Chapter 4 Chapter 03 Exchange Rate War: What is the real purpose of the United States

The United States uses asset bubble war against us, what should China do? What is the real crisis in China? How did the United States force Japan to open its financial markets? Bombing Japan trilogy. How should the United States deal with China?According to the interpretation in the second chapter of this book, the United States has always been taking advantage of others' dangers. I think the best way is to first analyze what is the current crisis in China? In the last chapter of my book, I talked about a very interesting topic called Obama's three "gifts".The first is called the exchange rate war; the second is called the trade war; the third is called the cost war.Do readers think that these three gifts were all randomly thought up by Obama's team?Then let me tell you clearly now that this is carefully designed according to our three major crises.

I once talked about China's economic problems in a book. Unfortunately, the prediction I made in the book I wrote a year ago was true again.Since I don't want to lose the logical coherence of this book, I will briefly explain the current situation of China's economy, and at the same time add some new materials to support my prediction at that time. Our crisis actually started in 2006.Do you remember that in 2006, we also experienced the housing market bubble and the stock market bubble. At that time, there were two schools of scholars talking about this topic. One school may be me alone; the other school is everyone else.What do they think?They say that all of this is because the economy has developed too successfully and the people have become rich, so everyone has so much money to speculate in real estate and stocks, which creates bubbles in the real estate market and the stock market.This interpretation is called the interpretation of excess liquidity.What is the so-called excess liquidity?That is to say, there is too much money in hand, the real estate market is in a bubble, and the stock market is in a bubble.

So what do I think?I said that this is not because the economic development has been too successful. On the contrary, it is because our economic development has failed too much.In other words, before 2006, since the investment and business environment faced by our manufacturing-based private enterprises had begun to deteriorate in an all-round way, manufacturing entrepreneurs used the money that should be invested in manufacturing to speculate in real estate and stocks , thus creating a property market bubble and a stock market bubble.According to my theory, this is the beginning of the crisis in the manufacturing industry, because entrepreneurs quit the manufacturing industry and went to speculate in real estate and stocks.Of course, you also know that the government does not listen to me as always. When the government implemented macro-control, it decided to accept the view of the other school, thinking that it was excess liquidity. Why did it accept the view of the other school?Because the subtext of their excess liquidity is that the leaders are too wise.

My opinion is particularly unpleasant. What kind of manufacturing crisis sounds harsh, and our nation does not like to hear harsh words.I'm a bad speaker, so no one listens to me when I speak.Then the government decided to take back liquidity through macro-control. In their thinking, they always think that it will be good after the liquidity is taken back. Then we don’t have so much money in our hands to speculate in real estate, nor do we have so much money to speculate in stocks. Therefore, the property market bubble and the stock market bubble will be resolved together.Therefore, in 2007, under the leadership of this thinking, the government raised interest rates a total of six times. The purpose was to recover the liquidity, thinking that as long as the liquidity was recovered, it would be fine. ' But, please recall, what was the result of raising interest rates six times in 2007?Don't you find it strange that the stock prices have all risen sharply?

Wouldn't raising interest rates bring back liquidity?Isn't the money in your hand less?Then you can't trade in stocks?Then the stock price should fall, how could it not fall but rise instead?I am sorry to tell my friends that Lang Xianping's theory is correct, that is because every time you raise the interest rate, the result is a further blow to the investment environment of our manufacturing industry.So buddies don't even want to do it, what will they do?They put out more money to speculate in real estate and stocks, so that every time interest rates are raised, stock prices rise sharply.Therefore, the bubble in 2006 symbolized the comprehensive crisis of the future manufacturing industry. By the middle of 2008, before the financial tsunami, 30% of the manufacturing industry in Guangdong Province had closed down. The manufacturing industry has closed down by 20%, why?Because the investment and business environment of the manufacturing industry has deteriorated in an all-round way since 2006, my theory has been fully supported by actual data.

The real crisis in China is called the manufacturing crisis. It is not a financial tsunami at all. The financial tsunami just made the problem worse.So by 2010, has the crisis in our manufacturing industry been resolved?No!From 2006 to the end of 2009, do you think the manufacturing industry is getting better?No!First, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated sharply. For example, it has appreciated by 20% against the US dollar in the past three years, but it has only appreciated by 40% against the euro during the financial tsunami. Isn't that killing my country's export manufacturing industry by hand?Second, the export tax rebate was lowered, and it was only adjusted back to 17% in July 2009. So at that time, many media came to interview me and said, Professor Lang, can you talk about the positive significance of our government’s increase in the export tax rebate rate? I said No, I said I'm very busy, don't ask me such boring questions, next time you ask me about Zhang Huimei, I'm willing to answer a little bit.I just want to ask you, why did you tone it down in the first place?Doesn't that mean you misjudged the economic situation?If you lowered the export tax rebate rate, isn’t that another blow to my country’s export manufacturing industry?Third, the "Labor Contract Law of the People's Republic of China" was implemented in January 2008. Although I agree with the legislation itself, that is, the government should come forward to protect vulnerable groups, but what is the problem?The introduction of this bill lacked both demonstration and pilot projects. The result of hasty introduction made more than one-third of my country's manufacturing industry fall into trouble immediately, and hit my country's manufacturing industry. As a result of the manufacturing industry's loss, the laborers lost, and the laborers If the government loses, it has to pay the bill, resulting in a three-lose situation where the government also loses. It is truly unprecedented that one bill causes the whole country to lose, but we have done it.Fourth, macro-control. The premise of macro-control is wrong. It is wrong to withdraw liquidity. The more macro-control, the more it will hit our manufacturing industry.Fifth, in 2009, taxes and fees in various places increased, including the increase in apportionment. I believe that all entrepreneurs have similar experiences, so I won't go into too much detail.

For these five reasons, the rise of the exchange rate, the reduction of export tax rebates, the introduction of the "Labor Contract Law of the People's Republic of China", the introduction of macro-control and the increase of taxes and fees have made the investment and operating environment of private enterprises worse in the past three years. And what did the financial tsunami cause?Exports plummeted.Readers, please think about why China has become an export-oriented country?Because of the two major policies of the local government, the first policy is called focusing on construction to stimulate GDP, and the second policy is called attracting investment.What is wrong with these two policies?What does it mean to focus on construction to stimulate GDP? That is, the local government builds up my country's GDP by building bridges and paving roads and other reinforced concrete. It is not at all that our economy has any remarkable growth, but it is basically driven by reinforced concrete.This is why 57% of my country's GDP in 2008 was reinforced concrete, thus reducing consumption to only 35% of GDP.It was even worse in 2009, when 67% of GDP was reinforced concrete, thus reducing consumption to 29% of GDP.Therefore, China has become a country with a serious shortage of consumption power.In comparison, consumption in other countries accounts for 70% to 80% of GDP, which shows how distorted and deformed our economic development is.

What is investment attraction is the crazy investment attraction of local governments in our country. As for the environmental pollution, resource destruction, and labor exploitation brought about by investment promotion, local governments basically don't care.For example, the beautiful Qingdao has introduced high-pollution chemical plants, and the tourist island of Hainan has also introduced high-pollution chemical plants.However, the result of vigorously attracting investment is that China's production capacity has been greatly expanded. In 2008, the production capacity has reached 70% of GDP.Readers, please think about it, in 2008 we had 70% of production capacity, but only consumed 35%, so the remaining 35% of production capacity that cannot be consumed is called overcapacity.then what should we do?Therefore, it is only exported to foreigners for consumption, so it has to digest excess production capacity by not exporting, thus stimulating China's economy through exports.The question is what is the consumption of foreigners, especially Americans?Simply speaking, it is the advanced consumption of borrowed money, referred to as bubble consumption.But as long as it is a bubble, it will burst, and the financial tsunami caused the burst of bubble consumption in the United States, which hit my country's exports and caused serious overcapacity.

So in 2009, our manufacturing industry was even harder. Not only was the investment and business environment deteriorating, but there was also overcapacity, so people didn't want to invest even more. Isn't this the same as in Japan?Although the reasons are different, the result is that they all don't want to do it.What are you doing then?A large amount of manufacturing capital has entered the property market and the stock market, so since November 2008, China's stock market has recovered ahead of the rest of the world.Why?I don't want to do manufacturing!My buddy went to speculate in stocks. Since the beginning of 2009, the property market has also picked up. Why?The manufacturing industry does not want to do it anymore!I went to buy high-end real estate, and I went to buy cars and luxury goods, so the Chinese economy seems to be picking up, but in fact, the manufacturing industry does not want to do it, which creates a bubble phenomenon.In other words, the Chinese economy is sick. The first disease is the deterioration of the investment and business environment, and the second disease is overcapacity. The inevitable result of the disease is fever, but we, a nation that feels good, interpret fever as recovery.In the first quarter of 2010, I pointed out this fever phenomenon sharply. In the first quarter of 2010, my point of view was finally confirmed. At the end of March 2010, Premier Wen Jiabao admitted for the first time that the number of unemployed people in China was as high as 200 million. It is not the 20 million people that the Bureau of Statistics calls.And this number of unemployment is also the forecast I gave in Shanghai Baosteel speech in September 2008. Looking back now, if the government can pay attention to my forecast at that time, the situation will not be so bad today.

And at the end of 2008 and 2009, we made another serious mistake, that is, the government hastily prescribed six major medicines for tigers and wolves, including agricultural reform, medical reform, four trillion, and ten industrial revitalization plans. , Cars, home appliances, and building materials to the countryside, and 60% of bank credit in 2009 was invested in infrastructure.As I predicted in the book "Lang Xianping Said: Who Is Rescuing China's Economy", neither the agricultural reform nor the medical reform can cure the two diseases of our economy, while the remaining four tiger-wolf medicines seem to be pulling Domestic demand, but in fact it is taking advantage of tomorrow's overcapacity and digesting today's overcapacity.What does it mean?Let me take the 4 trillion yuan as an example. The 4 trillion yuan is basically invested in the infrastructure construction in the Midwest, and take the highway as an example. After the construction is completed, will there be cars running on it?Basically no.Expressways without cars are all called expressways with overcapacity, so once the road is built, there will be overcapacity.However, steel and cement are needed during construction, so it can digest the excess capacity of 200 million tons in the steel market and the excess capacity of 1.1 billion tons in the cement market.But what about when it's built tomorrow?After the expressway is completed, there will be overcapacity. Since there is no need for steel and cement, returning these two industries to the original form will cause overcapacity.I thought that this overcapacity would not appear until the middle of 2010, but I didn't expect it to appear after a book was published. On August 26, 2009, Premier Wen Jiabao said at the executive meeting of the State Council that the production capacity of steel, cement, flat glass, coal chemical industry, polysilicon, and wind energy was excessive. On January 20 and March 20, 2010, Premier Wen Jiabao said at the executive meeting of the State Council that all 10 major industries, including coal, electric power, coke, ferroalloy, calcium carbide, non-ferrous metals, steel, building materials, light industry, and textiles, had excess capacity .

These six tiger and wolf medicines failed to cure the first disease, and the four tiger and wolf medicines made the second disease more serious. Since the disease is more serious, the fever should be more serious.How did this persistent fever come about?It is derived from the remaining 40% of credit in 2009 to short-term loans mainly to state-owned enterprises.So let me ask readers, have the two diseases faced by these state-owned enterprises been solved?Not resolved.Since it was not resolved, they suddenly got so much bank credit, what would he do?Stocks have been traded, and there is also land speculation, so more money has entered the stock market and property market, which has caused more severe fever. Do you think it's all right?You have released 10 trillion currencies in just one year. I think you are not too afraid of inflation, are you?Then I ask you, what if inflation comes?Then the money you keep in the bank will be worthless. In order to make the money worthless, do you dare to invest in the real economy? For example, some of your brothers open a plastic toy processing factory, do you dare?Because you are relatively normal, you dare not, unless your head is flooded, right?How dare you invest in the real economy?Because two diseases were not resolved.What will you do then?Only a large number of safe-haven funds to escape inflation have entered the stock market and the property market, causing even more feverish phenomena. Well, at the end of the story, you found that the stock market has been hit by three funds: the first fund has two diseases that have not been resolved, and manufacturing funds have entered first; the second fund has two diseases that have not been resolved, and credit funds in the hands of state-owned enterprises dare not invest The entity, and then enter the stock market; the third tranche of funds, the two diseases have not been resolved, and the safe-haven funds that escape inflation dare not enter the real economy, and then enter the stock market.Therefore, three funds entered the stock market and caused a fever. What about the property market?The two diseases have not been solved. The manufacturing funds entered first, and the two diseases have not been resolved. The safe-haven funds to escape inflation dare not enter the real economy, and then enter the property market. These two funds are called speculative funds, basically hitting high-end Real estate, so it caused the bubble phenomenon of rising stock prices and the bubble phenomenon of simultaneous rise in property prices, and it was driven by high-end real estate.Comrades, this is the first crisis in China in 2010 - the asset bubble. When the US "Newsweek" website recently wrote an article predicting the top ten international events in 2010, it listed China's economic bubble as the second.The article said, "China is generally considered to be the main winner of the global financial crisis, with an economic growth of 8%, political stability, and abundant funds. However, a lot of funds have flowed to the stock and real estate markets. Some hedge funds have begun to be bearish on the Chinese economy. If The bursting of bubbles in China’s stock market and real estate market will lead to global deflation.” In fact, from each case of Asian economic bubbles, we can see that it is foreign capital that played the role of the bubble detonator, then, Against such dangers, does the Chinese economy have a firewall?
But we still have a second crisis, which is what should be done about China's economy in the future. Our future economy will fall into the predicament of economic stagnation.The Bureau of Statistics announced that the GDP growth rate in 2009 was 8.7%. Sorry, I don't believe it at all.In fact, the Bureau of Statistics should be called the "Bureau of Statistics". Basically, they compile whatever data the leaders like.This kind of irresponsible behavior misleads the national policy, and it is sad enough to be so unprincipled, so I don't want to criticize them anymore.But even if I criticize them, they eat enough and sleep enough, so it's useless to say. In 2010, the leader set a target of 9%, and I believe the "Bureau of Statistics" will definitely compile a growth rate of 9%. So how is China going to grow from 2010 onwards?We will talk from the perspective of the troika: the first carriage is consumption; the second carriage is export; the third carriage is government investment. Let's talk about consumption first.There seem to be only two sources of consumption, the first salary and the second savings.Let’s talk about salary first. In order to compare with other countries, we divide the salary income by GDP, which is about 55% in Europe and the United States, about 33% in Central and South America, 28% in Southeast Asia including the Philippines and Thailand, and 25% in Iran and Turkey in the Middle East. %, Africa should be less than 20%, and our China is 8% that makes us feel discouraged as soon as we hear it.And the hourly salary per person in China is 80 cents US dollars, and it ranks last in the world.How can such a salary be spent? What about savings?Many of our professional scholars have said that China is a country with large savings, and it can turn savings into consumption to stimulate the Chinese economy.I found that many of our scholars do not do research, but imagine it out of thin air.There is no need for too complicated concepts, only the level of the second grade of elementary school can educate our scholars.Let's do a simple arithmetic.How much is the household savings in China? It is less than 26 trillion yuan, divided by 1.3 billion people, and the level of the second grade of elementary school can be calculated. It is less than 20,000 yuan, but our scholars do not know how to calculate it.As long as you do the math, you will find that the per capita savings is less than 20,000 yuan. Is this also called a country with big savings? In October 2009, "Times Weekly" quoted Boston Consulting Group's wealth report and pointed out that 0.4% of China's rich people accounted for 70% of China's wealth. The "Bureau of Statistics" says that 5% of households own 45% of the wealth, which is certainly an underestimate.If the wealth of these people is deducted, then the per capita savings is less than 10,000 yuan. Is this also called a saving country? When the per capita savings is less than 10,000 yuan, what should I do if my parents are sick?What should I do if my children pay tuition fees?What if your child is promising to be admitted to Fudan University?The tuition fee for one semester is 6,000 yuan, not counting room and board.The average savings of 99% of people in China is the tuition fee for one semester of children. How can consumption be increased?Does it depend on those few rich people?These people have a lot of money, so there is no problem with spending time and drinking everywhere. The problem is how many bowls of rice can you eat a day?Only rely on the 99% of the population, but they are too poor.Consumption can't be pulled, so the first carriage is out of play. The second carriage, exit.Who pulls our exits?United States.U.S. consumption drives China's exports, so what is U.S. consumption?They are all advanced consumption borrowed money, also known as bubble consumption. Before 2008, per capita saving in the United States was close to zero.However, the financial tsunami burst the consumption bubble in the United States. Therefore, in 2009, the savings rate of Americans became 4.5%, which means that the consumption of Americans has decreased by this level.If the consumption of the United States decreases so much, China's exports will decline accordingly, so China's exports will fall into a long-term recession.The second chariot - export is not working, nor can it pull the economy. This explains why the government uses 4 trillion yuan to boost the economy, but all the government's investment is to use tomorrow's overcapacity to absorb today's overcapacity. Once the construction is completed, the whole of China will definitely become a big hole of overcapacity.May I ask, do we have new growth points?If not, our future economy will be stuck in secular stagnation, and economic stagnation is the second crisis we face after 2010. But we have a third crisis, that is, our government released 9.59 trillion in 2009, and we almost released 12 trillion in bank credit in the 14 months before the end of February 2010, so severe inflation is absolutely inevitable , This is the third crisis after 2010 - inflation. Do readers think that the three gifts of Obama mentioned in the last chapter are his imagination?Readers, please think about it, as long as I, Lang Xianping, can understand these two brushes, do you think Obama's financial team will not understand?They are much smarter than me.If they also understand that the Chinese economy has three major crises due to unresolved two diseases and the use of the wrong medicine.Readers think Obama will send charcoal in a timely manner?Or is it worse?Don't even think about it, of course it's worse.What should he do if he is going to make trouble?Just three pairs of three, let's draw a simple diagram: For the exchange rate war to effectively impact a country’s economy, it must cooperate with the asset bubble. We discussed in detail in the previous chapter how the United States took advantage of the asset bubbles in Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Japan to launch an exchange rate war, thereby defeating the the economies of these countries. The United States originally planned to decide whether to list China as a currency manipulator on April 15, 2010. This trial date has been postponed for three months.The United States uses the trade war as a means to force China to negotiate with the United States on the exchange rate issue within the next six months.If the renminbi does not appreciate or the appreciation rate is not satisfactory to the United States, then the United States can impose a 27.5% tariff on all products exported from China to the United States.I think the real goal of the United States is the exchange rate war, and the trade war is the outpost of the exchange rate war, but the United States is not interested in the trade war, but in the exchange rate war.Readers, please think about which one of China's troika can the United States control?Of course it's an export.Therefore, whether the United States is aiming at the exchange rate war through the trade war, or the trade war itself, it is directly aimed at the export of our second carriage.Therefore, China's future must not be optimistic, because our second crisis - economic stagnation will be exacerbated by the double impact of trade and exchange rate wars on exports. How should we understand Obama's cost war and our country's third crisis—inflation?I recently heard the fallacies of some scholars, including Ha Jiming of CICC and others.Their remarks all have one thing in common, that is, the appreciation of the renminbi is beneficial to China.Because the form of China's manufacturing industry is simple rough processing of imported raw materials and imported machinery and equipment, if the renminbi appreciates, the raw materials and machinery and equipment will be cheaper, so it should be beneficial to China's manufacturing industry.Readers, please think about it, even the questions that these scholars can understand, can Americans not understand?If the Americans are bent on killing us, is it possible for them to let us take advantage of this?Readers guess what should Americans do?Of course, they should fight the cost war, and it is reasonable to raise the prices of international bulk materials in an all-round way, including agricultural and mining raw materials.In January 2010, the World Bank had already issued a warning that the prices of bulk materials may rise sharply this year.As a result, the price of imported materials has risen sharply, and the benefits of the rising RMB exchange rate have disappeared. From March to April 2010, the growth rate of imported iron ore rose from 30% to 100% within a few weeks. If it was not driven by a certain black hand, how could it be possible to rise so fast?Therefore, the purpose of the cost war not only offsets the benefits of exchange rate appreciation on imported raw materials, but also further worsens the third crisis in our country - inflation. In fact, the crisis is not terrible. The most terrible thing is the policy mistakes caused by our underestimation or even ignorance of the crisis.For example, we discussed in the second chapter of this book that under the impact of the US exchange rate war, the last straw that crushed Vietnam, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Japan was their own policy mistakes.For example, Japan lowered the interest rate to 2.5%, Hong Kong raised the interest rate to 280%, Thailand raised the interest rate to 13.25% to retain foreign investment, and Vietnam raised the interest rate to 14% to fight inflation. These are the policies of various countries. Mistakes, which punctured the bubble and caused a long-term economic depression.I hope we can learn economics from their mistakes so we don't repeat them. According to the stress test results conducted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce, if the RMB appreciates by more than 3%, say more than 5%, it will have a serious impact on our traditional export manufacturing industry. As a result, many factories in the Pearl River Delta had to close down.What if the exchange rate appreciates by 20%?The consequences are unimaginable.Therefore, the Chinese government cannot agree to a substantial appreciation of the renminbi at all. If we do not agree, then we must make concessions in other areas.I was reminded of a similar story that happened in Japan.Readers, do you still remember the third bomb dropped by the United States? - "Nikkei Put Options".Do readers find it strange that how could Wall Street companies issue such derivative financial instruments in Japan and blow up the Japanese bubble?This involves a well-planned conspiracy. The United States at the time asked Japan to open up its agriculture and service industries.But it is difficult for the Japanese to open up agriculture and service industries.Take agriculture as an example, because the seats of some Japanese parliamentarians are determined according to the number of farmers in a constituency.After urbanization, there are fewer farmers, but the essence of this electoral system has not changed.Farmers' voices sway the policy/force the Japanese government to open up agriculture very hard.For example, the Japanese government’s agricultural subsidies are very strange: the government uniformly buys cheap wheat from the international market, sells it at a high price in the domestic market, and then uses the money earned to buy rice at a high price from farmers, and then sells it domestically at a low price. marketed.In fact, Japan is the largest net importer of grain in the world, and the largest importer of grain to the United States.Readers may find it very strange, why does the Japanese government make such fuss?The interests of Japanese farmers are protected because it has a basic organization called "Nong Cooperative", which is half official and half civilian. This organization uses votes as weapons to coerce and lure the government to give them preferential policies, and then uses various preferential policies as weapons to coerce and lure them. Farmers hold together as a group to buy agricultural production equipment and data and sell agricultural products in the prescribed market at a uniform price.If the government hurts Japanese farmers by opening up U.S. agricultural imports, the inevitable result is the downfall of the cabinet.In addition, Japan's service industry is also difficult to open up. Taking the retail industry as an example, Japan's retail industry has a "Law of Large Stores", which limits the number of large supermarkets, which makes it difficult for foreign capital to enter Japan's retail industry. Don't Americans know that Japan cannot open up agriculture and service industries?Americans certainly do.Now that you know it, why ask the Japanese to open it up?This is the strategy of "Xiangzhuang dances the sword with the intention of Peigong".Originally, what the Americans wanted from the Japanese was the opening of the financial market, but they talked about Japan's agriculture and service industries.Of course, the Americans know that the Japanese agricultural cooperative system is there, and whoever hurts the interests of the agricultural cooperative will have to step down. Therefore, the Americans have been obsessed with agricultural issues first. In fact, they have been obsessed with Japanese manufacturing as early as the 1980s In the late 1970s, the United States asked Japan to open up imports of American beef and citrus before the industrial issue.Wait until the Japanese say, let's take a step back, shall we?The Americans said, okay, then I won't force you to open up agriculture, you can open up finance for me. The Japanese have no choice but to open up the financial industry.So how did the Japanese agree to liberalize the financial sector?Because of the inflated confidence of the Japanese people, they feel that they are a chaebol system that is unparalleled in the world. There are big enterprise groups behind the big banks, and there are big banks under the big enterprise groups. Similarly, all insurance companies and securities companies have big money. Plutocratic background.For example, the American "Business Weekly" ranked the commercial banks in the world, and the top five were all Japanese banks.Under the influence of this illusory ranking, the Japanese feel particularly good, just like us Chinese today, because our four major banks are also among the top few in the world.But what we and the Japanese don't know is that the financial war is based on level, not ranking.In this regard, we are as bad as Japan. Of course, the Americans are quite good at persuading the Japanese.The Americans brought up the three theories of Japan's opening up of the financial market. We found that these three theories are similar to those peddled by some so-called scholars, such as Chen Zhiwu, in China. The first is that financial development is beneficial to the economy, so regulation must be relaxed.Americans brag that the financing model of listing and corporate bonds on Wall Street in the United States is more efficient than your traditional Japanese model.Even when it comes to stock trading, our traders are more skilled than yours, and there are calculation models behind them.So, you should open me up to join your exchange and allow me to do investment banking.In addition, the United States also analyzes the Japanese chaebol model. What do Americans say?It is said that you are setting random prices internally, how can you be efficient?In fact, these words that sound reasonable are only used to fool the Japanese. What the Americans really want to do is to hope that Japan will relax regulation and allow the introduction of some financial products that the Japanese do not understand, so that the Americans can make a lot of money. These theories sounded quite reasonable to the Japanese, so they agreed to connect the U.S. Treasury Department and Japan’s Ministry of Finance to form an institution—the Japan-U.S. Yen and Dollar Committee.And very coincidentally, the Ministry of Finance of Japan was originally only responsible for internal budget and auditing. Like our Ministry of Finance, there is not a single diplomat in it, and there are not many people who understand international finance. Those who are directly involved in foreign negotiations have no idea what's going on. What is the direct impact?For example, in April 1984, the restrictions on domestic investment in Japan were relaxed; in December 1984, the underwriting of yen bonds was opened to foreign financial institutions; in April 1985, innovative financial products were approved; finally on October 5, 1987 On the 1st, the Ministry of Finance implemented a series of financial liberalization measures, including the most important margin financing and securities lending. The second is the theory of balance.The Americans said, look at the United States bought a lot of things from Japan, so Japan has obtained huge foreign exchange reserves.But this reserve was not used to buy American things, but was used to buy US treasury bonds.Too much money to buy treasury bonds will definitely affect the price and interest rate of treasury bonds, and won't it disrupt the economic and financial order of the United States.If you Japanese are not willing to reform the exchange rate, then you should buy more American things.However, the United States does not produce iron ore or oil. After all, the agriculture and service industries are doing well, and you are still not open.Then, you should buy more American stocks, real estate, and financial products.The Japanese are very obedient. On September 27, 1989, Sony acquired the stock of CBS in the United States; on October 31, Mitsubishi announced the acquisition of the Rockefeller Center real estate project.So, what financial products did the United States sell to Japan?This is the stock index futures sold to the Japanese in 1988, and the stock index options sold to the Japanese again in 1989. The third is that financial development is related to international competitiveness, so we must persist in opening up.Moreover, the Americans spoke very beautifully. The "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" on November 11, 1983 disclosed the details of a negotiation afterwards. "The central pillars of the Japanese and American economies should be shifted to finance, services and other fields. In these fields, the United States has superior competitiveness. Among the developed countries, only Japan has the hope of becoming such a country. Therefore, the United States urges Japan to open its capital market as soon as possible so that Japan The future will also be fully rewarded." Look at this concept - "Japan-US economy", which is more intimate than the current G2 concept, it is almost indistinguishable from each other, and it is like an old friend sharing successful experience Like the concept of "Central America" ​​that some of our ignorant scholars are talking about.Specifically, the Americans wrote a long report through the Japan-U.S. Yen and Dollar Committee on the internationalization of the yen, the liberalization of domestic interest rates, the diversification of financial markets, the integration of domestic and foreign markets, and credit Provided Japan with a full range of advice on issues such as social order. What is the direct impact? On July 5, 1983, Nomura Securities, the largest securities firm in Japan, and Morgan Stanley, an American investment bank, reached a cooperation intention to establish an investment trust company, and then the company was actually established on March 25, 1984, but the Ministry of Finance of Japan did not approve.As compensation, the Ministry of Finance of Japan approved Morgan Stanley to establish a Tokyo branch in 1984 and granted a securities business license. However, at this time, because Morgan Stanley was not yet a member of the exchange, specific transactions had to be made through the trading seats of Japanese securities companies. to operate. What is even more unimaginable is the access of exchange members, because this means that American financial speculators can directly enter the Japanese stock market.However, on November 29, 1985, the Tokyo Stock Exchange approved the participation of six foreign securities companies, including Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, and then Morgan Stanley took the lead in formally starting securities trading in 1986. In 1987 and 1989, he successively obtained the membership of the second and third largest stock exchanges in Japan - the Osaka Exchange and the Nagoya Exchange.Among them, the role of the Osaka Exchange is the most important, because stock index futures and stock index options are traded in this stock market.Why do you say unimaginable?Because this is an issue that touches Japan's political system, you must know that Japan's Tokyo Stock Exchange originally had a political donation foundation, and the funds in it all came from various exchange members, and Japan's "Political Fund Regulation Law" clearly Contributions from foreign sources are prohibited.Such a difficult matter was resolved so quickly. Apart from the clear support of the high-level, what other reason could there be?In fact, the Japanese cabinet minister did send the head of the Japan Securities Bureau, Fujino Koichi, directly to Washington to solve this problem. You know, these are just opportunities to compete with Japanese brokerages on the exchange, not opportunities to snatch investment customers.随后在1987年，摩根士丹利首先获得了这个资格，成立了摩根士丹利投资咨询有限公司，这样摩根士丹利就可以在日本发售和管理基金，用日本人的钱来玩弄日本股市。到这个阶段华尔街基本获准全面进入日本的金融市场操作金融工具。 “轰炸三部曲”第一部曲融资融券、第二部曲股指期货/期权和第三部曲华尔街获准进入日本操作于是完成。现在就等着美国人来炸毁日本的泡沫了。 好了，我们谈一下“轰炸三部曲”运作的要点。 第一，我们首先谈谈如何利用股指期货/期权赚钱。股指期货怎么赚钱——首先，摩根士丹利找到日本保险公司，然后跟他商量：你看现在日经指数是100点，要是下个月是120点，我就给你20元，要是150点，我就给你50元，依此类推，不封顶，反过来，要是下个月是60点，你就给我40元，依此类推，也不封顶，你愿不愿意跟我赌一把？日本人一听就笑了，傻瓜，日经指数还会跌成负数了？实际上那不就是我盈利是无限的，而亏损是有限的。而且，日本人觉得摩根士丹利肯定是疯了，日经指数还需要赌么？肯定是一路上涨啦！所以，日本人说要赌就赌大的，就这个合约签一万份，而且签上一年怎么样？摩根士丹利说：好，但是每笔合约我要10元手续费。日本人说：成交。 摩根士丹利当然不傻，他们签完这单生意就立刻回美国和欧洲，和高盛等著名投行联合行动打击日本人。他们说什么呢？日本人疯了。一批资深研究员发表重磅报告指出：日本的实体经济只是表面上在高速增长，但很显然，它增长的速度远比不上股市的膨胀，更重要的是这种高速增长的背后是实体经济和各种制成品的毛利在迅速下降，剔除房地产和金融投机的收入，日本一些企业的真正利润甚至已经不如20世纪70年代。显然，这些国际投行是要制造一种恐慌和怀疑的情绪。 然后以高盛为首的投行带着这份报告马不停蹄地找到世界各地投资日本股市的基金，就问一句话：难道你不担心你在日本投资的安全么？所有的基金经理看完报告的结论都是：当然担心，我想对冲风险怎么办呢？这些投行说：没事儿，我们做这个生意好不好？你看现在日经指数是100点，要是下个月跌到60点，我就给你40元，依此类推。反过来，要是下个月是120点，你就给我20元。当然由于有一定的风险，所以每份合约只要买就立即先送给你5元。基金经理就算了一笔账：还能对冲自己手里的股票组合风险，还能免费捞到钱，划算。 与此同时，无论最后日经指数是多少，因为这两个赌局刚好对冲掉。假设日经指数由100跌到了60，那么日本人赔给美国投行40元。而美国投行刚好拿这笔钱赔给基金公司，所以根本不亏。但是美国投行参加了日本人的赌局收了10元，而美国投行要求基金参加赌局，所以付了5元，美国投行还赚了5元。只需要把发行规模不断做大就能财源广进。 日经指数看跌期权怎么赚钱——和前面的例子类似，美国投行说：你看现在日经指数是100点，我们来参加你的赌局，美国人赌股价跌，日本人你赌股价涨。Yes or no?怎么赌呢？美国人说由日本人坐庄，我们一参加赌局就给日本人10块的入场费，不管我们玩不玩，入场费都是日本人的。如果指数涨到了100点以上，我们就不玩了。如果从100点跌到60点的话，日本人就赔我40块。如果100点跌到30点的话呢，日本人就赔我70块。 这些投行又找到了基金经理这么告诉他们，你看现在日经指数是100点，你来参加我的赌局，你赌股价跌。怎么赌呢？你一参加赌局就给我15块的入场费，不管你玩不玩，入场费都是我的。如果指数涨到了100点以上，你就不玩了。如果从100点跌到60点的话，我就赔你40块。如果100点跌到30点的话呢，我就赔你70块。 这两个赌局刚好对冲掉。假设日经指数由100点跌到了60点，那么日本人赔给美国投行40元。而美国投行刚好拿这笔钱赔给基金公司，所以根本不亏。但是美国投行参加了日本人的赌局付了10元，而基金公司参加美国投行的赌局付了15元，美国投行还赚了5元。 第二，融资融券制度就是打压股价的必备武器。 首先问一个问题，为什么这么多人愿意买呢？因为日本之前一系列的金融开放使得基金这时获得了一个免费的提款机。什么提款机呢？首先，日本1987年批准了类似我们的融资融券的制度，这样，这些基金可以跟日本券商借股票过来卖股票。举例而言，你向日本证券公司借出一张股票用今天100元价格卖掉，明天等股价跌到了60元，你再买回这张股票还给日本券商。由于你是100元卖的，60元买的，所以你就赚了40元。而如果大家都这么干的话，那股价就会应声滑落。所以融资融券制度就是打压股价的必备武器。 第三，外资必须成为交易所会员才能操作融资融券。请注意如果东京交易所1987年不批准外资券商成为会员，他们就不会有这种资格操作融资融券，因此也就无法打压日本股市。 实际上，图3-2就把股指期货和股指期权的作用描绘得最清楚了。三个灰度字表示出来的都是海外推出了日经指数期货或者期权，第一次是在1986年9月的新加坡证券交易所，第二次是在1990年1月摩根和高盛等美国投行在美国的场外交易市场（OTC）推出日经指数看跌期权，第三次是在1990年9月芝加哥商品交易所推出日经指数期货及期权。第一次是将近20%的下挫，第二次是将近30%的下挫，第三次是将近40%的下挫。 而这之前的1987年摩根成为大阪交易所的会员，同时摩根获批成立投资咨询有限公司。随后的1988年大阪交易所推出日经指数期货，1989年大阪交易所推出了日经指数期权。从而为摩根等在日本国内布局铺平了道路，你看很巧合，这三个时间点都恰好对应了日经指数大涨，实际上，他们就是要把日本国内做得满是泡沫，然后才能反向做空，这样才能玩儿转上面提到的“提款机”策略。当然，随着日本股指的崩盘，购买了看跌股指期货和期权的美国投行和投资人赚得盆满钵满。 伴随着“日经指数看跌期权”从1990年1月开始上市热销不到一个月，日本股市就已经彻底地土崩瓦解了，那种争相抛售的景象如同末日来临一般。 当然，随着日本股指的崩盘，购买了看空股指期货/期权的投资者赚得盆满钵满。股票市场的崩溃率先波及到日本的银行业和保险企业，因为是它们向美国的各家投行们卖出的日经指数期权，大批的银行和保险企业出现支付危机。在金融业出现危机后，日经指数进一步下跌，从而带动了实体企业的股价跟随下跌，日本股市的股灾就此一发而不可收了。当然，日本的股灾无可避免地冲击了楼市，也造成日本楼市的崩盘，到现在都没复苏。 所以，我们离日本当年还有多远？也许只有半步。对照日本股灾的“轰炸三部曲”：第一，我们在2010年3月31日开始了融资融券；第二，2010年4月1日号开始股指期货的交易；第三，我们还不允许外资券商成为交易所会员。因此，美国必须透过各种办法，逼迫我们开放外资成为交易所会员。只要我们再稀里胡涂后退半步就会落入狙击圈，这才是盖特纳和奥巴马的可怕之处。 如果各位读者都看懂了的话，你们认为美国逼迫我们人民币升值的目的是什么，他们明明知道我们很难让人民币升值20%！其目的就和当初对付日本一样，拿着农业和服务业说事，他们就是拿着人民币汇率说事，其实他们的真正目的是希望我们开放金融市场，允许外资成为交易所会员，以完成轰炸我们的第三部曲，因为我们从2010年3月31日开始了融资融券，2010年4月16日开始了股指期货。 2010年4月8日，美国财政部长盖特纳在结束了两天访问印度的行程后，本应直接返回美国，他却突然改变行程，临时到访北京，在首都国际机场贵宾区与中国副总理王岐山，开了一个多小时的“闭门会议”。中美双方都分别发表了语焉不详而且是避重就轻的声明： 美国财政部随后在一份简短的声明中表示：“双方就美中经济关系、全球经济形势以及即将到来的第二次美中战略与经济对话等相关问题，交换了意见。” 会议前，中国外交部发言人姜瑜未向媒体透露会议议程，也是同样说：“双方将就中美关系以及共同关心的话题交换意见。” 美国财政部发言人安德鲁？威廉姆斯在会议前也未向媒体透露会议内容，更拒绝确认人民币汇率问题将是双方讨论的议题之一。 那么，盖特纳究竟获得了什么呢？跟中国达成如此的默契？我们看看海外的人民币汇率就明白了，也就是所谓的海外一年期人民币兑美元的远期汇率（见图3-3）。 这个图越往下，一美元能换的人民币越少，所以越往下走，人民币的汇率越高。那么，大家看到的这个一路往下走的趋势，就是所谓的人民币升值预期，虽然我们国内的外汇市场人民币兑美元汇率没有大变动，但是海外的市场因为是给华尔街的金融炒家自由交易的，所以这些炒家如果觉得人民币会升值，这个曲线就会往下走，很明显，自从美国对中国施压以来，人民币升值的预期就非常明显。 可是神奇的就是2010年4月8日，王岐山在北京会见了美国现任财政部长盖特纳，远期汇率收盘价6.61，其后人民币就开始贬值。远期人民币为什么要贬值呢？因为华尔街认为，美国已经取得了美国想要的东西了，因此人民币不需要升值了，甚至贬值也无所谓了，美国人到底得到了什么？ 连奥巴马的表态都非常客气，2010年4月13日奥巴马与胡锦涛在华盛顿核安全峰会的间隙进行了一个半小时的会谈。“总统重申了他的观点，就是中国迈向一个更为市场化的汇率机制，对全球经济持续、均衡复苏非常重要……”奥巴马政府首席亚洲事务顾问杰夫？巴德（Jeff Bader）表示。同一天，盖特纳更是破天荒地说什么呢？“中国转向灵活的汇率形成体制具有重要意义，但是否调整汇率政策是中国政府自己的选择。” 可是你看看国内外的主流学者，却比奥巴马和盖特纳还凶，一边倒地认为要人民币升值。其中比较值得我们关切的是央行货币委员会的两位学术委员——李稻葵呼吁人民币小幅度升值，而周其仁呼吁一步到位。 问题是美国人为什么这么照顾我们呢？杰夫？巴德补充的话提醒了我们：奥巴马还就中国在市场准入方面的壁垒“表达了关切”。盖特纳怎么跟美国国内表态呢？他说：“美国政府将力促中国政府开放市场，并秉持公平交易规则。” 那么，我们究竟答应什么了呢？2010年4月13日消息，国务院发布《国务院关于进一步做好利用外资工作的若干意见》。 第一，鼓励外商投资设立创业投资企业，积极利用私募股权投资基金，完善退出机制，而且明确说支持A股上市公司引入境内外战略投资者。换句话说，我们允许外资名正言顺地收购中国企业，再在中国资本市场高价套现。 第二，支持符合条件的外商投资企业境内公开发行股票、发行企业债和中期票据。换句话说，允许外国企业直接在国内上市圈钱。 第三，总投资（包括增资）3亿美元以下的完全交给地方核准。换句话说，外国企业可以一步步地增资最终实现控股。既然外国企业都可以在资本市场公然翻云覆雨了，那么华尔街的金融炒家直接成为中国交易所的会员还远么？要知道，现在相当一部分的券商已经是合资企业了，比如高盛高华、瑞银证券、华欧国际、瑞信方正、中德证券、海际大和、华鑫证券等。虽然这个还只是意见，还没成为正式的细则，但是这样增资会是什么后果呢？ 不过，这个《意见》已经清楚地说明我们中国即将对外资开放资本市场，也就是只差半步就完成了第三部曲，这半步就是合资券商还没有获得自营业务牌照，就是说他们还不能拿自己的资本对中国股市上下其手，而纯外资的金融机构目前也不许成为交易所的会员。然而，我们不要忘了，狙击日本的“轰炸三部曲”在中国完成组建，这才是美国人真正的目的。可是，由于我们太多的主流学者在呼吁人民币升值，甚至包括央行货币委员会的两个学术委员周其仁和李稻葵。即便是周其仁最近改变了论调，转而强调币值稳定的意义，可是，他们营造的讨论环境仍然是人民币汇率改革势在必行，他们却忘了美国是“项庄舞剑，意在沛公”，表面上对汇率制度有意见，实际上是想以此为由逼迫我们同意全面对外资开放金融市场。而且我们政府有个习惯性的动作，那就是喜欢听体制内学者的建议，虽然他们的建议大部分都是错的。因此我更担心我们不但在“轰炸三部曲”方面让步了，我们人民币搞不好还是要升值，那可真是赔了夫人又折兵。 相对优势告诉我们，当我们买进更便宜的进口商品时，可能会使国内的同胞失业，但同时我们也能帮助别的、甚至更多的同胞找到工作。假设我们生活在一个完全封闭的经济体中，不做什么外贸。后来，外贸开放了，需要做许多调整。如果国内的钢材售价比世界市场上的高，那么制造商就得降价，甚至是解雇工人。国内的许多其他企业都是钢材用户而不是卖家——从相对优势的角度核算，就知道这些企业从钢材降价中的受益远远大于钢铁厂家的损失。反过来，如果开放前的钢材价格比世界市场上的低，那么制造商就会得利——他们多得的远大于国内钢材用户损失的，此时，就业率也会上升。 不管遭遇何种批评，相对优势始终在发挥作用。在全世界分工合作，让包括富裕国家在内的所有人都变得更为富足。比较来看，发展中国家受益更多，这是真的。其实，所有国家都有沾光，贫富鸿沟也在缩小，因为穷国发展得更快。富甲一方可能感觉穷点儿了，因为收入差距缩小后，大家都有钱购买贵重消费品和收藏品。抛开主观感受不谈，富人并未损失财富，相对优势也不会突然制造出赢家和输家，它带来的其实是“共赢”。是的，全球市场让富人的生活更加舒适富足了。 相比之下，穷人会如何呢？穷人会有资产，也许那只是一头牲畜。可把牲畜送到国外卖个高价是不现实的，必须在当地卖，市场上给啥价就卖啥价。如果穷人想买些能提高自身生产率的东西，也会受限——得在当地买，得付高价。如果穷人真的买了进口商品，所付关税也往往高于富人购买奢侈品支付的关税。在所有国家都是如此。譬如，美国进步政策研究所的研究显示：穷人和中产阶级购买的进口商品——衣服、鞋子等——平均关税率是10.5%，奢侈品的进口关税率却只有0.8%。 归根结底，全球利伯维尔场是有缺陷的，因为人无完人，可是它依然能给穷人带来美好的希望。经济学家保罗？克鲁格曼高声批判利润制度和其操纵者，但他依旧认为：不管出于何种用意，反对全球贸易都会让穷人更穷。 本文摘选自［美］亨特·刘易斯（Hunter Lewis）的《财富的是与非：关于富人和穷人的经济学》