Chapter 52 7. Looking forward to 2020: a society of consumption

Only when the people consume with the currency in their hands will wealth begin to move within the national economic system, and only this movement of wealth can promote the expansion of reproduction in various industries in society, thereby creating a new round of economic development. Circulation allows the huge system of the national economy to continue to run forever. Topic Introduction: Solutions to Difficulties - The Next Decade of Consumption From 48.8% to 38.2%, from 38.9% to 47.9%. Looking at the data alone, such a change is meaningless, but when we understand what these four numbers represent, it will inevitably trigger a new round of thinking.

The change represented by the former is the consumption rate of residents from 1991 to 2005, while the change represented by the latter is the savings rate of residents from 2001 to 2005. From the changes in the numbers, we can see that more and more Chinese residents are choosing to store their money in banks instead of spending it in the market. For a country, such a change undoubtedly means a dilemma in circulation. Only when the people consume with the currency in their hands will wealth begin to move within the national economic system, and only this movement of wealth can promote the expansion of reproduction in various industries in society, thereby creating a new round of economic development. Circulation allows the huge system of the national economy to continue to run forever.

In fact, when the country's economic circulation is in trouble, consumption highlights its unique value.And only when faced with low ebb and difficulties, will the historical experience be re-examined. In the history of China, the earliest school of consumerism came from Yang Zhu in the Warring States Period. If this concept only focuses on the sensory needs of individuals, then when national economic managers try to amplify this concept and apply it to the level of macroeconomic regulation, its effectiveness is immeasurable. In the ideological work "Guanzi" in the pre-Qin period, there is also the view of consumerism, and its core content is that the role of consumption in increasing employment, disaster relief, activating the market and developing the economy is obvious.

In this book, one of the most interesting viewpoints is the so-called "carve eggs and then burn them, and carve them and then burn them", which means that before cooking eggs and burning firewood, first hire carvers and painters to carve eggs and firewood. Sculpture and painting, use this method to add links in the industrial chain, increase people's employment, and thus increase consumption. Coincidentally, today, two thousand years later, this seemingly ridiculous point of view reappears in mainstream Western economic discourses. The reason lies in the rationality of this point of view, just as a Western economist said As suggested, in order to increase social employment, the country may even put banknotes in bottles, bury them in abandoned coal mines, and then hire people to dig them out.

From the perspective of the country's macro economy, when the total output of the society greatly exceeds the total demand of the society, it means that the problem of overcapacity already exists. At this time, the state will come forward to promote consumerism, which can expand employment. , Increase production, activate the market and promote the multiple meanings of the economy. In fact, the reason for the consumption peak in the United States in the 1950s was based on the overcapacity after World War II. By stimulating and expanding people's consumption, the government made up the difference between the total social demand and the total social supply, thereby overcoming the serious problem. The unemployment crisis allowed a large number of veterans to be employed, thereby getting rid of the plight of the economic depression, which not only promoted economic growth, but also maintained the stability of social order.

From our previous analysis, we can get an obvious fact. As small as a region or as large as a country, when there is a relatively high level of consumption, it will inevitably bring about prosperous and developed industries of all kinds, which will also provide more employment opportunities for the society, and full employment It is of extraordinary significance to the lives of ordinary people. Conversely, if the consumption in a region is sluggish, then its related industries will inevitably fail to develop. Under the current situation where various industries are increasingly interconnected, it will bring about a series of negative effects, and the lives of its people will inevitably be difficult. .

Therefore, we have come to the relationship between consumption and economic development here. When the people advocate consumption and are willing to take out their savings currency to trade in the market, it will not only harm the society, but will also have a strong impact on economic development. Powerful impetus. So, we are now facing a problem that needs to be solved urgently: Among China's 1.3 billion people, where is the real source of consumption? A well-known common sense is that the main factor that determines consumption power is income.Therefore, as far as China is concerned at present, the group with the most consumption power is the wealthy class in coastal areas and first-tier cities.

We might as well make this assumption. If some wealthy people are allowed to consume first, what kind of changes will it bring? As far as China is concerned, with its huge population base, it will inevitably be able to differentiate a considerable number of "strong consumer groups". With the consumption power of this part of the people, it can fully compensate for the negative impact brought about by the economic recession in developed countries. When the missing market demand is made up, it means that production gets a new impetus. When production continues, the employment problem of low-income people is solved, and the wage income they rely on for their livelihood is also reduced. It will increase accordingly. Simply put, only when ordinary people feel optimistic about their future life will they temporarily bury their sense of anxiety, and instead spend their savings and income on consumption, and then join the consumption force. .

In fact, as early as 30 years ago, we had put forward the slogan "Let some people get rich first", and with the verification of history, the correctness of this slogan has been proved, then, as time goes by, our And why not change the form and content of this slogan so that in the next ten years, the group of people who get rich will consume first, and the consumption of this part of people will be converted into the income of low-income people, and finally realize the prosperity of all people. The enhancement of national consumption capacity creates a society of comprehensive consumption.