Chapter 17 Fourth Quarter Counterattack

No matter for Merkel or the entire euro country, forcing Greece to save itself is the lowest-cost and lowest-risk measure to resolve the crisis.Moreover, Greece's self-help made it difficult for financial predators. Merkel is waiting for the time, which is May 2010.In March 2010, I wrote several articles in a row, pointing out that May is a life and death node, and it is the time for a full-scale confrontation between the euro and the snipers. The reason why it is so certain is that this time cannot be changed, and all nodes are related to it. For Greece, Germany, and the United States, May 2010 is a point in time that must be faced.

Greece will not be able to delay May, the United States will not be able to survive May, and Germany will not be able to endure May. In May, it is destined to assume a mission and responsibility entrusted by history. Merkel waited in silence. On February 21, 2010, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou said in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC): "Greece has funds that can be used until mid-March." This means that Merkel must change her position after April. In fact, Merkel's attitude has begun to change slightly.Merkel said that Germany is basically ready to assist Greece, but providing financial support to Greece must comply with strict conditions.Greece needs to submit a credible fiscal savings plan to the EU and the IMF.The European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have confirmed that this plan is reasonable and feasible, and Germany will implement the aid plan.

Although Merkel once expressed the hope that the IMF would assist Greece, Merkel's bottom line is definitely not to let the IMF act alone. The best state is for the IMF to act together with the euro zone countries, so as to ensure nothing goes wrong.In fact, in early March, German Chancellor Angela Merkel proposed to establish a "European version" of the International Monetary Fund - the "European Monetary Fund" (EMF) to provide relief to EU countries in financial crisis and eliminate There is only a unified currency and a lack of a unified financial and aid mechanism.

On April 23, 2010, the Greek government couldn't hold it anymore and formally submitted a bailout application to the European Union and the IMF. On April 27, 2010, Standard & Poor's Ratings Research Agency lowered Greece's sovereign rating to "junk level"—the long-term sovereign credit rating of Greece was lowered from "BBB+" to "BB+", with a negative outlook. The rating agency once again made trouble, and the time for a counterattack gradually matured, and Merkel finally decided to take action. On April 27, Merkel issued a statement in the Chancellery saying: "If the Greek government adopts strict financial savings measures and consistently implements the savings policy in the next few years, we have a good chance to maintain and guarantee the stability of the euro." On the same day , German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and the leaders of various parties in the parliament held consultations on aiding Greece and agreed in principle to provide financial assistance to Greece, which is heavily indebted.

When the time came to May, the euro countries collectively took action. On May 3, the German cabinet passed the Greek rescue plan, agreeing to give Greece a total of 22.4 billion euros in aid in the next three years.Merkel's move shows that Greece must survive the crisis, otherwise, Germany's donation funds will be "lost." Obviously, Merkel not only made a move, but also showed her determination to break the boat. It is worth mentioning that in the process of saving Greece, Spain and other countries with the same problems and facing the same crisis (the actual situation is better than Greece), took a positive attitude in the process of aiding Greece.

The reason is very simple, as Salgado, Spain's second deputy prime minister and economic minister, said: "Aiding Greece is of positive significance to Spain, because it will help stabilize the euro zone and reduce Spain's financing costs." As long as Greece survives, Spain even saves the strength to fight. This means that the EU has reached a consensus on the issue of saving Greece. In the early hours of May 10, 2010, the finance ministers of the 27 EU countries decided to set up a rescue mechanism with a total amount of up to 750 billion euros to help euro zone member states that may be in debt crisis, so as to prevent the Greek debt crisis from spreading.This rescue mechanism consists of three parts, of which 440 billion euros will be provided by the euro zone countries in the form of intergovernmental agreements, another 60 billion euros will be raised by the European Commission from the financial market, and the IMF will also provide 250 billion euros."It shows the EU's determination to defend the euro," European Commissioner Olli Rehn, responsible for economic and monetary affairs, told a news conference after the meeting.

It is worth mentioning that the United Kingdom, which has not joined the euro zone, has shown a side of indifference at this time.As usual, this is nothing.But now is the moment of decisive battle for the euro countries. The euro countries need Britain, and they cannot tolerate Britain standing by. On May 10, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling said: "It is very clear to me. If there is a proposal to establish a euro emergency rescue fund, then it is a matter for the euro area countries. We will not do it, and we will not do it." You can't allow yourself to do that because it's supporting the euro, and the responsibility for supporting the euro rests with the single currency."

Britain's attitude aroused the dissatisfaction of the euro countries. On May 11, 2010, the British "Daily Telegraph" published a report titled "Europe tells Britain not to ask for help in a crisis", saying that since the UK did not sign the 378 billion pound rescue plan, whether it is Officials in both the euro zone and non-euro zone countries have said that if the UK was in financial crisis, it should not have to ask other European countries for help, and it would not get it.Jean-Pierre Jouille, head of the French Financial Market Supervisory Authority, said that Britain's disregard for its euro zone partners means that "only God can save it" when it encounters a financial crisis.France, Sweden and other EU countries are predicting that it is only a matter of time before Britain encounters a crisis.

From this news, it is not difficult to feel how clear, how urgent and how united the euro countries are on the issue of saving Greece at this critical moment of life and death in May. Although Armageddon did not destroy the euro - which is not the original intention of the snipers (for reasons that will be discussed later), it greatly weakened the influence of the euro.Moreover, attacks against the euro will continue in the future.Only when the interests of the euro countries and the United States converge, will the harassment calm down. After the euro, who is the next target to be targeted by financial predators?This issue will be analyzed next, and for now, I need to emphasize some common sense that has been neglected.

"Flies don't bite seamless eggs." Those that become the targets of financial predators' attacks and prey all have major flaws.The reason why speculators like Soros dared to successfully attack the British pound in 1992, the Thai baht in 1997, which became the fuse that detonated the economic crisis in Southeast Asia, and the euro in 2010, is that they discovered the The slit on the egg looks intact.This slit is the defect. Soros believes: "All the constructions of the human mind, no matter whether the construction is limited to the depths of our thinking or manifested in various disciplines, various ideologies, or various systems, are flawed." The "flawed" here is not possible. "Can be wrong", but definitely "can be wrong".Soros said: "The concept of fallibility encourages me to look for the flaws in every situation, and then benefit from finding the flaws."

Soros is a speculative predator who is good at discovering flaws and finding the weakest link in the flaws to attack with all his strength in order to obtain huge profits.Looking at the countries that have been sniped by speculators, which one is not full of problems?In fact, even without Soros' sniping, these problems would have triggered a crisis within it, but time has passed.Crisis cannot be avoided.Taking Greece as an example, although it escaped the important time node of May 2010 by chance, if it cannot effectively solve its defects, then, a year later, it may find itself back on this node in May, Surrounded by many crises. This fully reflects the superiority of a good system.Under a benign system, relevant problems can be repaired in time, and the country becomes stronger because of this, but China lacks this kind of self-repair ability.This weakness is precisely the most vulnerable link in China, and it is also what we should be most vigilant and reflect on. Although the forces dominated by American speculators maintain a high degree of consistency with the national interests of the United States while sniping everywhere, for this force that is often free from government supervision, its terrible aggressiveness , The U.S. government is also very vigilant-from this point, it is not difficult to see the meticulousness and rigor of the United States in self-protection. Take a small example. The British "Financial Times" reported on July 15, 2009: The US Department of Justice has recently sent investigation letters to various banks that hold shares in Markit Group. On July 13, 2009, Markit Group spokeswoman Teresa Chick said in an e-mail statement: "Markit Group has received notification from the Department of Justice that the Department is conducting an investigation into credit default swaps and the related market." Why target Markit Group? Just look at its background: Markit Group was founded in 2001, and its shareholders include JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Markit Group provides pricing data for the CDS (Credit Default Swap) market and has developed many of the most watched derivatives pricing benchmarks, such as the ABX, CDX and ITraxx European indices for the mortgage industry. The United States has begun to pay attention to the actions of these predators, which is enough to prove its strong ability to protect itself.We have no way of knowing the investigation process of the U.S. judiciary, nor the results of their investigation, but I believe that the U.S. has obtained valuable information during the investigation. In September 2009, the London-based Markit Group developed the Western European Sovereign Index iTraxx SovX, which is based on credit default swap contracts for 15 European countries. We should pay attention: Whenever the speculators attack a certain target, they like to use leverage tools to amplify the crisis.Subsequently, the sniping began, and from Dubai to Greece, the debt crisis detonated successively.The connection among them is evocative. The enlightenment for China is: whether the speculative predators can discover their own flaws and repair them in time to achieve self-protection is much simpler and easier than the difficult game after the attack. The attack on the Euro countries is just the beginning. Next, we will see more thrilling games. Although these games seem to be far away from China, China has never really been far away from the big game.Looking at the trend of China regardless of the international chessboard, it will always be vague. The big chess game has been laid out, and everything is proceeding step by step.