Chapter 16 The thrilling counterattack in the third quarter

The Greek debt crisis is considered by many to be the trigger for the debt problems of the entire euro country, and it affects the whole body. On December 11, 2009, the Standard Bank of South Africa issued a research report predicting that the economic conditions of countries such as Greece and Ireland could not be tolerated, which may lead these two countries to accept external assistance, and may even be forced to withdraw from the euro zone before the end of 2010. .When the Greek debt crisis was at its most turbulent, it once aroused concerns about whether the euro would disintegrate-this shows the seriousness of the problem.

Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing such a big problem, there is still a scene that confuses many people: what people see is not the collective challenge and common face of the euro countries as imagined, but silence and acting as a bystander , Let Greece suffer in crisis. Germany is the locomotive of the entire euro country. Before April 2010, German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued several statements saying: With the political support of EU countries, Greece can solve its own debt crisis by itself, which is the best solution for the euro.Merkel said that there is no need for the European Union to introduce emergency aid measures for Greece, because the Greek government does not face the real threat of a repayment crisis.She said that Greek Prime Minister Papandreou has repeatedly told her that Greece will not request financial assistance from the EU.Merkel also said that due to technical problems, the EU has not yet been able to make a political decision on aiding Greece.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's most famous statement is: "The best way to help Greece right now is to tell it clearly that it must do its own thing." Many people criticized Germany for doing nothing. In fact, they did not understand the great wisdom hidden behind it. In the extremely dangerous situation at the time, Merkel remained calm and stopped quietly, which was actually the best response plan. When the "snipers" on Wall Street are at their positions and are all ready for a decisive battle, if they make a rash move, if they fail, the euro country will be completely disintegrated.This is a decisive battle that cannot allow the slightest mistake, and the weakness of the euro countries is very obvious.

In fact, all the speculators have done is to force the euro countries represented by Germany to make a move as soon as possible-this is related to the entire chess game. According to Bloomberg statistics, Greece must raise 53 billion euros of funds in 2010, and must repay more than 20 billion euros of due debts by the end of May.Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said on February 21 that Greece has the funds to cope until mid-March. Speculative predators have strongly obstructed financing in the Greek market from the very beginning.The Euro countries led by Germany hope that the sovereign debtor countries will save themselves by issuing bonds in the market and avoiding the risk of default by rolling over the debt.If Greece repays its matured debts with financing in the market, it means that financial capital will help itself repay its debts. Not only will it be unprofitable, but the risk of default on new sovereign debt will still exist in the future.The so-called market forces with financial speculative capital as the main body have huge incentives to increase financing costs in the Greek market, making financing operations fail, and highlighting the default risk of Greek sovereign debt. Since the beginning of 2010, the CDS of Greek sovereign debt has risen sharply, and at its peak it was 540 basis points higher than the yield on German 10-year government bonds. The cost of financing has increased significantly, and market financing has been severely hindered.

Because of this, until March 23, 2010, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was still emphasizing that EU member states can assist Greece, but it must be implemented by the IMF first, and the euro zone countries should intervene voluntarily as a supplement. "Germany will urge the IMF and the eurozone countries to implement assistance. But I would like to reiterate that this should only be done as a last resort...Greece is not bankrupt, it can take action to raise funds in international markets." Merkel forced Greece to defuse the siege of speculators by financing in the market.Not only Merkel, but the entire EU knows that Greece's self-help is the best option to avoid further attacks.On February 28, 2010, the Greek "Free Press" quoted the statement of the chairman of the Eurogroup and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker: Germany, Belgium or Luxembourg "are not ready to correct the mistakes caused by its fiscal policy for Greece".Juncker asked Greece to take further measures to reduce expenditure and increase revenue.

Speculative predators have prevented Greece from financing through the market, but tried their best to force the rescue plan of the euro countries to come out as soon as possible.The game of financial capital requires a rescue plan with real money.Some EU countries, led by Germany, have hesitated to rescue Greece, and the protests in Greece against the IMF's participation in the rescue have made Greek government bond holders very uncertain about whether they can obtain the original income.If Greece really defaults, can the holders sell Aegean Island to pay off the debt? Obviously, what the speculators are afraid of is not that the euro country will save Greece, but that it will not save Greece.The speculators have already prepared their trump card - if Germany saves Greece, the speculators can immediately detonate the five "stupid pigs" including Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Italy, and wipe out the rescue army.In that way, the speculative predators will win a big victory and return with a full reward.

But they want to keep it simple. This time, the speculators have met a tough and intelligent opponent. Merkel was very clear about the snipers' intentions.She has her own considerations for Greece to save itself. If the anti-sniper war fails, she can survive with a broken arm and directly expel Greece from the euro country to ensure the integrity of the euro-of course, this approach is not the best choice. Greece is followed by Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy... If Germany makes a premature move, even if it is exhausted, it may not be able to do anything.Merkel needs to wait for the opportunity, so as not to reveal greater flaws and block her room for maneuver.The only risk of holding the brakes is that the euro actually breaks up.But for Germany, a country with a solid industrial foundation and a solid real economy, even if it exits the euro, it will still be full of vitality.The return of the Deutsche Mark king can still occupy a place-it must be admitted that this is the foundation of Germany's standing on the sidelines for a long time, and it is also the capital accumulated by a nation down-to-earth.How can it not be enviable!

Moreover, what is Merkel's biggest concern or fear?The United States has never lost a currency war, and it pursues the realm of seeking defeat alone. In this regard, Germany absolutely dare not take it lightly.Germany is a very traditional country. For example, its companies are not keen on going to the market for financing. Even if they lack money, they basically solve it through traditional methods such as bank credit.Under this asymmetrical game, if Wall Street starts from Greece and attacks the euro countries one by one, if Germany goes to fight one by one, it will exhaust Germany's strength and eventually bring down Germany!As far as the world is concerned, Germany is the only country that can compete with the United States in terms of technological innovation.Merkel must preserve her strength, and her bottom line is very clear: Even if the euro is abolished, Germany must not be damaged!

The euro without Germany may collapse, but Germany without the euro is still strong. This mentality of Germany is most vividly reflected in its dealings with the Euro countries - if this is understood, many problems can be easily solved. Merkel also faces a more thorny resistance - the German public strongly opposed to aid for Greece.Most Germans hold a negative attitude towards aiding Greece.Several surveys have shown that more than half, or even close to 60%, of the German public oppose government assistance to Greece.Some people said that aiding Greece would not only do little to improve the Greek economy, but would also be a burden to Germany.Moreover, the German election is coming soon, and Chancellor Angela Merkel has to take into account domestic public opinion, so it is difficult to change her opposition to aiding Greece in the short term.After Greece said in March 2010 that it was considering seeking help from the IMF, Barroso, the rotating president of the European Commission, immediately expressed his position and urged all member states to reach an agreement on a specific plan to aid Greece at the summit.The French side even made a high-profile statement to support a strong euro and to issue a specific rescue plan with Germany as soon as possible.But Merkel said in strong terms on March 21 that the issue of aid to Greece should not be the focus of this week's leaders' summit.Merkel pointed out that Greece is fully capable of solving the current debt problem, and she called on the leaders of all countries not to immediately take aid and connive Greece.

Merkel must let Greece try its best to save itself and consume the "enemy".Moreover, in the process of consuming speculators, Germany will also be the beneficiary - the depreciation of the euro, Germany's manufacturing industry is invincible, and the export growth momentum will be unmatched.If we compare the data released after the event, we can know where Germany's confidence lies: On May 12, 2010, the German Federal Statistical Office announced the preliminary statistical results of Germany's seasonally adjusted GDP in the first quarter of 2010, indicating that the first The economy was better than expected in the quarter and started to emerge from the shadow of recession, due to a significant increase in exports.Especially in March 2010, exports increased by 10.7% month-on-month to 85.6 billion euros, the largest increase since July 1992.According to data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on August 24, 2010, German exports in the second quarter increased by 8.2% compared with the previous quarter, and equipment investment increased by 4.4% compared with the previous quarter.Germany's GDP rose by 2.2% month-on-month, creating the largest quarterly increase in nearly 20 years and leading the euro zone's GDP to achieve a 1% increase in the quarter.According to the latest data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on January 12, 2011, under the boost of export trade and investment activities, Germany’s GDP increased by 3.6% in 2010, the fastest annual economic growth rate since the reunification of Germany in 1992. .

There is another important reason why Merkel dared to stop silently. She had a plan in mind. Fortunately, the Greek Prime Minister Papandreou at this time was a master who had insight into the international situation and was good at leveraging strength. The top master of flickering in today's world politics. On October 5, 2009, the Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement led by Papandreou won the Greek general election and was authorized by Greek President Carlos Papoulias to form a new government.He continued the family myth and became the third prime minister of the Papandreou family after his grandfather and father. What Papandreou is facing is a mess that can be described as riddled with holes - the national debt is as high as 300 billion euros.Greece's fiscal deficit accounted for 12% of GDP, far exceeding the 3% ceiling set by the Eurozone; the public debt balance accounted for 110% of GDP.The Greek crisis has many people predicting that it may become "the next Lehman". Moreover, Greece's "reputation" is also very bad. Greeks are being slammed as "the world's most spendthrifts" and the eurozone is paying for their mistakes in a Greek debt crisis that has engulfed the whole of Europe - and economists say the culprit is The Greek government continues to borrow more than it can earn to feed the high welfare of the country's citizens.An American media sarcastically said that Greece consumes like a billionaire, but in fact they are not even millionaires. They are living like kings with soldiers' salaries.In Greece, many people think that it doesn't matter whether they pay taxes or not, because the government does not punish them according to law.This loophole was ignored even as the Greek government embarked on austerity measures.According to a research report by the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, bribery, donations and other public office corruption cause the Greek government to lose more than 20 billion euros a year, equivalent to 8% of Greece's GDP. "Transparency International" survey report in March 2010 stated that in 2009, 13.5% of families in Greece had paid bribes, with an average bribe of 1,355 euros per family."Greeks take out envelopes containing cash to get driver's licenses, doctor's appointments and building permits, or to lower their tax burden," the report said. Still, Papandreou must go all out to save Greece. Papandreou was very aware of his situation and of Germany's intentions.He knew that he had to rely on himself, and only on himself.His Greek government decided to implement a severe austerity plan. On March 3, 2010, Greece announced an austerity package worth 4.8 billion euros (6.5 billion U.S. dollars), hoping to ease the huge debt pressure of up to 300 billion euros and reduce the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP in 2010 from 12.7% in 2009 was reduced to 8.7%.In order to effectively "increase income and reduce expenditure", the Greek government decided to pay equal attention to tax increases and salary cuts, and plans to obtain 2.4 billion euros in revenue from each.In terms of tax increases, Greece will increase the consumption tax on tobacco and alcohol products in the future, and the business surtax rate will be raised from the current 19% to 21%; in terms of salary reduction, the plan decides to cut the annual salary of civil servants, which will be "13th month", " In the 14th month, the Easter, Christmas and other holiday subsidies paid in the form of wages will be reduced by 30%, and the pensions of civil servants will be frozen at the same time. Papandreou has no other way to go. He must win the sympathy of the Euro countries by being harsh on himself, and also win more opportunities for himself. He had to take a risk when protesters clashed with riot police in Syntagma Square in Athens, the Greek capital. Austerity plans put enormous pressure on the lives of Greeks, and general strikes swept the country. At this time and this scene, even the United States, which is watching the fire from the other side, can't help but be moved by it. Papandreou has no time to take care of these. He started a trip to Europe and the United States and visited Luxembourg, Germany and France successively to seek political support from leaders of various countries for Greece to solve the debt crisis and restore the trust of international investors in Greek government bonds.He clearly expressed the view that Greece is only a small country, but if it is hit, it may form dominoes, leading to the collapse of the euro and causing the world to fall back into crisis. Members of the euro countries are all worried about this.Papandreou closely linked the fate of Greece with the euro countries.With this perspective, he is less a rescuer and more a fighter for the euro. The euro countries are thinking.They are getting closer to bailing out Greece. But all countries are still staring at the United States. Who did Papandreou fool? The choice of the United States determines the fate of Greece and also determines the coping strategies of the Euro countries.Before the United States expresses its position, any rash action may bring disaster.Papandreou wants the US government to intervene in the bloodthirsty attacks on Wall Street. On March 8, 2010, Papandreou traveled thousands of miles to the United States to start his flickering journey. Despite the domestic crisis, Papandreou held a high profile.Facing the strong United States, he said: "We are not here to ask for money, we are not here to borrow money, we just hope that as equal partners, we can get what other countries can get, that is, borrowing at normal interest rates." Hillary Clinton confirmed after meeting with Papandreou that day: "Neither the Greek Prime Minister nor Greece has asked the United States for any economic assistance." With his wisdom, Papandreou summed up three key points, all of which hit the sore spots of the United States.First, "the spread of the debt crisis will lead to a slide in the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar, and will also lead to an increase in the US trade deficit, which is not conducive to the recovery of the US economy."Second, the Greek crisis will form a "domino effect" that will lead to a crisis in the national debt of major countries such as the United States, "push up the borrowing costs of other countries with large deficits, and cause global bond and exchange rate markets to fall into turmoil" -- and this This is exactly what the United States is most worried about.Third, he warned that some major U.S. hedge funds are shorting the euro significantly: the Greek debt crisis may trigger a chain reaction in the euro zone and even the European Union. The degree is comparable to the round of financial crisis that started two years ago" -- when people have not yet emerged from the shadow of the subprime mortgage crisis, Americans have to think about Papandreou's words. On March 8, Papandreou delivered a speech at the Brookings Institution in the United States, saying that the financial institutions that created the financial crisis in the United States are making huge profits from Greece's "misfortune", and the United States and Europe must work together regardless of the consequences. The speculative behavior called a stop.Papandreou emphasized that the Greek debt problem has triggered recent fluctuations in the international financial circles, and the financial instability in Greece and Europe has also posed a threat to the United States. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou keeps saying that the Greek crisis is not a global crisis, but Papandreou subtly tells Americans that the crisis in Greece is at least partly a crisis that the United States has to face.At this time, Greece seems to be no longer a euro country, but a "dollar country". With his own wisdom, Papandreou linked the fate of Greece with the euro countries and the United States. Regardless of whether the interests are aligned or opposed, it is not possible for ordinary people to knead them together so perfectly. Those who chanted slogans and protested may not know that Papandreou is trying to win a chance for Greece to be reborn. Papandreou's neither humble nor overbearing statement made the American media couldn't help sighing that he is a clever negotiator who does not reveal himself. Euro countries don't need aid from the United States. They only need the United States to do one thing: not to add to the trouble, but to add to the flames.The euro countries would be thankful that the United States had only to curb speculation.Of course, America needs to choose its timing. Germany waits and does not send out, and sits and watches Greece save itself, which not only buys more precious time for the euro countries to save themselves, but also consumes "snipers".Just as the "Cao GUI Debate" in "Zuo Zhuan Ten Years of Zhuang Gong" said: "A husband fights with courage. One effort, then decline, and three exhaustion." Speculative predators were anxiously waiting, dejected.