Chapter 80 Development and equity: the twin dilemmas of 2013

At the end of 2012, the "18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China" elected a new generation of central leadership with Xi Jinping as the general secretary.At this time, the reform has entered the thirty-fifth year, and the Chinese economy is like a sailboat sailing into a seemingly calm but undercurrent of the Grand Canyon. First, the "troika" has become lame, and economic growth has slowed down.Affected by the international environment, the foreign trade economy has always recovered sluggishly. The growth rate of foreign trade volume was only 5.7%. A large number of export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises went out of business and went bankrupt. Affected by it, heavy industries such as iron and steel, cement, and machinery and equipment have suffered losses; the central government has once again bet on investment since May 2012, increasing investment in infrastructure such as railways and urban rails.In 2012, the annual GDP growth rate was 7.8%, which was the lowest economic growth rate since 1999.

Second, the currency is seriously overissued, and inflationary pressure is enormous. Since 2003, China has entered a period of loose monetary policy. The average annual money issuance has been 2-3 times the GDP growth rate. 97.4 trillion yuan, surpassing the 8.8 trillion US dollars of the United States in one fell swoop, becoming the country with the largest currency issuance in the world, while China's GDP is only 52.5% of that of the United States. Third, the real economy continues to slump, and local governments are heavily indebted.Due to weak industrial transformation and dragged down by real estate regulation, the manufacturing industry in the middle and lower reaches of the industry is generally underutilized, and counties and cities that have always relied on land revenue are struggling financially. The total debt of local governments has increased from 1 trillion yuan in 2008 to 110,000 yuan. One hundred million yuan is unbearable.In order to meet the "hard target" of economic growth, local governments have to "drink poison to quench their thirst". On the one hand, they have stepped up taxation on the private sector, and on the other hand, they are still investing wildly.

In addition to the economic "development dilemma", a greater "equity crisis" occurs at the social level. Overall, the thirty-odd years of reform have been a process of inclusive benefits for the whole people. However, the proportion of beneficiaries is quite different. According to the data of many institutions, China's current Gini coefficient is close to 0.5, which means that the poor The wealth gap is widening and the distribution of wealth is extremely unfair. Therefore, in the intellectual circles, warnings against "crony capitalism" are heard endlessly, and among the people, there is a mentality of hatred for the rich and officials. China in 2013 seems to be becoming an "era of loss of consensus".Those familiar Deng's words are now being questioned, such as "let some people get rich first", "it doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice", "cross the river by feeling the stones", "development It’s the hard truth”, and so on.

Several principled concepts in the century-old modernization process have also been questioned unprecedentedly. China's modernization began with a huge historical tragedy, the invasion of great powers, the victory of the weak empire, as Li Hongzhang exclaimed - China is facing "a change unseen in three thousand years, a powerful enemy unseen in three thousand years", so a strong country becomes the strongest and even the only one the national consensus.Today, China's economic aggregate has surpassed that of Japan, and will surpass that of the United States in the next ten years or so. It can be said that it is not a big power.Therefore, in the minds of many citizens, a new question has arisen spontaneously: What does it matter to me if the country is prosperous and strong?If my country is the second or largest economy in the world, but I can’t afford a house, see a doctor, or go to school, my home will be forcibly demolished, and my children will drink poisoned milk powder. Where is the meaning?A strong country and the benefit of the people are interdependent propositions. When the latter is not achieved, the former will naturally be dim.

Today's China's four major interest groups have formed their own interest patterns, and they are all very powerful, with their own discourse power and interest judgment standards. However, there is a lack of consensus, multiple goals, and fairness—fairness between the government and the people, the central government and the local government. The fairness between the haves and the have-nots—become one of the most important social reform propositions that needs to be solved urgently. If we put 2013 into the "Three Gorges of History", what we see is a China that is both familiar and unfamiliar.