Chapter 10 Chapter 09 Why Our Housing Reform Is So Difficult One: Volcano Theory
The regulation of housing prices gave birth to the "real estate volcano theory".
What the real estate bubble and the stock market bubble symbolize is the beginning of a future crisis and the eruption of a volcano.
Two major cruxes revealed the suspense of blowout in the property market.
So more and more lava and lava came out through these two pipelines that were not closed.
To subdue the "real estate volcano", the "Lang-style plan" was exposed.
If you want to solve the problem of housing prices, it is impossible to do it in one step. It is a very complicated process, and you have to do several steps.
Recently, we have gone crazy again, and the National Ten Articles came out, and there are already many national ones, and I don’t know how many there are.The second national article and the third national article have come out. I think it should be numbered like this, starting from 001, country 001, country 002, and now it should be country 90.Governments at all levels are competing to see who will suppress housing prices the most.The government's measures to suppress property prices are basically wrong, because the essence of rising property prices has not been understood at all.I want to use the volcano theory to explain the nature of rising house prices.
On April 14, 2010, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council hosted an executive meeting of the State Council to study and deploy policies to curb the rapid rise of housing prices in some cities, and proposed four measures, namely the new "four national measures", including the purchase of second homes with loans For households, the down payment of loans shall not be lower than 50%, and the loan interest rate shall not be lower than 1.1 times of the benchmark interest rate.This means that only three months after the "National Eleven Measures" released in January 2010, a new round of housing price regulation has begun. On April 17, the "Notice of the State Council on Resolutely Curbing the Excessive Rise of Housing Prices in Some Cities", that is, the new "National Ten Articles" was released.With the promulgation of a series of intensive policies by the State Council and relevant departments, major banks have successively announced adjustments to the implementation of mortgage interest rates and loan conditions. New houses in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have begun to be sold at discounts. There is also a relatively concentrated wave of check-outs in central cities.According to statistics during the "May 1st" holiday, the sales volume in Beijing fell by 65% year-on-year, in Shanghai by 52%, in Nanjing by 95%, and in Shenzhen by 79%.Known as the most stringent housing price regulation in history, it has shown the power of the policy.So, where will China's real estate prices go?What will be the impact of regulating house prices?Is there a good way to cure the ills of the real estate market?
Let's first look at how volcanic magma is formed. In the second half of 2006, there was a property market bubble and a stock market bubble in China. I think this is because our economy is sick.To be more specific, the investment and business environment has deteriorated in an all-round way, so many entrepreneurs use the money that should be invested in enterprises to speculate in real estate and stocks, thus creating a bubble.The funds entering the property market can be interpreted as volcanic magma.Just as this fiery lava was poised to erupt, our government inserted two catheters. The first conduit: ordinary people cannot build houses by themselves, they must buy houses from developers.What does it mean?For example, our young men and women are basically in free love. Only those men and women who are not very good at dating and can’t eat well need to go to a marriage agency.If one day the government suddenly orders that free love is not allowed, and free love will not be issued a marriage certificate, and the government stipulates that they must go to a marriage agency.Do you know what the result is?Since there is no competition for free love, the intermediary fees of marriage agencies will immediately rise sharply through monopoly.How is this different from real estate?We can't buy land and build houses by ourselves now, but we have to buy from developers. This is like a dating agency, causing developers to monopolize, and the price will definitely go up.Why doesn't the government let us build our own houses?The government thinks that we won't build it, it will be messy and difficult to manage, right?How can the Germans?The German government has very clear regulations on self-built houses. The height of the house in which area, the color of the roof, and the shape of the windows are all clearly stipulated. You only need to construct according to the drawings. What’s the problem?We will talk about the relaxation of this regulation in Shenzhen in 2010 and the introduction of a competition mechanism in later chapters. The second conduit: the lack of affordable housing and low-rent housing.By the end of 2009, the Singapore government had built a total of 992,000 sets of affordable housing, ensuring housing for 85% of the common people.Moreover, Singapore is not based on cost accounting, but based on the income of ordinary people. It is guaranteed that ordinary people can buy a house with six years of income.There are only 15% of commercial housing in Singapore like ours, and the price of commercial housing for 15% of people is 40,000 to 50,000 yuan per square meter. In some western countries, housing is clearly defined as a public affair, and thus is guaranteed by legislation.For example, the United Kingdom promulgated the "Housing and Town Planning Act" in 1919, which clearly stipulates that housing issues are public affairs, and the government should provide support for public housing construction. Between 1946 and 1951, the British government was responsible for building 78% of the country's total housing.The Netherlands promulgated the "Housing Law" in 1901, which clearly stipulates that the government should provide subsidies for public housing construction and formulate building regulations. The government plays a decisive role in the housing market, and "providing adequate housing" is the responsibility of the government. In 1974, the Netherlands promulgated the "White Paper on Rent and Subsidies", emphasizing that "the goal of housing policy is to provide suitable housing for low-income groups."The United States issued the "Housing Act" in 1937, making it clear that the government is responsible for the construction of public housing for low-income families, and the occupants only need to pay lower rents.Since then, the "Housing and Urban Development Law" and the "Housing and Community Development Law" have been promulgated successively, and the public characteristics of housing have been guaranteed.So, what kind of changes has our country experienced in the understanding of housing?
So what kind of people in Hong Kong can enjoy government subsidies?Those with a monthly income of more than 60,000 Hong Kong dollars must purchase commercial housing from private developers; those with a monthly salary between 26,000 and 60,000, the government provides low-interest loans and supply housing at preferential prices; Those with a monthly income of less than 11,000 can enjoy low-rent housing. The rent is very cheap, with an average price of HK$1,320 per month.Hong Kong is a city with very strict regulations. As a result of strict implementation, 50% of the people in Hong Kong have government subsidies.In order to solve the housing problems of ordinary people, the government uses public resources to build public housing, including low-rent housing and affordable housing. Did we have this concept in the past?some. In 1998, the National Article 23 came out. At that time, it stipulated that 80% of affordable housing, 10% of low-rent housing, and the remaining 10% were real commercial housing.Therefore, from 1998 until 2003, housing prices were very stable.But since 2003, the government has introduced the 18 National Articles. Our government secretly changed the concept and changed 80% of the affordable housing into commercial housing with security features. Isn’t this commodity housing?Until now, almost 100% of them have become commercial housing. Our local governments are not interested in building affordable housing and low-rent housing. Their reason is that the central government takes 60% of the tax, but only does 30% of the work. , while the local government takes 40% of the tax, but has to do 70% of the work, so the finances are tight, and the budget must be maintained by selling land.Our government has pushed all the people's demand for housing to the commercial housing market.How can our disadvantaged groups, including college graduates and migrant workers, be able to afford commercial housing? The 2003 policy was doomed as soon as it was introduced. Now that we are talking about Singapore and Hong Kong, China, I would like to take this opportunity to tell us how local governments at all levels should learn from their new thinking on land finance. The first thought: Let’s look at Hong Kong. In 2007, the Hong Kong government’s land sales revenue was HK$13.3 billion, accounting for 0.8% of CDP.In 2007, the income from land sales in mainland China accounted for 4% of GDP, which was five times higher than that in Hong Kong.By 2009, Hong Kong's land sales revenue accounted for 1.53% of GDP, while our mainland's land sales revenue accounted for as high as 4.5% of GDP.So compared with Hong Kong, you will find that our mainland relies on land finance to a greater extent, and this is only the national average.If it is specific to local governments, such as Beijing, land sales revenue accounts for as high as 50% of fiscal revenue, which is not known how many times that of Hong Kong, because Hong Kong only accounts for about 1.53%a. The second thinking: Hong Kong and Singapore not only ensure the efficiency of land use but also increase fiscal revenue through high land prices and high housing prices, thereby maintaining low tax rates.Income tax is only 8.5% for those with an annual income of less than 300,000 Singapore dollars, and 17% for those with an annual income of more than 300,000 Singapore dollars. The third thinking: Singapore’s industrial land is mainly leased, while Hong Kong, China is mainly for sale. The industrial land in Hong Kong is as high as 80,000 Hong Kong dollars per square meter, the most expensive in the world.Therefore, Hong Kong's manufacturing industry has collapsed across the board, and it can only engage in the service industry and the financial industry.Singapore provides absolutely low prices through the government's absolute monopoly, and 80% of the industrial land is concentrated in the Jurong Group established by the government's Ministry of Industry and Trade.Rental prices range from S$200 to S$280 per square meter.So Singapore has a very prosperous manufacturing industry because of the excellent planning of the Singapore government. On August 12, 2003, the State Council issued the "Notice on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", which changed the economical housing from "housing supply main body" to "policy commodity housing with guarantee nature", and defined the real estate industry as " It is a "pillar industry" that promotes consumption, expands domestic demand, and stimulates investment growth.With the prosperity of the real estate market and the rapid rise of housing prices, the publicity of housing in our country has gradually weakened.In addition to its own problems, the rapid development of my country's real estate market is also boosted by external economic factors.So, what are the external economic factors of Lingtian real estate market?What is the essential problem of high housing prices?
As a result of our government's insertion of these two catheters, the volcanic magma erupted rapidly.For example, why was there a property market bubble in 2006?It is because the investment and business environment faced by our manufacturing-based private entrepreneurs has begun to deteriorate in an all-round way. This is the first disease of our economy. Therefore, a large amount of manufacturing funds have left the real economy and entered the real estate market, so volcanic lava began to produce.In addition, the government inserted two catheters, causing a volcanic eruption, and housing prices soared. Unfortunately, when the financial tsunami broke out in November 2008, our exports were hit hard, and the products manufactured by many factories could not be sold, resulting in overcapacity, so there was a second problem, called overcapacity.In order to cope with the financial tsunami, the government has stimulated domestic demand through 4 trillion yuan, ten industrial revitalization plans, sending automobiles, home appliances, and building materials to the countryside, and engaging in infrastructure construction through bank credit.In fact, these policies are using tomorrow's overcapacity to digest today's overcapacity.For example, 4 trillion yuan is invested in the construction of expressways in the Midwest. After the construction is completed, there will be basically no cars running on them, and expressways without cars can only be called expressways with overcapacity.However, steel and cement are needed during construction, so the excess capacity of these two can be temporarily resolved.I don’t know if the government has thought about it. Once the expressway is built, there will be a new overcapacity immediately because there will be no cars running on it. Since steel and cement are no longer needed, these two industries will be brought back to their original forms. become overcapacity.China's overcapacity has worsened on top of the excess capacity created by hurting exports.As a result, from August 26, 2009 to the middle of 2010, many industries experienced overcapacity, including steel, cement, flat glass, coal chemical industry, polysilicon, wind power, electrolytic aluminum, fertilizer, electric power, coal, and coke. , non-ferrous metals, papermaking, tanning, printing and dyeing, building materials, light industry, textiles, etc. In recent years, the investment and business environment faced by our entrepreneurs is worse than that in 2406. In addition, we have a second disease, which is serious overcapacity, which makes a large amount of funds of entrepreneurs leave the real economy and enter the property market. As a result, the magma increased.In addition, inflation has risen again recently. Even if it is to escape inflation, do ordinary people dare to invest their funds in the real economy?dare not.Why not?Because the two diseases have not been resolved.So in order to escape inflation, where should these funds flow?property market.This adds even more to the magma.Since the two pipes were not cut off, they could not fall in love freely, and because affordable housing and low-rent housing were not built, more and more lava erupted through the two pipes that were not closed. In recent years, the State Council and relevant ministries and commissions have successively issued a series of policies to regulate real estate and stabilize housing prices, and speculative housing purchases have been initially suppressed.However, housing prices in some big cities have risen too fast, the supply of small and medium-sized ordinary housing is insufficient, the regulatory mechanism is not perfect, and urban residents' satisfaction with housing issues is still low. On August 7, 2007, the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Solving the Housing Difficulties of Low-income Families in Urban Areas", which regards solving the housing difficulties of low-income families as the main task of safeguarding the interests of the masses and an important part of the reform of the housing system.So, why does the government prioritize the housing difficulties of low-income families?If we can't do a good job of counseling in advance, what will be the consequences of simply suppressing real estate prices?
Why did property price regulation fail in the past?That's because the government always wants to put a big rock directly on the crater to block the magma.And this big rock cannot withstand the eruption of volcanic lava.Because the temperature of volcanic lava is too high, it will melt the big rocks.This is why regulation and control in the past had only a short-term effect, and they all failed in the end. So how can our government really solve the problem?These two pipelines must be sealed and the magma diluted at the same time.The correct approach for the government should be, first, allow free love; second, build affordable housing and low-rent housing on a large scale.Only in this way can these two pipelines be sealed.At the same time, how to dissolve the magma?That is to help entrepreneurs improve their investment and operating environment and reduce overcapacity. Entrepreneur funds and risk-avoiding funds are willing to invest in the real economy, and the melt is naturally diluted.But instead of following the right path to solve the volcano problem, we plan to introduce a property tax instead.Do you know what would happen if the introduction of the estate tax was made?Real estate tax is equivalent to finding an extraterrestrial rock from Mars and pressing it directly on the crater.Does it mean that the rocks above this kind of universe are particularly resistant to high temperatures?Is it really possible to hold down the crater? Since my country launched the reform of the housing system in the 1980s, especially since the end of housing distribution in kind in 1988, residents' housing consumption has been effectively launched.With the continuous acceleration of urban housing construction, the area of residential housing continues to expand, the quality of living continues to improve, and housing conditions have been significantly improved. Problems such as the fact that the housing security system has not really been established and perfected have also been exposed.With the commercialization of housing, the housing-based real estate industry has become the main pillar industry of the national economy.If it is necessary to strengthen the government's public responsibility to improve the real estate system, then as a pillar industry, how should it avoid the possible risks of suppressing housing prices?
First of all, we have to figure out what property tax actually refers to.At first it was called property tax, then it was called property tax, and now some people say property tax, property tax, special consumption tax and so on.The land in our country has been nationalized since the amendment of the Constitution in 1982.In fact, in the 1954 Constitution, it was still recognized that farmers owned land and related means of production, but it was changed in the 1982 Constitution.Because the collection of property tax requires a legislative procedure of the National People’s Congress, the property tax was proposed. The provisional regulations on property tax were passed in 1986, and taxation is carried out on commercial housing, but non-commercial and self-occupied housing is not allowed. taxed.And because it is difficult to collect this type of tax, some local tax bureaus have combined with some neighborhood committees to conduct comprehensive tax collection by rewarding reporting. In the past few years, due to the formation of volcanic magma, the government has inserted two more conduits, causing housing prices to soar, thus offending all those who cannot afford a house.As a result of the government's further property tax, it will offend all those who can afford a house.As a result, the common people all over the country were offended, so what about the foundation of the government's governance?The World Bank's report "Reform of Urban Property Tax, Guiding Principles and Recommendations" gave a shocking conclusion - "property tax will inevitably bear a very heavy political price", I think this sentence is the most appropriate for our government .I hope our government will not be misled by those shameless, hateful pet economists.Where are these scholars so hateful?They are a group of dogs raised by the powerful and the rich. When the government wants to make a certain policy, they will neither consider the problem from the standpoint of the common people nor from the scientific point of view, but will only rush to do it. Flatter, express your opinion.For example, these pet scholars pointed out that the collection of real estate tax has obviously increased the cost of housing ownership, and hit speculators holding vacant housing even more, reducing their income from real estate speculation, so that funds can be directed to Reasonable economic fields, etc.These comments are basically bullshit.For example, Guosen Securities once pointed out so nonsense that under the circumstances that the introduction of property tax is immature, gradually promoting property tax reform will weaken the property of real estate as an investment product, help stabilize housing prices, and change people's psychological expectations. I would like to ask these scholars, what is the essence of property tax?Is it used to suppress housing prices?You got even the basic idea wrong.In the United States, land is privately owned, so it is reasonable for land owners to pay property taxes.If an American finds oil on his own land, it belongs to him personally, because the land is privately owned.And our land belongs to the government, and we have no basis for privatization to pay property taxes.The real estate developer has already paid the transfer fee, and the transfer fee is similar to the rent, which means that we have already paid the rent.How can there be any reason to pay property taxes for the government that owns the land after paying the rent?How can the government collect whatever it wants?Whether the government calls it property tax, real estate tax, or real estate tax, it is illegal anyway.What would happen if we found oil under the land we built our houses on?Definitely forced to demolish and drive us all away. Moreover, the purpose of the property tax in the United States is not to suppress housing prices, but to increase the value of housing prices, hide wealth among the people, and allow ordinary people to obtain higher value.For example, according to the practice of the United States, the United States collects an average property tax of 1.38%, 28% of this property tax goes to the township government, 22% goes to the county government, and only 4% goes to the state government, a total of 54%.But you have to know that there are actually very few government officials in the township and county governments in the United States.A government official of a county government may only) have three people, one is in charge of justice, one is for marriage certificates, certificate inspection, and an administrative officer.The number of people in their county government is even smaller than that of one of our street committees. Why?Because the U.S. government is very efficient, the American people will not spend money to support so many government officials, unlike us, there are officials everywhere! After local governments in the United States receive property taxes, they will use 54% of them to hire police officers to improve law and order, build construction and improve the environment, and the remaining 46% of property taxes will be used to improve education.The annual budget for public primary and secondary education in the United States is 300 billion US dollars, all of which come from the 46% property tax. 99% of Americans go to public schools, from kindergarten to high school graduation, a total of 13 years, all free of charge, some wealthy schools also have free lunch, this is what is really taken from the people and used by the people. All expenditures of the U.S. government have very clear records, and ordinary people can check them online at any time, unlike our government's budget, which is simply a mess.The local public security, environment, and schools have all improved, and housing prices have naturally risen.As for the value-added part, the U.S. government collects 1.38% of the real estate tax, and the remaining 98.62% goes to the real estate owner.That's why Americans are more than happy to pay property taxes, because properties increase in value.Then I would like to ask my friends, if our government takes the property tax, it can spend every penny on our environment, on the education of our children, on our personal safety protection, all on Are you willing to pay for the flowers and trees in our neighborhood and the environmental sanitation in our neighborhood?Of course you would. The essence of American property tax is worth exploring because we cannot personally improve our living environment, community security, and school education. Therefore, we must use the government to collect property taxes from all of us to help us improve the environment on a large scale. , Improve law and order, improve schools, so that our real estate can increase in value.For ordinary people in the United States, they can enjoy so many benefits through the government with only 1.38% of their money each year, and so many benefits are beyond my personal reach, and must be obtained through the public power of the government. Let people in all communities pay real estate taxes at the same time, and only then can we achieve the goals of improving the environment, security, and education.Therefore, the US property tax is to increase the value of real estate, thereby hiding wealth among the people.However, our scholars propose to suppress housing prices through property taxes, and they simply don't understand the basic concepts.I used to say that these scholars would be very angry, but now I won't either, so why bother with them?There are so many poor people who live by talking nonsense, forget it, don't bother with them, anyway, no one listens to them, right? Do you know how property taxes are levied in the United States?The most honest and dedicated people are elected by the residents as real estate appraisers.Generally, two people who don't know each other come to the house to make an assessment together, measure the area of the house, register the number of houses, including how many bathrooms there are, and so on.Then after registration, two people will make evaluations separately, and then all will be made public online.Residents can find all the information.If you think it is too high, you can find a reviewer to discuss it, and the reviewer will introduce the evaluation method in detail.For example, issues such as area and year, structural issues, builder issues, and transaction prices of similar houses must also be considered.If the common people are still dissatisfied, they can appeal to the state assessment committee.Then let me ask you, can this be done in China?Who will evaluate in China?Definitely another government official.This simply increases opportunities for corruption.In order to make his evaluation lower, give him a little money, is it giving him a chance to be corrupt?And even if we introduced the American system, we found two people to evaluate it together.I believe that after one evaluation, the two began to collude.If we ordinary people are dissatisfied with the evaluation, how can we appeal?Should I go to the Letters and Visits Office again?The Letters and Visits Office complained too much, is it possible to arrest and beat you up?Of course it is possible. Have some of our local governments done less of such bad things?In such an environment, how do you evaluate real estate fairly and transparently?How to collect tax if it cannot be assessed?And after collecting taxes, how does the government use the money?In the end, it was another messy account, using public funds for eating and drinking, traveling abroad, and corruption.Let me ask the common people, are you willing to pay?After listening to what I have said, readers should understand that China does not have the conditions to levy real estate tax at all.Why?Because we simply do not have a fair and transparent evaluation mechanism.As long as we have officials to evaluate, there will be corruption immediately, and we don't even have a chance to appeal, unless you are not afraid of being beaten. Readers, do you know how much this tax will be once the property tax is levied at a rate of 0.8%?Basically, the total amount of property taxes for one year exceeds the city's annual budget.Let me take Hangzhou as an example. The annual budget is 40 billion, and the property tax is more than 40 billion. The total is 80 to 90 billion.The government, whose budget has always been opaque, suddenly doubled its budget. What do you think the government will do?It must be basically inefficient investment waste and inevitable corruption.And once the collection of real estate tax can increase the fiscal budget, the local government will eat as it pleases, and once the spending is smooth, it will increase the real estate tax next year. Dear readers, do you know why the World Bank said that the government will pay a heavy political price for the property tax?This is because property taxes are fundamentally different from other taxes.Although ordinary people were dissatisfied with the tax types in the past, they would not complain.Why?Should salary income be taxed?Should corporate profits be taxed?Should I pay a 3% deed tax when I sell my house?What about transaction tax?What about agricultural taxes?These taxes are all due to the fact that after we have income, we pay part of it to the government. At least I think it is understandable and bearable, right?So what is the nature of property tax readers?To put it bluntly, the government knocks on your door, cuts off your arm with a knife and takes it away. This is called property tax, and it is the only tax that does not generate income. In addition, property tax is still a tax that robs the poor and helps the rich.This statement sounds a bit strange. Isn’t the purpose of the government to levy this type of tax to suppress speculation?And speculators should be rich people?It seems so on the surface, but readers, please think about it, will the real real estate speculators hold it for a long time?The so-called real estate speculation is to buy quickly and sell quickly.In this case, can you hit speculators?I really don't know what those experts think.Even if you hold it for a long time, there are rich people and poor people. Of course, the rich can afford real estate taxes, so they can't be hit.Those who are really hit are those retirees who have sacrificed their lives for the Communist Party.Take Shanghai as an example. A retired couple saved 600,000 yuan with great difficulty. They bought a 100-square-meter house a few years ago, and now their savings have risen to 3 million yuan.If the property tax was paid at 0.8%, the retired couple would have to pay 24,000 yuan a year, and their annual retirement wages would be robbed. And do you know what will happen if you put the property tax directly on the crater?The rocks on this kind of universe may be really resistant to high temperatures, and maybe you really suppressed the crater.In the past, the government's regulation of housing prices was simply to put a big rock directly on the crater to block the volcanic magma.In fact, it’s okay that the large rocks covered in the past couldn’t hold down the volcanic lava. At most, the rocks melted, the volcanic lava continued to erupt, and the housing prices continued to rise.But have you ever thought that if you use a real estate tax to suppress the crater, and you suppress it in the end, if you suppress it for a long time, do you know the consequences?Let me tell you, the consequences are disastrous.Because the high-temperature volcanic lava will erupt again from the weakest link in the earth's crust.That is, first, the hyperinflation broke out immediately; second, the Chinese economy further declined.That's not bad, have you thought of a worst-case scenario?That's when the whole volcano exploded. And this explains why the stock index is still spinning around 2500 points until at least July 2010.Because every time you press the crater, the stock index will fall once, twice and twice, and three times and three times.Now the stock market depends on how you dispose of real estate. If you want to use real estate taxes to suppress it, the worst result may be that the entire volcano explodes. Once the volcano explodes, the stock market will inevitably explode, and then there will be Unpredictable political consequences.That's why the World Bank has warned that "property taxes will inevitably bear very heavy political costs." "Hey, what's going on here? Why did the stock price drop so sharply?" In the room about 40 tatami mats made of oak as the main material, a man's angry voice sounded. "It seems that overseas speculation caused the current fund to sell a large number of stocks." A slightly bloated little man replied with a panic expression and was at a loss. Outside the window is Hibiya's building street and the double bridge illuminated by the weak sunlight in winter. At the back of the room there is a huge special desk for the president, a computer that is not usually used, and a file box of solved and unsolved problems that have been used by successive presidents of Suminoe Bank. Gorgeous Family", "White Tower" and other works by the famous Osaka writer Toyoko Yamazaki that President Nishiwaki likes to read most. It was already past 4 o'clock in the afternoon.Nishiwaki, president of Yotsui Suminoe Bank, who was sitting on the black leather sofa in front of his desk, couldn't hide his anger.His eyebrows and lips are particularly sharply wrinkled together, forming a "one", like the face of a warrior in the Warring States Period.The planning director and planning minister standing in front of him lowered their heads without saying a word, and their eyes fell on the stock price list. Three days ago, Yotsui Suminoe Financial Group, as a holding company, announced that it will increase its capital by 300 billion yen for the issuance of preferred shares that grant common stock conversion rights.Immediately, the stock of Suminoe suffered a large-scale sell-off, and the stock price fell from 403,000 yen before the release of the information to 300,000 yen that day. "The speculative fund organization and its accomplices seem to want to cause the stock price to fall, so they set the conversion price at a very low price. The purpose is to hold a large number of stocks in the future." He said it again without moving. "Then what's the situation in our company?" The gray-haired Nishiwaki looked up and down the two people in front of him with sharp eyes.His snow-white shirt was topped with a bright blue tie over a navy blue suit.When he was young, this person was known as a "cold-faced rationalist". He had a knack for dealing with some loopholes and loopholes of large contractors and general trading companies.Two years ago, he jumped out of the combo box of the old chaebol, merged Suminoe Bank and Shii Bank, and became a very powerful banker. "It's down to 120 billion yen today." "What did Goldman Sachs say? Those guys, will they say goodbye when they make money?" Nishi Waki's eyes widened. The increase in stock issuance will have a thinning effect on the stock market, and under this influence, the prices of many stocks will fall. Nishiwaki has also expected and realized this; however, the current situation is something he never dreamed of of. This article is excerpted from [Japanese] Kuroki Ryo's "Baojin"
Let's first look at how volcanic magma is formed. In the second half of 2006, there was a property market bubble and a stock market bubble in China. I think this is because our economy is sick.To be more specific, the investment and business environment has deteriorated in an all-round way, so many entrepreneurs use the money that should be invested in enterprises to speculate in real estate and stocks, thus creating a bubble.The funds entering the property market can be interpreted as volcanic magma.Just as this fiery lava was poised to erupt, our government inserted two catheters. The first conduit: ordinary people cannot build houses by themselves, they must buy houses from developers.What does it mean?For example, our young men and women are basically in free love. Only those men and women who are not very good at dating and can’t eat well need to go to a marriage agency.If one day the government suddenly orders that free love is not allowed, and free love will not be issued a marriage certificate, and the government stipulates that they must go to a marriage agency.Do you know what the result is?Since there is no competition for free love, the intermediary fees of marriage agencies will immediately rise sharply through monopoly.How is this different from real estate?We can't buy land and build houses by ourselves now, but we have to buy from developers. This is like a dating agency, causing developers to monopolize, and the price will definitely go up.Why doesn't the government let us build our own houses?The government thinks that we won't build it, it will be messy and difficult to manage, right?How can the Germans?The German government has very clear regulations on self-built houses. The height of the house in which area, the color of the roof, and the shape of the windows are all clearly stipulated. You only need to construct according to the drawings. What’s the problem?We will talk about the relaxation of this regulation in Shenzhen in 2010 and the introduction of a competition mechanism in later chapters. The second conduit: the lack of affordable housing and low-rent housing.By the end of 2009, the Singapore government had built a total of 992,000 sets of affordable housing, ensuring housing for 85% of the common people.Moreover, Singapore is not based on cost accounting, but based on the income of ordinary people. It is guaranteed that ordinary people can buy a house with six years of income.There are only 15% of commercial housing in Singapore like ours, and the price of commercial housing for 15% of people is 40,000 to 50,000 yuan per square meter. In some western countries, housing is clearly defined as a public affair, and thus is guaranteed by legislation.For example, the United Kingdom promulgated the "Housing and Town Planning Act" in 1919, which clearly stipulates that housing issues are public affairs, and the government should provide support for public housing construction. Between 1946 and 1951, the British government was responsible for building 78% of the country's total housing.The Netherlands promulgated the "Housing Law" in 1901, which clearly stipulates that the government should provide subsidies for public housing construction and formulate building regulations. The government plays a decisive role in the housing market, and "providing adequate housing" is the responsibility of the government. In 1974, the Netherlands promulgated the "White Paper on Rent and Subsidies", emphasizing that "the goal of housing policy is to provide suitable housing for low-income groups."The United States issued the "Housing Act" in 1937, making it clear that the government is responsible for the construction of public housing for low-income families, and the occupants only need to pay lower rents.Since then, the "Housing and Urban Development Law" and the "Housing and Community Development Law" have been promulgated successively, and the public characteristics of housing have been guaranteed.So, what kind of changes has our country experienced in the understanding of housing?
So what kind of people in Hong Kong can enjoy government subsidies?Those with a monthly income of more than 60,000 Hong Kong dollars must purchase commercial housing from private developers; those with a monthly salary between 26,000 and 60,000, the government provides low-interest loans and supply housing at preferential prices; Those with a monthly income of less than 11,000 can enjoy low-rent housing. The rent is very cheap, with an average price of HK$1,320 per month.Hong Kong is a city with very strict regulations. As a result of strict implementation, 50% of the people in Hong Kong have government subsidies.In order to solve the housing problems of ordinary people, the government uses public resources to build public housing, including low-rent housing and affordable housing. Did we have this concept in the past?some. In 1998, the National Article 23 came out. At that time, it stipulated that 80% of affordable housing, 10% of low-rent housing, and the remaining 10% were real commercial housing.Therefore, from 1998 until 2003, housing prices were very stable.But since 2003, the government has introduced the 18 National Articles. Our government secretly changed the concept and changed 80% of the affordable housing into commercial housing with security features. Isn’t this commodity housing?Until now, almost 100% of them have become commercial housing. Our local governments are not interested in building affordable housing and low-rent housing. Their reason is that the central government takes 60% of the tax, but only does 30% of the work. , while the local government takes 40% of the tax, but has to do 70% of the work, so the finances are tight, and the budget must be maintained by selling land.Our government has pushed all the people's demand for housing to the commercial housing market.How can our disadvantaged groups, including college graduates and migrant workers, be able to afford commercial housing? The 2003 policy was doomed as soon as it was introduced. Now that we are talking about Singapore and Hong Kong, China, I would like to take this opportunity to tell us how local governments at all levels should learn from their new thinking on land finance. The first thought: Let’s look at Hong Kong. In 2007, the Hong Kong government’s land sales revenue was HK$13.3 billion, accounting for 0.8% of CDP.In 2007, the income from land sales in mainland China accounted for 4% of GDP, which was five times higher than that in Hong Kong.By 2009, Hong Kong's land sales revenue accounted for 1.53% of GDP, while our mainland's land sales revenue accounted for as high as 4.5% of GDP.So compared with Hong Kong, you will find that our mainland relies on land finance to a greater extent, and this is only the national average.If it is specific to local governments, such as Beijing, land sales revenue accounts for as high as 50% of fiscal revenue, which is not known how many times that of Hong Kong, because Hong Kong only accounts for about 1.53%a. The second thinking: Hong Kong and Singapore not only ensure the efficiency of land use but also increase fiscal revenue through high land prices and high housing prices, thereby maintaining low tax rates.Income tax is only 8.5% for those with an annual income of less than 300,000 Singapore dollars, and 17% for those with an annual income of more than 300,000 Singapore dollars. The third thinking: Singapore’s industrial land is mainly leased, while Hong Kong, China is mainly for sale. The industrial land in Hong Kong is as high as 80,000 Hong Kong dollars per square meter, the most expensive in the world.Therefore, Hong Kong's manufacturing industry has collapsed across the board, and it can only engage in the service industry and the financial industry.Singapore provides absolutely low prices through the government's absolute monopoly, and 80% of the industrial land is concentrated in the Jurong Group established by the government's Ministry of Industry and Trade.Rental prices range from S$200 to S$280 per square meter.So Singapore has a very prosperous manufacturing industry because of the excellent planning of the Singapore government. On August 12, 2003, the State Council issued the "Notice on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", which changed the economical housing from "housing supply main body" to "policy commodity housing with guarantee nature", and defined the real estate industry as " It is a "pillar industry" that promotes consumption, expands domestic demand, and stimulates investment growth.With the prosperity of the real estate market and the rapid rise of housing prices, the publicity of housing in our country has gradually weakened.In addition to its own problems, the rapid development of my country's real estate market is also boosted by external economic factors.So, what are the external economic factors of Lingtian real estate market?What is the essential problem of high housing prices?
As a result of our government's insertion of these two catheters, the volcanic magma erupted rapidly.For example, why was there a property market bubble in 2006?It is because the investment and business environment faced by our manufacturing-based private entrepreneurs has begun to deteriorate in an all-round way. This is the first disease of our economy. Therefore, a large amount of manufacturing funds have left the real economy and entered the real estate market, so volcanic lava began to produce.In addition, the government inserted two catheters, causing a volcanic eruption, and housing prices soared. Unfortunately, when the financial tsunami broke out in November 2008, our exports were hit hard, and the products manufactured by many factories could not be sold, resulting in overcapacity, so there was a second problem, called overcapacity.In order to cope with the financial tsunami, the government has stimulated domestic demand through 4 trillion yuan, ten industrial revitalization plans, sending automobiles, home appliances, and building materials to the countryside, and engaging in infrastructure construction through bank credit.In fact, these policies are using tomorrow's overcapacity to digest today's overcapacity.For example, 4 trillion yuan is invested in the construction of expressways in the Midwest. After the construction is completed, there will be basically no cars running on them, and expressways without cars can only be called expressways with overcapacity.However, steel and cement are needed during construction, so the excess capacity of these two can be temporarily resolved.I don’t know if the government has thought about it. Once the expressway is built, there will be a new overcapacity immediately because there will be no cars running on it. Since steel and cement are no longer needed, these two industries will be brought back to their original forms. become overcapacity.China's overcapacity has worsened on top of the excess capacity created by hurting exports.As a result, from August 26, 2009 to the middle of 2010, many industries experienced overcapacity, including steel, cement, flat glass, coal chemical industry, polysilicon, wind power, electrolytic aluminum, fertilizer, electric power, coal, and coke. , non-ferrous metals, papermaking, tanning, printing and dyeing, building materials, light industry, textiles, etc. In recent years, the investment and business environment faced by our entrepreneurs is worse than that in 2406. In addition, we have a second disease, which is serious overcapacity, which makes a large amount of funds of entrepreneurs leave the real economy and enter the property market. As a result, the magma increased.In addition, inflation has risen again recently. Even if it is to escape inflation, do ordinary people dare to invest their funds in the real economy?dare not.Why not?Because the two diseases have not been resolved.So in order to escape inflation, where should these funds flow?property market.This adds even more to the magma.Since the two pipes were not cut off, they could not fall in love freely, and because affordable housing and low-rent housing were not built, more and more lava erupted through the two pipes that were not closed. In recent years, the State Council and relevant ministries and commissions have successively issued a series of policies to regulate real estate and stabilize housing prices, and speculative housing purchases have been initially suppressed.However, housing prices in some big cities have risen too fast, the supply of small and medium-sized ordinary housing is insufficient, the regulatory mechanism is not perfect, and urban residents' satisfaction with housing issues is still low. On August 7, 2007, the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Solving the Housing Difficulties of Low-income Families in Urban Areas", which regards solving the housing difficulties of low-income families as the main task of safeguarding the interests of the masses and an important part of the reform of the housing system.So, why does the government prioritize the housing difficulties of low-income families?If we can't do a good job of counseling in advance, what will be the consequences of simply suppressing real estate prices?
Why did property price regulation fail in the past?That's because the government always wants to put a big rock directly on the crater to block the magma.And this big rock cannot withstand the eruption of volcanic lava.Because the temperature of volcanic lava is too high, it will melt the big rocks.This is why regulation and control in the past had only a short-term effect, and they all failed in the end. So how can our government really solve the problem?These two pipelines must be sealed and the magma diluted at the same time.The correct approach for the government should be, first, allow free love; second, build affordable housing and low-rent housing on a large scale.Only in this way can these two pipelines be sealed.At the same time, how to dissolve the magma?That is to help entrepreneurs improve their investment and operating environment and reduce overcapacity. Entrepreneur funds and risk-avoiding funds are willing to invest in the real economy, and the melt is naturally diluted.But instead of following the right path to solve the volcano problem, we plan to introduce a property tax instead.Do you know what would happen if the introduction of the estate tax was made?Real estate tax is equivalent to finding an extraterrestrial rock from Mars and pressing it directly on the crater.Does it mean that the rocks above this kind of universe are particularly resistant to high temperatures?Is it really possible to hold down the crater? Since my country launched the reform of the housing system in the 1980s, especially since the end of housing distribution in kind in 1988, residents' housing consumption has been effectively launched.With the continuous acceleration of urban housing construction, the area of residential housing continues to expand, the quality of living continues to improve, and housing conditions have been significantly improved. Problems such as the fact that the housing security system has not really been established and perfected have also been exposed.With the commercialization of housing, the housing-based real estate industry has become the main pillar industry of the national economy.If it is necessary to strengthen the government's public responsibility to improve the real estate system, then as a pillar industry, how should it avoid the possible risks of suppressing housing prices?
First of all, we have to figure out what property tax actually refers to.At first it was called property tax, then it was called property tax, and now some people say property tax, property tax, special consumption tax and so on.The land in our country has been nationalized since the amendment of the Constitution in 1982.In fact, in the 1954 Constitution, it was still recognized that farmers owned land and related means of production, but it was changed in the 1982 Constitution.Because the collection of property tax requires a legislative procedure of the National People’s Congress, the property tax was proposed. The provisional regulations on property tax were passed in 1986, and taxation is carried out on commercial housing, but non-commercial and self-occupied housing is not allowed. taxed.And because it is difficult to collect this type of tax, some local tax bureaus have combined with some neighborhood committees to conduct comprehensive tax collection by rewarding reporting. In the past few years, due to the formation of volcanic magma, the government has inserted two more conduits, causing housing prices to soar, thus offending all those who cannot afford a house.As a result of the government's further property tax, it will offend all those who can afford a house.As a result, the common people all over the country were offended, so what about the foundation of the government's governance?The World Bank's report "Reform of Urban Property Tax, Guiding Principles and Recommendations" gave a shocking conclusion - "property tax will inevitably bear a very heavy political price", I think this sentence is the most appropriate for our government .I hope our government will not be misled by those shameless, hateful pet economists.Where are these scholars so hateful?They are a group of dogs raised by the powerful and the rich. When the government wants to make a certain policy, they will neither consider the problem from the standpoint of the common people nor from the scientific point of view, but will only rush to do it. Flatter, express your opinion.For example, these pet scholars pointed out that the collection of real estate tax has obviously increased the cost of housing ownership, and hit speculators holding vacant housing even more, reducing their income from real estate speculation, so that funds can be directed to Reasonable economic fields, etc.These comments are basically bullshit.For example, Guosen Securities once pointed out so nonsense that under the circumstances that the introduction of property tax is immature, gradually promoting property tax reform will weaken the property of real estate as an investment product, help stabilize housing prices, and change people's psychological expectations. I would like to ask these scholars, what is the essence of property tax?Is it used to suppress housing prices?You got even the basic idea wrong.In the United States, land is privately owned, so it is reasonable for land owners to pay property taxes.If an American finds oil on his own land, it belongs to him personally, because the land is privately owned.And our land belongs to the government, and we have no basis for privatization to pay property taxes.The real estate developer has already paid the transfer fee, and the transfer fee is similar to the rent, which means that we have already paid the rent.How can there be any reason to pay property taxes for the government that owns the land after paying the rent?How can the government collect whatever it wants?Whether the government calls it property tax, real estate tax, or real estate tax, it is illegal anyway.What would happen if we found oil under the land we built our houses on?Definitely forced to demolish and drive us all away. Moreover, the purpose of the property tax in the United States is not to suppress housing prices, but to increase the value of housing prices, hide wealth among the people, and allow ordinary people to obtain higher value.For example, according to the practice of the United States, the United States collects an average property tax of 1.38%, 28% of this property tax goes to the township government, 22% goes to the county government, and only 4% goes to the state government, a total of 54%.But you have to know that there are actually very few government officials in the township and county governments in the United States.A government official of a county government may only) have three people, one is in charge of justice, one is for marriage certificates, certificate inspection, and an administrative officer.The number of people in their county government is even smaller than that of one of our street committees. Why?Because the U.S. government is very efficient, the American people will not spend money to support so many government officials, unlike us, there are officials everywhere! After local governments in the United States receive property taxes, they will use 54% of them to hire police officers to improve law and order, build construction and improve the environment, and the remaining 46% of property taxes will be used to improve education.The annual budget for public primary and secondary education in the United States is 300 billion US dollars, all of which come from the 46% property tax. 99% of Americans go to public schools, from kindergarten to high school graduation, a total of 13 years, all free of charge, some wealthy schools also have free lunch, this is what is really taken from the people and used by the people. All expenditures of the U.S. government have very clear records, and ordinary people can check them online at any time, unlike our government's budget, which is simply a mess.The local public security, environment, and schools have all improved, and housing prices have naturally risen.As for the value-added part, the U.S. government collects 1.38% of the real estate tax, and the remaining 98.62% goes to the real estate owner.That's why Americans are more than happy to pay property taxes, because properties increase in value.Then I would like to ask my friends, if our government takes the property tax, it can spend every penny on our environment, on the education of our children, on our personal safety protection, all on Are you willing to pay for the flowers and trees in our neighborhood and the environmental sanitation in our neighborhood?Of course you would. The essence of American property tax is worth exploring because we cannot personally improve our living environment, community security, and school education. Therefore, we must use the government to collect property taxes from all of us to help us improve the environment on a large scale. , Improve law and order, improve schools, so that our real estate can increase in value.For ordinary people in the United States, they can enjoy so many benefits through the government with only 1.38% of their money each year, and so many benefits are beyond my personal reach, and must be obtained through the public power of the government. Let people in all communities pay real estate taxes at the same time, and only then can we achieve the goals of improving the environment, security, and education.Therefore, the US property tax is to increase the value of real estate, thereby hiding wealth among the people.However, our scholars propose to suppress housing prices through property taxes, and they simply don't understand the basic concepts.I used to say that these scholars would be very angry, but now I won't either, so why bother with them?There are so many poor people who live by talking nonsense, forget it, don't bother with them, anyway, no one listens to them, right? Do you know how property taxes are levied in the United States?The most honest and dedicated people are elected by the residents as real estate appraisers.Generally, two people who don't know each other come to the house to make an assessment together, measure the area of the house, register the number of houses, including how many bathrooms there are, and so on.Then after registration, two people will make evaluations separately, and then all will be made public online.Residents can find all the information.If you think it is too high, you can find a reviewer to discuss it, and the reviewer will introduce the evaluation method in detail.For example, issues such as area and year, structural issues, builder issues, and transaction prices of similar houses must also be considered.If the common people are still dissatisfied, they can appeal to the state assessment committee.Then let me ask you, can this be done in China?Who will evaluate in China?Definitely another government official.This simply increases opportunities for corruption.In order to make his evaluation lower, give him a little money, is it giving him a chance to be corrupt?And even if we introduced the American system, we found two people to evaluate it together.I believe that after one evaluation, the two began to collude.If we ordinary people are dissatisfied with the evaluation, how can we appeal?Should I go to the Letters and Visits Office again?The Letters and Visits Office complained too much, is it possible to arrest and beat you up?Of course it is possible. Have some of our local governments done less of such bad things?In such an environment, how do you evaluate real estate fairly and transparently?How to collect tax if it cannot be assessed?And after collecting taxes, how does the government use the money?In the end, it was another messy account, using public funds for eating and drinking, traveling abroad, and corruption.Let me ask the common people, are you willing to pay?After listening to what I have said, readers should understand that China does not have the conditions to levy real estate tax at all.Why?Because we simply do not have a fair and transparent evaluation mechanism.As long as we have officials to evaluate, there will be corruption immediately, and we don't even have a chance to appeal, unless you are not afraid of being beaten. Readers, do you know how much this tax will be once the property tax is levied at a rate of 0.8%?Basically, the total amount of property taxes for one year exceeds the city's annual budget.Let me take Hangzhou as an example. The annual budget is 40 billion, and the property tax is more than 40 billion. The total is 80 to 90 billion.The government, whose budget has always been opaque, suddenly doubled its budget. What do you think the government will do?It must be basically inefficient investment waste and inevitable corruption.And once the collection of real estate tax can increase the fiscal budget, the local government will eat as it pleases, and once the spending is smooth, it will increase the real estate tax next year. Dear readers, do you know why the World Bank said that the government will pay a heavy political price for the property tax?This is because property taxes are fundamentally different from other taxes.Although ordinary people were dissatisfied with the tax types in the past, they would not complain.Why?Should salary income be taxed?Should corporate profits be taxed?Should I pay a 3% deed tax when I sell my house?What about transaction tax?What about agricultural taxes?These taxes are all due to the fact that after we have income, we pay part of it to the government. At least I think it is understandable and bearable, right?So what is the nature of property tax readers?To put it bluntly, the government knocks on your door, cuts off your arm with a knife and takes it away. This is called property tax, and it is the only tax that does not generate income. In addition, property tax is still a tax that robs the poor and helps the rich.This statement sounds a bit strange. Isn’t the purpose of the government to levy this type of tax to suppress speculation?And speculators should be rich people?It seems so on the surface, but readers, please think about it, will the real real estate speculators hold it for a long time?The so-called real estate speculation is to buy quickly and sell quickly.In this case, can you hit speculators?I really don't know what those experts think.Even if you hold it for a long time, there are rich people and poor people. Of course, the rich can afford real estate taxes, so they can't be hit.Those who are really hit are those retirees who have sacrificed their lives for the Communist Party.Take Shanghai as an example. A retired couple saved 600,000 yuan with great difficulty. They bought a 100-square-meter house a few years ago, and now their savings have risen to 3 million yuan.If the property tax was paid at 0.8%, the retired couple would have to pay 24,000 yuan a year, and their annual retirement wages would be robbed. And do you know what will happen if you put the property tax directly on the crater?The rocks on this kind of universe may be really resistant to high temperatures, and maybe you really suppressed the crater.In the past, the government's regulation of housing prices was simply to put a big rock directly on the crater to block the volcanic magma.In fact, it’s okay that the large rocks covered in the past couldn’t hold down the volcanic lava. At most, the rocks melted, the volcanic lava continued to erupt, and the housing prices continued to rise.But have you ever thought that if you use a real estate tax to suppress the crater, and you suppress it in the end, if you suppress it for a long time, do you know the consequences?Let me tell you, the consequences are disastrous.Because the high-temperature volcanic lava will erupt again from the weakest link in the earth's crust.That is, first, the hyperinflation broke out immediately; second, the Chinese economy further declined.That's not bad, have you thought of a worst-case scenario?That's when the whole volcano exploded. And this explains why the stock index is still spinning around 2500 points until at least July 2010.Because every time you press the crater, the stock index will fall once, twice and twice, and three times and three times.Now the stock market depends on how you dispose of real estate. If you want to use real estate taxes to suppress it, the worst result may be that the entire volcano explodes. Once the volcano explodes, the stock market will inevitably explode, and then there will be Unpredictable political consequences.That's why the World Bank has warned that "property taxes will inevitably bear very heavy political costs." "Hey, what's going on here? Why did the stock price drop so sharply?" In the room about 40 tatami mats made of oak as the main material, a man's angry voice sounded. "It seems that overseas speculation caused the current fund to sell a large number of stocks." A slightly bloated little man replied with a panic expression and was at a loss. Outside the window is Hibiya's building street and the double bridge illuminated by the weak sunlight in winter. At the back of the room there is a huge special desk for the president, a computer that is not usually used, and a file box of solved and unsolved problems that have been used by successive presidents of Suminoe Bank. Gorgeous Family", "White Tower" and other works by the famous Osaka writer Toyoko Yamazaki that President Nishiwaki likes to read most. It was already past 4 o'clock in the afternoon.Nishiwaki, president of Yotsui Suminoe Bank, who was sitting on the black leather sofa in front of his desk, couldn't hide his anger.His eyebrows and lips are particularly sharply wrinkled together, forming a "one", like the face of a warrior in the Warring States Period.The planning director and planning minister standing in front of him lowered their heads without saying a word, and their eyes fell on the stock price list. Three days ago, Yotsui Suminoe Financial Group, as a holding company, announced that it will increase its capital by 300 billion yen for the issuance of preferred shares that grant common stock conversion rights.Immediately, the stock of Suminoe suffered a large-scale sell-off, and the stock price fell from 403,000 yen before the release of the information to 300,000 yen that day. "The speculative fund organization and its accomplices seem to want to cause the stock price to fall, so they set the conversion price at a very low price. The purpose is to hold a large number of stocks in the future." He said it again without moving. "Then what's the situation in our company?" The gray-haired Nishiwaki looked up and down the two people in front of him with sharp eyes.His snow-white shirt was topped with a bright blue tie over a navy blue suit.When he was young, this person was known as a "cold-faced rationalist". He had a knack for dealing with some loopholes and loopholes of large contractors and general trading companies.Two years ago, he jumped out of the combo box of the old chaebol, merged Suminoe Bank and Shii Bank, and became a very powerful banker. "It's down to 120 billion yen today." "What did Goldman Sachs say? Those guys, will they say goodbye when they make money?" Nishi Waki's eyes widened. The increase in stock issuance will have a thinning effect on the stock market, and under this influence, the prices of many stocks will fall. Nishiwaki has also expected and realized this; however, the current situation is something he never dreamed of of. This article is excerpted from [Japanese] Kuroki Ryo's "Baojin"