Home Categories political economy Lang Xianping said: Why is our life so difficult

Chapter 11 Chapter 10 Why Our Housing Reform Is So Difficult II: The Chongqing Model

Encounter a mysterious VIP, who brings surprises? I expected Zhou Xun or Zhang Ziyi to be sitting next to me, but an old man came and sat down. 40 million square meters of low-rent housing plan, Chongqing real estate face-changing scale is astonishing. Starting next year, it will attract 3 million migrant workers to the city.As long as you have a job, you will be given a Chongqing hukou. What is the significance of the Chongqing model in launching a new urban plan? Therefore, the Chongqing model can finally build a stable real estate market, which is what we need. Since our government always presses down the crater with a big rock when regulating property prices, where is our way out?Simply put, the only real way out is to resolve the volcanic crisis. On June 12, 2010, the news that the seven major ministries jointly launched the Chongqing model attracted me.

I was a little surprised to see this media report, because the Chongqing model directly solved the volcano problem I raised. How did our government suddenly improve?Seems a bit unexpected to me.Therefore, I hesitate to talk about their so-called Chongqing plan. On June 13th, I flew back to Shanghai from Chongqing, and I expected Zhou Xun or Zhang Ziyi to sit next to me, so that I could chat and relieve the loneliness of the journey.As a result, there was an older person sitting next to me, and I was really depressed.Upon closer inspection, it turned out to be Huang Qifan, the mayor of Chongqing.Of course, he might also look forward to meeting Zhou Xun, so he doesn't seem very happy either.Since neither of us can meet Zhou Xun, we can only chat with each other about the Chongqing model.

Chongqing, located in the depths of the Chinese mainland, is becoming the most eye-catching star city in China.Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the economy of the coastal areas has encountered difficulties, while Chongqing's GDP has increased by as much as 14.3%.More and more people are talking about whether China's deep economic reform is entering Chongqing time.The characteristics of the Chongqing model are not limited to GDP. On June 12, 2010, the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Public Rental Housing" jointly formulated by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other seven departments was officially released. The media believes that this opinion marks the rise of public rental housing to the national strategy. .Before that, on June 8, the "Interim Measures for the Management of Public Rental Housing in Chongqing City" had been issued. This is the first government interim measure for the management of public rental housing in China, and a large-scale improvement of new housing has entered the actual operation stage.Then, how does the Chongqing plan adjust the real estate policy, and what is the significance of the Chongqing model for China's economic development?


On April 17, 2010, the State Council issued the "Notice on Resolutely Containing Excessive Rise of Housing Prices in Some Cities", commonly known as the "Ten Measures of the New Country", and started another round of regulation to curb the excessive rise of commodity housing prices. On May 21, Chongqing Municipality announced the detailed rules for real estate regulation, namely the "Chongqing Ten Rules".Surprisingly, the detailed rules actually include tax incentives and financial subsidies for the purchase of the first set of commercial housing.So, how does Chongqing understand the housing price control policy?Where is the coup of the Chongqing model?

The Chongqing model is very simple, that is to cut off the second conduit of the volcano theory I mentioned earlier and dilute the magma at the same time.Chongqing City has decided to build 40 million square meters of public rental housing at an average price of 2,000 yuan per square meter in the next three years.Such a scale has sincerity!For example, Shanghai launched a lottery for 427 affordable housing units in July 2010. How dare such a dishonest number be released?I blush for the leaders of Shanghai for doing such a shoddy image project.The total investment in Chongqing is 100 billion yuan, of which 30% comes from the local government's land investment, and 70% comes from social financing platforms, such as social security funds.The rate of return on social security funds stored in banks is currently 2%.According to Chongqing's practice, 40 million square meters of public rental housing can be charged 60% of the market price to give the social security fund a 4% rate of return, so of course they are willing to invest.This large-scale investment cut off the second conduit of the volcano.

According to the plan, in 2010 Chongqing will start construction of 5 million square meters of public rental housing. From 2010 to 2020, the total construction scale of public rental housing in the main urban area of ​​Chongqing will reach about 20 million square meters, and the outer suburbs and counties will build 20 million square meters of public rental housing according to the urbanization process.The rent price of public rental housing is within 60% of the market rent price, and the rent collected is mainly used to pay the interest of the house construction fee, and the lease period is up to 5 years.So, who will be the beneficiaries of public rental housing?


Since Chongqing can do it, why can't other places do it?It can be seen that it is not impossible, but simply unwilling to do it.Our local governments at all levels are very interested in selling land, but not so interested in working for the common people.Of course, local governments have also made many excuses. For example, the central government takes 60% of the money and only does 30% of the work, while the local government only takes 40% of the money and has to do 70% of the work. Since there are not enough financial resources , the only thing left is to sell the land, which is the origin of land finance.Not only that, land finance and real estate development are so closely related, corruption is inevitable.

Who will live in a large number of public rental housing in Chongqing?According to the current planning of Chongqing City, three types of people live there.First, working migrant workers; second, working college graduates; third, low-income families with a housing area of ​​less than 13 square meters, personal income of 2,000 yuan, and family income of less than 3,000 yuan.However, the rent-seeking phenomena of Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the underground parking garages of affordable housing in many cities have aroused public grievances. How to solve this problem?Chongqing adopts the approach of lenient entry and strict exit. For these three types of people, the eighteen generations of their ancestors are basically not checked. This is "lenient entry". Of course, power rent seekers can also enter easily, but they must ".Public rental housing is low-rent housing. After living in it for 5 years, you can buy it and turn it into affordable housing. This can be interpreted as the trinity of public rental, low-rent housing and affordable housing.But if you want to sell it in the future, you can only sell it to the government at the price of affordable housing at that time, so it is basically unprofitable.As long as the export is strictly controlled so that these powerful people cannot make high profits, they will not come in, and they will not do unprofitable things.The policy of lenient entry and strict exit is as simple as that, and officials in other places will not be surprised. Then why do various governments allow affordable housing to be sold at the price of commercial housing after 5 years of living?Obviously, it is to provide a lucrative outlet for the involvement of corrupt officials.Some people are worried, will public rental housing form new slums in the future?Because the people who live there are either migrant workers, college graduates, or low-income groups.At present, the planning of public rental housing in Chongqing accounts for 20%, and commercial housing accounts for 80%.Among the 21 residential buildings currently planned to be built, the public rental housing is all scattered in various commercial housing complexes, rather than self-contained, so it will not become a slum.

Chongqing launched the country's largest public rental housing construction plan, which was evaluated by the media as a far-sighted government action.As the country clarifies the policy orientation of public rental housing, the construction of public rental housing will become a new hot spot in the next two years, thus forming a breakthrough for a new round of housing system reform.So, what problems will such a large-scale housing construction bring?What tests are hidden in the new wave of urbanization?
Readers must have doubts, how much farmland will be occupied to build 40 million square meters of public rental housing?In order to solve this problem, Chongqing introduced the land ticket system.Starting from 2011, Chongqing will gradually absorb 3 million migrant workers into the city, and as long as you have a job, you will be given a Chongqing hukou, but you must give up your homestead and return it to farmland.How does this work?Assume that after a migrant worker enters the city and obtains an urban household registration, he converts one acre of homestead into farmland, so that he can get a one-acre land ticket.In the future, developers in Chongqing will have to buy land tickets through public auctions before they can build houses.According to our data, the average transaction price of land tickets in 2009 was more than 100,000 yuan per mu. In April 2010, the auction price of land tickets per mu was as high as 144,000 yuan.The money from these auctions is directly handed over to the farmers, who can take the money to the cities for consumption.The final result of this land ticket system is an increase in the area of ​​cultivated land.why?Taking one mu of land as an example, if one farmer moves out, the land ticket for one mu of land will be vacated, and one mu of land can build a high-rise building in the city and support 100 households.Therefore, with the land ticket system, one peasant household is exchanged for 100 urban households in one building.The result of this replacement is that the rural land will not decrease, but will increase.

According to the analysis of Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan, the gap between Chongqing and the whole country is mainly due to the gap between rural areas. From the beginning of 1997 when Chongqing was directly under the central government to the present, the urbanization rate of the permanent population is only 51%, and millions of migrant workers still remain farmers. The identity of the year round trip between the city and the countryside.So, on this basis, what method will Huang Qifan rely on to achieve the goal of turning 3 million migrant workers into citizens in 2012 and 10 million rural residents by 2020?

What will these 3 million migrant workers do after they enter the city?Gotta have a job, right?Chongqing has put forward a grand plan to build an IT industry.For example, Chongqing introduced Hewlett-Packard and plans to produce 40 million notebooks within three years, while the global production of notebooks in 2008 was only 160 million.It also introduced Cisco, saying that within three years, it will produce 10 billion US dollars of servers and routers.At the same time, he is also actively introducing other IT giants. Huang Qifan told me their names, but I hope I will not disclose them, because they are still in the negotiation stage.On the whole, this is a brand-new IT development model, because in the past in the coastal areas, 80% of the spare parts of the IT industry were imported from overseas.But the Chongqing model is that 80% of the spare parts are produced in Chongqing.why?Because if the products of HP and Cisco are produced in large quantities, supporting factories such as Foxconn and Quanta are naturally willing to produce in Chongqing.As long as Foxconn and Quanta come here, their spare parts suppliers will follow.It is through this new business model that an IT industry that is completely different from that in the coastal areas has developed.Moreover, the cost of flying from Chongqing to the United States and Europe is the same as flying from Shanghai and Beijing to the United States and Europe, because the computers are all shipped by air. In fact, the superiority of the Chongqing model is not that they simply built some public rental housing, but that they introduced an unprecedented new concept of system engineering, that is, through the three steps of 40 million square meters of public rental housing, the land ticket system and the new IT model An unprecedented system engineering has been constructed to solve the problem of difficult housing.Moreover, in order to solve the housing problem in Chongqing, they have changed the past poor practice of the government directly pressing down a big rock on the crater to treat the head and feet, and directly solved the volcanic problem I raised, that is, through 40 million Square meters of public rental housing cut off the second conduit.Besides, why would an international giant like Hewlett-Packard go to an inland city?It is because the Chongqing municipal government is actively improving the investment and business environment, and improving the investment and business environment will make the lava of the volcano be diluted faster, because there are more and better investment opportunities, and everyone is willing to invest. A large number of real economies Funds are no longer used to speculate in real estate and stocks, thus diluting the magma. Readers will definitely ask me that although Chongqing cut the second conduit and diluted the magma, the first conduit was not cut off, and the volcanic magma could not subside immediately, and it would still erupt along the first conduit, so why? manage?The attitude of Chongqing City is very clear, that is, the dual-track system, the price of commercial housing will rise as it should, and the government will not interfere. The government's job is to build a large number of public rental housing to meet the housing needs of the three types of people mentioned above.I still hold a positive attitude towards this thinking. "According to the Chongqing model, the west can defeat the Yangtze River Delta," this is Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan's public statement to the media.The Chongqing model is going out of the way of controlling the real estate market by simply suppressing housing prices, and completing a new real estate pattern of "low-end security, mid-end market, and high-end containment".With Beijing planning to allocate more than 50% of the land to build price-limited housing and public rental housing, and Shenzhen to introduce a new housing security system that is not restricted by household registration, the "secondary housing reform" in Chinese cities has become more and more serious. clear.
Finally, I would like to remind readers that the leaders of Chongqing must have great ability, energy and time to handle such a large system project. If there is a problem in one link, the whole system may collapse.Of course, I can't predict the result, but at least the Chongqing model has given us a new hope, that is, some of our local governments can still solve the housing problem. As long as Chongqing can do it, other cities can do it too.I call on local leaders at all levels to think carefully about how to build a system project suitable for local development and help ordinary people truly solve their housing problems. Only in this way can our country gradually enter a harmonious society. Readers must be curious, how can the government cut the first catheter?Do we have an actual case?Also, I think Guangdong's experience can be used for reference, but this is by no means the only way.Shenzhen implemented a new approach on December 1, 2009, called the "Shenzhen Urban Renewal Measures".The method stipulates that the obligee can act as the main body of the renewal and transformation, finance and renovate by itself, without the need for unified bidding, auction and listing.This unified bid, auction and listing itself is the first "conduit" I mentioned earlier.You know, it is because of this bidding, auction and listing that the real estate developer and the government have a joint monopoly, which led to the eruption of volcanic magma. The specific operation method in Guangdong is that the villages in the city have one person, one vote, and elect their trusted management and chairman to negotiate with developers on behalf of the people.This is why we can see big red banners hanging at the entrances of villages in the city, and the banners read "The sooner you sign the contract and relocate, the sooner you realize a happy life."Some media wrote that "a group of old houses fell, and how many rich people stood up".Some owners said, "I won't sell my house for any money, and I have to wait for the demolition."Of course, these are all reported by the media, and I cannot guarantee its authenticity.I still have a few data reported by the media for readers to refer to, and I am not sure about the authenticity.The reconstruction of the old city in Gangxia Village produced 10 billionaires and dozens of multi-millionaires, and Dachong Village in Nanshan District also produced more than a dozen billionaires and more than 400 multi-millionaires.These villages are called urban villages behind Shenzhen CBD. Of course, some villages have the ability to develop by themselves, they don't seek real estate developers at all, they can develop by themselves.For example, the renovation of Tianxia New Village in Shenzhen is a model of self-development.How do common people invest?The villagers all use his homestead as a stake.After it is built, in addition to living in it, you can also sell it, thus enriching many people.This model is a new competition model outside the monopoly of real estate developers, which cuts off the first conduit. Although this model has been criticized as Tuli's so-called "rentier class", that is to say, in the process of urbanization, the residents of the suburban fringe are the biggest beneficiaries.For example, one appeared in Shenzhen. He had never done anything, and just because God gave him birth in this village, he enjoyed the benefit of cutting off the first catheter and became a very rich man.Of course, we can also, as in the past, force demolition, drive out the "rentier class", buy the land back at a minimum price, and then sacrifice the interests of the common people to benefit real estate developers and let them make huge profits. You can also enjoy the benefits of being bribed.Which one do you think we choose?Cutting off the first conduit is not to seek the best, but to seek a less bad result.Since he owns the land, you should respect his rights, at least you can maintain a harmonious situation, at least you are a rich village.If the demolition is forced and a very low compensation is given, the government can only enrich a real estate developer.In my opinion, it is better for a village to be richer than a real estate developer.But we can't just cut off the first "conduit" and enrich a village.What about migrant workers?Leave them alone?They came to the city penniless and can only live by working. They do not have a homestead in a village in the city, so it is impossible to get rich by cutting off the first conduit, so what should we do?So to cut off the second conduit like Chongqing did, it is very important to provide them with public rental housing. human aversion to uncertainty Even taking into account the difficulty of shooting factors, 3-point shooting scores are still higher.For the reasons for this, let us think about it in conjunction with the imagination of the actual game. He Lu's basketball team fell behind the opponent by 5 points.Only 3 minutes left.If you try your best to prevent the opponent from scoring, it seems that you have to get back 6 points to win. Rounding up the numbers just now, 40% of the 3-point shots were made and 50% of the 2-point shots were made. Not only is it difficult to hit a 3-point shot, but it also fluctuates depending on the state of the shot, while the shooting percentage of a 2-point shot is relatively stable.To regain 6 points, there are two tactical options:
2 point shot + 3 shot plan 3 point shot + 2 shot plan This article is excerpted from [Japanese] Shin Tae-joon's "Familiar with Financial Knowledge in 5 Hours"
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