Chapter 10 4. Why is 1+1 greater than 2 in China?

Whether the Chinese see China themselves or foreigners see China, there is a problem of "blind men feeling the elephant" because China is too big.If you cannot touch the whole body of an elephant, but only part of it, it is easy to describe the elephant as a rope, a pillar, a wall, or a fan, and no one can convince anyone.The commonly used statement that the total GDP is very large but the per capita GDP is still very low cannot clarify the problem, because it still does not resolve the relationship between quantity and quality, so it is not easy to make people feel.How to accurately grasp China's real level of development and predict China's future, I tend to use the "sector concept" and "sector relationship concept" to analyze.

I think this is first of all to straighten out the relationship between quantity and quality.If we only talk about China's relatively large economic aggregate or China's relatively low per capita income, then what we are discussing is only a quantitative concept, not a qualitative difference, but the difference between developed and developing countries is not just a quantitative difference. Rather, it is a qualitative difference, the difference between agricultural civilization and industrial civilization, the difference between modern countries and non-modern countries. Today, China has formed a large "quasi-developed country" plate and a super-large "emerging economy" plate.If the main features of the former are modern economy, modern management, modern research and development, and modern service industry, then the main features of the latter are huge scale effect and cost effect. The combination of the two is a combination of quality and quantity in a sense.This combination produces a China effect where 1+1 is greater than 2.It is this combination that has allowed China to rise so quickly.According to calculations by scholar Hu Angang, the number of Internet users in the United States was about 3,000 times that of China in 1993, and in 2008 China was already 1.2 times that of the United States.In terms of mobile phone users, the gap between China and the United States reached 1,760 times in 1987, but now the number of users in the United States is only 40% of that in China.Broadband development, the United States was 300 times that of China in 2000, but by 2008 China had surpassed the United States.We originally thought that China could become the world's largest auto market in 2020, but we did it in 2009.The reason why China's rise and the Chinese model have become hot topics all over the world is not that the Chinese themselves want to talk about this topic, but the Chinese don't want to talk about it. 2, they had to look at China with admiration.

Second, the concept of "plate" is conducive to a better understanding of China's real situation.Earlier I mentioned the confusion and embarrassment that the "average temperature in China" way of thinking has brought to Chinese people and the outside world.Saying that China is just a developing country is hard to convince people today.It is difficult for anyone who understands the situation in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America to accept it.We are doing better than them in many ways, including most of the rural areas.Similarly, if we only say that China is the world's second largest economy, it will make people ignore China's underdeveloped side.So when you clearly explain the two sectors of China and their interaction, people will have a clearer understanding of China's true development level and prospects.Affected by the thinking of "China's average temperature", some Swiss watch companies believe that China is still a poor country, so they are not optimistic about the consumption power of the Chinese market. They insist on continuing to focus on the US and Japanese markets (such as TAG Heuer). Due to the impact of the financial crisis, sales in the past two years have dropped sharply, and those companies with sector awareness (such as OMEGA) have long established themselves in the development of the Chinese market, because they realize that the actual consumption power of China's developed sectors alone is Probably more than Japan, maybe even more than the United States.The sales of these companies in the Chinese market have skyrocketed in recent years.It can be said that China's developed sector saved the Swiss watch industry in 2009.

The same is true for the Chinese themselves. The concept of "plate" is to evaluate themselves more objectively, to demand themselves more strictly and to develop themselves.We cannot always use "China is still a developing country" as an excuse to excuse our shortcomings.For first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, most of their frames of reference should be New York, London, Paris, and Tokyo, and they must firmly strive to surpass Western metropolises in more and more aspects.The reference standard for our developed sector should be the level of developed countries, which can motivate us to learn and innovate better, and ultimately do better than developed countries.Similarly, our "emerging economies" sector should also find its own frame of reference, learn from the experience and lessons of others, and constantly make new progress and reach new heights.

Third, the concept of two plates can change our understanding of China from "static" to "dynamic".China's economy is not a collection of numbers, let alone a numbers game, but a large-scale interaction between two sectors.China's 1+1 is not Europe+Africa.Europe's relationship with Africa is more or less a postcolonial one.The wealth of Europe is to some extent based on the poverty and backwardness of Africa.In other words, the world economic and political order dominated by the West makes it difficult for Africa to develop.For example, the huge agricultural subsidies in Europe prevent Africa as a whole from taking advantage of its comparative advantages in agriculture.In China, our 1+1 two plates are of the same language and species, connected by blood, blood is thicker than water, and there is a relatively neutral and efficient central government on it that is comprehensively planning and vigorously promoting the benign 1+1 Therefore, the relationship between these two plates in China is a relationship of mutual support and common development, which will make China's economy and society full of vitality.

Fourth, 1+1 also reflects the strategic considerations of China's development model.This also allows us to understand from another perspective why Deng Xiaoping so eagerly hoped that places in China with better conditions would develop first.In this world where Western powers are eyeing, if China does not have its own developed sector, China will be beaten everywhere, its economy may be completely destroyed by Western developed countries and their multinational companies, and the entire country may become a vassal of developed countries.Once there is any crisis, China immediately becomes the biggest victim.The tragedies brought by the Asian financial crisis to countries such as Thailand and Indonesia, and the disasters brought by the financial tsunami to Eastern Europe all illustrate this problem.From the beginning of the reform and opening up, we decided to allow some places with better conditions to develop first.Deng Xiaoping said many times that it would be good to have several Hong Kongs in mainland China, in order to form our own developed plate as soon as possible.Only with such a plate can the development of the entire country be driven, and China will be competitive.Such a plate means that China has formed its own "core industry", "leading enterprises", "competent products" and a huge consumer group.

This is a bit like the story of "Tian Ji Horse Racing" in ancient China.Tian Ji's overall strength is not as good as his opponent's, but under the guidance of Sun Tzu, through the recombination of top, middle, and dismounted horses, Tian Ji took advantage of some of his relative advantages and won the game.The same is true for China. By forming its own developed plate as soon as possible, it has created a partial asymmetric advantage in international competition, thus driving the entire country under the situation of "the enemy is strong and we are weak" in this highly competitive international environment. The progress of the company has embarked on its own development path, and it will become wider and wider.When Friedman lamented that the most developed cities in the United States no longer looked as good as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dalian, he was actually acknowledging the shock that our asymmetrical advantages had brought to the United States and the entire West.With such a sector, our chances of winning the economic competition with developed countries will be greatly increased.The huge international competitiveness we have formed in aerospace, shipbuilding, electromechanical, high-speed rail, automobile, construction, subway and other fields is inseparable from this spatial strategic layout.

In fact, today's developed countries are also striving to form an economic regional arrangement in which 1+1 is greater than 2.The European Union has expanded to 27 member states in the past decade, bringing in the relatively backward countries of Eastern Europe.If per capita GDP is used to calculate, the European Union will be poorer after the entry of Eastern Europe, and Eastern Europe will pull down the EU's per capita GDP by a lot.But the EU brought in Eastern Europe in order to increase competitiveness, especially to obtain relatively abundant human resources and market size in Eastern Europe, forming a situation in which 1+1 is greater than 2 within Europe.The United States and Canada brought in Mexico, a populous country, to build the North American Free Trade Area for the same reason.When the economies of developed countries have developed to a certain level, problems such as market saturation and high labor costs have emerged, and they all want to solve them through the 1+1 method.Of course, due to various reasons, the 1+1 of the European Union and the 1+1 of the North American Free Trade Area have not achieved their expected goals. Instead, they have caused a lot of internal friction, and there are many complaints from all parties.In contrast to China, its 1+1 greater than 2 situation has already changed the entire country and has begun to affect the entire world.China can achieve this level, but Europe and North America cannot. In the final analysis, it is because the integration within a "civilized country" is much easier than the integration across civilizations.I will elaborate on this in the next chapter.

When talking about the internal problems of "civilized countries", we also need to have a "block concept", so that it is easy to accurately locate our problems.Some people always want to deny China's achievements in a generalized way, exaggerate local problems infinitely and deny China's development model.In fact, China's population is more than 4 times that of the United States, and it is not surprising that China has 4 times more problems than the United States (if you consider the United States to be a normal country).It is unwise to focus on some problems in China to deny China's great progress as a whole.For example, based on my own observations, the corruption in Shanghai is lower than that in Italy, the urban governance in Shanghai is higher than Rome and New York, and the governance in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang is significantly higher than that of Greece, even though Greece and Italy are considered developed countries , New York is also a top city in developed countries.These achievements are remarkable, because the size of 1 Shanghai is equal to 2 Greece and 3 Switzerland; 1 Zhejiang Province is equal to 5 Greece; The sum of European countries, any achievements made on such a large scale are enough to have a demonstration effect on other regions in China and have a shocking effect on the entire world.In other words, the use of plate analysis is to grasp and understand ourselves more accurately and realistically, so that we can see the future of the country more clearly.If China's developed regions can do better than developed countries in many places, then other regions in China can gradually catch up, or even catch up and do better. Today's Chongqing and Inner Mongolia have demonstrated this momentum.An important feature of the Chinese model is to encourage healthy competition among various regions. If one region does well, other regions will feel the pressure of competition and follow suit.

Finally, 1+1 greater than 2 produces a gratifying "two-eighth effect".Italian classical economist Vilfredo Pareto (Vilfredo Pareto) put forward the famous concept of "February 8 Effect".That is to say, in any set of things, grasping the key 20% can produce 80% of the effect.This is also a common phenomenon in our lives: 20% of a company's customers can create 80% of its revenue; 20% of an enterprise's backbone can drive 80% of its employees.This is also the main outline advocated by traditional Chinese philosophy.China's reform and opening up, starting from the special zone, to promoting the opening of the coast, to the development of Pudong, to the "central and western development strategy", is actually the same reason.Today, China has formed a gratifying situation where 20% of the regions create 80% of the wealth and promote the overall progress of the entire country.If it is said that China's "quasi-developed" sector has brought about the "28th effect" of China's rise, then we can say that the current "Midwest Development Strategy" is to continue to adopt the "28th effect" in 80% of the regions. , that is to seize 20% of the development of key urban agglomerations to drive the overall progress of the entire Midwest.Judging from the development momentum of the Chongqing metropolitan agglomeration, the Chengdu metropolitan agglomeration, the Guanzhong metropolitan agglomeration, and the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Tanshan metropolitan agglomeration, this new "February 8 effect" is constantly emerging.I think the general trend in China in the future will be the continuous expansion and extension of the "February 8 Effect" until the full realization of the modernization of the entire country.

Of course, dynamic regional development will also have negative effects: the regional gap may be widened within a certain period of time, but the purpose of our development is to make the whole country and all people rich, so we need to have a clear historical vision , we need to understand the history of world modernization.In the world, except for a few ultra-small countries, no country with a medium size or larger can achieve simultaneous development across the country.The United States develops the east first, and then expands to the west; Japan develops the central region first, and then expands to the whole country; France develops the Greater Paris area first, and then radiates the whole country.The region that develops first can play a role in agglomerating wealth and radiating effects, and drive more regions to develop. This is a shortcut to achieve the overall development of the entire country. In my book "China Touches the World", I used Shanghai Pudong as an example to explain that it is more important than anything else to establish a positive interaction mechanism between rich areas and relatively backward areas.The per capita GDP of Pudong has long exceeded 10,000 US dollars, assuming that the per capita GDP of a certain area in Guizhou Province in China is 100 US dollars.If you look at it mechanically, this gap is too big, and the difference between the two regions is 100 times. You have to narrow it down, or even take the method of robbing the rich and giving to the poor, but this is unwise.The key here is to look at the relationship between Pudong's economic development and the development of other parts of China.Pudong's fiscal revenue in 2006 was 58.7 billion yuan, of which 51.4% was handed over to the central government, which means that nearly 30 billion yuan was used for national development, and part of it may be used to help this area of ​​Guizhou Province.If there is such a relationship between rich areas and backward areas, this is a virtuous circle, we don't have to worry too much, just make sure that Pudong's money flows to the backward areas and helps the people there get rich.I said at the time, "It's like in a family, there is one member who can make money especially, his income is higher than other family members, but he can use a considerable part of the money he earns to help the poorer family members temporarily. Members, this is a virtuous circle, why not do it?" China's "quasi-developed countries" sector is like the Pudong of the whole country, which has the characteristics of a large number of talents, a wide range of resources, a large value-added effect, and strong radiation capabilities.These characteristics can be said to be hard-won for China, and they are rare in a century. Negating them and engaging in egalitarianism will only lead to poverty in the whole country in the end.China's "semi-developed" sector is a hen that lays golden eggs for the people of the whole country. If the fiscal revenue it turns over can serve the whole country, if it can continue to provide various counterparts to underdeveloped regions, if its comprehensive radiation capabilities can Serving other parts of China, I think the fatter the hen, the better, because this is a virtuous circle.In the final analysis, regional differences are not as large as possible, nor as small as possible. To look at it dialectically and dynamically, the key is to see whether a mechanism for benign interaction can be established between richer and poorer regions. If it is benign interaction, this gap will bring more positive effects. Judging from international experience, it is difficult to narrow the regional gap in GDP per capita in the short term, and it is even more difficult in countries with vast territories.Therefore, further developing and perfecting the benign interaction mechanism between the two plates of China is the best way to realize national modernization.In retrospect, Deng Xiaoping repeatedly said: China wants to build a few Hong Kongs, Shanghai is our trump card, Guangdong wants to take the lead in surpassing the Four Tigers, and we want to make some places rich first, and then drive the development of other places. This is the same principle.What is gratifying is that the vision envisioned by Deng Xiaoping back then is becoming a reality in China today.