Chapter 3 Chapter 02 Asian Bubble Wars: How the United States Made Bubbles and Hijacked Emerging Markets
The U.S. approach to attacking Asia.
Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Japan, etc. have all been severely attacked. Can China be alone?
How will the United States launch a currency war to attack China?The sniper tactics of US imperialism can be said to be ever-changing and emerge in endlessly. I think it is best to start with the US sniping other Asian countries and regions. We can learn from it.
First of all, let's do a very interesting exercise together, a simple arithmetic.Generally speaking, at the beginning, Asian countries were poor countries, and they could only earn 1 yuan a year. What is the use of this 1 yuan?Just enough food and clothing, right?But after the reform and opening up, we have become rich, and our 1 yuan has become 10 yuan.According to the textbook theory, what should we do?We should make two investments, 5 yuan is invested in the stock market and the property market, and the other 5 yuan is put in the bank as a deposit, ready to invest in the real economy.What is an ideal situation?That is, the 5 yuan we invested in the real economy first turned into 10 yuan. Stocks and real estate just reflect this fundamental, so they also rose from 5 yuan to 10 yuan, and the entire social wealth became 20 yuan. .Then, the 10 yuan in the real economy creates more wealth and becomes 20 yuan, and the virtual economy is also 20 yuan, so our wealth becomes 40 yuan, how perfect!According to the textbook theory, this is the economic growth model that China and even other Asian countries should pursue.
Then let me ask you, if it is really so ideal, in terms of a country as big as China, or as many countries in Asia, if they all grow according to this model, wouldn’t they surpass the United States? ?The economic growth of the United States is very poor, only 2%. If Asian countries are integrated and each country grows at a rate of 10%, how big a threat is the whole of Asia to the United States?Put yourself in your shoes again, do you think Americans can’t understand even Professor Lang’s two brushes?If Americans can also understand, what do you think Americans will do?Are the Americans sending charcoal in a timely manner or adding trouble?Or is it optimistic?You tell me, what reason do they have to see our Asian countries succeed?So what should he do?I think the United States should not let this happen, because the threat to him is too great, and he should stir up asset bubbles.
According to the analysis and forecast of relevant United Nations agencies, China's contribution to global economic growth reached 22% in 2008 and further increased to 50% in 2009.The Asian Development Bank also released its latest forecast report on December 15, 2009, pointing out that China's economic growth will reach 8.2% in 2009 and 8.9% in 2010.The 14 developing economies in East Asia will also grow by 4.2% in 2009 and 6.8% in 2010.At this rate of development, Asia will make a major contribution to the recovery of the global economy.However, what is intriguing is that Asia has not lacked economic miracles of high-speed growth in history, but it has also suffered painful bubble blows time and time again. So, what is the reason for the violent fluctuations in the Asian economy?
The bubble war is about to start. Let’s continue with the previous example. The 10 yuan in our hands will be invested in two investments, 5 yuan will be invested in the stock market and the real estate market, and the other 5 yuan will be invested in the bank to invest in the real economy. The sum is 10 yuan. dollars.That is, on the eve of your plan to invest 5 yuan in the real economy, they immediately raise your property market and stock market to 15 yuan, and you have not invested in the real economy at this time, and you still have 5 yuan in bank deposits, so you Look, the total is 20 yuan. On the surface, it looks the same as what was said before. You also think you are rich, because you are a stupid person, you think you are rich.Do you know what the next step is?That is when you see how easy it is to make money, you can earn 15 yuan without doing anything, even without real investment , so the stock market and property market became 20 yuan.Why should I use this 5 yuan to set up a factory? It’s too hard. I produce every day and I’m busy until 12 o’clock every day.Well, then you have no growth, because you have no real economy.What is the next step?Guess everyone, how much money will you make if you break the bubble?It becomes 5 yuan, and it returns to the original level, because you have no physical production at all, and the physical investment is still zero for so many years.Finally, you find that this is your result, you are not 40 yuan, you are still 5 yuan. Asset bubbles are the basis of exchange rate wars.Does your country want to develop?I will first push up your stock market and real estate market. After the bubble occurs, a lot of money from the real economy will flow into the virtual market. In the end, foreign capital withdraws and the bubble bursts. As a result, you only have 5 yuan left.In order to explain this sniping process in detail, I use Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Japan as examples to explain the four different sniping techniques of the United States. For Asia, which is poised to once again act as the engine of the global economy today, the stories of yesterday are still fresh in the memory. In 1997, a financial turmoil that started in Thailand and eventually spread to South Korea and other neighboring Asian countries and regions caused the collapse of the monetary systems and stock markets of Southeast Asian countries, violent turmoil in the international foreign exchange market, and even Russia was dragged into the financial crisis.The Asian financial turmoil became another major economic event after the economic crisis in the 1930s.So, can Lang Xianping's bubble war formula explain the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?
First look at Thailand.Note that if you only earn 1 yuan in this country, there is no fun. It must be after you accumulate wealth to 10 yuan in addition to food and clothing.If you have always been so poor, like in Africa, stop playing, it’s meaningless to play, and you will be cheated a lot, what’s so good about earning only 1 yuan?If you want to eat, you can't let you starve to death.It must be at the stage of earning 10 yuan to have the value of playing.So let’s put it this way, why the United States and the European Union like to hear about reform and opening up and economic growth so much, because only after growth and opening up can they reach this point, can they get rid of extreme poverty, get rid of food and clothing, and enter the stage of accumulation, so This is why Western countries are very concerned about the economic growth of Asian countries, and they are very encouraging, even through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to give Asian countries a lot of loans, I hope you will grow, from 1 yuan to 10 One dollar, this is the moment to trick you.Let's take a look at Thailand first. When did Thailand change from 1 yuan to 10 yuan?That is, during the 11 years from 1974 to 1985, due to the continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the Thai baht was pegged to the U.S. dollar and depreciated accordingly. Because of the depreciation of the Thai baht, it was beneficial to Thailand’s exports, and the rapid growth of exports made Thailand’s GDP during this period The annual growth rate is close to 10%.After reaching 10%, wait to be sniped. 10%, do you feel familiar with this figure, isn't it the annual growth rate of the Chinese economy?Good similar data, which is why in addition to the "Four Tigers", there will also be "Four Little Tigers" in Asia. These countries and regions basically have such a growth model. Thailand has come to this point, with an annual growth rate of more than 8%, which is regarded as an Asian miracle. From 1986 to 1994, the export growth rate of Thailand's manufacturing industry was 30% per year, which was exactly the same as that of China.During this period, the proportion of manufacturing exports to total exports rose from 36% to 81%, the proportion of manufacturing to GDP increased from 22% to 29%, the proportion of agricultural exports dropped from 47% to 13%, and agricultural output value accounted for The proportion of GDP has dropped from 21% to 11%. The overall data looks very ideal, because Thailand has become rich and its industry has grown. It has changed from 1 yuan to 10 yuan. Therefore, Thai people naturally take 5 yuan in bank deposits to invest in the real economy, and the other 5 yuan to buy stocks and properties.OK, so what's the next step?That is to start making foam.We suddenly discovered that the Thai government actually encouraged foreign capital to enter Thailand in the 1990s. Our data shows that they did two things: the first is to allow both Thai banks and foreign banks to absorb US dollar deposits from abroad to Thailand Come spend; the second is even allowing foreigners to borrow and borrow baht freely.From 1990 to 1996, Thailand slowly opened its capital account and finally fully opened it.By 1996, foreign capital could come in to buy stocks and real estate at will. What is more frightening?Foreign capital can withdraw from real estate and stock markets at will. Once foreign capital is allowed to enter and exit at will, problems are bound to arise.Since 1990, a large number of foreign capitals have entered Thailand to drive up the price, from 5 yuan to 15 yuan. Let's see what similar data tell us.A large amount of foreign capital flows into the stock market and real estate market, causing stock prices and real estate prices to soar, forming asset price bubbles. In 1993, foreign investment in Thai stocks was 3 billion U.S. dollars, which doubled from 1994 to 1995, and a total of 6 billion U.S. dollars was invested in Thai stocks.A large amount of foreign capital has also invested in the real estate industry. From 1992 to 1996, a total of 755,000 houses were built in Bangkok.What is the residential vacancy rate? 25% to 30%, what is the commercial vacancy rate? 14%.A large number of loans for housing construction caused the quality of loans to decline, so the crisis began to appear. Thailand's index reached a record high of 624 points, similar to the trend in China from May 2005 to October 2007.During this period, Thailand’s economy was still in a stage of substantial growth, so bank credit expanded rapidly, but as I told you earlier, a large amount of funds did not flow to efficient and high value-added production sectors, but to high-risk real estate markets and the stock market.What it does exactly happens according to the example I mentioned earlier. Until the end of the 1980s, Thailand has been implementing a relatively strict foreign exchange management system.Since the 1990s, Thailand has launched a series of financial reform measures in order to attract foreign investment.For example, in 1991, foreign exchange restrictions on capital account transactions began to be reduced. In 1992, it was opened to foreign capital, allowing domestic investors to obtain low-interest foreign funds directly through banks. In 1994, the limit of foreign currency that can be carried in and out of the country was relaxed, and foreign banks were allowed to set up branches in various cities in Thailand.While implementing financial liberalization, Thailand has not established a sound financial management system.Facing the wide-open Thailand, what did the influx of foreign funds do?
Moreover, Thailand is very open to foreign investment. A large amount of foreign capital has poured into Thailand, and a considerable part of it has also entered the real estate industry.The proportion of fixed investment in GDP was less than 25% before 1989, rose to 30% after 1989, and rose to 42.5% after 1996, but it was not as high as ours. Ours was 67% in 2009, and theirs was only 42%. There was a financial crisis. This is Thailand. Property prices and stock prices are already unbearable, and they have risen sharply, that is, to the stage of 15 yuan. What are a lot of useful social resources going to do?Stocks, property speculation to go.Because you don’t engage in the real economy, all the money you keep in the bank is used to speculate in real estate and stocks. A lot of bank credit has deteriorated, and investment in the real economy has become zero. Now the whole of Thailand is waiting for the next step to change from 20 yuan to 5 yuan. money.So how to snipe Thailand? Due to the decline in loan quality, the financial crisis began. By June 1996, the non-performing assets of various banks in Thailand had reached 35.8%. In August 1997, international rating agencies believed that 25% of Thailand's loans could not pay interest. up.Therefore, foreign capital began to withdraw.Because foreign capital saw the risk, as a result of the withdrawal, from May 1996 to May 1997, Thailand's stock index fell by 60%. At the last step, Thailand's property market also plummeted.Well, what's more frightening?Thailand has encountered a serious trade deficit at this moment. Why is there a serious trade deficit?Why did Thailand do well in the past because of the appreciation of the US dollar?Because of the long-term depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the result of their depreciation made exports drive the economy, but I don’t know why, the U.S. dollar began to appreciate during this period, around 1995. How could it be such a coincidence? After the appreciation in 1995, Thailand's exports failed. In 1996, the growth rate of Thailand's exports dropped from 24% to 3%.Therefore, in 1995, Thailand's trade deficit was as high as 1?One hundred million U.S. dollars.Thailand is facing two dilemmas: the first dilemma is the trade deficit; the second dilemma is the massive outflow of foreign capital.Guess what choice the Thai government made?The Thai government actually gave up the trade deficit and decided to try its best to retain foreign capital. How to retain it?That is to provide higher bank interest rates, hoping that foreign capital can return to Thailand and deposit it in Thai banks.They did such a stupid thing!How high are the interest rates?By 1996, Thailand's interest rate was as high as 13.25%, the highest in the entire Asian region.It was high interest rates that contributed to the Asian financial crisis that started in Thailand. The Thai financial crisis was the trigger for the 1997 Asian financial crisis.Therefore, understanding the Thai financial crisis is considered to be the starting point for understanding the Asian financial crisis. Since 1997, economists from various countries have explored the root causes of Thailand's financial crisis from different perspectives and put forward many important points of view.Lang Xianping believes that the bubble war is the chief culprit for breaking down Thailand's economy, and the reason why the bubble finally burst in 1997 was the huge non-performing loans caused by asset inflation represented by real estate.How did these non-performing loans trigger the financial crisis, and what was the last straw that crushed Thailand's economy?
Do you know what's going on?At this moment, the decline in exports has resulted in a trade deficit, which has led to an economic recession. Why don't you come to boost the economy?Are you raising interest rates?Wouldn't the result of raising interest rates be to suppress the economy?It is more expensive for companies to borrow money, and even if they can't borrow money, they will not borrow, so business operations will be more difficult, so what will happen in the end?Many companies have no choice but to go abroad to find foreign banks to borrow money. Therefore, in August 1997, the Bank of Thailand had 90 billion U.S. dollars in foreign debt, of which 73 billion was borrowed by the private sector from foreign banks. Why?Because the banks in this country can't borrow money, it's not that they can't borrow money, because they dare not borrow because the interest rate is too high, aren't you hitting your own economy?In the end, the real economy is zero. Not only is it zero, you are still fighting it, which is stupid enough.What was the final result? The whole country only has 5 yuan left. It used to be 10 yuan. After the bubble became 20 yuan, it is now returned to its original shape and becomes 5 yuan.So who took the difference, from 20 yuan to 15 yuan to 5 yuan?take a guess.Soros et al.How did you take it?That is through the deregulation of foreign exchange in Thailand.A large amount of hot money flowed into Thailand, raising property prices and stock prices. At the highest point, they were sold to Thai people, and then they withdrew collectively. Thailand collapsed, and at the highest point, they took away all 15 yuan from the Thai people.So today the Thai people only have 5 yuan left.Who is Soros?Let me tell you, he is a pawn of the US government. He is definitely not an individual act. Unless it is an act of the state, where is there such a large amount of funds?Where is there such a great power?Moreover, Thailand was not the only country that was attacked. After Thailand collapsed, other Asian countries also collapsed. What happened in Thailand in the end? After three years of high volatility, the Thai stock market began to fall like an avalanche in April 1996, from 545 points at the beginning of April 1996 to 44.029 points at the end of August 1998. At the bottom, the cumulative decline was close to 90%. The stock investment fund companies in Thailand were reduced from dozens before the crisis to three, and finally only one remained. More than 95% of the other fund companies were all bankrupt and liquidated. This is Thailand, the whole country bankrupted. You see, on the eve of the financial turmoil, that is, the day before the attack, the backlog of real estate funds in Thailand was 30 billion U.S. dollars, and the backlog of houses was 850,000 units, which would take 7 years to digest. The vacancy rate of office buildings and shops was as high as 20%. In 1996, the amount of domestic housing loans increased by more than 5 times, and real estate loans accounted for 50% of the total bank loans, much higher than that of neighboring countries.That's the tragedy I'm going to tell you, that's what happened before and after the collapse. After talking about Thailand, the next poor brother is called Vietnam.Vietnam is the same country as us, a socialist country, also feels very good, thinking that reform and opening up are too easy, and they will develop if they open up and open up casually. Like Thailand, Vietnam has experienced the same ups and downs, and we all have a habit of not learning. We never learn from Thailand's lessons about what is called the bubble war, so I am here to tell you the story of Vietnam, See how they repeat the same mistakes. First of all, from 1 yuan to 10 yuan, so what does Vietnam need?Reform and opening up like ours is needed.What was the result of reform and opening up?In the 12 years from 1994 to 2005, Vietnam's information industry developed rapidly, with an average growth rate of 30%. From 1986 to 2006, the Vietnamese government established 24 high-tech parks to focus on the development of the IT industry. Therefore, after the end of the Vietnam War On the occasion of the 31st anniversary, Bill?When Mr. Gates visited Vietnam for the first time, he predicted that Vietnam would become a top software outsourcing country. The Vietnamese were very complacent after hearing this, because Vietnam, like us, likes to hear the flattering words of foreigners the most. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir met Soros in Hong Kong. He strongly condemned Soros's actions to the Asian economy.When Soros responded to the condemnation, he only said one sentence: "If it weren't for us, someone would still do it. Flies don't bite seamless eggs, and the market leaves room for speculation. It is the government's fault." Throughout the Second World In the history of Asian economic development after the World War II, bubble wars have been staged many times. Then, why this not new method has been tried repeatedly in Asia, and which countries have suffered major blows in the bubble wars?
In the past 10 years, Vietnam's average annual economic growth rate has been around 7.4%. In 2005, Vietnam's economic growth rate was as high as 8.4 percentage points, making it the second fastest growing country in Asia, only behind China. On November 7, 2006, Vietnam officially became the 150th member of the WTO. In 2007, Vietnam's economic growth rate was as high as 8.5%, almost the same as that of China.At this stage, the wealth of the Vietnamese has become 10 yuan. As long as this stage is reached, it is waiting for the bubble war. Foreign direct investment in Vietnam rose from 4 billion US dollars in 2005 to 7.6 billion US dollars in 2006. By 2007, Vietnam absorbed foreign investment as high as 20.3 billion US dollars. Foreign capital began to flow in. Why?Because they are ready to make foam. During this period, Vietnam could have invested 5 yuan in bank deposits into the real economy, and the situation at that time was very good. For example, South Korea’s Samsung Electronics stated that it would transfer some assembly factories from China to Vietnam in the future.Taiwan's Formosa Plastics moved its original plan to build a factory in mainland China to Vietnam.Nike placed a lot of OEM orders originally given to enterprises in Guangdong, China, to Vietnam. It not only expanded the production lines of four processing plants in Vietnam on a large scale, but also invested more than 16 million US dollars to build a processing plant, and planned to build Vietnam into the largest Nike company. Overseas production base.Under such a good situation, the Vietnamese people should have invested 5 yuan in the real economy, and would invest another 5 yuan in the stock market and property market. In 1986, Vietnam implemented reform and opening up, transforming from a planned economic system to a market economic system. With the acceleration of urbanization, the Vietnamese government learned from foreign experience and transitioned from a welfare housing system to allowing real estate companies to develop commercial housing.With the rapid growth of Vietnam's economy, since 2006, Vietnam's stock market and real estate have skyrocketed, and many people have become rich by speculating in real estate and stocks.The climate of economic development has permeated almost every household in major cities.So, how was Vietnam's economic prosperity created?Can the departure of foreign capital alone destroy Vietnam's economy?
Foreign capital began to pull the stock market and real estate prices to 15 yuan, how do they pull it?Vietnam has always been completely relaxed about foreign investment. If you want to come in, you can come in, and if you want to go out, you can go out. Great, then they will raise the stock index, how high will it be?It reached 1170 points in March 2007. As for the property prices, taking the shops in Ben Thanh Market in Ho Chi Minh City as an example, they have increased by 40% within two years. You can see how outrageous it is. In 2006, the price per square meter of this shop was as high as 170,000 U.S. dollars. If calculated in gold, 230 taels of gold can buy a square meter, almost to the point where every inch of land is worth a lot of money, while the price of the shop in Ginza, Tokyo is only 13. Ten thousand dollars per square meter, do you think Vietnam is crazy?It has reached such a high level, so everyone stopped doing the real economy and went to do the virtual economy. The 5 yuan that should be used for the real economy has also been invested in the real estate and stock markets, and the wealth of the Vietnamese has become 20 yuan. How will the United States attack Vietnam next?That is to let the dollar depreciate. The depreciation of the dollar has caused a sharp rise in international energy and international food prices. Emerging economies like Vietnam that are highly dependent on imported energy cannot withstand this kind of shock, so Vietnam Severe inflation occurred.Moreover, due to the sharp rise in energy prices, a large amount of energy imports resulted in a large amount of foreign exchange outflow, resulting in a trade deficit, so at this time Vietnam is different from Thailand. Its problems are two: the first is the trade deficit; the second It's inflation, and their inflation rate is as high as 25%.Foreign capital began to withdraw in large numbers.From October 3, 2007 to June 4, 2008, the Vietnam Stock Exchange Ho Chi Minh Index fell from 1106 points to 396 points in just 8 months, and fell to 710 points, and real estate prices also fell by half . Of course, there is another point I want to tell you, when the Vietnamese government encountered trade deficit and inflation, guess what choice they made?You actually found that their choice is exactly the same as that of Thailand, they chose to raise the interest rate. On January 30, 2008, the Central Bank of Vietnam raised the interest rate from 7.25% to 8.75%. On May 17, in order to prevent inflation from spiraling up, the interest rate was raised from 8.57% to 12%. On June 10, the interest rate was changed from 12% and then raised to 14%.Do you remember what the interest rates were in Thailand? 13.25%.You see, Vietnam did exactly what Thailand did. Well, foreign capital is about to withdraw in large quantities. What is the result of your raising interest rates?You hit the stock market further, right?As soon as the foreign capital withdraws, you raise the interest rate again, the stock price falls even more, the stock price falls, and the property price plummets, falling by 50%, which finally causes the financial crisis in Vietnam, and the wealth of Vietnamese people falls back to 5 yuan , It is still in a slump, and there will be no economic miracle in Vietnam in the future.Just like Japan, as long as you suffer a blow, you want to recover, sorry brother, there is no way.You need a very long time.Will this be a warning to you, what if China is also played by others?Have you ever thought that you are Thailand and Vietnam today?So far, Thailand and Japan have not recovered, let alone Vietnam, which has just begun, and the recovery is still early, and I worry that it will never happen.Ladies and gentlemen, have you heard a little sense of crisis?Is there a little horror? Vietnam's economy has maintained a high growth rate of more than 7% for 10 years, second only to China and ranked second in the world. However, with the outflow of international hot money, Vietnam's trade deficit plus foreign debt has reached 27 billion U.S. dollars, while Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves are only 20 billion U.S. dollars .The bursting of the bubble triggered by the financial shock has attracted the attention of Asian countries.In fact, in terms of finance, Vietnam is only a relatively low-maturity market. Then, what will happen when the shadow of the bubble appears in the highly developed Asian financial center-Hong Kong, China?
After talking about these two simple countries, I want to tell you about two other more complicated countries, Hong Kong, China and Japan.How to fight bubble wars in these two places?Because the Japanese and the Chinese are both smarter, it takes a little trouble to deal with these two places, but it can still be dealt with.Then let's take a look at how they slowly approach us, and first look at how they attack Hong Kong, China. I admire them very much. First of all, it must be changed from 1 yuan to 10 yuan.Take a look at Hong Kong. In 1974, with the full recovery of the Western economy from the oil crisis, Hong Kong’s economy and real estate industry were on the fast track again. During the 10 years from 1974 to 1983, real estate continued to grow for many years. During this period, Hong Kong It has successfully completed the economic transformation from manufacturing industries such as textiles, garments, and plastics to high value-added service industries such as finance, consulting, public utilities, telecommunications, sea, land and air transportation, and tourism.At the same time, Hong Kong's economy has benefited from the reform and opening up of the Mainland, and has been integrated with the economy of South China, gaining huge development space and energy.From the 1970s to the 1990s, Hong Kong's economy developed rapidly, and bank deposits increased by 81 times in 20 years, which means that the wealth of Hong Kong people has become 10 yuan.Residents' wealth began to flow into the real estate market and the stock market in large quantities. Why?This is certain, because after this stage, if you earn 10 yuan, you must invest 5 yuan in the real economy, and 5 yuan in the real estate market and the stock market.What Hong Kong, China does will not be better than Thailand and Vietnam. But what is exactly the same as Vietnam and Thailand?That is, international hot money has also joined the crazy hype.Look at them again, without exception.What are they up to?I want to fry the stock market and property market prices in Hong Kong, China to 15 yuan, and then exploit you.From 1991 to 1997, before the bubble burst, housing prices in Hong Kong increased by 4 times. Compared with 1985, the housing prices in 1997 increased by 9 to 10 times. During the two years from 1995 to 1997, the real estate market in Hong Kong appreciated. The Hang Seng Index increased by 80%, and the Hang Seng Index doubled by 1.4 times, reaching its peak on August 7, 1997, at 16,673 points.At this stage, you have been pulled to 15 yuan, so Hong Kong people no longer want to be in the real economy.What is Hong Kong?It is a place to speculate in real estate and stocks, because it is so easy to make money, so the 5 yuan that should be invested in the real economy is used to speculate in real estate and stocks. Hong Kong has no real economy until now, because he does not want to do it, because of real estate speculation , How exciting is it to speculate in stocks, and how hard it is to do manufacturing. Well, how to deal with Hong Kong people?Hong Kong, China is different from Thailand and Vietnam. They all have trade deficits, so they are short of US dollars. The result of the lack of US dollars is that as long as your policies make mistakes, you will collapse yourself.So at that time they used international investment banks and international media to promote interest rate increases. They told Thailand that you should raise interest rates to attract foreign investment; they told Vietnam that you should raise interest rates to solve inflation.Both countries have listened, why?Like us, they always think that the moon in foreign countries is rounder, and what foreigners say is correct. How could they know that this is all their conspiracy.Due to your lack of foreign exchange and the result of raising interest rates, the economy has further slipped to the bottom due to policy mistakes, and you are short of US dollars and foreign exchange, so you can't cure the economy at all, and you have no room for turning around.However, Hong Kong people are difficult to deal with. Hong Kong's foreign exchange savings rate is very high, and the Chinese are probably smarter.It doesn't matter whether you are smart or not, the result is the same anyway, and you will be pitted by the bubble war. So, how to deal with Hong Kong?Soros attacked again, because Hong Kong is a very complicated place, and to deal with Hong Kong people, you have to use a tricky approach.How to make Hong Kong's bubble burst?This is not easy. Anyway, the principle is to force Hong Kong people to raise interest rates like Vietnam and Thailand.Vietnam and Thailand have improved themselves, but Hong Kong people are not easy to fool. Hong Kong has neither inflation nor lack of foreign capital, so how can they fool around? The financial industry is one of the main economic pillars of Hong Kong.As early as the 1950s and 1960s, Hong Kong had already become a regional financial center. After the 1970s, the scale of various financial businesses in Hong Kong continued to expand and became increasingly internationalized.Over the past decade, Hong Kong has developed into an international financial market. In 1997, the hedge fund owned by American financial tycoon Soros launched a series of attacks on Southeast Asian countries, which shocked the world.After sweeping across Southeast Asia, Soros turned his attention to Hong Kong, China.So what is Soros going to do?
Thinking and thinking, thinking and thinking, Soros remembered, and it turned out that on a dark and windy night, suddenly at 12 o'clock in the middle of the night, Soros shorted Hong Kong dollars in New York.What is short selling, I want to explain to you, that is, today I lent a stock to a securities company and sold it at the price of 100 yuan today, and when the stock price fell to 60 yuan tomorrow, I bought it back and sold the stock I returned it to the securities company. Since I sold it for 100 yuan and bought it back for 60 yuan, I made a profit of 40 yuan.So it is different from stock trading in that you have to wait for the stock price to rise to make money in stock trading, while short selling can only make money when the stock price falls. Therefore, the purpose of Soros to short sell the Hong Kong dollar is to snipe the Hong Kong dollar and bet on the fall of the Hong Kong dollar. It is the same as shorting stocks. As long as the Hong Kong dollar falls, it can make money.But Soros did not make sense at all, because Hong Kong's exchange rate system is very strange. It is not a simple fixed exchange rate, but the so-called pegged dollar exchange rate.In order to give readers a clear concept, let’s first talk about what is a fixed exchange rate. A fixed exchange rate is a foreign exchange price set by the government, for example, one dollar is exchanged for seven yuan.If the price of the U.S. dollar is high, the government will sell U.S. dollars to suppress the price of the U.S. dollar, and buy renminbi to raise the price to adjust. The government maintains this exchange rate by buying and selling U.S. dollars in foreign exchange, maintaining a one-to-seven exchange rate.But Hong Kong is not. Hong Kong implements a linked exchange rate. What is a linked exchange rate?It is different from the fixed exchange rate, that is, the three note-issuing banks in Hong Kong, including HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank and Bank of China, as long as they want to issue Hong Kong dollars, they must first deposit U.S. dollars to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Only 100 US dollars goes to the Monetary Authority, and the bank can issue 750 Hong Kong dollars.If the U.S. dollar is not deposited in, then Hong Kong dollars cannot be issued. This is the linked exchange rate system, which is almost the only one in the world.Unlike China, China does not need to deposit U.S. dollars to issue renminbi. As long as the government says that one U.S. dollar is exchanged for seven yuan, if the price changes, the government will adjust it.Not in Hong Kong. Hong Kong must deposit U.S. dollars before it can issue Hong Kong dollars.Well, there is no Hong Kong dollar in Hong Kong at all. They are all U.S. dollars, because there are U.S. dollars behind every Hong Kong dollar cash you have. What is Hong Kong dollar actually?Isn't it just a coupon for US dollars? As long as Hong Kong dollars are issued, there must be U.S. dollars, so Hong Kong dollars are U.S. dollars, and Hong Kong dollars are the veil of U.S. dollars.Since it is the U.S. dollar, please think about it with your ass, how could Soros sell the U.S. dollar’s veiled Hong Kong dollar short?How can it be against the dollar?Yes or no?How can you use the dollar to snipe the dollar?Do you think it is possible?Absolutely impossible.And how dare Soros attack the dollar?He doesn't want to live anymore?The US government will definitely arrest him.So you think this is unreasonable in itself?You have to snipe with a different currency, right?So it is impossible to succeed at all. What are you anxious about?As a result, we were very nervous. Do you know what we did?Whoops, freaked out at the time, over, over, Soros sniping us. So the Monetary Authority of Hong Kong made a decision on the spot, saying that lending is not allowed.Soros shorted the Hong Kong dollar today, what about tomorrow?He will go to the Hong Kong market to buy back Hong Kong dollars and return them.What if my buddies can’t buy Hong Kong dollars when they come to Hong Kong?If you don't go back, you will be in breach of contract and you will have to pay a fine, right?You lose, understand what I mean?So we Hong Kong people are thinking, won't he be defeated if he doesn't go back?Didn't we just defeat him?So at this moment, we did a meaningful thing next, which was to prevent Soros from borrowing Hong Kong dollars.If he can't borrow Hong Kong dollars, he can't pay back the money, and if he can't pay back the money, he loses. Well, in order to prevent Soros from getting Hong Kong dollars, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority threw out a large number of U.S. dollars to buy Hong Kong dollars, and took back all the Hong Kong dollars on the market, so that if you can’t buy Hong Kong dollars, you don’t want to go back.Since a large number of US dollars were thrown out to buy Hong Kong dollars, the Hong Kong dollars were gone. Yes, Soros could not buy Hong Kong dollars either.However, if the Hong Kong dollar is gone, then I would like to ask, what about the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar?Your currency suddenly decreases, what will happen to your interest rate?Immediately up, right?What should I do if I need Hong Kong dollars because there is no Hong Kong dollar?I have to use high interest rates to borrow Hong Kong dollars, right?Well, since you exchanged all the Hong Kong dollars with U.S. dollars, do you think Soros will not go back after all the Hong Kong dollars have been recovered?Then let me tell you, the result of your taking back Hong Kong dollars is that there is a shortage of Hong Kong dollars in the market, so the interest rate of Hong Kong dollars immediately skyrocketed.Do you know how much it has risen?The Hong Kong interbank offered rate rose to a sky-high price of 280% in one day. Aren't we Hongkongers smarter than Vietnamese?Aren't we smarter than Thais?What about your interest rate in the end?You still raised it, but this time he used a very complicated method to force our interest rate to rise.Interest rates have gone up, do you remember the story of Vietnam and the story of Thailand, what will happen to the stock price?plummeted.那如果说索罗斯真的想捞一笔的话，他应该对股价做什么动作？先卖空股票，所以我查了数据，在他狙击之前，索罗斯已经卖空了8万个恒生指数的合同，赌什么？赌的就是恒生指数狂跌。什么叫卖空？那就是借出8万个恒生指数，用今天的高价卖掉，明天等到恒生指数跌到低谷以后，再买回来8万张合同还回去。因此高价卖的，低价买的，就赚差价，所以索罗斯真的想靠什么赚钱？靠股价大跌卖空而赚钱，根本不是靠外汇。 香港的联系汇率制度被认为是风险最小的一种货币制度。索罗斯实际上没有看到香港货币制度上的漏洞，但他却在金融监管体制与经济泡沫问题上找到了机会。在1997年上半年，香港的楼市、股市泡沫正值顶峰。随着居民财富与国际游资的疯狂炒作，香港1997年房价相比1985年，升幅高达9至10倍。由于看好香港回归的前景，香港股市一路暴涨，外资大量涌入香港股市。1997年8月7日，香港恒生指数涨到16673点的历史最高位。而从1990年至1997年，楼市和股市为香港带来约7万亿港元的“额外财富”，相当于这七年间香港本地的生产总值。面对巨大的泡沫，索罗斯的狙击结果就显得格外惨烈。
结果，在1997年10月23日利率提高到280%的时候，我们的股票价格狂跌，400亿美元的股票市值烟消云散。说到索罗斯的狙击，1997年之后，恒生指数从16673点的高峰一直跌到了6660点，跌去了60%。就这么一招，我们就彻底失败了。 还有香港的楼价，从1997年最高峰开始持续下跌，到2003年差不多跌去了60%的市值，也就是说楼市下跌，港人财富蒸发了2.2万亿港元，平均每个业主损失267万港元，负资产人数高达17万人，一直到2009年才恢复到1994年的水平，这是我们的楼市。 更重要是什么呢？那就是1997年之后到1998年，股价大跌、楼价大跌。这两个大跌的结果呢，使得香港被席卷一把，香港老百姓的财富从20块钱跌回了5块钱，所以香港老百姓变得贫穷了。从那个时候开始，香港老百姓产生了索罗斯恐惧症，一听到索罗斯就怕得要死，这就是为什么过去恒生指数涨到一万六、一万七、一万八的时候就开始大幅震荡，叫做索罗斯振荡，就是被索罗斯吓得。而且我们香港人胆子一向小，最近为什么涨了这么多呢？那是大胆人干的，是谁？中国大陆的资金去干的。现在又炒到了2万多点，楼价也炒翻天了。我告诉各位，美国可能又要开始出手了。 但是如果我是他们，我有资金，我肯定这么干，至于用什么方法干，我不晓得。但至少你会发现他对付我们香港人是用声东击西的方法，你说他们高不高明？说是打击外汇，其实是用股票市场大赚一笔。赚了多少钱呢？至少我们市值损失了400亿美金。我相信他们至少赚百亿美金吧。 从1997年至今，国际金融资本先后发动了对于泰国、中国香港、越南等国的泡沫大战。由经济奇迹到经济衰退，亚洲遭遇的泡沫打击可谓教训深刻。不过有观点认为，亚洲遭遇泡沫打击的这些国家、地区经济规模较小，与国际金融大鳄在较量中捉襟见肘。实际上，国际金融大鳄的目标绝不仅仅限于经济实力较弱的国家，即使是经济规模更为强大、经济结构更为严密的国家，一样会成为泡沫大战的目标。那么，泡沫大战还曾狙击过哪个经济强国，国际金融大鳄在面对不同对手的时候又会采取怎样不同的手段呢？
最后呢，就讲日本，日本也是不太好对付的。为什么不太好对付呢？他们也是跟中国香港一样，从来都是贸易顺差的，而且是不缺外汇资金的，那怎么对付他们呢？而且日本人还特别喜欢做实业，不喜欢炒楼、炒股，所以也没什么泡沫，这就难应付了，怎么办呢？所以美国必须帮他制造泡沫，制造泡沫之后，美国必须帮他击破泡沫，所以美国对付日本是非常辛苦的。 对付小日本可不同了，日本人更狡猾更奸诈，他们不像泰国人、越南人、香港人，赚到10块钱之后，就会拿出5块钱炒楼、炒股。只要国际热钱进来拉抬股价、楼价，然后逼迫他们提高利率，就可以击溃泡沫。 日本人这10块钱，可能都是在做实体经济，他们跟德国人一样根本就不想炒楼、炒股。德国有300万家中小企业，真正想上创业板的没有几家，为什么？他们看不起这个东西，他们想脚踏实地，一步一个脚印地把企业干好，他们没有兴趣炒股的。那你怎么狙击他呢？那么美国人就一定要帮他制造泡沫，然后再击破泡沫，很辛苦的。 各位知道日本在那个时候有多牛吗？三菱公司出资8.46亿美元收购了被称为美国的标志纽约洛克菲勒中心51%的股权，索尼公司动用了34亿美元买下了被称为美国灵魂的好莱坞哥伦比亚电影公司，松下公司出资61亿美元收购了美国环球影业公司。而且在1986年、1987年日本在夏威夷的投资就高达65亿美元以上，日本买下了珍珠港海滩区域2/3的豪华酒店，大批楼房、大餐厅、购物中心、高尔夫球场等，还有畜牧产业、种植园。所以美国人说，檀香山快变成东京的一个区了，夏威夷俨然成了供日本人修养、疗养的乐园，就像一个新的殖民地。这就是美国人的看法，所以呢你日本太嚣张了，不整治整治你怎么行呢？可是日本非常复杂，要怎么样帮他制造泡沬呢？又要怎么样帮他把泡沫击破呢？这很需要两把刷子。 首先，制造泡沫，日本人不是跟德国人一样喜欢做实体经济吗，那可不行，一定要逼迫日本人去炒股、炒楼。怎么炒股、怎么炒楼呢？想到了一个办法，1985年9月，美国、德国、法国、英国、日本五个国家，在纽约的广场酒店签订了《广场协议》，这个协议要求日币升值。怎么会要求日币升值呢？这是完全不一样的路数，对付泰国汇率贬值了；对付越南汇率贬值了；对付中国香港，他是联系汇率动不了；可是对付日本，就要让他汇率升值。这是干什么呀？兄弟们，他是想制造泡沬。结果三个月内日元兑美元由250日元升值到200日元，升幅高达20%，几个月之后变成149日元，到了1987年变成120日元，也就是说从1985年9月份250日元换1美元，到了1987年变成120日元，等于升值了一倍多。 你知道日元升值一倍多这是什么概念吗？那就是彻底地打击了日本的出口制造业，日本制造业变得无利可图。那他们能干什么呢？美国人就是要逼他们去炒楼、炒股，制造泡沫。1987年10月份，美国纽约股市崩盘，美国政府利用这次天赐良机，透过美国财政部长贝克向日本首相中曾根施加压力说，日本人你们要帮助美国老大哥一把，我们10月份纽约的股市刚刚崩盘，我们是很痛苦的，资金大量流出了，你帮帮兄弟一下吧，好吗？怎么帮呢？你们日本利率太高了，美国资金都跑到日本去了，你这样子做小老弟的不够意思，你们干脆把利率降低一点，这些国际热钱在日本赚不到利息，就回流美国，帮帮兄弟一把嘛。美国人软硬兼施，说什么如果你不帮，到时民主党上台的话，将在日美贸易赤字问题上大做文章，严厉对付你们小日本。但是你放心，贝克说我是共和党，我们如果继续执政的话，保证对你有好处，你看怎么样？你只要帮哥哥一个忙，降低利率，好不好？中曾根没办法了，好吧，结果他就降低利率，降到了只有2.5%。好，那我再问你，由于汇率到了1987年已经升值了1倍，从250日元升值到了120日元，严重打击了日本的出口制造业，让他变得无利可图的时候，日本的商社突然发现利率只有2.5%了。你说他们会干什么？他们发现这么便宜的资金，干脆向银行借钱，借钱去干吗？和我们的国有企业一样炒楼、炒股去了。所以日本人也开始在美国的双重压力之下，开始炒楼、炒股，制造泡沫。 日本国土面积狭小，人口众多，随着经济快速发展，从一片废墟上建立起来的房地产开发逐渐出现了泡沫特征。1985年东京、大阪的土地价格比第二次世界大战后初期猛涨了1万倍。尽管日本1985年的地产泡沫已经相当严重，但不少专家指出厂即使在这种情况下，日本经济泡沫破裂仍是可以避免的。日本真正的问题是在泡沫当中发生了错误的经济判断。在后来5年中，日本执行了一系列错误政策，将日本经济推入到泡沫破裂前的“最后疯狂”。那么，日本究竟作出了怎样的判断？是什么力量导致了泡沫的破裂呢？
1987年日币升值一倍，而且利率降到历史的低点2.5%，所以从1987年到1989年，股票价格涨了94%，相比1984年，1989年股票价格更是涨了368%，都市的土地价格涨了103%。所以日本开始有泡沫了。由于日本的低利率政策和日本出口制造业无利可图，结果大量的资金被借出来炒房地产，越炒越高，所以房地产价格，像东京，高得不得了，就像我们的上海、北京一样，都疯了。股票最高点被炒到多少呢？1989年12月29日，日经指数冲到了38915点，日本各地的房地产价格呢，也是不得了的涨，日本人的财富变成了20块钱。这个低利率让日本释放出多少货币？20世纪80年代初期，日本的贷款额度除上GDP是50%，到了1989年变成了100%，货币扩张速度成倍增长，因为日本各大企业借出廉价资金炒楼、炒股去了。 炒楼、炒股的下一步是什么？对付日本是完全不一样的。日币是升值的，利率是低的，你记得怎么狙击中国香港、泰国跟越南吗？一定要提高利率、打击股市，对不对？现在对付日本是降低利率，降低利率怎么打击股市呢？不行嘛。因此美国最后发明了一个“核弹”叫做“日经指数期货”和“日经指数期权”，由于这个核弹比较复杂，我们在本书下一章会详细讨论。在这儿，我们只介绍“日经指数期权”当中的“日经指数看跌期权”作为一个简单的例子。 这要说到美国的摩根士丹利，他们首先请日本人坐庄来发行“日经指数看跌期权”，他们这么忽悠日本人的，他们说今天日本的股价是100点，我们来参加你的赌局，美国人赌股价跌，日本人你赌股价涨。Yes or no?怎么赌呢？我们一参加赌局就给你10块的入场费，不管我们玩不玩，入场费都是日本人的。如果指数涨到了100点以上，我们就不玩了。如果从100点跌到60点的话，你就赔我40块。如果100点跌到30点的话呢，你就赔我70块。日本人一听，哈哈，你这个傻帽儿，我们指数怎么会跌？ 因此日本人当时认为摩根士丹利是群傻帽儿，而且基本上脑子是进水的，因为日本的股票指数怎么可能会跌呢？大家都在炒楼、炒股，一片火暴，不可能会跌。所以他们很高兴地接受这个合同，也就是说日本人认为钱太好赚了，参加赌局，一个合同就是10块钱，100个合同就是1000块钱，如果是两亿合同，那是多少钱哪？Incredible!而且美国人一定会输的，美国人傻帽儿，怎么可能会跌呢？以至于日本到底签了多少合同我们都不知道，不但日本的大公司签，小公司也跟着签，简直就是个天文数字。 1989年12月29日，日本股指到达了38915点。我们突然发现，在1990年的1月12日，美国人开始用“核弹”轰炸日本，美国的交易所突然出现了日经指数看跌期权，而且这个看跌期权信誉特别好，因为他们是由高盛来做的，而且高盛为了让这个期权更有价值，还转实给丹麦政府，让丹麦政府来背书，而且高盛本身就是世界上一流的投行，再加上丹麦政府的背书，所以期权信誉度非常高，结果在1990年1月2日竟然在美国股票交易所挂牌上市。这是什么结果呢？那就是让全世界的资金来打压日本股票，你只要把它从100点打到了20点的话，你就可以赚80块，即使扣掉10块成本也还剩70块。 因此全世界一起打击日本股票，以便从这个日经指数看跌期权赚钱，结果日经指数被狂打到谷底。从此以后，日本和中国香港、泰国、越南是一样的命运。只是美国哥们儿厉害，用的方法完全不同，可是结果是一样的，就是让你股市跟楼市完全破灭，最后日本人的财富还是跌到了5块钱。 1991年，在泡沫破裂之前，日本银行总贷款额达到当年国民生产总值的90%，而美国仅为37%。日本上千家财务公司和投资公司等跻身房地产金融行业，总金额高达40万亿日元。这些金融机构为泡沫源源不断输送能量直到最后一刻。泡沫破裂后，许多日本居民成为千万“负翁”，倒闭和被收购的银行和房地产公司不计其数，国民经济陷入了长期的负增长和零增长。那么，日本的泡沫故事又带给我们怎样的启示呢？
好了，日本的股票市场崩盘，首先波及到日本的银行业跟保险业，最终是制造业，因为企业向银行跟保险公司借了大量的钱，而且又不干制造业，和我们一样，都拿去炒楼、炒股。从1990年日经指数暴跌开始，日本陷入了长达二十几年的衰退，到今天日本还没有脱离萧条。日本股市总共暴跌了70%，房地产市场连续14年下跌，到现在都没复苏。在《金融战败》一书中，作者吉川元忠认为，就财富损失的比例而言，日本1990年金融战败的后果几乎和第二次世界大战中战败的后果相当，就这么严重。我不晓得各位读者心里有什么感觉？ 震撼世界的经济危机的主犯是美国，这是毫无疑义的。而本书想强调的是“仅凭美国是不能引起此次经济危机的”，一定有“共犯”。“共犯”就是为美国提供资金的国家，具体地讲就是日本、中国和欧佩克。这些国家均是对美贸易顺差国，它们把通过国际贸易赚得的美元投给了美国。也就是说，这些贸易顺差经由资本交易回流到美国。另外，由于日本长期实施超低利率政策和政府干预汇市，致使借日元投资美元的“日元套利交易”行为泛滥。这种套利交易使日元进一步贬值，日本出口进一步扩大，同时也催生了美国的住宅价格泡沫和金融泡沫。也就是说，“向全世界（尤其是美国）散发低成本的资金”是日本的“罪状”。 虽说日本是“共犯”，但并没有享受到太多的利益。从日本整体来看，我强烈地感觉到日本被主犯美国“利用”了，并且今后还要为此付出更大的代价。这就是书名用“罚”字的理由。 事实上，我们已经受到了一定的惩罚，由于异常的日元贬值正向正常水平回归，日本持有的外国资产已经发生巨额损失，其规模接近因美国次贷危机造成的世界金融机构总损失额的一半。 日本该受“罚”的不只是外币资产的贬值，今后还将遭受未曾有过的经济不景气的袭击。 第一波袭击——出口企业减产、业绩大幅度下滑，相关企业破产并导致失业人数大幅度增加（这一波袭击基本完成）。第二波袭击——因金融机构的不良资产增加和股价下跌导致自有资本减少。这种不景气事态是我们所未曾经历过的，所以很难准确地预测危机在未来的哪个时点爆发。 日本政府又是如何应对的呢？其一是发放定额的补助金。这种应对策略除了“为选举赚取人气”外，看不出有什么实质性的意义。其二是实施卖空管制和现价冻结金融商品。这种应对策略的实质就是把即将暴露的问题隐藏起来。由此可见，政府是不可信的，面对即将到来的危机，我们只能自卫。现在最重要的就是要发挥每一个人的能力，改变日本的社会结构。 本文摘选自［日］野口悠纪雄的《日本的反省：依赖美国的罪与罚》
The bubble war is about to start. Let’s continue with the previous example. The 10 yuan in our hands will be invested in two investments, 5 yuan will be invested in the stock market and the real estate market, and the other 5 yuan will be invested in the bank to invest in the real economy. The sum is 10 yuan. dollars.That is, on the eve of your plan to invest 5 yuan in the real economy, they immediately raise your property market and stock market to 15 yuan, and you have not invested in the real economy at this time, and you still have 5 yuan in bank deposits, so you Look, the total is 20 yuan. On the surface, it looks the same as what was said before. You also think you are rich, because you are a stupid person, you think you are rich.Do you know what the next step is?That is when you see how easy it is to make money, you can earn 15 yuan without doing anything, even without real investment , so the stock market and property market became 20 yuan.Why should I use this 5 yuan to set up a factory? It’s too hard. I produce every day and I’m busy until 12 o’clock every day.Well, then you have no growth, because you have no real economy.What is the next step?Guess everyone, how much money will you make if you break the bubble?It becomes 5 yuan, and it returns to the original level, because you have no physical production at all, and the physical investment is still zero for so many years.Finally, you find that this is your result, you are not 40 yuan, you are still 5 yuan. Asset bubbles are the basis of exchange rate wars.Does your country want to develop?I will first push up your stock market and real estate market. After the bubble occurs, a lot of money from the real economy will flow into the virtual market. In the end, foreign capital withdraws and the bubble bursts. As a result, you only have 5 yuan left.In order to explain this sniping process in detail, I use Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Japan as examples to explain the four different sniping techniques of the United States. For Asia, which is poised to once again act as the engine of the global economy today, the stories of yesterday are still fresh in the memory. In 1997, a financial turmoil that started in Thailand and eventually spread to South Korea and other neighboring Asian countries and regions caused the collapse of the monetary systems and stock markets of Southeast Asian countries, violent turmoil in the international foreign exchange market, and even Russia was dragged into the financial crisis.The Asian financial turmoil became another major economic event after the economic crisis in the 1930s.So, can Lang Xianping's bubble war formula explain the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?
First look at Thailand.Note that if you only earn 1 yuan in this country, there is no fun. It must be after you accumulate wealth to 10 yuan in addition to food and clothing.If you have always been so poor, like in Africa, stop playing, it’s meaningless to play, and you will be cheated a lot, what’s so good about earning only 1 yuan?If you want to eat, you can't let you starve to death.It must be at the stage of earning 10 yuan to have the value of playing.So let’s put it this way, why the United States and the European Union like to hear about reform and opening up and economic growth so much, because only after growth and opening up can they reach this point, can they get rid of extreme poverty, get rid of food and clothing, and enter the stage of accumulation, so This is why Western countries are very concerned about the economic growth of Asian countries, and they are very encouraging, even through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to give Asian countries a lot of loans, I hope you will grow, from 1 yuan to 10 One dollar, this is the moment to trick you.Let's take a look at Thailand first. When did Thailand change from 1 yuan to 10 yuan?That is, during the 11 years from 1974 to 1985, due to the continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the Thai baht was pegged to the U.S. dollar and depreciated accordingly. Because of the depreciation of the Thai baht, it was beneficial to Thailand’s exports, and the rapid growth of exports made Thailand’s GDP during this period The annual growth rate is close to 10%.After reaching 10%, wait to be sniped. 10%, do you feel familiar with this figure, isn't it the annual growth rate of the Chinese economy?Good similar data, which is why in addition to the "Four Tigers", there will also be "Four Little Tigers" in Asia. These countries and regions basically have such a growth model. Thailand has come to this point, with an annual growth rate of more than 8%, which is regarded as an Asian miracle. From 1986 to 1994, the export growth rate of Thailand's manufacturing industry was 30% per year, which was exactly the same as that of China.During this period, the proportion of manufacturing exports to total exports rose from 36% to 81%, the proportion of manufacturing to GDP increased from 22% to 29%, the proportion of agricultural exports dropped from 47% to 13%, and agricultural output value accounted for The proportion of GDP has dropped from 21% to 11%. The overall data looks very ideal, because Thailand has become rich and its industry has grown. It has changed from 1 yuan to 10 yuan. Therefore, Thai people naturally take 5 yuan in bank deposits to invest in the real economy, and the other 5 yuan to buy stocks and properties.OK, so what's the next step?That is to start making foam.We suddenly discovered that the Thai government actually encouraged foreign capital to enter Thailand in the 1990s. Our data shows that they did two things: the first is to allow both Thai banks and foreign banks to absorb US dollar deposits from abroad to Thailand Come spend; the second is even allowing foreigners to borrow and borrow baht freely.From 1990 to 1996, Thailand slowly opened its capital account and finally fully opened it.By 1996, foreign capital could come in to buy stocks and real estate at will. What is more frightening?Foreign capital can withdraw from real estate and stock markets at will. Once foreign capital is allowed to enter and exit at will, problems are bound to arise.Since 1990, a large number of foreign capitals have entered Thailand to drive up the price, from 5 yuan to 15 yuan. Let's see what similar data tell us.A large amount of foreign capital flows into the stock market and real estate market, causing stock prices and real estate prices to soar, forming asset price bubbles. In 1993, foreign investment in Thai stocks was 3 billion U.S. dollars, which doubled from 1994 to 1995, and a total of 6 billion U.S. dollars was invested in Thai stocks.A large amount of foreign capital has also invested in the real estate industry. From 1992 to 1996, a total of 755,000 houses were built in Bangkok.What is the residential vacancy rate? 25% to 30%, what is the commercial vacancy rate? 14%.A large number of loans for housing construction caused the quality of loans to decline, so the crisis began to appear. Thailand's index reached a record high of 624 points, similar to the trend in China from May 2005 to October 2007.During this period, Thailand’s economy was still in a stage of substantial growth, so bank credit expanded rapidly, but as I told you earlier, a large amount of funds did not flow to efficient and high value-added production sectors, but to high-risk real estate markets and the stock market.What it does exactly happens according to the example I mentioned earlier. Until the end of the 1980s, Thailand has been implementing a relatively strict foreign exchange management system.Since the 1990s, Thailand has launched a series of financial reform measures in order to attract foreign investment.For example, in 1991, foreign exchange restrictions on capital account transactions began to be reduced. In 1992, it was opened to foreign capital, allowing domestic investors to obtain low-interest foreign funds directly through banks. In 1994, the limit of foreign currency that can be carried in and out of the country was relaxed, and foreign banks were allowed to set up branches in various cities in Thailand.While implementing financial liberalization, Thailand has not established a sound financial management system.Facing the wide-open Thailand, what did the influx of foreign funds do?
Moreover, Thailand is very open to foreign investment. A large amount of foreign capital has poured into Thailand, and a considerable part of it has also entered the real estate industry.The proportion of fixed investment in GDP was less than 25% before 1989, rose to 30% after 1989, and rose to 42.5% after 1996, but it was not as high as ours. Ours was 67% in 2009, and theirs was only 42%. There was a financial crisis. This is Thailand. Property prices and stock prices are already unbearable, and they have risen sharply, that is, to the stage of 15 yuan. What are a lot of useful social resources going to do?Stocks, property speculation to go.Because you don’t engage in the real economy, all the money you keep in the bank is used to speculate in real estate and stocks. A lot of bank credit has deteriorated, and investment in the real economy has become zero. Now the whole of Thailand is waiting for the next step to change from 20 yuan to 5 yuan. money.So how to snipe Thailand? Due to the decline in loan quality, the financial crisis began. By June 1996, the non-performing assets of various banks in Thailand had reached 35.8%. In August 1997, international rating agencies believed that 25% of Thailand's loans could not pay interest. up.Therefore, foreign capital began to withdraw.Because foreign capital saw the risk, as a result of the withdrawal, from May 1996 to May 1997, Thailand's stock index fell by 60%. At the last step, Thailand's property market also plummeted.Well, what's more frightening?Thailand has encountered a serious trade deficit at this moment. Why is there a serious trade deficit?Why did Thailand do well in the past because of the appreciation of the US dollar?Because of the long-term depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the result of their depreciation made exports drive the economy, but I don’t know why, the U.S. dollar began to appreciate during this period, around 1995. How could it be such a coincidence? After the appreciation in 1995, Thailand's exports failed. In 1996, the growth rate of Thailand's exports dropped from 24% to 3%.Therefore, in 1995, Thailand's trade deficit was as high as 1?One hundred million U.S. dollars.Thailand is facing two dilemmas: the first dilemma is the trade deficit; the second dilemma is the massive outflow of foreign capital.Guess what choice the Thai government made?The Thai government actually gave up the trade deficit and decided to try its best to retain foreign capital. How to retain it?That is to provide higher bank interest rates, hoping that foreign capital can return to Thailand and deposit it in Thai banks.They did such a stupid thing!How high are the interest rates?By 1996, Thailand's interest rate was as high as 13.25%, the highest in the entire Asian region.It was high interest rates that contributed to the Asian financial crisis that started in Thailand. The Thai financial crisis was the trigger for the 1997 Asian financial crisis.Therefore, understanding the Thai financial crisis is considered to be the starting point for understanding the Asian financial crisis. Since 1997, economists from various countries have explored the root causes of Thailand's financial crisis from different perspectives and put forward many important points of view.Lang Xianping believes that the bubble war is the chief culprit for breaking down Thailand's economy, and the reason why the bubble finally burst in 1997 was the huge non-performing loans caused by asset inflation represented by real estate.How did these non-performing loans trigger the financial crisis, and what was the last straw that crushed Thailand's economy?
Do you know what's going on?At this moment, the decline in exports has resulted in a trade deficit, which has led to an economic recession. Why don't you come to boost the economy?Are you raising interest rates?Wouldn't the result of raising interest rates be to suppress the economy?It is more expensive for companies to borrow money, and even if they can't borrow money, they will not borrow, so business operations will be more difficult, so what will happen in the end?Many companies have no choice but to go abroad to find foreign banks to borrow money. Therefore, in August 1997, the Bank of Thailand had 90 billion U.S. dollars in foreign debt, of which 73 billion was borrowed by the private sector from foreign banks. Why?Because the banks in this country can't borrow money, it's not that they can't borrow money, because they dare not borrow because the interest rate is too high, aren't you hitting your own economy?In the end, the real economy is zero. Not only is it zero, you are still fighting it, which is stupid enough.What was the final result? The whole country only has 5 yuan left. It used to be 10 yuan. After the bubble became 20 yuan, it is now returned to its original shape and becomes 5 yuan.So who took the difference, from 20 yuan to 15 yuan to 5 yuan?take a guess.Soros et al.How did you take it?That is through the deregulation of foreign exchange in Thailand.A large amount of hot money flowed into Thailand, raising property prices and stock prices. At the highest point, they were sold to Thai people, and then they withdrew collectively. Thailand collapsed, and at the highest point, they took away all 15 yuan from the Thai people.So today the Thai people only have 5 yuan left.Who is Soros?Let me tell you, he is a pawn of the US government. He is definitely not an individual act. Unless it is an act of the state, where is there such a large amount of funds?Where is there such a great power?Moreover, Thailand was not the only country that was attacked. After Thailand collapsed, other Asian countries also collapsed. What happened in Thailand in the end? After three years of high volatility, the Thai stock market began to fall like an avalanche in April 1996, from 545 points at the beginning of April 1996 to 44.029 points at the end of August 1998. At the bottom, the cumulative decline was close to 90%. The stock investment fund companies in Thailand were reduced from dozens before the crisis to three, and finally only one remained. More than 95% of the other fund companies were all bankrupt and liquidated. This is Thailand, the whole country bankrupted. You see, on the eve of the financial turmoil, that is, the day before the attack, the backlog of real estate funds in Thailand was 30 billion U.S. dollars, and the backlog of houses was 850,000 units, which would take 7 years to digest. The vacancy rate of office buildings and shops was as high as 20%. In 1996, the amount of domestic housing loans increased by more than 5 times, and real estate loans accounted for 50% of the total bank loans, much higher than that of neighboring countries.That's the tragedy I'm going to tell you, that's what happened before and after the collapse. After talking about Thailand, the next poor brother is called Vietnam.Vietnam is the same country as us, a socialist country, also feels very good, thinking that reform and opening up are too easy, and they will develop if they open up and open up casually. Like Thailand, Vietnam has experienced the same ups and downs, and we all have a habit of not learning. We never learn from Thailand's lessons about what is called the bubble war, so I am here to tell you the story of Vietnam, See how they repeat the same mistakes. First of all, from 1 yuan to 10 yuan, so what does Vietnam need?Reform and opening up like ours is needed.What was the result of reform and opening up?In the 12 years from 1994 to 2005, Vietnam's information industry developed rapidly, with an average growth rate of 30%. From 1986 to 2006, the Vietnamese government established 24 high-tech parks to focus on the development of the IT industry. Therefore, after the end of the Vietnam War On the occasion of the 31st anniversary, Bill?When Mr. Gates visited Vietnam for the first time, he predicted that Vietnam would become a top software outsourcing country. The Vietnamese were very complacent after hearing this, because Vietnam, like us, likes to hear the flattering words of foreigners the most. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir met Soros in Hong Kong. He strongly condemned Soros's actions to the Asian economy.When Soros responded to the condemnation, he only said one sentence: "If it weren't for us, someone would still do it. Flies don't bite seamless eggs, and the market leaves room for speculation. It is the government's fault." Throughout the Second World In the history of Asian economic development after the World War II, bubble wars have been staged many times. Then, why this not new method has been tried repeatedly in Asia, and which countries have suffered major blows in the bubble wars?
In the past 10 years, Vietnam's average annual economic growth rate has been around 7.4%. In 2005, Vietnam's economic growth rate was as high as 8.4 percentage points, making it the second fastest growing country in Asia, only behind China. On November 7, 2006, Vietnam officially became the 150th member of the WTO. In 2007, Vietnam's economic growth rate was as high as 8.5%, almost the same as that of China.At this stage, the wealth of the Vietnamese has become 10 yuan. As long as this stage is reached, it is waiting for the bubble war. Foreign direct investment in Vietnam rose from 4 billion US dollars in 2005 to 7.6 billion US dollars in 2006. By 2007, Vietnam absorbed foreign investment as high as 20.3 billion US dollars. Foreign capital began to flow in. Why?Because they are ready to make foam. During this period, Vietnam could have invested 5 yuan in bank deposits into the real economy, and the situation at that time was very good. For example, South Korea’s Samsung Electronics stated that it would transfer some assembly factories from China to Vietnam in the future.Taiwan's Formosa Plastics moved its original plan to build a factory in mainland China to Vietnam.Nike placed a lot of OEM orders originally given to enterprises in Guangdong, China, to Vietnam. It not only expanded the production lines of four processing plants in Vietnam on a large scale, but also invested more than 16 million US dollars to build a processing plant, and planned to build Vietnam into the largest Nike company. Overseas production base.Under such a good situation, the Vietnamese people should have invested 5 yuan in the real economy, and would invest another 5 yuan in the stock market and property market. In 1986, Vietnam implemented reform and opening up, transforming from a planned economic system to a market economic system. With the acceleration of urbanization, the Vietnamese government learned from foreign experience and transitioned from a welfare housing system to allowing real estate companies to develop commercial housing.With the rapid growth of Vietnam's economy, since 2006, Vietnam's stock market and real estate have skyrocketed, and many people have become rich by speculating in real estate and stocks.The climate of economic development has permeated almost every household in major cities.So, how was Vietnam's economic prosperity created?Can the departure of foreign capital alone destroy Vietnam's economy?
Foreign capital began to pull the stock market and real estate prices to 15 yuan, how do they pull it?Vietnam has always been completely relaxed about foreign investment. If you want to come in, you can come in, and if you want to go out, you can go out. Great, then they will raise the stock index, how high will it be?It reached 1170 points in March 2007. As for the property prices, taking the shops in Ben Thanh Market in Ho Chi Minh City as an example, they have increased by 40% within two years. You can see how outrageous it is. In 2006, the price per square meter of this shop was as high as 170,000 U.S. dollars. If calculated in gold, 230 taels of gold can buy a square meter, almost to the point where every inch of land is worth a lot of money, while the price of the shop in Ginza, Tokyo is only 13. Ten thousand dollars per square meter, do you think Vietnam is crazy?It has reached such a high level, so everyone stopped doing the real economy and went to do the virtual economy. The 5 yuan that should be used for the real economy has also been invested in the real estate and stock markets, and the wealth of the Vietnamese has become 20 yuan. How will the United States attack Vietnam next?That is to let the dollar depreciate. The depreciation of the dollar has caused a sharp rise in international energy and international food prices. Emerging economies like Vietnam that are highly dependent on imported energy cannot withstand this kind of shock, so Vietnam Severe inflation occurred.Moreover, due to the sharp rise in energy prices, a large amount of energy imports resulted in a large amount of foreign exchange outflow, resulting in a trade deficit, so at this time Vietnam is different from Thailand. Its problems are two: the first is the trade deficit; the second It's inflation, and their inflation rate is as high as 25%.Foreign capital began to withdraw in large numbers.From October 3, 2007 to June 4, 2008, the Vietnam Stock Exchange Ho Chi Minh Index fell from 1106 points to 396 points in just 8 months, and fell to 710 points, and real estate prices also fell by half . Of course, there is another point I want to tell you, when the Vietnamese government encountered trade deficit and inflation, guess what choice they made?You actually found that their choice is exactly the same as that of Thailand, they chose to raise the interest rate. On January 30, 2008, the Central Bank of Vietnam raised the interest rate from 7.25% to 8.75%. On May 17, in order to prevent inflation from spiraling up, the interest rate was raised from 8.57% to 12%. On June 10, the interest rate was changed from 12% and then raised to 14%.Do you remember what the interest rates were in Thailand? 13.25%.You see, Vietnam did exactly what Thailand did. Well, foreign capital is about to withdraw in large quantities. What is the result of your raising interest rates?You hit the stock market further, right?As soon as the foreign capital withdraws, you raise the interest rate again, the stock price falls even more, the stock price falls, and the property price plummets, falling by 50%, which finally causes the financial crisis in Vietnam, and the wealth of Vietnamese people falls back to 5 yuan , It is still in a slump, and there will be no economic miracle in Vietnam in the future.Just like Japan, as long as you suffer a blow, you want to recover, sorry brother, there is no way.You need a very long time.Will this be a warning to you, what if China is also played by others?Have you ever thought that you are Thailand and Vietnam today?So far, Thailand and Japan have not recovered, let alone Vietnam, which has just begun, and the recovery is still early, and I worry that it will never happen.Ladies and gentlemen, have you heard a little sense of crisis?Is there a little horror? Vietnam's economy has maintained a high growth rate of more than 7% for 10 years, second only to China and ranked second in the world. However, with the outflow of international hot money, Vietnam's trade deficit plus foreign debt has reached 27 billion U.S. dollars, while Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves are only 20 billion U.S. dollars .The bursting of the bubble triggered by the financial shock has attracted the attention of Asian countries.In fact, in terms of finance, Vietnam is only a relatively low-maturity market. Then, what will happen when the shadow of the bubble appears in the highly developed Asian financial center-Hong Kong, China?
After talking about these two simple countries, I want to tell you about two other more complicated countries, Hong Kong, China and Japan.How to fight bubble wars in these two places?Because the Japanese and the Chinese are both smarter, it takes a little trouble to deal with these two places, but it can still be dealt with.Then let's take a look at how they slowly approach us, and first look at how they attack Hong Kong, China. I admire them very much. First of all, it must be changed from 1 yuan to 10 yuan.Take a look at Hong Kong. In 1974, with the full recovery of the Western economy from the oil crisis, Hong Kong’s economy and real estate industry were on the fast track again. During the 10 years from 1974 to 1983, real estate continued to grow for many years. During this period, Hong Kong It has successfully completed the economic transformation from manufacturing industries such as textiles, garments, and plastics to high value-added service industries such as finance, consulting, public utilities, telecommunications, sea, land and air transportation, and tourism.At the same time, Hong Kong's economy has benefited from the reform and opening up of the Mainland, and has been integrated with the economy of South China, gaining huge development space and energy.From the 1970s to the 1990s, Hong Kong's economy developed rapidly, and bank deposits increased by 81 times in 20 years, which means that the wealth of Hong Kong people has become 10 yuan.Residents' wealth began to flow into the real estate market and the stock market in large quantities. Why?This is certain, because after this stage, if you earn 10 yuan, you must invest 5 yuan in the real economy, and 5 yuan in the real estate market and the stock market.What Hong Kong, China does will not be better than Thailand and Vietnam. But what is exactly the same as Vietnam and Thailand?That is, international hot money has also joined the crazy hype.Look at them again, without exception.What are they up to?I want to fry the stock market and property market prices in Hong Kong, China to 15 yuan, and then exploit you.From 1991 to 1997, before the bubble burst, housing prices in Hong Kong increased by 4 times. Compared with 1985, the housing prices in 1997 increased by 9 to 10 times. During the two years from 1995 to 1997, the real estate market in Hong Kong appreciated. The Hang Seng Index increased by 80%, and the Hang Seng Index doubled by 1.4 times, reaching its peak on August 7, 1997, at 16,673 points.At this stage, you have been pulled to 15 yuan, so Hong Kong people no longer want to be in the real economy.What is Hong Kong?It is a place to speculate in real estate and stocks, because it is so easy to make money, so the 5 yuan that should be invested in the real economy is used to speculate in real estate and stocks. Hong Kong has no real economy until now, because he does not want to do it, because of real estate speculation , How exciting is it to speculate in stocks, and how hard it is to do manufacturing. Well, how to deal with Hong Kong people?Hong Kong, China is different from Thailand and Vietnam. They all have trade deficits, so they are short of US dollars. The result of the lack of US dollars is that as long as your policies make mistakes, you will collapse yourself.So at that time they used international investment banks and international media to promote interest rate increases. They told Thailand that you should raise interest rates to attract foreign investment; they told Vietnam that you should raise interest rates to solve inflation.Both countries have listened, why?Like us, they always think that the moon in foreign countries is rounder, and what foreigners say is correct. How could they know that this is all their conspiracy.Due to your lack of foreign exchange and the result of raising interest rates, the economy has further slipped to the bottom due to policy mistakes, and you are short of US dollars and foreign exchange, so you can't cure the economy at all, and you have no room for turning around.However, Hong Kong people are difficult to deal with. Hong Kong's foreign exchange savings rate is very high, and the Chinese are probably smarter.It doesn't matter whether you are smart or not, the result is the same anyway, and you will be pitted by the bubble war. So, how to deal with Hong Kong?Soros attacked again, because Hong Kong is a very complicated place, and to deal with Hong Kong people, you have to use a tricky approach.How to make Hong Kong's bubble burst?This is not easy. Anyway, the principle is to force Hong Kong people to raise interest rates like Vietnam and Thailand.Vietnam and Thailand have improved themselves, but Hong Kong people are not easy to fool. Hong Kong has neither inflation nor lack of foreign capital, so how can they fool around? The financial industry is one of the main economic pillars of Hong Kong.As early as the 1950s and 1960s, Hong Kong had already become a regional financial center. After the 1970s, the scale of various financial businesses in Hong Kong continued to expand and became increasingly internationalized.Over the past decade, Hong Kong has developed into an international financial market. In 1997, the hedge fund owned by American financial tycoon Soros launched a series of attacks on Southeast Asian countries, which shocked the world.After sweeping across Southeast Asia, Soros turned his attention to Hong Kong, China.So what is Soros going to do?
Thinking and thinking, thinking and thinking, Soros remembered, and it turned out that on a dark and windy night, suddenly at 12 o'clock in the middle of the night, Soros shorted Hong Kong dollars in New York.What is short selling, I want to explain to you, that is, today I lent a stock to a securities company and sold it at the price of 100 yuan today, and when the stock price fell to 60 yuan tomorrow, I bought it back and sold the stock I returned it to the securities company. Since I sold it for 100 yuan and bought it back for 60 yuan, I made a profit of 40 yuan.So it is different from stock trading in that you have to wait for the stock price to rise to make money in stock trading, while short selling can only make money when the stock price falls. Therefore, the purpose of Soros to short sell the Hong Kong dollar is to snipe the Hong Kong dollar and bet on the fall of the Hong Kong dollar. It is the same as shorting stocks. As long as the Hong Kong dollar falls, it can make money.But Soros did not make sense at all, because Hong Kong's exchange rate system is very strange. It is not a simple fixed exchange rate, but the so-called pegged dollar exchange rate.In order to give readers a clear concept, let’s first talk about what is a fixed exchange rate. A fixed exchange rate is a foreign exchange price set by the government, for example, one dollar is exchanged for seven yuan.If the price of the U.S. dollar is high, the government will sell U.S. dollars to suppress the price of the U.S. dollar, and buy renminbi to raise the price to adjust. The government maintains this exchange rate by buying and selling U.S. dollars in foreign exchange, maintaining a one-to-seven exchange rate.But Hong Kong is not. Hong Kong implements a linked exchange rate. What is a linked exchange rate?It is different from the fixed exchange rate, that is, the three note-issuing banks in Hong Kong, including HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank and Bank of China, as long as they want to issue Hong Kong dollars, they must first deposit U.S. dollars to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Only 100 US dollars goes to the Monetary Authority, and the bank can issue 750 Hong Kong dollars.If the U.S. dollar is not deposited in, then Hong Kong dollars cannot be issued. This is the linked exchange rate system, which is almost the only one in the world.Unlike China, China does not need to deposit U.S. dollars to issue renminbi. As long as the government says that one U.S. dollar is exchanged for seven yuan, if the price changes, the government will adjust it.Not in Hong Kong. Hong Kong must deposit U.S. dollars before it can issue Hong Kong dollars.Well, there is no Hong Kong dollar in Hong Kong at all. They are all U.S. dollars, because there are U.S. dollars behind every Hong Kong dollar cash you have. What is Hong Kong dollar actually?Isn't it just a coupon for US dollars? As long as Hong Kong dollars are issued, there must be U.S. dollars, so Hong Kong dollars are U.S. dollars, and Hong Kong dollars are the veil of U.S. dollars.Since it is the U.S. dollar, please think about it with your ass, how could Soros sell the U.S. dollar’s veiled Hong Kong dollar short?How can it be against the dollar?Yes or no?How can you use the dollar to snipe the dollar?Do you think it is possible?Absolutely impossible.And how dare Soros attack the dollar?He doesn't want to live anymore?The US government will definitely arrest him.So you think this is unreasonable in itself?You have to snipe with a different currency, right?So it is impossible to succeed at all. What are you anxious about?As a result, we were very nervous. Do you know what we did?Whoops, freaked out at the time, over, over, Soros sniping us. So the Monetary Authority of Hong Kong made a decision on the spot, saying that lending is not allowed.Soros shorted the Hong Kong dollar today, what about tomorrow?He will go to the Hong Kong market to buy back Hong Kong dollars and return them.What if my buddies can’t buy Hong Kong dollars when they come to Hong Kong?If you don't go back, you will be in breach of contract and you will have to pay a fine, right?You lose, understand what I mean?So we Hong Kong people are thinking, won't he be defeated if he doesn't go back?Didn't we just defeat him?So at this moment, we did a meaningful thing next, which was to prevent Soros from borrowing Hong Kong dollars.If he can't borrow Hong Kong dollars, he can't pay back the money, and if he can't pay back the money, he loses. Well, in order to prevent Soros from getting Hong Kong dollars, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority threw out a large number of U.S. dollars to buy Hong Kong dollars, and took back all the Hong Kong dollars on the market, so that if you can’t buy Hong Kong dollars, you don’t want to go back.Since a large number of US dollars were thrown out to buy Hong Kong dollars, the Hong Kong dollars were gone. Yes, Soros could not buy Hong Kong dollars either.However, if the Hong Kong dollar is gone, then I would like to ask, what about the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar?Your currency suddenly decreases, what will happen to your interest rate?Immediately up, right?What should I do if I need Hong Kong dollars because there is no Hong Kong dollar?I have to use high interest rates to borrow Hong Kong dollars, right?Well, since you exchanged all the Hong Kong dollars with U.S. dollars, do you think Soros will not go back after all the Hong Kong dollars have been recovered?Then let me tell you, the result of your taking back Hong Kong dollars is that there is a shortage of Hong Kong dollars in the market, so the interest rate of Hong Kong dollars immediately skyrocketed.Do you know how much it has risen?The Hong Kong interbank offered rate rose to a sky-high price of 280% in one day. Aren't we Hongkongers smarter than Vietnamese?Aren't we smarter than Thais?What about your interest rate in the end?You still raised it, but this time he used a very complicated method to force our interest rate to rise.Interest rates have gone up, do you remember the story of Vietnam and the story of Thailand, what will happen to the stock price?plummeted.那如果说索罗斯真的想捞一笔的话，他应该对股价做什么动作？先卖空股票，所以我查了数据，在他狙击之前，索罗斯已经卖空了8万个恒生指数的合同，赌什么？赌的就是恒生指数狂跌。什么叫卖空？那就是借出8万个恒生指数，用今天的高价卖掉，明天等到恒生指数跌到低谷以后，再买回来8万张合同还回去。因此高价卖的，低价买的，就赚差价，所以索罗斯真的想靠什么赚钱？靠股价大跌卖空而赚钱，根本不是靠外汇。 香港的联系汇率制度被认为是风险最小的一种货币制度。索罗斯实际上没有看到香港货币制度上的漏洞，但他却在金融监管体制与经济泡沫问题上找到了机会。在1997年上半年，香港的楼市、股市泡沫正值顶峰。随着居民财富与国际游资的疯狂炒作，香港1997年房价相比1985年，升幅高达9至10倍。由于看好香港回归的前景，香港股市一路暴涨，外资大量涌入香港股市。1997年8月7日，香港恒生指数涨到16673点的历史最高位。而从1990年至1997年，楼市和股市为香港带来约7万亿港元的“额外财富”，相当于这七年间香港本地的生产总值。面对巨大的泡沫，索罗斯的狙击结果就显得格外惨烈。
结果，在1997年10月23日利率提高到280%的时候，我们的股票价格狂跌，400亿美元的股票市值烟消云散。说到索罗斯的狙击，1997年之后，恒生指数从16673点的高峰一直跌到了6660点，跌去了60%。就这么一招，我们就彻底失败了。 还有香港的楼价，从1997年最高峰开始持续下跌，到2003年差不多跌去了60%的市值，也就是说楼市下跌，港人财富蒸发了2.2万亿港元，平均每个业主损失267万港元，负资产人数高达17万人，一直到2009年才恢复到1994年的水平，这是我们的楼市。 更重要是什么呢？那就是1997年之后到1998年，股价大跌、楼价大跌。这两个大跌的结果呢，使得香港被席卷一把，香港老百姓的财富从20块钱跌回了5块钱，所以香港老百姓变得贫穷了。从那个时候开始，香港老百姓产生了索罗斯恐惧症，一听到索罗斯就怕得要死，这就是为什么过去恒生指数涨到一万六、一万七、一万八的时候就开始大幅震荡，叫做索罗斯振荡，就是被索罗斯吓得。而且我们香港人胆子一向小，最近为什么涨了这么多呢？那是大胆人干的，是谁？中国大陆的资金去干的。现在又炒到了2万多点，楼价也炒翻天了。我告诉各位，美国可能又要开始出手了。 但是如果我是他们，我有资金，我肯定这么干，至于用什么方法干，我不晓得。但至少你会发现他对付我们香港人是用声东击西的方法，你说他们高不高明？说是打击外汇，其实是用股票市场大赚一笔。赚了多少钱呢？至少我们市值损失了400亿美金。我相信他们至少赚百亿美金吧。 从1997年至今，国际金融资本先后发动了对于泰国、中国香港、越南等国的泡沫大战。由经济奇迹到经济衰退，亚洲遭遇的泡沫打击可谓教训深刻。不过有观点认为，亚洲遭遇泡沫打击的这些国家、地区经济规模较小，与国际金融大鳄在较量中捉襟见肘。实际上，国际金融大鳄的目标绝不仅仅限于经济实力较弱的国家，即使是经济规模更为强大、经济结构更为严密的国家，一样会成为泡沫大战的目标。那么，泡沫大战还曾狙击过哪个经济强国，国际金融大鳄在面对不同对手的时候又会采取怎样不同的手段呢？
最后呢，就讲日本，日本也是不太好对付的。为什么不太好对付呢？他们也是跟中国香港一样，从来都是贸易顺差的，而且是不缺外汇资金的，那怎么对付他们呢？而且日本人还特别喜欢做实业，不喜欢炒楼、炒股，所以也没什么泡沫，这就难应付了，怎么办呢？所以美国必须帮他制造泡沫，制造泡沫之后，美国必须帮他击破泡沫，所以美国对付日本是非常辛苦的。 对付小日本可不同了，日本人更狡猾更奸诈，他们不像泰国人、越南人、香港人，赚到10块钱之后，就会拿出5块钱炒楼、炒股。只要国际热钱进来拉抬股价、楼价，然后逼迫他们提高利率，就可以击溃泡沫。 日本人这10块钱，可能都是在做实体经济，他们跟德国人一样根本就不想炒楼、炒股。德国有300万家中小企业，真正想上创业板的没有几家，为什么？他们看不起这个东西，他们想脚踏实地，一步一个脚印地把企业干好，他们没有兴趣炒股的。那你怎么狙击他呢？那么美国人就一定要帮他制造泡沫，然后再击破泡沫，很辛苦的。 各位知道日本在那个时候有多牛吗？三菱公司出资8.46亿美元收购了被称为美国的标志纽约洛克菲勒中心51%的股权，索尼公司动用了34亿美元买下了被称为美国灵魂的好莱坞哥伦比亚电影公司，松下公司出资61亿美元收购了美国环球影业公司。而且在1986年、1987年日本在夏威夷的投资就高达65亿美元以上，日本买下了珍珠港海滩区域2/3的豪华酒店，大批楼房、大餐厅、购物中心、高尔夫球场等，还有畜牧产业、种植园。所以美国人说，檀香山快变成东京的一个区了，夏威夷俨然成了供日本人修养、疗养的乐园，就像一个新的殖民地。这就是美国人的看法，所以呢你日本太嚣张了，不整治整治你怎么行呢？可是日本非常复杂，要怎么样帮他制造泡沬呢？又要怎么样帮他把泡沫击破呢？这很需要两把刷子。 首先，制造泡沫，日本人不是跟德国人一样喜欢做实体经济吗，那可不行，一定要逼迫日本人去炒股、炒楼。怎么炒股、怎么炒楼呢？想到了一个办法，1985年9月，美国、德国、法国、英国、日本五个国家，在纽约的广场酒店签订了《广场协议》，这个协议要求日币升值。怎么会要求日币升值呢？这是完全不一样的路数，对付泰国汇率贬值了；对付越南汇率贬值了；对付中国香港，他是联系汇率动不了；可是对付日本，就要让他汇率升值。这是干什么呀？兄弟们，他是想制造泡沬。结果三个月内日元兑美元由250日元升值到200日元，升幅高达20%，几个月之后变成149日元，到了1987年变成120日元，也就是说从1985年9月份250日元换1美元，到了1987年变成120日元，等于升值了一倍多。 你知道日元升值一倍多这是什么概念吗？那就是彻底地打击了日本的出口制造业，日本制造业变得无利可图。那他们能干什么呢？美国人就是要逼他们去炒楼、炒股，制造泡沫。1987年10月份，美国纽约股市崩盘，美国政府利用这次天赐良机，透过美国财政部长贝克向日本首相中曾根施加压力说，日本人你们要帮助美国老大哥一把，我们10月份纽约的股市刚刚崩盘，我们是很痛苦的，资金大量流出了，你帮帮兄弟一下吧，好吗？怎么帮呢？你们日本利率太高了，美国资金都跑到日本去了，你这样子做小老弟的不够意思，你们干脆把利率降低一点，这些国际热钱在日本赚不到利息，就回流美国，帮帮兄弟一把嘛。美国人软硬兼施，说什么如果你不帮，到时民主党上台的话，将在日美贸易赤字问题上大做文章，严厉对付你们小日本。但是你放心，贝克说我是共和党，我们如果继续执政的话，保证对你有好处，你看怎么样？你只要帮哥哥一个忙，降低利率，好不好？中曾根没办法了，好吧，结果他就降低利率，降到了只有2.5%。好，那我再问你，由于汇率到了1987年已经升值了1倍，从250日元升值到了120日元，严重打击了日本的出口制造业，让他变得无利可图的时候，日本的商社突然发现利率只有2.5%了。你说他们会干什么？他们发现这么便宜的资金，干脆向银行借钱，借钱去干吗？和我们的国有企业一样炒楼、炒股去了。所以日本人也开始在美国的双重压力之下，开始炒楼、炒股，制造泡沫。 日本国土面积狭小，人口众多，随着经济快速发展，从一片废墟上建立起来的房地产开发逐渐出现了泡沫特征。1985年东京、大阪的土地价格比第二次世界大战后初期猛涨了1万倍。尽管日本1985年的地产泡沫已经相当严重，但不少专家指出厂即使在这种情况下，日本经济泡沫破裂仍是可以避免的。日本真正的问题是在泡沫当中发生了错误的经济判断。在后来5年中，日本执行了一系列错误政策，将日本经济推入到泡沫破裂前的“最后疯狂”。那么，日本究竟作出了怎样的判断？是什么力量导致了泡沫的破裂呢？
1987年日币升值一倍，而且利率降到历史的低点2.5%，所以从1987年到1989年，股票价格涨了94%，相比1984年，1989年股票价格更是涨了368%，都市的土地价格涨了103%。所以日本开始有泡沫了。由于日本的低利率政策和日本出口制造业无利可图，结果大量的资金被借出来炒房地产，越炒越高，所以房地产价格，像东京，高得不得了，就像我们的上海、北京一样，都疯了。股票最高点被炒到多少呢？1989年12月29日，日经指数冲到了38915点，日本各地的房地产价格呢，也是不得了的涨，日本人的财富变成了20块钱。这个低利率让日本释放出多少货币？20世纪80年代初期，日本的贷款额度除上GDP是50%，到了1989年变成了100%，货币扩张速度成倍增长，因为日本各大企业借出廉价资金炒楼、炒股去了。 炒楼、炒股的下一步是什么？对付日本是完全不一样的。日币是升值的，利率是低的，你记得怎么狙击中国香港、泰国跟越南吗？一定要提高利率、打击股市，对不对？现在对付日本是降低利率，降低利率怎么打击股市呢？不行嘛。因此美国最后发明了一个“核弹”叫做“日经指数期货”和“日经指数期权”，由于这个核弹比较复杂，我们在本书下一章会详细讨论。在这儿，我们只介绍“日经指数期权”当中的“日经指数看跌期权”作为一个简单的例子。 这要说到美国的摩根士丹利，他们首先请日本人坐庄来发行“日经指数看跌期权”，他们这么忽悠日本人的，他们说今天日本的股价是100点，我们来参加你的赌局，美国人赌股价跌，日本人你赌股价涨。Yes or no?怎么赌呢？我们一参加赌局就给你10块的入场费，不管我们玩不玩，入场费都是日本人的。如果指数涨到了100点以上，我们就不玩了。如果从100点跌到60点的话，你就赔我40块。如果100点跌到30点的话呢，你就赔我70块。日本人一听，哈哈，你这个傻帽儿，我们指数怎么会跌？ 因此日本人当时认为摩根士丹利是群傻帽儿，而且基本上脑子是进水的，因为日本的股票指数怎么可能会跌呢？大家都在炒楼、炒股，一片火暴，不可能会跌。所以他们很高兴地接受这个合同，也就是说日本人认为钱太好赚了，参加赌局，一个合同就是10块钱，100个合同就是1000块钱，如果是两亿合同，那是多少钱哪？Incredible!而且美国人一定会输的，美国人傻帽儿，怎么可能会跌呢？以至于日本到底签了多少合同我们都不知道，不但日本的大公司签，小公司也跟着签，简直就是个天文数字。 1989年12月29日，日本股指到达了38915点。我们突然发现，在1990年的1月12日，美国人开始用“核弹”轰炸日本，美国的交易所突然出现了日经指数看跌期权，而且这个看跌期权信誉特别好，因为他们是由高盛来做的，而且高盛为了让这个期权更有价值，还转实给丹麦政府，让丹麦政府来背书，而且高盛本身就是世界上一流的投行，再加上丹麦政府的背书，所以期权信誉度非常高，结果在1990年1月2日竟然在美国股票交易所挂牌上市。这是什么结果呢？那就是让全世界的资金来打压日本股票，你只要把它从100点打到了20点的话，你就可以赚80块，即使扣掉10块成本也还剩70块。 因此全世界一起打击日本股票，以便从这个日经指数看跌期权赚钱，结果日经指数被狂打到谷底。从此以后，日本和中国香港、泰国、越南是一样的命运。只是美国哥们儿厉害，用的方法完全不同，可是结果是一样的，就是让你股市跟楼市完全破灭，最后日本人的财富还是跌到了5块钱。 1991年，在泡沫破裂之前，日本银行总贷款额达到当年国民生产总值的90%，而美国仅为37%。日本上千家财务公司和投资公司等跻身房地产金融行业，总金额高达40万亿日元。这些金融机构为泡沫源源不断输送能量直到最后一刻。泡沫破裂后，许多日本居民成为千万“负翁”，倒闭和被收购的银行和房地产公司不计其数，国民经济陷入了长期的负增长和零增长。那么，日本的泡沫故事又带给我们怎样的启示呢？
好了，日本的股票市场崩盘，首先波及到日本的银行业跟保险业，最终是制造业，因为企业向银行跟保险公司借了大量的钱，而且又不干制造业，和我们一样，都拿去炒楼、炒股。从1990年日经指数暴跌开始，日本陷入了长达二十几年的衰退，到今天日本还没有脱离萧条。日本股市总共暴跌了70%，房地产市场连续14年下跌，到现在都没复苏。在《金融战败》一书中，作者吉川元忠认为，就财富损失的比例而言，日本1990年金融战败的后果几乎和第二次世界大战中战败的后果相当，就这么严重。我不晓得各位读者心里有什么感觉？ 震撼世界的经济危机的主犯是美国，这是毫无疑义的。而本书想强调的是“仅凭美国是不能引起此次经济危机的”，一定有“共犯”。“共犯”就是为美国提供资金的国家，具体地讲就是日本、中国和欧佩克。这些国家均是对美贸易顺差国，它们把通过国际贸易赚得的美元投给了美国。也就是说，这些贸易顺差经由资本交易回流到美国。另外，由于日本长期实施超低利率政策和政府干预汇市，致使借日元投资美元的“日元套利交易”行为泛滥。这种套利交易使日元进一步贬值，日本出口进一步扩大，同时也催生了美国的住宅价格泡沫和金融泡沫。也就是说，“向全世界（尤其是美国）散发低成本的资金”是日本的“罪状”。 虽说日本是“共犯”，但并没有享受到太多的利益。从日本整体来看，我强烈地感觉到日本被主犯美国“利用”了，并且今后还要为此付出更大的代价。这就是书名用“罚”字的理由。 事实上，我们已经受到了一定的惩罚，由于异常的日元贬值正向正常水平回归，日本持有的外国资产已经发生巨额损失，其规模接近因美国次贷危机造成的世界金融机构总损失额的一半。 日本该受“罚”的不只是外币资产的贬值，今后还将遭受未曾有过的经济不景气的袭击。 第一波袭击——出口企业减产、业绩大幅度下滑，相关企业破产并导致失业人数大幅度增加（这一波袭击基本完成）。第二波袭击——因金融机构的不良资产增加和股价下跌导致自有资本减少。这种不景气事态是我们所未曾经历过的，所以很难准确地预测危机在未来的哪个时点爆发。 日本政府又是如何应对的呢？其一是发放定额的补助金。这种应对策略除了“为选举赚取人气”外，看不出有什么实质性的意义。其二是实施卖空管制和现价冻结金融商品。这种应对策略的实质就是把即将暴露的问题隐藏起来。由此可见，政府是不可信的，面对即将到来的危机，我们只能自卫。现在最重要的就是要发挥每一个人的能力，改变日本的社会结构。 本文摘选自［日］野口悠纪雄的《日本的反省：依赖美国的罪与罚》