Chapter 16 2. From the Assassination of Bhutto to the Kenyan Riots

On the night of December 27, 2007, I saw on TV that Mrs. Benjamin Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party, was assassinated in Rawalpindi. I felt sad and emotional at the same time.Because Pakistan is a country I am very familiar with, and Pakistan has also been an all-weather friend of China for decades. The friendship between China and Pakistan has a very solid foundation, whether at the top or in the people.I myself have been to Pakistan 3 times if you count even the short transit. In November 1985, I accompanied the then Vice Premier Yao Yilin to meet Pakistani President General Zia al-Haq.Ben Bhutto's father, Ali Bhutto, was overthrown by General Haq in a coup and was finally sentenced to death. However, Bhutto's family and General Haq are close friends of China.General Harker himself was tragically killed in a bizarre plane crash in 1988.People generally suspected that it was murder, but in the end they couldn't find out the cause, so they had to let it go.Democracy in Pakistan has gone all the way, and it can be said that it has cycled in a cycle of general elections, chaos, coups, assassinations, and general elections. It is really a bit miserable.

What I saw on TV was not only the scenes of blood and blood, but also the cityscape and streets of Rawalpindi that I was familiar with. More than 20 years have passed, and the city is still in such a mess. The houses are still dilapidated, and the streets are still mixed with people and animals. Compared with when I visited this city more than 20 years ago, I can't see any changes.Over the years, Pakistan’s economic development has not been very smooth, and people’s livelihood has not improved significantly. Its democratic system is like a castle built on the beach without a solid foundation. Disjointed up and down.

A retired Pakistani government official said to me: “I sympathize with Mrs. Bhutto, but even if she is not assassinated and is successfully elected as prime minister, she will encounter great difficulties. How can she ensure that the Pakistani army cooperates with her? Guarantee that Pakistan’s intelligence and governance system cooperates with her? How to ensure that the tribal elders representing Pakistan’s Islamic forces cooperate with her? Without such cooperation, how can she integrate society and govern the country? Mrs. Bhutto’s supporters are mainly the poor and a group of pro- Western liberal intellectuals. But Mrs. Bhutto is incapable of integrating Pakistani society. She was not a good prime minister in the past. Now that she is dead, her son is elected as the leader of the BJP. This is the order in her will. This fact itself is It shows that there is a big problem with the quality of our democracy." The West regards one person, one vote as the only indicator of democracy, and does not consider the many complicated conditions for the successful operation of a country at all, while Western countries themselves have experienced hundreds of years of development and development. Through running-in, a solid economic foundation, a huge middle class, and a relatively stable political and legal system have been formed, and then universal suffrage began.

The plight of Pakistani democracy actually reflects the plight often encountered by the entire third world democracy: First, a leader supported by the poor is elected to power, but this kind of leader is often unable to integrate social forces, develop the economy, and improve people's livelihood. However, the military government is often incapable of governing the country, and the people once again demand democratization. After the democratically elected government came to power, the cycle started again. Three days after Mrs. Bhutto's death, the results of the Kenyan general election in Africa caused controversy, conflict and fighting.I know the situation in Kenya quite well, because I have been to Kenya 4 times, the last time was in April 2007.I discussed China-Africa relations and China's development model with African colleagues from the African Economic Research Institute in Kenya. African friends are very interested.During the discussion, our topic quickly turned to the Chinese model and Kenyan politics. At that time, Kenya’s general election was in full swing. A scholar asked me, what do you think of the upcoming general election in Kenya?I smiled and asked him, do you want to listen to diplomatic rhetoric?Or a friend's advice?He said of course he should speak out.I told him frankly: "According to my observation, one of the characteristics of general elections in African countries is that people of the same tribe generally only vote for members of their own tribe. In this way, the results of your election may further divide the people. If it is not done well, it will lead to social turmoil.” I said: “From China’s experience, if a developing country does not focus on improving people’s livelihood but on political disputes, it is difficult to generate positive results. the result of."

Kenya has a population of just over 30 million, but they belong to more than 40 different tribes. Among them, the Kikuyu and Luo tribes are the most populous. The two political parties competing in the election represent these two tribes respectively. Most of the tribe members identify with their own tribe more than they identify with Kenya.I asked the manager of the hotel where I was staying, who are you going to vote for, and he said that he must vote for the candidate from his tribe.Most countries in Africa are far from forming nation-states like Europe.The hotel manager is from the Luo ethnic group. He said to me: "I am a Luo ethnic group first, and then I am a Kenyan." Then it is the Chinese, it will be very difficult for our country to maintain national unity and unity.Africa is now imitating the Western democratic model. When nation-states have not yet been formed, there is one-person-one-vote universal suffrage. As a result, many societies have become more divided and turbulent.

Another scholar asked me, if the Chinese model is adopted, what do you think Kenya should do?I said that the characteristic of the Chinese model is that it does not promote its own model, but I can share a little personal opinion, and you can forget it after listening to it, and they laughed.I said: "You have 7 provinces and a provincial special zone. Is there any governor who is recognized by everyone as doing a better job? If so, you can consider electing him to be the head of the country through appropriate procedures. It’s called political achievement legitimacy.” I also said: “An ideal political system should be a combination of political achievement legitimacy and electoral legitimacy. Now the West is promoting democracy in developing countries only talking about election legitimacy, not political achievement legitimacy. Ideal." The chairman of the meeting said: "Our Chinese friend's suggestion is very reasonable, but it is already difficult to do so in Kenya." I nodded in agreement.

Sure enough, in the Kenyan general election in December, there were doubts about the election results, followed by ethnic conflicts and massacres, resulting in thousands of deaths, countless injuries, and the displacement of more than 300,000 people. The national economy and people's lives were severely damaged. , so far not out of breath.In fact, it is not that I have any foresight, but anyone who believes in "seeking truth from facts" can come to the same conclusion after staying in Kenya for three days and doing a little research.On the day I arrived in Kenya, it was reported on TV that there were some sporadic conflicts between the two main tribes in Kenya, and ominous signs had already appeared. Even the driver who drove me told me that there might be problems with law and order during the general election in December.

Ironically, the British "Economist" magazine, which has international influence, published a commentary on the Kenyan election on December 22, 2007. The title is "Although there are shortcomings, (Kenya) is still another country "Role Model", saying that in the turbulent land of Africa, there is finally such an oasis of democracy where peaceful and universal suffrage is held, and it can become a model for other countries.I read the article and couldn't help laughing, thinking, the author of this kind of article should really come to China to learn what is called "seeking truth from facts".

Of course, the author may not have malicious intentions. After all, the situation in Kenya was better than that of its neighbors.In the more than 50 years since its independence in 1956, Sudan in the north of Kenya can be counted as peaceful for only 11 years, and the rest of the time has been spent in war.Somalia to the east is also in a state of anarchy amid warlord melee.The not-too-distant Democratic Republic of the Congo experienced the "First World War in Africa" ​​a few years ago, with at least 5 million people killed. Uganda on the edge is also not peaceful, and northern Uganda has been in a state of war.

Half a month later, on January 5, 2008, The Economist magazine published another article titled "Murder and Robbery in Broad Daylight, (Kenya) Ethnic Cleansing May Turn into Civil War", accompanied by Pictures of clans fighting and raging fire.How can such an authoritative Western magazine be so careless when analyzing the politics of other countries?In two weeks, a country was sent from "a role model for other countries" to the 18th hell, without explaining to others how did it turn around?Sometimes I really admire the courage of the Western media. They always make mistakes in predicting other people's affairs, but they rarely admit their mistakes.

Over the past 30 years, the Western media's predictions about China have been full of fallacies, but they have never expressed apology or introspection. The same was true for the coverage of the Tibetan riots in 2008, which lost basic professional ethics and professional standards.For example, almost all Western media interpreted the images of Nepalese military police beating Tibetans as Chinese armed police beating Tibetans, which caused bad international influence.The deep-seated problem of the Western media is that ideology is at work, and they always think that their system represents the best system in the world, and their values ​​are universal values.No matter what problems other people encounter, the West, from politicians to the media, responds to all changes with the same attitude. All they prescribe are multi-party systems and universal suffrage. They cannot cure diseases, and even treat people with disabilities and death. It's all the patient's business and has nothing to do with the person who prescribes it. The West is only concerned with formal democracy, arguing that form itself produces justice, but as the Kenyan-born British journalist Aidan Hartley commented candidly on elections in some African countries: “Voting is nothing more than giving Those corrupt officials have a cloak of legality, which allows them to plunder the people as they please for five years, and once this cycle ends, the next cycle begins.” He also said that these politicians have also fully grasped the psychology of the West. When speaking in English, what you speak is human language, and once you speak in your own dialect, what you speak is nonsense.These politicians took helicopters to places where the people gathered and spoke about democracy and human rights in English. This was for Western journalists, and ordinary people could not understand it. But when they switched to dialects, they were full of hatred for other tribes. and verbal abuse. The social structure of many African countries is still a traditional tribal and patriarchal society.Who is leading the fight between tribes?He is the elder and witch doctor of the village.Politicians colluded with these people. As soon as they spoke, many people below started beating, smashing, looting and killing people from other tribes.There is an African proverb: When elephants fight, the grass suffers.The elephants are the politicians, and the grass is the common people.Politics in many African countries is often a zero-sum game, where the winner gets everything and the loser loses everything.The results of elections are almost completely divided according to tribe and religion. People of the same tribe will always choose people from their own tribe, and people of the same religion will always choose people from their own religion. Combat, riot, civil war.And all this is combined with corruption from top to bottom in government agencies, because government positions are all fat and vacant, bringing a lot of benefits to individuals, and once they have power, they will do everything possible to protect this power.According to my observation, among so many poor countries in Africa, probably only a few countries such as Tanzania and Ghana have basically stepped out of the vicious circle of tribalism, but even so, the economic development of Tanzania and Ghana is still lagging behind. Bustling cities like Arusha and Accra also feel like Chinese county towns 30 years ago. We can draw a conclusion from the setbacks of Pakistan and Kenya: any government of a developing country that is responsible to its own people should explore its own development path according to its own national conditions.However, the world order dominated by the West has prevented many developing countries from having such a right to choose. As a result, they can only follow the steps of the West, resulting in constant crises and difficulties in the development of these countries.In this sense, China is lucky. China is a big country that can control its own destiny and refuse foreign forces to dominate China's future development direction under any pretense.