Chapter 36 Use the power of "IQ" to turn the "crude oil problem" into a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity

Needless to say, there are still many things that have caused "government depression" in Japan so far.But the reason there is this sense of closure right now is that a lot of people are swayed by the idea of ​​"I can't figure out how to do it." Let me say it's not "IQ decline" but "IQ laziness". Over the years I have been repeating that "Things can improve if you just think about it" and have made many similar suggestions.If you read my book, you will find that I have many proposals to break Japan's current sense of isolation, but there is only one proposal that advocates using thinking ability to turn "government depression" into "government prosperity".That is, in the future, the unstable factor affecting the world economy - the large fluctuation of "crude oil price" - should be turned into an opportunity for Japan's development.

In July 2008, at the G8 summit held in Lake Toya, Hokkaido, the leaders of all countries unanimously adopted the declaration of "halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2050", and made this declaration a long-term goal for the common development of the world. I can only catch this message: "Japan is happy to admit that it is an energy power." Maybe many people will retort: ​​"How is that possible?!" So, anyway, please think a little here. My answer is: "Develop nuclear energy and use nuclear energy to generate electricity." Let me explain the reason behind this.

At this summit, due to Germany's indecision, the proposal of "conversion to nuclear power generation" was not put on the agenda, nor did it become a summit declaration. However, in response to the increase in crude oil prices and the reduction of carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions On the other hand, these developed countries have reached a consensus. If the cost of nuclear energy and oil with the same energy content is compared, if they are both $40, then their cost is the same; if the price of a barrel of crude oil is $60, although the cost of disposing of radioactive waste will increase, in the end it will be Nuclear power is a bargain; if crude oil exceeds $100 a barrel, nuclear power is overwhelming.

Moreover, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by nuclear energy is also very small, which is an environmentally friendly energy source. Twenty years ago, I served as the chairman of a nuclear energy industry conference held in Kyoto. At that time, scholars from all over the world came to the conclusion that nuclear power generation is the most environmentally friendly way of generating electricity. Uranium, the fuel needed for nuclear power generation, is not a scarce resource. It is estimated that Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, South Africa, the United States, Namibia, Brazil, Niger, Russia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Jordan and other countries are countries with abundant uranium reserves.

The US and Russia have nuclear weapons.After the end of the Cold War, there were still large deposits of uranium in the non-disused nuclear weapons of both countries.Although "sharing peace" between the two countries became a hot topic for a while after the end of the Cold War, what the two countries really want to share is this high-purity uranium. In Japan, plutonium extracted from nuclear power plant waste was mixed with uranium to make a new fuel - MOX (mixed oxide). This method is called thermal utilization of plutonium. If the uranium and plutonium in nuclear weapons are counted, then in the 21st century, the fuel for nuclear power generation will not be exhausted.Even if high-speed breeder furnaces called atomic furnaces cannot be used in practice, the reserves of these energy sources are superior compared with petroleum.

People are already using nuclear energy now.Currently, there are 120 nuclear power plants to be built in the world.Now, China needs 30 10 million-kilowatt nuclear power plants to make up for the power shortage, and India is also planning to build 30 nuclear power plants.Since Russia had to dismantle the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, it is said that 30 more nuclear power plants will also need to be built.In addition, the United States also plans to build 30 nuclear power plants in 2010. It is worth mentioning that Japan holds the leading position in the world in the construction of atomic furnaces.This is because there are only 4 companies capable of building nuclear power plants in the world today, and 3 of them are Japanese companies.These four companies are Japan's Hitachi, Toshiba, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and France's Areva Group, whose nuclear power business accounts for nearly 80% of the world's total.

In fact, developed countries in Europe and the United States used to have nuclear energy industries, but because of frequent accidents and national opposition to nuclear energy development (German Green Party, etc.), and crude oil has always been at a low price of 20 to 30 US dollars, so these countries are interested in nuclear energy. Demand was so low that the development of nuclear energy was eventually abandoned. For example, in 2001, Germany's Siemens sold its nuclear energy division to France's Framatome (a subsidiary of the Areva Group). In addition, the American General Corporation committed to the development of BWR (boiling water type light water furnace) and the United States WH Industries Corporation committed to the development of PWR (pressurized water-cooled atomic furnace), since the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in 1979, nearly In the past 30 years, they have not developed commercial nuclear power, so they have lost the manufacturing base for people's livelihood. The designers and engineers of the atomic furnace have disappeared. Nuclear energy development is only possible with assistance.

In contrast to Japan, Toshiba alone has orders for the construction of 33 nuclear power plants, all of which cost a lot of money.Because each nuclear power plant needs to cost nearly 500 billion to 600 billion yen in addition to land purchase fees and security funds provided to surrounding residents. Japan has not carried out the construction of nuclear power plants for nearly 10 years. If this situation develops for another 10 years, I am afraid that it will face the exhaustion of engineer resources just like the United States.