern European countries, people have emerged from the Iron Curtain of the "Cold War", and a new international order with global commercialism as the core and economic development as the main theme has begun to take shape .Every country is adapting to this new reality. Some countries that used to be proud of their ancient civilizations are now vying to be "emerging markets." The past superpower summits and even the United Nations General Assembly have given way to Davao, held every year in Switzerland. Sri Lanka World Economic Forum.It seems that the forces driving history are no longer war, ideology and power politics, but economy, capital and technology.However, the occurrence of "9.11" suddenly interrupted all of this. Bin Laden announced the birth of a new form of war in an extreme way-terrorist war. The terrorist organization became a non-state but had a major impact on international security. The power of influence.The global political landscape has fallen into chaos again, and the chaos is still unresolved.The World Bank said in its annual World Development Report, "After the ideological war has just come to an end, East and West are once again facing each other over religious differences, and this will have a far-reaching impact on the global economy."

If "9.11" changed America's attitude towards the world, then the Enron incident and the WorldCom scandal that also occurred in 2001 made people question the regulatory system of American companies. Enron is the world's largest energy company, ranked seventh in the 2000 "Fortune 500" ranking published by "Fortune" magazine, with annual sales of more than 100 billion US dollars.This company has always been the darling of Wall Street. It has been elected as "the most innovative company in the United States" for four consecutive years. Enron stock is a blue-chip stock strongly recommended by all securities rating agencies. rising trend.However, at the beginning of this year, it was found to be suspected of falsifying financial reports.Its executives have been quietly selling their stocks to cash out, and Arthur Andersen, one of the world's top five accounting firms, has also been deeply involved in the fraud.By August, the speculation was confirmed, and Enron's stock price plummeted. By December 2, Enron had to file for bankruptcy protection. Andersen was implicated and forced to give up all auditing business in the United States, and was eventually dismembered.

Almost at the same time as the Enron incident, there was the financial scandal of WorldCom Corporation MCI. The second largest long-distance telecommunications company in the United States was found to have deceived investors by fabricating operating income and exaggerating profits in the past two years.By July 2002, WorldCom, which was deeply involved in fraudulent accounts, filed for bankruptcy protection with a debt of 30 billion U.S. dollars, which became the largest corporate bankruptcy case in the history of the United States. This is America in 2001. The "9.11" incident, the scandals of Enron and WorldCom, and the lingering Nasdaq stock market crash made the diplomatic politics and domestic economy of the world's largest country suddenly become turbulent.At the same time, a completely different scene appeared in distant China.In this year's American business world, the only thing to be proud of is that Apple's Jobs launched the world-stunning iPod network music player, which soon became one of the most popular new products in the media after Sony's Walkman in Japan. Added $90 billion in wealth to the company's shareholders over the next six years.A couple of big, far-reaching things are going on here, too, but much more festively and brightly.

On July 13 of this year, at 22:00 Beijing time, the much-anticipated host city of the 2008 Olympic Games was finally announced at the 112th Plenary Session of the International Olympic Committee in Moscow.Beijing in China, Toronto in Canada, Paris in France and Istanbul in Turkey entered the final round.In the silence, Juan Antonio Samaranch, chairman of the Olympic Committee, announced the final city to be elected. He only said one word in a powerful voice: BEIJING!Thousands of miles away, the land of Huaxia suddenly boiled, and the sky was filled with fireworks.Beijing announced plans to invest 280 billion yuan in infrastructure and venue construction.The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts that the Olympic economy will increase China's GDP by 0.5% in the next few years. Until 2008, the Olympic Games has always been one of the important factors driving investment and psychological expectations for the continuous rise of China's macro economy.

On October 7, the Chinese men's football team beat Oman 1-0 at the Wulihe Stadium in Shenyang, making a historic breakthrough into the World Cup finals.It was another extremely joyous sleepless night. Football is "China's No. 1 sport." Men's football qualifying has realized the dream of "going out of Asia and going to the world" that Chinese people have been clamoring for for many years. It is considered a symbolic event of China's rise. one. November 10th is another historic moment.This afternoon, at the Fourth Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization held in Doha, the capital of Qatar, the participating countries reviewed and adopted the decision of China to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) through consensus.Shi Guangsheng, Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of China, signed the protocol on behalf of the Chinese government. On December 11, China officially became a member of the World Trade Organization. WTO Director-General Moore told Xinhua News Agency: "China's entry into the WTO is the most glorious moment in my life."

The success of the Olympic bid, the qualification of the men's football team, and the entry into the World Trade Organization, a series of great joyful events were all crowded into 2001, which made the Chinese feel a sense of "big rise" at the beginning of the new century, an unprecedented excitement, happiness and satisfaction feel.Because of this, the saying "2001 is the Year of China" spread like wildfire. Just before and after China's accession to the WTO, predicting China's future and direction became the hottest topic in the global economic circle.The Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Japan mentioned for the first time in a white paper that China has become the "factory of the world". In products such as color TVs, washing machines, refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, and motorcycles, "Made in China" has already dominated the world market share. number one.Economists further believe that Chinese companies will start their journey of global conquest just like Japan did in the 1980s.Related to this, the "China threat theory" is also quietly rising.

Of course, there are also voices that are completely different from the above-mentioned views.Some scholars predict that with the gradual opening of the market and the influx of multinational capital, the already crumbling state-owned economic system will be vulnerable, and those old and inactive state-owned enterprises will be driven out of the market soon, which will affect the Chinese economy macro stability and sustainable development.A Chinese-American lawyer named Zhang Jiadun also published the book "China is about to collapse", claiming that China's economic prosperity is false, and under the strong impact of China's entry into the WTO, China's current political and economic system can only last for 5 years at most. year.The investment bank Solomon Smith Barney predicted that 40 million people would be unemployed in the first five years after China's accession to the WTO, and the severe employment pressure would sooner or later crush the country.Arguments similar to this also believe that China's economic growth model characterized by high input and low output and a development model based on cheap labor and huge energy consumption are entering a dead end. Rapid growth will be unsustainable.

A few years later, the facts will prove that none of the above-mentioned prophecies have "self-fulfilled", and China's economic and business growth is still moving forward according to its own logic, regardless of those overly optimistic or pessimistic conjectures.Since Fairbank's death in 1991, there has been no second observer in the mainstream Western world who has an objective and sober understanding of China.Zhang Fen, editor-in-chief of the Chinese website of the British "Financial Times", wrote: "After the 1990s, one of the signs of China's economic vitality is that almost every few years, Chinese and foreign economists have to change their thinking and adopt new ideas. Using language or concepts to describe and analyze China’s new economic phenomena. The fate of China’s economy is slowly being reborn in the transformation of these frameworks and concepts, and it is increasingly speculative with the common language of international game rules, and it is gradually on the road.” Autumn , "The New York Times" interviewed John Kenneth Galbraith, author of "Uncertain Age" and former president of the American Economic Association, asking him to talk about the future of Sino-US relations. The 94-year-old Kashi has just returned from India, another rising eastern country. He said in awe, "Half of my knowledge there is wrong, and the other half is useless." Regarding China, he said, "Many of our predictions about China are just my own guesswork."

The impact of the WTO on China is a continuous and long process. In China, which undergoes gradual changes, no change has ever been produced overnight.In fact, the “retirement of the country and the advancement of the people” that began in 1998 was a major strategic decision to deal with this changing situation. The advance, retreat, and reorganization of state-owned capital groups were all formulated in accordance with the WTO market opening timetable.For another interest group - multinational corporations, China's accession to WTO also means a major adjustment of strategy.The changes it takes place on three levels are remarkable. One is that there has been a subtle change in the industry choices of multinational corporations, and they have begun to enter monopoly or quasi-monopoly fields from competitive fields.Professor Huang Yasheng from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology once discovered a very unique "Chinese special case". Generally speaking, when multinational companies enter developing countries, they tend to choose resource-based, government-related areas with large capital investment, such as energy, finance, and telecommunications. However, their strategies in China are completely different.In the early and mid-term of reform and opening up, the vast majority of multinational companies entered China in the field of perfect competition. The most successful companies were Coca-Cola, which produced beverages, Procter & Gamble, which produced shampoo, and Japanese companies in the home appliance industry.Many European and American economists are quite puzzled by this.Huang Yasheng’s explanation is: Multinational companies imagined the Chinese market from the perspective of the population at the beginning, while domestic companies were vulnerable; secondly, these foreigners did not know how to establish relationships with government officials in the planning system, nor Know how to gain benefits by influencing central policy. After more than ten years, the situation has undergone fundamental changes, especially after 2002, the "law" discovered by Huang Yasheng became invalid.Multinational companies that have been inseparable from Chinese emerging companies in the field of consumer goods—for example, in the field of home appliances, if the local companies do not make fatal mistakes, multinational brands are likely to be wiped out—began to turn to resource industries, and they have gained priority. investment cooperation rights.The most convincing case is the strategic change of General Electric. This large company that entered China in 1992 has been developing very poorly. The light bulbs it produces cannot compete with township enterprises. Qi also said nothing about this. In 2001, before retiring, when a reporter asked him about his views on the Chinese market, Welch said, "I have been running there for 10 years, and every time I go there, I laugh at myself that I knew it the last time I came. The place is so big and complicated. I don’t understand it, I really don’t understand it. That’s probably why I’m retiring—someone else should figure it out.” GE’s turnaround in China took place in In the hands of his successor Immelt, he shifted the focus of investment from civilian products to basic engineering with higher technical content. General Electric's industrial lighting, medical equipment, gas turbines, fans, hydroelectric power generation equipment, aircraft engines, industrial The investment in power transmission and other projects of large groups has achieved good returns in China, and most of these fields are forbidden areas for private capital. Second, the financial investment of multinational corporations has greatly increased. Before 2001, all the successful and well-known enterprises in China were industrial investment enterprises.As China's economy continues to grow, international financial capital known as "barbarians at the gate" is eager to try.However, due to the independence of China's exchange rate system, it is difficult for them to find opportunities to cut in. In 1998, Soros' Quantum Fund's sniper attack on Hong Kong proved to be a failed experiment.After China's accession to the WTO, the opening of the financial market has been put on the timetable, and major multinational financial institutions have significantly accelerated their business layout in China.Around 2001, HSBC, Citigroup, AIA, Standard Chartered and other banks successively moved their regional headquarters from Singapore or Hong Kong to Shanghai.Financial investment companies that had been secretly deployed before also began to surface.In October of this year, the newly-founded "Economic Observer" disclosed a piece of news: As early as six years ago, Morgan Stanley and China Construction Bank established "the only and best joint venture investment bank in China so far—— China International Capital Corporation (CICC)" and holds a 35% stake.Founded in 1995, CICC is China's first international financial institution providing investment banking services with a registered capital of US$100 million.Its shareholders and the proportion of shares held are: China Construction Bank, accounting for 42.5%; Morgan Stanley, accounting for 35%; China Economic Technology Investment Guarantee Corporation, accounting for 7.5%; Singapore Government Investment Corporation, accounting for 7.5%; Mingli Group, accounting for 7.5%. In the past few years, almost all the capital reorganizations of large state-owned monopoly enterprises have been related to CICC. It raised a total of US$19.08 billion in the international capital market for China Telecom, PetroChina, China Unicom, and China Mobile, and assisted China Telecom in the 93 Acquired mobile communication assets in four provinces of Jiangsu, Fujian, Henan and Hainan for US$100 million. As a joint lead underwriter, raised US$2 billion for China Telecom’s additional stock issuance, and issued US$5 billion for the State Power Corporation and China Three Gorges Project Development Corporation RMB corporate bonds.These businesses won CICC the honor of ranking first in the Asia-Pacific region's IPO business in 2000. In October 2001, China allowed foreign capital to intervene in the disposal of non-performing assets for the first time. At the first bidding meeting, Morgan Stanley exclusively obtained an asset package worth 10.8 billion yuan. These non-performing assets were distributed in 18 provinces and cities across the country, involving real estate There are 254 companies and factories in industries such as textiles, metallurgy, and medicine, most of which are state-owned enterprises.Obviously, these non-performing assets are the residual value generated by the strategy of "retire the country and advance the people". "Economic Observer" reporter wrote: "While Morgan Stanley shares the huge profits of Chinese companies' domestic and overseas financing, it is also envied and envied by countless peers...Why Morgan Stanley? Why 35%? According to Those who witnessed the whole process of the joint venture recalled that there are no legal restrictions on the access of China's capital market. It is more sensitive and cautious. Maybe the joint venture party is working harder and more active. People who have been here can’t say that they are ugly.” Third, the trend of sole proprietorship of multinational enterprises is becoming more and more obvious.In the past many years, foreign-funded factories have to have a joint venture partner in China. For example, the canning factories of Coca-Cola and Pepsi must have joint ventures with state-owned grain and oil companies. chemical plant.Now that this restriction has been gradually lifted, some multinational companies that have established joint ventures think that they have a stable foothold, so they use various methods to force out Chinese investors.This winter, Japan's Matsushita confirmed to the media that "the 50 Panasonic joint ventures established in China will all seek sole proprietorship." The US Motorola, which produces mobile phones, also made such a decision. In September, Motorola elected its global board of directors in Beijing for the first time. Its investment in China accounted for 9% of its total investment, while its return reached 17% of its total profit.The board of directors decided to increase the investment in China to US$10 billion in the next five years. At the same time, the directors determined that "a sole proprietorship is a natural choice for a joint venture after China's accession to the WTO." At that time, the company's largest joint venture in China was Eastern Communications in Zhejiang, The US proposed to Shi Jixing, the Chinese chairman, that either the Chinese side sell the shares, or the US side withdraw from the joint venture.Shi Jixing chose the second option, and Motorola immediately withdrew and stopped all technical support. Pepsi-Cola is more resolute in its sole proprietorship actions and does not hesitate to "fight with the Chinese side".Pepsi had established 15 joint venture canning plants in China at that time. In September of this year, Pepsi (China) Investment Co., Ltd. established a wholly-owned company in Shandong and announced that Qingdao would be designated as its sphere of influence. Pepsi had already established in Shandong. For the joint venture factory, two PepsiCo companies launched a price war against the Qingdao market, which made the outside world confused for a while.Pepsi also tried to force out its Chinese partner in Chengdu, Sichuan. When the negotiations failed, the US announced a substantial increase in the price of the concentrate and did not approve Sichuan Pepsi to produce more brands of beverages.The brutality of the United States has aroused collective resistance and boycott of the Chinese joint venture canning factory. In March 2002, the US announced the dismissal of Chen Qiufang, the leader of the "Boycott Alliance" and the Chinese general manager of Shanghai PepsiCo. In July, 14 of the 15 bottling plants held a press conference in Chengdu to jointly accuse PepsiCo.One month later, PepsiCo of the United States filed a request to the Arbitration Court of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce in Sweden to terminate the cooperation with the Chinese partner in Chengdu on the grounds that the audit was not enough. This case is called "the first arbitration case of China's accession to WTO".The Swedish court finally ruled to terminate the trademark license contract and the concentrate supply agreement based on the "failure to cooperate with the inspection" and "cross-regional sales" that did not constitute a fundamental breach of contract, and Pepsi won a complete victory.Professor Liang Huixing, the main drafter of my country's "Contract Law", believes that the essence of the "Pepsi Arbitration Disturbance" is that multinational capital took advantage of the vacuum in Chinese law and management to accelerate predatory expansion when China joined the WTO.Another follow-up detail worth recording about this turmoil is that, five years later, in April 2006, Wang Changchang, a member of the China International Trade Arbitration Commission who had participated in the case and argued for arbitration in a Swedish court, was arrested on suspicion of financial problems.Xinhua News Agency determined in the report that "Wang Changchang privately divided state-owned property and was suspected of accepting bribes. His role in the Pepsi arbitration turmoil has been questioned." PepsiCo China "does not comment" on this.The joint venture model between Coca-Cola and PepsiCo in China is worth studying.Since Coca-Cola took the lead in entering China, foreign investment in carbonated beverages was directly approved by the central government. The number of bottling plants to be established, where to set up factories, and the supply price of concentrates were all determined by the government. Around 1993, the Light Industry Federation also signed a memorandum of understanding on the joint development of beverages with Coca-Cola and Pepsi respectively, requiring "Liangle" to transform the original domestic brand beverage production enterprises while establishing a filling plant. The joint venture established by "Liangle" must produce at least 30% of domestic brand beverages.This joint venture model has led to many contradictions between China and foreign countries. After 2001, the carbonated beverage market was liberalized, and "Two Les" successively implemented resolute sole proprietorship behaviors. While transnational capital continues to infiltrate and state-owned capital reorganizes vigorously, the "third force" private capital looks like a bystander outside the chess game.In the 30-year history of Chinese enterprises, the game between capitals of different natures has always been the main factor that troubles and promotes the ups and downs of China's economy.With China's accession to the WTO, the game pattern of the three major capital groups has undergone fundamental changes. The two powerful capitals have reached a new consensus on the distribution of interests and restructuring. The private capital that has achieved great success in many competitive markets is increasingly marginalized.Only a very few achieve token success.This year, at least three people have made breakthroughs in fields that have never been open to private capital. The first is Liu Yonghao, the youngest of the famous Sichuan Liu family brothers. In May, Liu Yonghao announced that he held a 7.98% stake in Minsheng Bank and became the largest shareholder.Because of the rich gains in the financial field, the Liu brothers returned to the "richest man" throne on the "Forbes" China Rich List at the end of the year. Minsheng Bank was founded in 1996, when the reform atmosphere was unprecedentedly strong.At the initiative of Jing Shuping, then chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and a veteran financial expert, the State Council approved the establishment of the first national joint-stock commercial bank - Minsheng Bank.Jing Shuping served as the chairman, and the sponsoring shareholders included several well-known private entrepreneurs who joined the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. Among them, Liu Yonghao, who served as the vice chairman, contributed 8.65 million yuan to become the first batch of shareholders.In this way, in the financial field monopolized by state-owned banks, Minsheng Bank was born with the backing of the semi-official All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. Although it is weak, it is the only experimental commercial bank with clear property rights.In the next few years, the macro situation was turbulent, and the profitability of Minsheng Bank fluctuated considerably, and shareholders entered and exited frequently.The far-sighted Liu Yonghao persevered in purchasing shares of Minsheng Bank, and his shareholding ratio quietly increased. In November 2000, Minsheng Bank was approved to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Its unique identity attracted the attention of the capital market, and the frozen funds for purchasing new shares exceeded 400 billion yuan, setting a national record at that time. The Liu brothers started their business by raising quails and got rich by producing fodder, and now they entered the financial field due to special opportunities, which naturally aroused people's endless envy and speculation.Like Liu Yonghao, Zhang Hongwei of Oriental Group and Lu Zhiqiang of Oceanwide Group are also vice-chairmen (or members of the Standing Committee) of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce.In the "Forbes" China Rich List in 2001, Liu Yonghao and his family ranked first, while Zhang and Lu ranked 24th and 36th respectively. If it is said that Liu Yonghao and others got into the monopoly by chance because of "reform demonstration", then Wu Ying and his PHS benefited from the civil war among state-owned monopoly enterprises.Also in the "Forbes" rich list this year, Wu Ying ranked 19th. After the mid-1990s, with the popularization of mobile phones, the mobile communication industry flourished unprecedentedly, and the two major mobile service providers that control this market - China Mobile and China Unicom, they made a lot of money. Relatively speaking, in the past China Telecom, the industry leader in China, cannot get a share of the pie because it can only engage in fixed-line telephone business.At such a time, Wu Ying, a Chinese student who had worked in the famous Bell Laboratories in the United States, saw a business opportunity.He introduced a PHS (mobile phone) wireless technology invented by the Japanese into China.This technology can use the existing fixed telephone network to provide wireless communication services in a wireless access manner.Its biggest weakness is that the signal is very poor, and sometimes it is not even heard well in the house, so in Japan, where it was invented, this is a marginal technology that was abandoned.But in China, it has become China Telecom's "life-saving straw", because with this technology, it can enter the mobile telecommunications market in a curve, and the high call service fees of the two major mobile service providers undoubtedly provide China Telecom's entry. Huge benefit space. The UT Starcom company founded by Wu Ying became the equipment supplier of the PHS project. He named this mobile phone "Little Smart". In December 1997, the first "Little Smart" wireless local telephone pilot was opened in Yuhang City, Zhejiang Province.Local consumers were told that the PHS call fee is 0.2 yuan for 3 minutes, while the GSM mobile phone of China Mobile or China Unicom is 0.5 yuan per minute, and the price difference is 7.5 times. In addition, PHS does not charge for incoming calls. The price difference between PHS and GSM is about 10 times.In just three months, the number of PHS users in Yuhang has surpassed that of China Mobile and China Unicom combined.PHS soon became popular throughout Zhejiang, and was quickly regarded by China Telecom as the "only magic weapon" for subsidizing mobile services. In this way, a fringe technology accidentally detonated a telecommunications war among monopolies in China.China Telecom promotes PHS in hundreds of cities across the country at the same time, while mobile service providers in various places snipe at the entry of PHS, and at the same time urgently report to the Ministry of Information Industry.The latter was in a dilemma. At one moment, he announced that "PHS is a backward technology, and its development should be restricted nationwide", and at the same time, he declared that "After investigation, PHS is a supplement and extension of fixed-line telephones, and China Telecom is conditionally allowed to engage in this business." ".The most sensational news occurred in Lanzhou City, Gansu Province in 2000. Lanzhou Telecom gave PHS an office number with the prefix "6", but China Mobile in Lanzhou did not recognize this "number not approved by the Ministry of Information Industry". , denying it access to the mobile network.Lanzhou Telecom, which has always been bullish, simply cut off the connection between the entire mobile network and the telecommunications fixed network, making hundreds of thousands of users unable to contact their mobile phones and fixed lines within dozens of hours, thus causing a major accident that made people laugh and cry.By 2001, except for a very small number of big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, PHS services had been opened across the board, with more than 60 million users. China Telecom's strong promotion of PHS has naturally allowed the equipment supplier UTStarcom to achieve amazing growth. On March 3, 2000, UT Starcom was listed in the United States.In the following 17 consecutive quarters, the company has drawn a perfect growth curve, and its performance has exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Even during the Nasdaq stock market crash, its stock price has never been lower than 20 US dollars. The best performing Chinese stocks. In 2002, the market value of UT Starcom was as high as 26 billion yuan.Wu Ying, who has a Guevara-style beard, is regarded as a legendary CEO. He was named "China's Top Ten New Talents" and "China's Top Ten Most Popular Entrepreneurs in 2001". He was selected as one of the "50 Asian Stars" who rescued the Asian financial crisis. The decline of UT Starcom also stems from the changes in the monopoly industry. In 2005, China Telecom decided to reduce its investment in PHS and reserve funds for future 3G network construction. UTStarcom's revenue dropped by 30% that year.Wu Ying made the decision to transform into IPTV (Interactive Television) business, and IPTV is related to the division of interests between two major monopoly interest groups—telecom and radio and television. Wu Ying obviously wants to "copy" the miracle of PHS again by walking around. It's a pity he didn't succeed this time. In 2005, UT Starcom reported a loss and its market value shrank by 90%, and was warned by Nasdaq to "delist". On June 1, 2007, Wu Ying resigned sadly. The third person worth recording is Li Shufu, a grassroots entrepreneur who accidentally obtained the first private enterprise car manufacturing license. On November 9 of this year, the State Economic and Trade Commission released the sixth batch of "Vehicle Manufacturers and Product Announcements", and a strange model named "Geely JL6360" was on the list.In the history of automobiles, this is an "unprecedented" event, because the emergence of Geely means that the first time private capital has officially approved the government to manufacture automobiles.It was interpreted as a major industry opening news after China's accession to the WTO.However, it has been 23 years since the day when multinational capital was allowed to enter China's auto industry. The owner of Geely Automobile is 38-year-old Li Shufu from Taizhou, Zhejiang Province. He has three "congenital deficiencies" in building automobiles: only about 100 million yuan of his own funds; no experience and accumulation in the automobile industry; and no government support.But it was such a reckless man outside the door who finally pried open the tightly closed iron door. In 1982, Li Shufu, who graduated from high school, asked his father for 120 yuan to buy a camera, and took pictures of passers-by in the streets and alleys of Taizhou to make money.This is a person with a gambler gene in his blood.He once recalled, "When I was young, I gambled money. For example, if I won 1 yuan, I put it all down, and it became 4 yuan. The money, just take back 50 cents, he won much less money than me. But I may lose all of it the last time I play this way, and there will be no cents left.” As he described, the later 20-somethings During the past year, Li Shufu "put all the money he earned" every time, and bet on a certain industry.He made some money by taking pictures, and opened a photo studio a year later, and made some more money, and set up a refrigerator parts factory after a year, and made some money again, and two years later, he simply opened it opened a refrigerator factory called Arctic Flower.The refrigerator factory was still very profitable, and he soon became a well-known local multimillionaire.But at this time, the macro-control in 1989 took place, the political atmosphere was unprecedentedly tense, the private economy encountered a cold snap, and some owners turned over their factories to the "collective" one after another.When Li Shufu got nervous, he also handed over the workshop, inventory, land, and the passbook of the factory. He took tens of millions of yuan in cash and went to Shenzhen University for "advanced education". After avoiding the limelight for a while, Li Shufu returned to Taizhou and continued to "let go". In 1993, he decided to build motorcycles.At that time, the coastal villages had become rich, and motorcycles not only became a symbol of young people chasing fashion, but also the best tool for short-distance transportation of goods.Li Shufu has no experience in motorcycles at all, but he is a genius at avoiding red lights.If you don’t have the skills, you just dig people everywhere. If you don’t have blueprints, you just dismantle other people’s cars and draw from the gourd.The most important thing is that there is no license. He went to the motorcycle management office of the Beijing Ministry of Machinery and asked in a daze, "We want to produce motorcycles. Did you approve it here?" Industrial policy?" Li Shufu replied, "It was published in the newspaper." The official smiled, "It's fine if you see it, why are you here?" Li Shufu scratched his scalp and didn't know how to answer.The first "running department" hit a wall, "running the department forward": a special term in the Chinese business circle, referring to companies going to various ministries and commissions in Beijing to obtain approvals, and the word "advanced" has a pun.However, Li Shufu was not troubled. He quickly found a state-owned motorcycle factory on the verge of bankruptcy and spent money to "buy" a license.Li Shufu's success on motorcycles stems from his "imitation talent".At that time, Taiwan's Guangyang Company had just produced a scooter, which was very popular with female riders. Li Shufu immediately introduced it and became the first manufacturer in mainland China to produce this motorcycle. The success of Geely motorcycles made Li Shufu a real entrepreneur. In 1997, this restless Taizhou native had a whim and announced that he would build a car.At that time, China's auto industry can be described in eight words, "Extreme profits can be expected, and the layout has been completed."From a macro point of view, after the Asian financial turmoil, the central government tried to activate the domestic demand market, and automobiles and real estate became new consumption hotspots.Since this year, the ownership of family cars has doubled year after year.Many experts have predicted that the era of family cars in China has arrived.Related to this, the phenomenon of huge profits in the auto industry has become apparent.Someone compares the prices of cars in China and the United States. The price of a Volkswagen Beetle with the same performance in China is 3.36 times that of the United States, that of Buick is 2.36 times, and that of Toyota Corolla is 2.80 times. The astonishing huge profits undoubtedly mean that the auto industry has huge room for growth.As far as the current situation of the industry is concerned, it is an inexplicably emotional scene. When the country was opened in 1978, multinational automobile companies were allowed to set foot in the Chinese automobile manufacturing industry, such as Volkswagen, General Motors, Peugeot, Toyota, Mitsubishi and others. Nissan and others have selected locations to set up factories one after another, and the original Hongqi and Shanghai brands of China's national automobile industry have been skillfully eliminated one after another.Li Anding, a reporter from Xinhua News Agency and a well-known auto observer, once described the domestic auto industry as "ridden with all kinds of diseases": scattered investment, poor development capabilities, high production costs, and a nearly primitive sales and service system.He asserted that if the auto industry cannot complete structural adjustment and reorganization through the raising of huge funds, it is by no means alarmist that the entire army will be wiped out.In such a big environment, Li Shufu broke in hastily, and no one applauded. At that time, Li Shufu had about 100 million yuan in funds. He boldly declared that he had "invested 500 million yuan." However, even the "big figure" of 500 million yuan was ridiculous to the automotive industry.Another well-known private entrepreneur in the same province as Li Shufu, Lu Guanqiu of Wanxiang Group, also had a dream of building cars at that time. He had been in the auto parts industry for 30 years, and he always wanted to break through the industrial links and build Chinese cars.In his home in Xiaoshan, he hung a car landscape painting on the eye-catching wall all the year round, looking at it every day and thinking about it every night.当听说名不见经传的台州李书福要造汽车时，他大吃一惊，然后很老实地说，“造车一要政府许可支持，二要上百亿元的资金，万向还没有准备好。”李书福也没有准备好，不过，他觉得造汽车很容易。在一次采访中，他轻描淡写地说，“汽车不就是摩托车再加两个轮子吗？”事实上，他也正是用造摩托车的方式来造汽车。跟以往一样，他先选中了一个仿制的对象，那就是当时国内销售最好的低价轿车天津夏利，设计师是厂里几个手艺高超的钣金工，第一批轿车是用手工一榔头一榔头地敲打出来的，它的正式图纸在投入批量生产的几年后才被专业人员补齐。 民营企业造车最大的障碍还是政府许可，李书福依然寻求“变通”。让人难以置信的是，他的汽车许可证来自四川德阳的一家监狱。该监狱下属有一家汽车厂，李书福注资取得了70％的股权，然后取了一个跟全球最大飞机制造商美国波音完全类似的厂名“四川波音汽车制造有限公司”。 厂名叫波音，车型像夏利，车价仅如一辆高档丰田摩托车，1998年8月8日，李书福造出的第一款汽车“吉利豪情”正式下线。他摆宴100桌，向全国官员及经销商发出700张请柬，结果只来了一个浙江省的副省长，90多桌菜肴受到冷落。 李书福长相敦厚，塌鼻细眼，十足的草根气质。在一开始，他就被媒体渲染成了一个“符号”，一个堂吉柯德似的、随时有可能被强大体制吞没的悲情英雄，而李书福本人似乎也十分“配合”这样的形象塑造，他是一个天生的本色演员。有一年，他参加一个颁奖晚会，电视台直播，轮到获奖人李书福上台了，他走路的动作明显放慢，好像是电影里的慢动作。主持人很好奇，问他为什么会这样，他一脸茫然地说，是他们（导演）让我走得慢一点的。此言一出，满场莞尔。李书福的草根与看似木讷为他赢得了国内传媒的同情与好感。然而，在汽车界他却展现出赌性十足与杀气冲天的性情。吉利豪情一面市，就以超低的价格掀起了一场血风腥雨。当时中国的轿车定价大多在10万元以上，最便宜的天津夏利售价近9万元，而“豪情”的价格为5.8万元。有媒体设问，“消费者都在问，5.8万元的轿车能开吗？”李书福听到这个问题很高兴，他反问记者，“那就是说，如果能开，消费者就都肯买吗？”吉利的入局让汽车业界头痛不已。在之前，各厂家的日子非常红火，轿车价格坚挺而上扬。“豪情”一出现，像一只土制的秤砣把上扬的涨价箭头一把拉下。李书福的竞争战略就只有很简单的一条：“做中国最便宜的轿车”。为了应战，天津夏利被迫降价，它每降一次，吉利必应声下降，杀到最后，夏利开出3.18万元的“跳水价”，李书福马上挂牌2.99万元。此价一出，舆论顿时哗然，业界一片寂静。 李书福在市场上如蛟龙翻江，在政府面前却战战兢兢。他的那张从监狱工厂转来的许可证不但来路可疑，而且按严格规定只能生产卡车和两厢汽车。吉利要做大，一定要一个合法正式的“准生证”，这成为李书福必须解决的头等大事。根据国家的汽车产业政策，所有的资源及政策都将向一汽、二汽及上汽三大国有汽车集团集中，吉利获合法准生的概率非常渺茫。1999年，主管工业的国务院副总理曾培炎到台州调研，专程去吉利视察。李书福当面请命：“请允许民营企业大胆尝试，允许民营企业家做轿车梦。”讲到激越处，李书福说，“如果失败的话，请给我一次失败的机会吧。”斯言慷慨，闻者无不动容。 一直到2001年的春夏之交，李书福的“求败呼声”还是没有得到回应。7月份，国家经贸委公布最新一期《车辆生产企业及产品公告》，吉利上报的两款新车还是被刷了下来。根据中国与WTO达成的入世协议，汽车制造业将有6年的保护期，在这期间，进口关税逐级下降，进口配额将彻底取消，最后到2006年7月1日，进口关税将降到整车为25％，零部件为10％的目标税率。6年中，所有国有及跨国汽车公司必将完成重大的投资及重组战略，如果吉利连“准生证”都拿不到，就更谈不上参与竞争了。《中国企业家》在一篇题为《生死李书福》的封面报道中描写道，“对那次《公告》，李书福寄托了太多太多的期望。但是，当别人在《公告》刊出当天告诉他，吉利被排除在目录之外时，他甚至没有勇气自己拿起那张刊登《公告》的报纸，找寻吉利的踪影……9月，一个宁静的夜晚，走在北京亚运村的街道上，李书福仰望只有半钩残月的夜空，吁叹一声。” 就在这篇报道刊登的一个多月后，11月9日，有关部门突然增发一批汽车许可公告，“吉利JL6360”竟赫然在榜。第二天，中国在多哈会议上被正式批准加入世界贸易组织。这两条新闻几乎同时出现在各大媒体上，“中国入世”与“李书福入局”的巧合，自然引起国内外舆论的一番热烈解读。每个人都喜欢这样的联想，从政府、传媒、专家、普通公众到李书福。 刘永好、吴鹰及李书福的“另类式成功”各有因缘际会，也生动展现出在利益重新调整的混沌格局中，市场与垄断之间犬齿交错的渗透、妥协与博弈。那些意外闯进垄断或半垄断领域的企业家们从此开始了一段获利颇丰却前途莫测的商业旅途，他们的成功带有很多机会主义的色彩，因而也充满了不确定性。 总体而言，2001年是令人亢奋的。对于绝大多数中国人来说，WTO似乎是一道漂亮的彩虹门，当那一天到来的时候，举国上下竟有大松了一口气的意味。事实上，并不是所有的人都确切地知道WTO到底是怎么一回事，即便是最优秀的企业家们也没有看清那些正在发生的剧烈衍变。其中最让人大跌眼镜的是，已经成为全国房地产业领军人物的万科集团王石信誓旦旦地预言，加入WTO之后，房价将下跌15％。后来发生的事实让他的这个预言成了一个笑谈。 在这个剑舞笙歌的年份，仍然有低迷的行业存在，那就是受纳斯达克股灾和美国经济影响的互联网产业。那些意气风发的IT英雄们正遭遇他们职业生涯中的第一道大寒流。 看上去麻烦最大的是网易的丁磊。8月31日，网易宣布对上年的财务报表进行修正，净亏损从之前公布的1730万美元上升到2040万美元。4天后，纳斯达克以财务报表存在疑点为理由宣布网易股票被停止交易，网易也随即宣布丁磊辞去公司董事长和CEO的职务，改任谁也没有听说过的“首席架构设计师（CTO）”。与此同时，有传言认为网易很可能因为这个“丑闻”被摘牌，而一家香港网络公司则在接受道琼斯新闻专线采访时表示，它将收购陷入困境的网易。丁磊后来回忆说，“其实那段时间很迷茫，连卖掉网易的心都有过。不卖的原因也不是说我不卖，而是我们财务审计出了问题，人家不肯买了。”他向好朋友、广东步步高集团的段永平请教出售网易的问题，段永平反问他，“你卖了公司干吗？”丁磊说，“我卖了公司有钱再开一家公司。”段永平笑了，“你现在不就在做一家公司，为什么不做好呢？”听了这话以后，丁磊如大梦初醒。决心重新来过的丁磊尝试让网易转型，他宣布投资开发网络游戏《大话西游》，同时与移动电信商大力开发短信业务。丁磊的冒险证明他是中国互联网产业中直觉最好的企业家之一，这种人能够在第一时间发现一个行业的钱到底“藏”在哪里。网易在2001年又亏掉了2亿元，不过，能快速带来现金流的网络游戏和短信业务最终还是拯救了这个30岁的年轻人。 阿里巴巴的马云没有像丁磊那样风光过，所以他的焦虑会少一点，不过，阿里巴巴在那一年也是焦头烂额。在此前，美国著名投行高盛和由传奇的日本投资人孙正义领导的软银公司已经先后对阿里巴巴投资2500万美元，腰缠万金的马云把总部迁到了上海，还同时在美国、英国、日本和香港分设子公司，他提出要设立一个遍及全球的公司架构，把“红旗插遍全世界”。他还在2000年9月在杭州举办了中国互联网产业的第一次行业峰会“西湖论剑”。当时的互联网界英豪辈出，谁也不服气谁，从来没有人能够把他们招在一起开个会。马云知道靠自己的声望遍发英雄帖没有几个人会来，于是，他巧妙地请来武侠小说大师金庸亲自坐坛。王峻涛、王志东和丁磊都是十足痴迷的金庸“粉丝”，竟纷纷应允与会，这很是让东道主马云过了一把“盟主”瘾。 可是，随着互联网寒流的袭来，马云的全球化布局显得大而不当，电子商务的盈利模式没有找到，烧掉的钱却越来越多。在这样的时刻，马云好像突然醒了过来，他迅速做出回归中国和回归浙江的战略，相继关闭境外公司，遣散外籍员工，把总部又迁回了家乡杭州。当时，很多人劝他像丁磊一样转型。当时阿里巴巴的网商用户已经超过400万家，无论是做短信和网络游戏都很有条件。可是，马云还是铁了心要在电子商务里一条道走到黑，日后，走出危机的马云用一贯的戏虐口吻说，“2001年以前，我们能生存下来的首要原因是我对于技术一无所知。”其实他的成功证明了一条商业铁律，那就是“所有的成功都是抵抗诱惑的结果”。这年冬天，他飞赴日本东京向孙正义汇报公司情况。那些日子，孙正义正处在一生中最黑暗的时刻，他是世界上最大的互联网投资家，在过去几年里投资了全球150家互联网公司，软银公司所持上市互联网公司股份曾经占全球股市市值的8％。孙正义一度超过比尔盖茨成为全球首富，而此刻他的资产已经缩水95％，投资的上百家互联网公司乱成一团，大家都不知道未来的出路在哪里。那天，前来汇报的各国CEO愁眉苦脸地一个接一个地进去出来。轮到马云了，当他简短地讲完阿里巴巴的境况后，孙正义幽幽地说，“今天前来汇报的CEO，所说的话都与我当年投资他们时说的不一样了，只有你还在说当年说过的话。”回到杭州后，马云对外界宣布，明年阿里巴巴将赚钱，媒体问，盈利目标是多少？他爽快地答，1块钱。 网易的转型与阿里巴巴的坚持，显示了中国第一代互联网企业家在重大危机面前的应对智慧。相对而言，发生在中国第一门户网站新浪公司的风波，则让人们看到了另外一种残酷。 6月1日，王志东在位于北京万泉庄小学的办公区接受《南方周末》记者信海光的采访。那些日子他的心情很好，因为妻子兼创业伙伴刘冰怀孕了，据查还是一对龙凤胎。他兴致勃勃地谈论新浪在产业低谷中的抗风险能力，还不无得意地透露说，他在创业之初就把这个便宜地段租了10年之久，可以比其他网络公司节省很多开支。接受完采访，他随即飞赴美国参加董事会。两天后，刘冰挺着大肚子去机场接他，随口问：“董事会开得怎么样？”王志东答：“我不干了。”6月4日，一条新闻出现在新浪网主页的显著位置：“首席执行官王志东已经因个人原因辞职，同时，他还辞去了新浪网总裁与董事会董事的职务。新浪网董事会指派现任运营官茅道林接任执行官。”正在写稿的信海光急忙给新浪网总编辑陈彤打电话求证，陈彤说，“我也是昨夜才知道。”再给王志东的妻子打电话，刘冰说，“你随便猜吧。” 在全国媒体乱纷纷地“猜”了20天之后，一个戏剧性的场面出现了。6月25日早上9时，王志东身着带有新浪标志的蓝色衬衫，挂着新浪员工胸卡，笑容满面地走下红色的马自达私车，走进万泉庄小学的办公室“上班”。他的身后，是一群闻讯蜂拥而至的记者。王志东在随后举行的新闻发布会上宣称，“我没主动辞职，我没有签过有关的文件，他们是突然袭击，他们没给我解释的机会。我不知道理由。我现在在法律意义上依然是新浪的法人代表，对新浪负法律责任。我很负责任地说，我决不会以所谓的个人兴趣为名，逃离一线的战友。”王志东的这个行动把新浪董事会的内部矛盾全数暴露出来。 几乎所有的舆论都倒向王志东，这位33岁的年轻人是新浪网的缔造者，董事会里的每一个董事都是他亲手开门迎进来的，现在，这些人却联起手来以“个人原因”将他扫地出门，在情谊为重的东方商业伦理中，这简直是“天理难容”了。不过，在“资本”看来，却有另外一种事实。新浪自2000年4月上市以来，股价已经从最高的55美元一股跌到了1.60美元一股。打开新浪股价走势图，看到的是一幅令人惨不忍睹的情景。新浪的股东们先后投入了1.6亿美元，投资的成本均价为每股4美元，如果不能遏制持续的下跌，所有人都将血本无归。在股东们看来，身为CEO的王志东在这种跌势面前无所作为，甚至并未表现得打算有所作为。因此换掉他，是一个顺理成章的决策。《财经》杂志在评论中说，“无论对新浪还是对王志东，创业人的去职都是一件感情痛苦的事情……它将证明，在互联网浪潮中引进中国的，不仅有外国的资金与技术，还有与之相伴的成熟市场规则；它将毫无疑问地成为一个经典案例，证明资本的权利，亦证明企业家的理性。” 《财经》的评论符合日后事件发展的走向。资本没有因为王志东的反抗而妥协，王志东也很快从过激的情绪宣泄中回过神来。在时隔戏剧性的“上班风波”一个月后，他宣布创办新的公司。几年后，他在参加东方卫视的谈话节目《头脑风暴》时说，“一个人摔倒了，就要马上爬起来，否则，不摔死也会被人踩死。” 在2001年的互联网寒冬期，出局和落寞的不止王志东一人。8月，创办中国第一家B2C公司MY8848的著名网络人、因写作第一篇网络帖子《金州不相信眼泪》而闻名的“老榕”王峻涛辞去董事长职务。他对媒体说，“辞职就是一种业务重启，需要换一种方式做事业。王志东就重启了，现在我也需要重新启动一下。”他很快也创办了新的公司。10月，中国最大的网络文学网站“榕树下”以很低廉的价格出售给德国传媒巨头贝塔斯曼公司。一开始，贝塔斯曼的开价是1000万元人民币。谈判中场休息时，贝塔斯曼的代表偶然碰到“榕树下”所租办公楼的物管人员，得悉这家公司已拖欠好几个月的水电费未交。回到谈判桌上，开价一下子降到了100万元人民币，创办人朱威廉被迫接受。 12月，因开发出中文Linux软件而颇受市场追捧的深圳蓝点公司被低价出售，1999年，4位25岁的年轻人在一家咖啡屋里创办了这家公司，它的中文Linux软件一度占到全国市场80％的份额，在美国三板OTCBB市场上市的蓝点股票市值曾高达4亿美元。由一文不名到市值4亿美元，4个年轻人只用了6个月的时间，然而仅一年后，竟又奇迹般地回到了起点，蓝点的股价从22美元陡缩到0.035美元，深圳一家汽车配件公司以100万人民币的出价成了它的新主人。 This is a period of embarrassing youth.互联网经济曾经无比痛快淋漓地颠覆了过去的公司发展和财富积累模式，而在它降临人世10年之后，永恒的商业规律却以十分残忍和直白的方式告诉所有渴望成功的人们，跟以往的每一个故事一样，所有的成长都必须经历煎熬和历练，日后的辉煌将证明，危机是最好的老师，所有的苦难都是值得的。 这年7月的美国《连线》杂志刊登了一个数据，“在1984年的全美十大个人计算机软件公司中，微软排名第二，到2001年，微软跃升第一，而当年的其他9家公司在排名中都消失了。”报道人颇为感慨地写道，“也许我们应该对什么事好公司进行重新定义。”同样的公司沉浮也发生在中国的新经济企业中。有数据显示，北京中关村科技园从1995年到2001年的6年间，规模最大的前20%企业中只有1/3生存下来，活下来的企业中，只有1/5仍然居于前20%之列。 成长的烦恼弥漫在整个商业界。 这年，全美最畅销的商业图书室吉姆·柯林斯出版的《从优秀到卓越》，其讨论的主题便与此有关。7年前，柯林斯因写出了《基业长青》而成为当代最重要的商业思想家之一。在新著中，他对1965年以来《财富》杂志历年500强排名中的每一家公司（共1400多家）逐一分析，从而得出了一些让人意外的结论。柯林斯发现，公司实现从优秀到卓越的转变，跟从事的行业是否在潮流中没有关系。事实上，即使是一个从事传统行业的企业，即使它最初默默无闻，它也可能变得卓越。他得出的其他结论还包括：“技术以及技术推动的变革，实际上并不能激发从优秀到卓越的跨越”；“合并和收购在推动公司跨越过程中并没有起到任何作用”；“革命性的跨越，不一定需要革命性的过程”；“卓越并非环境的产物，在很大程度上，它是一种慎重决策的结果”。 这些观念对于曾经狂飙突进、如今深陷互联网泡沫的企业家来说，无疑是令人震惊的，它让人们重新思考成长的路径和真实意义。柯林斯还描述了创造卓越企业的“第五级领导”：“他们往往不会站在前台锋芒毕露，成为媒体的宠儿、谈论自己的理念或成为社会名流。他们大多像外星人，沉默内敛、不爱出风头，甚至有点害羞，谦逊为怀的个人特质和不屈不饶的专业精神齐集一身。他们深藏在团队后面，协调着团队的交响乐。”这样的形象描述让性喜张扬的互联网新贵们相形见绌。 在中国，人们也开始认真地咀嚼柯林斯的思想，有一位企业家的表现让人似乎看到了“第五级领导”的影子。 这年1月，华为的任正非在《华为报》上发表了一篇6000多字的长文《华为的冬天》。在过去的2000年，华为的销售额飙升到220亿元，盈利高居全国电子百强之首。不过他已经清楚地预感到了网络经济泡沫破裂后对电信市场的连累，这位一向忧虑而极度低调的企业家在开篇就问他的员工：“公司所有员工是否考虑过，如果有一天，公司销售额下滑、利润下滑甚至会破产，我们怎么办？我们公司的太平时间太长了，在和平时期升的官太多了，这也许就是我们的灾难。泰坦尼克号也是在一片欢呼声中出的海。而且我相信，这一天一定会到来。”任正非继而用不无耸动而尖利的笔调写道，“现在是春天吧，但冬天已经不远了，我们在春天与夏天要念着冬天的问题。IT业的冬天对别的公司来说不一定是冬天，而对华为可能是冬天。华为的冬天可能来得更冷一些。我们还太嫩，我们公司经过十年的顺利发展没有经历过挫折，不经过挫折，就不知道如何走向正确道路。磨难是一笔财富，而我们没有经过磨难，这是我们最大的弱点。我们完全没有适应不发展的心理准备与技能准备。” 在企业史上，任正非不是第一个写检讨和自省文字的企业家，沈阳飞龙的姜伟、山东三株的吴炳新等人都曾在企业危机爆发的时候有过同样的举措，不过，任正非确实第一个在企业还在高速成长时期就发出“红色警报”的人。他的警告见到了成效，2001年的全球电信产业果然出现惊天大滑坡，华为的全球对手美国思科业务严重下滑，全年仅报废的库存就高达22亿美元，思科股票大跌，被迫裁员8500人，董事长钱伯斯把自己的底薪降到1美元。在这样的逆境中，即时调整，“穿上了过冬棉衣”的华为却完成了255亿元的销售额。实现利润27亿元。 正是在2001年的惊涛骇浪中，23年前的那个忐忑不安的解放军代表、14年前的那个潦倒的创业者任正非完成了从优秀到卓越的跨越。