Chapter 30 4. The "Two Radicals" in Eastern Europe

The changes in Eastern Europe can be summed up in terms of "two radicals": political radical transformation, from the original communist system to a Western-style multi-party system; Turn to privatization and marketization.At its core, too, is a dream: With radical political and economic change, these countries can solve all their problems once and for all.As a result, political radicalization has brought about a sudden explosion of political participation and continued chaos. It is not easy for a new system to be established and function well. "Shock therapy" has led to hyperinflation, sometimes as high as 2,000%, people's living standards have dropped sharply, and the number of unemployed has increased sharply.Hungary was less affected by the disaster, because Hungary tried many reforms during the Kadar period, and ordinary people are no strangers to the market.But for most Eastern European countries, "shock therapy" is tantamount to a catastrophe, leading to a chaotic situation with neither government intervention nor market system, providing the possibility for illegal plunder.This gave a group of former officials the opportunity to wantonly embezzle state assets, and also made corruption (especially in Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, etc.) unstoppable.I can't say that most Eastern Europeans want to go back to that era. There were many problems in that era, not to mention that there are always a small number of people in the world who are willing to go back 20 years in their country's history.But I can say that if the people of Eastern Europe have the opportunity to choose reform again, most people will never choose this "two radical" reform method, but will choose a more moderate and rational reform, because ordinary people in Eastern Europe are willing to accept radical reform. The price paid was simply too high.

After the "two radical" reforms, Hungary and even the entire Eastern European economy have become highly dependent on foreign capital, with high debts and large trade deficits. Financial liberalization has led to many banks being controlled by Western banks. The financial tsunami that began in 2008 caused another catastrophe to most Eastern European countries.The exchange rate of the Hungarian currency against the euro has fallen by 20% within six months. Hungarians mostly use foreign currency mortgages to buy houses: they earn Hungarian forints and pay back euros.Latvia, Ukraine, and Serbia are close to bankruptcy, and their bond ratings have been rated as "junk".

The poor economic situation in Eastern Europe is also reflected in the general weakening of their economic competitiveness.According to the 2007 World Competitiveness Report of the Lausanne School of Management in Switzerland, the international competitiveness of the eight countries that joined the European Union lags behind China.China ranked 15th in the report, Estonia 22nd, Lithuania 31st, Slovakia 34th, Hungary 35th, Bulgaria 41st, Romania 44th and Poland 52nd.Judging from this report, China, a country with 1.3 billion people, scores significantly higher than these countries in terms of political stability, policy consistency, and social cohesion.Politically, Eastern Europe is also troubled.Twenty years have passed, and despite the large amount of funding and expert guidance from the European Union, these countries have the airs of constitutionalism and a form of democracy, but no real democrats have emerged.A large number of self-serving politicians are vying for power there, leading to widespread disappointment with the government.

The strange thing is that some scholars in our country still believe that we should follow the path of Eastern Europe.For example, not long ago, a professor in China said: "The transformation to a market economy includes economic reform and political reform. The radical transformation of Soviet and Eastern countries is to carry out the two reforms together. Our gradual transformation is carried out first. Economic reform followed by political reform. However, the relative lag of the second reform makes it difficult to complete the first reform. At present, to realize the transformation of the growth mode, political reform must be strengthened, and economic reform must be completed on this basis.” (see "China News Weekly", February 8, 2010, Issue No. 456, p. 86) Fortunately, these people have no right to guide China's reforms, otherwise China would have become a copy of Hungary and Yugoslavia, and the country would probably be torn apart. China's assets have long been swept away by Western capital, so there is no such thing as today's rise.Of course China will continue to carry out economic and political reforms, but we must learn the lessons of Eastern Europe, the lessons of the Western financial crisis and sovereign debt, and go beyond the Western model.Strictly speaking, our goal is not "transformation", but "innovation", and even if we use the word "transformation", we mean "institutional innovation", not emulation of Eastern Europe.

There is also something to be said here about the quality of democracy in Eastern Europe. In early 2008, Eurobarometer, an authoritative European organization, found that people in most Eastern European countries had very low trust in their governments: 16% in Bulgaria, 17% in Poland, 19% in Latvia, 21% in Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic. %.The EIU under the British "Economist" magazine published a 2006 World Democracy Quality Evaluation Index, which believed that the quality of democracy in Eastern European countries was generally inferior to that of Taiwan, where Chen Shui-bian was in charge.This evaluation ranks the democracy of the Taiwan region at 32nd place, and among the above-mentioned eight Eastern European countries, only the Czech Republic ranks 18th above Taiwan region, and the others are all behind Taiwan region: Estonia is 33rd and Hungary is 38th. , Slovakia 41st, Latvia 43rd, Poland 46th, Bulgaria 49th, Romania 50th.If this assessment is fair, one can imagine the quality of democracy in these Eastern European countries in transition.

Even the relatively well-performing Czech Republic has serious problems with the quality of its democracy.Former Czech Foreign Minister Jii Dienstbier wrote an article in the American International Herald Tribune on October 9, 2006, frankly admitting: “Czech citizens’ dissatisfaction is spreading everywhere, and the number of voters is sharply increasing. The public’s trust in the government, parliament and the entire political process is decreasing.” He said that during the “Velvet Revolution” in 1989, “we expected too much and it was not realistic.”Czech politicians have been mired in graft scandals one after another.Jii Pehe, adviser to former Czech President Havel (Vaclav Havel), made a pertinent comment: "The Czech Republic today is still the founder of the independent Czech state after the First World War and the first President Massa. Rick (Tomas Masaryk) said: 'The country is already democratic, but unfortunately, there are no democrats.'”

Poland's 2005 general election elected Lech Kaczynski as president, and soon his twin brother became prime minister.The policies pursued by the brothers are a headache for Europe: they first raised the banner of nationalism and challenged Germany, the main member of the European Union, to settle the unfinished account of World War II.Later, he proposed to ban homosexuality in Poland, restore the death penalty, and strengthen the influence of the Catholic Church, which made the old members of the European Union feel very embarrassed. Many countries in the European Union have now made the protection of homosexual rights a top priority.Prime Minister Kaczynski stepped down, and the president's younger brother was unhappy, thinking that his brother had been framed by the media, and often had trouble with the new prime minister.

On April 10, 2010, when President Kaczynski went to Katyn, Russia to mourn more than 20,000 Polish elites killed by the Soviet Union during World War II, his plane unfortunately crashed and his soul was broken in Russia.There are articles on China's domestic Internet praising Poland's poor government and bad planes.The authors of these articles are too ignorant of Eastern Europe.In my opinion, this tragedy just reflects the chaos of Polish state governance from another aspect.Poland, like other Eastern European countries, has also become an electoral society.Most politicians are busy fighting for power and have little energy to govern the country. Poland has not even divided the duties of the president and prime minister clearly.The Tu-154 aircraft that Kaczynski was on was phased out by China as early as 2002. This is a respect for life and human rights.However, the Polish president’s special plane is still using such a crude model. Even the commander of the Polish Air Force and Polish elites from all walks of life are sitting on this plane. This can only show that the governance of the country is very unprofessional.But compared with other Eastern European countries, Poland is better off, because it can still control its own banks, otherwise it will be very difficult for Poland to survive the financial catastrophe.The British "Economist" commented on President Kaczynski's death in an article in April 2010: He is a person who does not understand diplomacy. He only knows that the United States is good, Russia and Germany are not good, but Poland needs more Shrewd and capable leader.Before his death, his approval rating in Poland was less than 25%.

Although Romania and Bulgaria have also joined the EU, they are still far from the EU standards.The development of Romania is not smooth. On the way from Bucharest airport to the city center, you can still see many dilapidated houses and cars. Corruption is also very serious. Bribes are generally required to go to the hospital for hospitalization, and various political scandals continue.A Romanian academic told me a new political joke, the teacher asked the students: "If you see a person put his hand in someone else's pocket, who is this person?" The students all replied: "The Minister of Finance of Romania. "

Bulgaria's problems are even worse.A director of an NGO in Sofia told me: “Our biggest political problem is official corruption, and our biggest social problem is brain drain. Now it’s hard to find qualified primary and secondary school teachers. Once you learn a foreign language, you leave. Only fools are still here. I think our country is going to end." Her words may be exaggerating a little, and there is a tragic complex that Slavs often have.Before Bulgaria joined the European Union, it carried out many face-saving reforms. After joining, the reformists were kicked out.But Bulgaria's police and judiciary are all in collusion with the underworld, making it the most corrupt country among the new EU members.I went to Sofia to attend a conference in 2006, and learned that Bulgaria’s votes for all levels can be bought on the street. The most expensive ballot for the presidential election is 100 levs (about 60 US dollars) a piece.Of all Eastern European countries, Latvia has the lowest support for the EU.This was the situation before the financial crisis.A local friend said to me a very interesting saying: "Our saying here is that as soon as September comes, problems will come." September is the time when parliamentarians end their vacation and the parliament begins to work.In Eastern European countries like Latvia, which adopted the Western election system, the common people were fresh for the first three days, and then generally bored. "Politicians are characterized by infighting. It's not about making big things smaller, but making small things bigger. The bigger the better, they can fish in troubled waters, and ultimately sacrifice the overall interests of the public," she told me.

Der Spiegel International News Online commented on the political situation in Eastern Europe as follows: "Although the communist regime has fallen in Eastern Europe for nearly two decades, Eastern European countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania are still struggling to establish a stable Democracy struggles. Politics in these countries lacks a center, authoritarianism ranges from extreme right-wing to post-communist, corruption, extremism run rampant, chaos.” (Spiegel Online International, May 29, 2007) Croatian writer De Slavenka Drakulic was a dissident against Tito.After the breakup of Yugoslavia, she wrote: "We mistook liberty and democracy for liberty to buy in the West, but in the end we paid the price of three wars. Our children were killed in the wars, and I Feel responsible to this day." (International Herald Tribune, November 7, 2009) The economies of Eastern European countries are relatively developed, and their populations are far smaller than those of China (except for Poland and Romania, which have a population of more than 20 million, and the Czech Republic, which has a population of 10 million, the population of other countries is only a few million, which is smaller than any medium-sized city in China) , the level of education is not low, and the homogeneity with Western culture is also significantly higher than that of China, and the European Union and the United States have also provided a lot of assistance and guidance.However, after 20 years of adopting the Western political system, the result is so unsatisfactory. It is indeed worth pondering for us Chinese in our own democratic construction.The aforementioned "democracy but no democrats", "no compromise", "deeply divided society", "no real politicians", "no independent judiciary", "no efficient "Civil servants" and other issues are also issues that we must pay attention to in the construction of democracy.This can also make us more confident in exploring China's own path. Copying the Western model will only be a disaster for a super-large country like ours whose historical and cultural heritage is much different from that of Eastern Europe. Not long ago, I emailed Mr. H in Hungary, asking him about Hungary’s response to the financial crisis, and I hope he and his family are safe and sound.He wrote me back very quickly, writing very simply: "The whole of Hungary is waiting for a bailout from the IMF, and the IMF is waiting for a bailout from China." He was exaggerating, but he also seemed to be saying something truth. The dramatic changes in Eastern Europe in 1989 shocked the world. At that time, the entire West was optimistic about Eastern Europe and not China.But Deng Xiaoping, who was very clear-headed, said 14 words to his American guests: "Don't be too happy, the problem is still very complicated." He let the Chinese continue to follow their own path.It cannot be said that China has not had ups and downs along the way, and it cannot be said that there have been no ups and downs, but China's final report card is much brighter than that of Eastern Europe, and the Chinese have learned a lot of beneficial things from the experience of Eastern Europe.