Chapter 18 "Macro-control" must not reach a new round of troughs

Why did the author of "China is about to collapse" say that China will collapse within five years and become an unmanageable mess, falling back into a situation similar to the warlord war after the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty; but you are confident and boldly predict: "After decades , China will develop very powerfully”? In December 1936, in order to sum up the experience of the second domestic revolutionary war, Mao Zedong wrote "Strategic Issues in China's Revolutionary War".He went straight to the point and said: "The law of war—this is a problem that anyone who guides a war must study and must solve. The law of revolutionary war—this is a question that anyone who guides a revolutionary war must study and must solve." The problem to be solved. The law of China’s revolutionary war—this is a problem that anyone who guides China’s revolutionary war must study and must solve.” Acting according to the law, Mao Zedong led the Chinese revolution to victory.Looking at China's reform and opening up and the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics with such a methodology, we should be able to find some internal laws, some more essential things, and even form a consensus close to the true nature of things.This consensus is that after more than 100 years of humiliation in modern times, we have finally seen the dawn of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on the horizon of the new century, the long-awaited great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.This sign is the socialist reform and opening up pioneered by Deng Xiaoping. Over the past 20 years, the average annual GDP growth rate has exceeded 9.5%, the economy has developed rapidly and continuously, and social productivity, overall national strength, and people's lives have all risen to a higher level. "Development is the last word", Deng Xiaoping's famous words resounded throughout China.When the international communist movement is at a low ebb and the world economy is in a long-term downturn, "the scenery here is unique."The Chinese have regained self-confidence and are proud of the creation, construction and development of socialism with Chinese characteristics.Now, under the leadership of the new generation of Party Central Committee with Hu Jintao as the general secretary, we are seizing the "strategic opportunity period" in the first 20 years of the new century and striving to build a well-off society in an all-round way.The people of the whole country felt infinitely encouraged and made great strides forward.The whole world is optimistic about China. In a certain sense, China has led the world economy to recover from the downturn.Except for a few people advocating the "China threat theory" and "China collapse theory", far-sighted scholars, entrepreneurs and politicians all over the world believe in and praise China's peaceful rise, and they all give their own convincing reasons It proves that China will continue to develop at a high speed for a long time along the path of peaceful rise and development.Of course, everything is divided into two, and many new problems continue to emerge on the way forward. There is nothing terrible about this.The world today is undergoing extensive and profound changes, and contemporary China is undergoing extensive and profound changes.The opportunities are unprecedented, and the challenges are also unprecedented. The opportunities outweigh the challenges.

It seems that you have no market for pessimists, but you are not Pollyanna.The growth rate of investment continues to run at a high level, the pressure of rising prices is increasing, and the surplus in export and foreign trade is too large, all of which have also attracted your attention.Your criticism of "overheating economic growth" is also very severe. The so-called "economic overheating" is nothing more than the growth of social investment in fixed assets.If investing 1 yuan can return 2 yuan or more, then the investment growth should be as much as possible, and the economy will develop more sustainably and at a high speed. What's wrong with that?The problem now is that some experts and scholars have calculated that China's investment is to invest 5 yuan to get back 1 yuan.This is troublesome.Investment never returns, is this just "overheating"? "Overheating" is just a phenomenon, and the lack of benefit is the key.How can the investment be ineffective?There are at least three situations:

One is that investment does not produce benefits.For example, a total of 6,015 development zones have been built across the country, with a total area of ​​35,400 square kilometers. This is probably an astonishing record in the history of world economic development!Especially in the western development, thousands of development zones, industrial parks, science parks, etc. have sprung up all at once, not only in cities and counties, but also in many townships.A large amount of farmland has been requisitioned, and it has cost a lot of investment to get through several levels, but who will invest in your remote and remote place without market regulations?A few years of neglect, how can benefit?Now that it has been rectified and half of it has been closed, this half must be the investment that will never be returned.What about 3000 more?Another example is the development of the western region, with an investment of hundreds of billions, but the method is still the old method of the planned economy: the central government puts a hat on it.The central government will invest half of it, and the other half will be raised by local governments.As a result, half of the construction was completed with central funds, and the local self-raised funds could not keep up, so they had to wait for the central government to give them more money.Some also faded.

The second is low return on investment, such as "image projects" and "performance projects" in some cities, counties and towns.According to statistics, one fifth of the more than 20,000 cities and towns across the country are engaged in these two major projects.It is not necessarily wrong to want political achievements and image. The problem lies in the fact that one is overjoyed for success, regardless of benefits, and some even reach the level of evil.According to the newspaper, the population of a small city is more than 50,000, and a large square can stand 60,000 people. I don't know what kind of image it is?There is also a city in the western region that wants to build a highway known as "the world's first". Not to mention the two five-lane lanes on the left and right, a five-lane wide green belt will be built on both sides and in the middle of the lane. The total length is only under its municipal jurisdiction. With a range of more than 20 kilometers, it is really a wonder in the world.But there are not many cars running on it, and the cost will not be recovered in 10,000 years.

As another example, revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China is a major strategic decision.Since the reform and opening up, the central government has invested several hundred billion yuan in the Northeast. It cannot be said that it is small, and it cannot be said that it has not achieved some benefits. However, if it does not completely change the concept, reform the system, establish a market economy concept, and act in accordance with the market economic mechanism, it will invest hundreds of billions more , How can we guarantee that we will not "revitalize" again in a few years!

The third is a large number of repetitive construction of production projects.The market is so big, those who invest first may have greater benefits, and then a large number of investors rush in blindly, and it is bound to be of no benefit to everyone.Now, we have to ask: Who would do this kind of loss-making business?A market economy would not do such stupid things.A private enterprise of a limited company will never do this kind of loss-making business.Under a standardized market economic system, competition among enterprises is parallel.The first enterprise has huge profits, and the second and third enterprises must quickly catch up. After reaching eight or ten enterprises, there will only be average profits. I refused to do it easily, because I couldn't compete with mature companies and share profits.When it becomes unprofitable, or even at a loss, the enterprise will never repeat construction.This is especially true for private enterprises, because they cannot afford to lose money.Of course, the market is also blind, and private enterprises also make mistakes in decision-making, resulting in losses and bankruptcy.There are many small enterprises in this situation, but some large enterprises are rare.Unless China's market economy is not yet standardized, some private enterprises invest under the government's political encouragement, promises of additional benefits, or even administrative pressure, that's another story.In short, under a standardized market economy, repeated construction is generally limited repetition.This kind of repetition is even necessary, which can not only meet the market demand in time, but also facilitate the innovation of technology and management.At the same time, if there are signs of unprofitability, the market and enterprises will have an internal mechanism for timely and automatic adjustment.Even if they lose money and go bankrupt, it is only the responsibility of the private enterprises themselves, which will not affect the overall situation of the country.

However, a planned economy and government behavior are completely different.The competition among governments at all levels is triangular, and will be enlarged step by step.The government is an organ of political power, and political interests are higher than economic interests. Economic development is also related to the consolidation of political power to a large extent.What is spent is the money of the country and taxpayers, and what is obtained is their own political interests. Therefore, "image projects" and "performance projects" are inevitable.As long as there are political achievements and promotions, whether they are effective or not is a matter for the successor.The successor is not very concerned about whether the predecessor's performance projects produce benefits. What he cares about is how to establish new achievements.Fortunately, the country is an unlimited company. As long as the country does not collapse, spend as much money as you can.As long as you win a piece of the national plan, you won't spend it in vain.Sometimes, the plan cannot be completed, and you are urged to spend it.This is the inevitable internal mechanism of the planned economy and the direct management of the economy and enterprises by governments at all levels.Although the central government has repeatedly ordered to "govern for the people" and to have an "overall concept," the spiritual power of the idea is by no means equal to the material power of the mechanism.So, who did the foolish thing of investing in nothing?Only the government under the planned economy system.Even if the government has no money, it has the right to make loans from state-owned banks without being responsible for possible bad debts.How could the bank do this kind of business with no return?Because, at this stage, the presidents of China's state-owned banks are also officials, and political interests also come first.Therefore, the overheating of China's economy is due to the overheating of some local governments, the overheating of the planned economic system, and the overheating of regions and departments that are deeply shadowed by the old planned economic system.In other words, don't large local projects have to be approved by the relevant central government departments?First of all, small quotas are not reviewed, and a small amount will become a lot; there are policies at the top and countermeasures at the bottom. The government below divides large projects into two or three projects with small quotas and submits them for approval; more importantly, tens of thousands of projects across the country are submitted to the central government. Approval, how many people does the central department need to take care of this matter?

A director is in charge of dozens or hundreds of projects. Can he ensure that the approval of each project is scientific and reasonable?What's more, the subordinates go through the back door of the leadership and send "gifts" to the director. The corruption of various "power-for-money transactions" is naturally inevitable, and it even becomes a mechanism, the so-called "running (department) to get money".If the examination and approval power of the central department is not supervised and restricted, it will not only lead to blind examination and approval and system corruption, but also cannot control such "overheating" at all.

An economist analyzed China's economic development and investment curves over the years and found a "three-eight rule", that is, every year that ends in 3 or 8, the economy and investment must be overheated.Because it happened in the first year that the government at all levels changed, and the new government was eager to make new achievements, invest heavily, and start projects aggressively. Why is it not overheated?That being the case, what about the Chinese economy? "Macro-control" requires both overall regulation and administrative intervention.For the market economy, the overall economic levers should be used for regulation and control, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and reserves; for the planned economy, administrative intervention should be used, and the two should not be misplaced or offside.All overheated projects in the planned economy and government actions should be cooled down by the central government with "iron fist" administrative measures, and this is the only way to cool them down.And using this method, due to the triangular magnification mechanism, it will definitely achieve the most effective effect.However, administrative measures must not overstep, intervene in the market economy, intervene in the market behavior of private enterprises, and cannot intervene in the overall regulation of the central bank.The central bank's overall regulation should be fine-tuned in a timely manner.Also, the government should not intervene in the market behavior of commercial banks.Commercial banks should always proceed from their own interests and support high-efficiency enterprises and their investment projects.In this regard, what the government can and must do is to monitor and stop corruption that may occur in regulatory actions.In short, we sincerely hope that "macro-control" must not reach a new round of troughs, but should enable China's economy to achieve further healthy, rapid and sustainable development.This is a practical test of whether the "macro-control" is correct or not.