Chapter 81 Epilogue Back to the fundamentals of history

Due to the natural and ultimate appeal of the Chinese nation for national unity, China has maintained a centralized political system for more than two thousand years, and there has never been another political system in history that can guarantee the maintenance of unity.It is also in this sense that China's tolerance for centralization is much higher than other countries.And this logic of state governance is obviously in conflict with the principles of free trade and market economy formed in the West after the Industrial Revolution. The reform of the liberalized market economy is bound to weaken the ability of the central government to centralize power. The two recent short-lived reform experiments of decentralization—namely, the early period of the Republic of China (1916-1927) and the early stage of reform and opening up (1978-1989), although they stimulated the private economy However, none of them have found a good way to maintain social stability.A particularly frightening scenario is that if the separation of powers gets out of control and independence incidents occur in some frontier areas, it will be a price that no reformer can bear.Therefore, we must rationally admit that "unified culture" is the boundary of all liberalization reforms.

This is a very painful conclusion, and perhaps our generation will not be able to find other choices in its entire life. Outsiders outside the Chinese nation cannot truly understand the difficulties involved.Neil Ferguson, a British historian known for his research on the political and economic history of currencies and empires, wrote in his book: "A more recent Western academic hypothesis is that China's long-term political unification has given the country's technology and Strategic development has brought about a suffocating effect." This seems to be the consensus of Western academic circles.However, such general conclusions are likely to lead the China issue to a simplistic, either-or conclusion.

The historical fact we have seen is that political unification once allowed China to lead the world in terms of civilization and economic growth for more than a thousand years.If it is said that the great unification has brought a "suffocating effect" to the country's technological and strategic development, then is this an inevitable logical derivation of the system, or is it the result of the inferior system?And if the answer is the latter, is there a possibility of benign transformation?The great rise of China's economy in the past thirty years has brought Ferguson's conclusions into a new paradoxical situation: this economic reform is the Chinese Communist Party, as a ruling group, breaking the myth of the planned economy ideology and using practical The process of rediscovering the development of the economy and stabilizing the political power model in the way of communism, under the framework of the great unification, China has achieved the longest sustainable growth in the world since the Industrial Revolution—except for China, no country has achieved economic growth It has been maintained at an average annual rate of 9% for 30 years.

Most Chinese people living in the 21st century already have a certain degree of modern consciousness, and their aversion to and opposition to autocracy has gradually become common sense in society.Today, the voices of the people calling for the promotion of the rule of law, the maintenance of judicial independence, and the strengthening of democratic supervision are increasing day by day, and policymakers are also constantly releasing positive information. Premier Li Keqiang said at the inauguration press conference that "it is harder to touch interests than to touch the soul", and promised to "govern the country according to the constitution" and "make clear rules prevail over unspoken rules."All these indicate that China's political governance may show signs of improvement to a certain extent in the future.

Still, it remains a curious question whether history will really "end" the way Samuel Huntington and Francis Fukuyama did.Many scholars who study the East Asian model have found that market-oriented authoritarian countries are definitely faster than democratic countries in the early stage of economic development.However, after the per capita GDP exceeds 3,000 US dollars, it may fall into the "middle income trap", and the conflict between the governance system and economic development becomes difficult to reconcile.China's per capita GDP reached US$3,400 in 2008, and it was after this that the conflicts between the four major interest groups became acute.Zheng Yongnian, a Singaporean scholar, put forward his own confusion in the book "China Model: Experience and Difficulties": "In the West, it was the economic development, the rise of the bourgeoisie and other social forces that finally tamed the autocratic state power, but in the In a developing society, the state (or government) must produce capitalism and promote economic development".Furthermore, the theoretical problem he raises is, “In the West, it is the growth of social power that tames state power. But when social and economic changes are driven by the state, who will tame state power?”

In the current East Asian countries and regions, the reform of the Philippines has failed, the reform of Singapore is full of controversy, the experience of South Korea is difficult to replicate, the reform of Vietnam is promising but the future is uncertain, and Taiwan has achieved democracy but its economy has stagnated.As a "superpower", China faces much greater difficulties than the above-mentioned countries and regions.In today's China, ultra-left populism and ultra-right liberalism hover over the sky like two giant dragons that may get out of control at any time, adding a lot of uncertainty to reform.Once China is in turmoil due to reform mistakes, the impact on East Asia and even the global economic and political structure is far from what it was a century ago. I am afraid that the world will not be prepared.

Activism of any kind is more like an accessory on a red lantern than the light itself in China.Therefore, a conservative conclusion is: in the foreseeable future, China's economic and political reforms are likely to be oriented towards free marketization, with the maintenance of a "unified culture" as the boundary, between democracy and the rule of law and centralized power. non-Western reforms to find a balance between them.Inherent problems are inherent, and it is necessary to find a "gene mutation" solution.The length of time for this change is likely to exceed the lifetime of our generation.