Chapter 15 Chapter 3 Western "democracy" meets China's "seeking truth from facts"

In late June 2007, in a picturesque summer resort on the outskirts of Munich, the well-known Marshall Forum held a symposium on China, in which I gave a lecture on China's rise and its international influence.The discussion after the presentation was very interesting.A European scholar asked me: "When do you think China will achieve democratization?" I asked back: "How do you define the concept of democratization?" He was a little impatient: "It's very simple: one person, one vote, universal suffrage, rotation of political parties. Substitute." After speaking, he added: "At least this is our European value." I expressed my complete understanding and respect for European values, but I asked him immediately: "Have you ever thought that China also has its own values, one of which is Seeking truth from facts, English is called seek truth from facts (seek truth from facts)?" I continued, "We searched for a long time from the facts, but we did not find a country where developing countries have achieved modernization through the democratization you mentioned. Example. I have visited more than 100 countries, but I still haven’t found one.” I then politely asked him to provide such an example.He couldn't answer right away.I said: "You can think about it and tell me." At this time, an American scholar raised his hand and said loudly: "India." I asked him: "Have you been to India?" He said: "No." I Said: "I have been there twice, and I have been from north to south, from east to west. My feeling is that India is at least 20 years behind China, or even 30 years. I watched in Mumbai and Calcutta. I have seen more poverty than I have seen in China in 20 years combined."

He stopped talking.At this moment, the scholar who asked the question said: "Botswana?" I asked: "Have you been there?" He said: "No." I said: "I have been there and met the President of Botswana. Botswana has indeed implemented a Western democratic system without major turmoil. This country is very rich in resources and relatively single in ethnic composition, but even with such good conditions, Botswana is still a very backward developing country. For quite a long time, the average life expectancy was less than 40 years.” "And what about Costa Rica?" asked another scholar.I asked him: "Have you ever been to this country?" The answer was "No".I said: "I visited this country in 2002. It is also a small country with a population of just over 4 million. Compared with other countries in Central America, Costa Rica is politically stable and economically prosperous. More than 90% of the country's population is European The descendants of the descendants, the starting point in all aspects is not low. It is a pity that Costa Rica is still a rather backward country, and the gap between the rich and the poor is very large. 20% of the population is still in poverty. The capital San Jose feels more like a big village. Lots of tin houses, slums."

It seemed to me that everyone couldn’t give other examples at the moment, so I simply asked: “Should I give examples where the Western democratization model failed in developing countries? Give 10, 20, 30, or more? "I briefly talked about the Philippines, a democratic country founded by the United States, Liberia, a democratic country in Africa founded by black Americans, Haiti at the doorstep of the United States, and today's unlucky Iraq. Some in the audience began to nod, some shook their heads, but no one rose to retort.I then asked another question: "All of you here are from developed countries, can you give me an example, not two, to explain which developed country today is before realizing modernization, or in the process of realizing modernization? One who engages in universal suffrage?" Still no one answered.I said: "Afro-American voting rights did not really start until 1965. Switzerland did not achieve universal suffrage in the true sense until 1971 when all women were granted the right to vote. If Western-style democratization is to be promoted, Western First of all, you must explain to others clearly why your own real democratization process, without exception, is gradual and only realized after modernization? If this issue is thoroughly studied, we will have a common language.”

I also mentioned a hypothesis of my own by the way: "If China implements universal suffrage today, what kind of result will it be? If fortunately China does not fall apart and does not start a civil war, we may elect a peasant government, because the peasants The number of people is the largest. I am not discriminating against farmers. We can go back up to three or four generations, and everyone is a farmer. We will not forget our own farmers’ roots. We do not discriminate against farmers or people from rural areas. But even the leaders Chairman Mao Zedong of the peasant movement has said countless times: The serious problem lies in educating the peasants. A peasant government cannot lead a great modernization cause, and you know this better than I do.”

At this time, an unconvinced scholar said: "Democracy itself is sacred and noble. This is a universal value, and China should accept it." I said: "Democracy is a universal value, but is this form of democracy in the West universal? value is still very controversial. Why can’t you be more confident? If your system is so good, people will come to learn from you sooner or later. But if you forcefully promote your system in the world in the name of universal values, even for this reason It would be too much to use force. Take a look at Iraq today. According to the latest report from the BBC, the residents of Baghdad began to describe their city as 'hell on earth', but naive Americans thought that the Iraqi people would take welcome them with flowers."

At that time, because there were many other interesting issues, the issue of democratization was not discussed further.In fact, anyone who takes the time to read a few introductory books on Western democratic theory will know that most of the great masters of democratic theory in the West, from Montesquieu to Schumpeter, do not agree with democracy for the sake of democracy. Democracy is a procedure, an institutional arrangement, and a rule of the game, characterized by "limited participation" rather than "unlimited participation."Of course, there are also idealists like Rousseau who called for popular sovereignty and continued revolution, but France paid an extremely heavy price for this, and what finally achieved was not Rousseau's desired goal of democracy, but instrumental democracy.

In 2006, I published a commentary on the American International Herald Tribune, talking about the problems that the West has brought to developing countries by forcefully exporting its own democratic model: the West "takes the lead in ideology and promotes large-scale radical democracy. ignoring the specific conditions of a place, and seeing Africa and less developed places as mature societies in which Western systems can take root naturally. Promoting democratization before the formation of a tolerant political culture and a society ruled by law often results in Depressing, even catastrophic."

Edward D. Mansfield, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania in the United States, and Jack Snyder, a professor at Columbia University, recently published a book "Election to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War" ( Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War).The basic point of view in the book is that the process of moving towards the Western democratic model is most likely to cause internal conflicts or external wars, because politicians can easily win votes as long as they play the "populist" card.Throughout the 1990s, many countries held free elections and immediately went to war: Armenia fought Azerbaijan, Ecuador fought Peru, Ethiopia fought Eritrea, and the Burundi-Rwanda massacre killed more than a million people, of course And the painful division and war in Yugoslavia.I visited all the countries of the former Yugoslavia in 2006. The most conservative estimate of the number of deaths in the Bosnian war alone was more than 100,000. The deadliest war since the Great War.How many crimes are committed in the name of promoting universal values.

Looking at China again, following its own path, it has maintained stability for more than 30 years, its economic scale has expanded by 18 times, and people's living standards have generally improved. Although there are still various problems, some of which are quite serious, China's rise , the whole world is obvious to all, and most Chinese people are also optimistic about the future of the country.China's relative success has won China a valuable right to speak. This right to speak is to be able to reason on an equal footing with the West. If you are right, I will listen to you;If everyone listened to the West, China would have disintegrated long ago.

The same is true on the issue of democratization. The West still has not got rid of the thinking mode of "I am orthodox and everyone else is heretic". This thinking mode has led to countless wars in history and almost destroyed Western civilization itself. Many truths could have been learned from it, but the West, especially the United States, seems to have not learned enough lessons from it.If the West really wants to promote democracy in developing countries, it should carefully summarize the history of its own democratic development. One of the key issues is the sequence of democratization.The order of the evolution of the original Western democratic society can be roughly summarized as follows: first, the development of economy and education, second, the construction of civic culture and a society ruled by law, and finally democratization.Get this sequence wrong, and a society often has to pay a heavy price.Now the West is asking the third world to complete democratization in one step, and treat the last step as the first step, or combine the three steps into one step, so it's no wonder that there will be no troubles.

The world is progressing, and democracy is no longer the monopoly and privilege of the West. The new technological revolution has provided various new means for democracy. Other countries with non-Western cultural traditions are entirely possible, and should also explore their own unique democratic roads and form.As a latecomer, in the process of building its own democracy, China should draw useful experience and profound lessons from the democratic practices of the developed countries and the third world today, transcend the narrow and rigid concept of democracy in the West, and promote Gradual and in-depth reform of the political system in accordance with national conditions, and strive to eventually catch up with others and establish a prosperous and harmonious new democratic society.