Chapter 36 8. Ten short-term economic forecasts

2011 is the beginning of China's twelfth five-year plan.In the field of macroeconomics, there are still many questions: economic growth, price fluctuations, real estate, income tax reform, creation of land tax, potential of emerging industries, etc.Here are ten predictions for China's economy in 2011. 9% economic growth: Rapid development will occur in 2011, and the economic growth rate is expected to reach 9%.Consumption, exports and fixed investment will continue to grow.Due to inflation and monetary tightening, the growth rate of consumption and exports will slow down slightly.But as the first year of the twelfth five-year plan, fixed investment will undoubtedly maintain a high growth rate of 20%.

Inflation is controlled at 4% to 5%: In terms of industrial production, there is an oversupply.In 2011 there will be no phenomenon of overheating demand.But there are two factors that will lead to rising prices: one is the delay effect, and it is estimated that there will be 4% inflation in November 2010; the other is the increase in imports.Rising labor costs will also push up prices of agricultural products. The consumer price index in 2011 will climb 4% to 5%. Active budget policy to improve economic structure: In 2011, China will implement an active budget policy.As the economy stabilizes, the fiscal deficit in 2011 will be reduced by 2.5% to 2%.The purpose of implementing budget policies is to adjust the economic structure: building social housing, developing the western regions, developing emerging industries, and so on.

Increase of the "three rates": In 2010, interest rates, reserve ratios and exchange rates all changed, and the trend will continue until 2011.In order to better control inflation, China's central bank will continue to raise interest rates.If necessary, the reserve ratio will be increased to 20%.The yuan will rise by about 3 percent to ensure balance of payments. Income distribution policy reform: In recent years, the income gap of the Chinese people has become wider and wider, which has aroused widespread concern from the whole society.The Chinese people need to adjust income distribution reasonably.Increasing the share of personal income in state income is the focus of the reforms.

"Two Taxes" Reform: The reform of personal income tax and the establishment of land tax are two major events in China's economic reform. In 2011, the lower limit of personal income tax collection will be raised and the tax rate will be lowered.Shanghai has become a pilot city for land tax. The scope of collection in 2011 only covered a small part of the country. Housing price controls: The Chinese government will step in to control real estate and accelerate the pace of building social housing.As the effect of regulation is not clear, the Chinese government will implement policies to further crack down on speculation.Inflation expectations complicate the real estate situation, and rising interest rates increase costs for investors in the sector. In 2011, the increase in housing prices was under control.

Regional Development Plans: Over the past two years, the Chinese government has implemented a series of regional socio-economic development plans.From a strategic point of view, the purpose of regional policy is to achieve multi-polar economic growth, support the development of remote areas, and at the same time improve public services.New developments are expected in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hebei Province, and western China. China's trade surplus has dropped significantly: From January to November 2010, China's trade surplus totaled 124 billion euros, lower than in 2008 and 2009. In 2011, China's central government proposed to stabilize domestic demand and increase imports, especially in high-tech and environmental protection fields. The trade surplus in 2011 will drop significantly.

Accelerate the development of emerging industries: In 2011, detailed plans for the development of emerging industries will be put into practice.Industries such as environmental protection, information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, electric vehicles and high-speed rail will become new drivers of economic growth.