Chapter 31 1. Three Dilemmas

China is located in the east of Asia, and naturally cares about the development of East Asia and Southeast Asian countries and regions.Most East Asian countries and regions have been influenced by Chinese civilization in history. Whether it is the "Chinese Character Cultural Circle", "Confucianism Civilization Circle", or "Chopsticks Cultural Circle", it all shows the continuous historical ties between East Asian countries and regions.Many East Asian countries and regions have successively adopted the Western pluralistic democratic system, but the Western democratic model has not been smooth along the way, and the reasons for this are worth pondering.

The Philippines is a country I am relatively familiar with, but the tragedy that happened in November 2009 still shocked me. On November 23, a political vendetta occurred in Maguindanao Province in the southern Philippines: 51 people were kidnapped, and 36 officials and journalists were killed.The kidnappers used extremely cruel methods. The kidnapped were covered with bullet holes, and some were beheaded or raped.According to the investigation, this is another vendetta caused by the election.Since 1986, nearly a thousand political murders have actually occurred in the Philippines.When I visited the Philippines in 2005, I asked many locals: Why are there so many murders in Philippine politics?A friend who has studied Philippine politics told me: "Political positions are the source of income for politicians, so many politicians do not hesitate to take risks, hire killers, murder politicians and journalists who dare to expose the truth." In August 2010, it broke out again. The tragic killing of Hong Kong tourists and the serious mishandling of the government have exposed the true situation of Philippine politics and society once again.

The Philippines has been regarded as the "democratic showcase" of the United States in Asia for a long time. Its political system is almost copied from that of the United States, with separation of powers, separation of church and state, and constitutional democracy. However, Philippine politics has always been controlled by a few prominent families for a century. Behind the massacre in November 2009 was also a fight between political families.The Philippines was once an economic powerhouse in East Asia second only to Japan, but American-style democracy did not bring the prosperity and affluence that the people expected, but turmoil and poverty, and the country's fortunes quickly changed from prosperity to decline.

The problem of poor-quality democracy faced by the Philippines has become a big problem for democracies in East Asia and even the entire non-Western world after adopting the Western model.Generally speaking, I roughly divide the East Asian countries and regions that adopted the Western model into two categories. One category adopts the Western political system when the economy is relatively backward, such as Thailand, the Philippines, Mongolia, etc.; After the economic take-off, those who adopted Western political systems, such as South Korea and Taiwan, China, etc., but judging from the situation in the past two decades, the quality of these democracies is generally not good, and almost all of them encountered non-western societies adopting Western political systems. Some typical problems that emerged after the system, especially the three major problems of social division, corruption, and economic downturn.

Let's look at social division first.After the adoption of Western democracies, the social contradictions and divisions in these societies originally formed due to various reasons have not been reduced, but have been enlarged and strengthened, leading to serious social divisions and even confrontations.The bloody struggle in Thailand over the past four years surrounding the resignation of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra can well illustrate this problem: Behind the confrontation between the "Yellow Shirt Army" and the "Red Shirt Army" in Thailand is the grim reality of the gap between the rich and the poor in Thailand's urban and rural areas. One of the most disparate countries, with the richest 20% owning more than 60% of national income and the poorest 20% owning only 5% of national income.Thaksin's supporters are mainly farmers and the urban poor, while his opponents are mainly from the urban middle class and social elite. In September 2006, the Thai army launched a coup and overthrew the democratically elected Thaksin government. In a sense, this coup conformed to the mainstream of public opinion among the middle class in the city, but met with fierce opposition from farmers.The rural population of Thailand accounts for about 70% of the total population, so the so-called situation of "farmers electing the prime minister, and urbanites driving him out" keeps appearing.

If the political situation in Thailand can be summarized as "urban-rural division", then the situation in Taiwan can be summarized as "North-South division". .After Chen Shui-bian came to power in 2000, he did not bring what he called "government for the whole people, clean streams and common governance".On the contrary, for the sake of votes, Chen Shui-bian deliberately provoked ethnic conflicts (the so-called "provinces", "out-of-provinces", "Taiwanese", "Chinese", etc.), "South" and "North" have become a political cutting tool , that is, the so-called "love Taiwan" south against the "selling Taiwan" north.The difference between the north and the south in Taiwan certainly has historically formed factors of "emphasizing the north and despising the south". The government's ability to integrate society has declined sharply.Although Ma Ying-jeou, who advocates ethnic harmony, has come to power, how to repair the deep rifts in Taiwanese society is by no means easy.

A similar north-south division also appeared in China's close neighbor Kyrgyzstan. In 2005, a "color revolution" pushed Aliyev, who represented the southern power, to the presidency. However, due to ineffective governance, people's livelihood deteriorated and corruption intensified. In April 2010, Aliyev was overthrown by opposition forces representing the northern forces, and a series of large-scale ethnic conflicts followed, which led China to send special planes to evacuate its own nationals.The phenomenon of social division also appeared in South Korea, which is characterized by politicians in order to fight for power and profit, manipulate the existing regional contradictions to compete for votes, so that the already existing people such as Lingnan people (Gyeongsang area, including Daegu City, Busan City and Gyeongsang City) People from North and South Provinces) and Hunanese (also known as the Jeolla region, including people from Gwangju City, Jeollabuk Province, and Jeollanam Province) are more acute, and ruling and opposition parties compete for votes. And "Taoji card".

It is worth noting that social division is often associated with political unrest.These countries and regions have all experienced large-scale shocks.The turmoil in Thailand has lasted for four years, from the blockade of the airport, to the attack on the Prime Minister’s Office, to the cancellation of the ASEAN 10+3 Summit, to the assassination of the leader of the opposition party, to the suppression by force. Martial law was enforced; the Philippines has experienced countless military coups; Taiwan has seen "two bullets" protests and "red shirts" with millions of people taking to the streets; political shock waves of various sizes in South Korea have almost It has never stopped; Kyrgyzstan has experienced two "revolutions" in just five years, and this is only a small country with a population of more than 5 million.

Let's look at corruption again.Western political theory generally assumes that the adoption of Western democratic systems will reduce corruption. However, judging from the actual situation of implementing Western political systems in these East Asian countries and regions, corruption often continues unabated.This can be seen from a comparison of the 2004 and 2008 corruption indices published by Transparency International: (Source: Transparency International website) The situation in Indonesia seems to have improved slightly, but in 2009 the Asia Political and Economic Risk Consulting Company ranked Indonesia as the most corrupt country in Asia.After the democratization of Taiwan, gangsters and money intervened in politics on a large scale, and the democratic system in Taiwan was rapidly marketized.In particular, the greed of the former leader Chen Shui-bian who spent eight years desperately accumulating money is outrageous. To use Taiwanese media language to describe it: Chen Shui-bian "takes everyone" and Chen Shui-bian's team "takes everyone".It was thought that democracy could curb corruption, but large-scale election bribery has occurred in Taiwan. Although the Taiwan authorities have increasingly cracked down on election bribery, it is difficult to work in practice.The traditional clan structure and human relations in Taiwanese society have made Lichang and Zhujiao fertile ground for election bribery.The chaebol power in South Korea has also expanded since its democratization. The government and enterprises have colluded and used each other. The chaebol providing a large amount of political funds to political parties is a problem that South Korea repeatedly prohibits; A new round of corruption begins.

Then there is the economic downturn.Thailand’s overall economy has declined since the 2006 military coup caused turmoil; the Philippines has practiced a democratic system for nearly a century, but one-third of the people are still living in extreme poverty today, and one-tenth of the population is working abroad. The food crisis and financial crisis in the Philippines have made the Philippine economy worse; the main reason behind the Mongolian riots is also the continuous economic recession. Mongolia's economic structure is simple, and there has been little development in the past two decades. Far behind Inner Mongolia, China.Since South Korea’s democratization in the mid-1980s, although it has shown great vitality in economic development, it has unfortunately become the hardest hit area of ​​the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the financial tsunami in 2008 due to serious mistakes in macro-regulation and other reasons.During the eight years of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan, the strength of Taiwan's economy has declined severely, with high unemployment and a sharp drop in foreign investment.They should have fought for the economy, people's livelihood, and competitiveness, but the authorities took the lead in ideology, fighting for "constitutional revision," "rectification of names," and "referendum."Chen Shui-bian changed six "premiers" in eight years. Various policies fluctuated, public investment grew negatively for eight consecutive years, and government debt rose sharply, leaving Ma Ying-jeou in a mess.If we say that South Korea has actively promoted economic cooperation with China, which brought its economy out of the slump relatively quickly, but during the eight-year ruling period of the DPP, it closed itself to the outside world and refused to have economic exchanges with the mainland, which resulted in an overall decline in Taiwan's economy.Ma Ying-jeou is currently trying to vigorously develop economic and trade relations with the mainland to reverse the decline in Taiwan's economy.

Due to the above problems, people in these countries and regions are significantly less satisfied with their own regimes.According to a 2008 report by the Asian Barometer Project, majorities in South Korea, Mongolia, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines believe that years of democratic transition have failed to improve their lives.Lin Mingda, the leader of Thailand's PAD who actively promoted Thailand's democratization in the past, also publicly stated: Thailand's politics is very corrupt, ticket buying is common, and rural voters are ignorant, so elections are meaningless.He even advocated abolishing the election of members of parliament and replacing them with appointments.Lin Mingda himself was the main promoter of Thailand's democracy movement in 1998. Ten years later, he lamented about Thailand's democracy. It is embarrassing.Thailand has implemented a constitutional monarchy since 1932, and has experienced 24 military coups so far. What is interesting is that the unelected caretaker governments in Thailand after previous coups often have better political performance, such as the Anan government in the early 1990s.There are also many uncertainties in the Indonesian democratic system. It is basically a kind of network politics. The influence of the military and political families is huge, while citizens’ participation and interest expression are still subject to many restrictions. Coupled with serious government corruption, the future Not optimistic.According to my own observations during my visit to Indonesia, if I am lucky, Indonesia may gradually evolve into a low-quality democratic country like India; if unfortunately, Indonesia may fall into long-term party struggles or even fall apart. Disappointment with Western democracies is not limited to the countries and regions mentioned above, but is true throughout Asia.Bangladesh, after two years of military regime, recently elected a new government, but faced another mutiny; Pakistan and Timor-Leste have been seen by many as close to "failed states"; India's Mumbai terrorist attacks and the Commonwealth Games The chaos in India has also exposed too many problems in its own system, making many Indians reflect on the problems of India's democratic system, especially problems such as poverty eradication, serious corruption, and low government efficiency.Japan belongs to another type, because as early as the end of the 19th century, through top-down innovations, it completed its own industrial revolution, popularized education, built a so-called modern country, and quickly joined the activities of Western countries to carve up colonies, and then left. On the road of fascist militarism.After the surrender of the Second World War, the Western democratic system was established, but it also faced many problems. The more prominent problems were the change of prime minister like a lantern, serious family politics and nepotism, and the difficulty of promoting necessary reforms. Even the US "Newsweek" In March 2009, a long article was also published questioning: "Why are Japanese politicians so bad?" He believed that Japan has not elected qualified and capable leaders for so many years.Many people refer to the past two decades in Japan as the "lost two decades", which is directly related to the flaws in Japan's political system.