Chapter 11 Introduction Is it possible for us to surpass the United States?

In the introduction to the second article, I have already explained how to catch up with the United States economically, that is, the per capita GDP and virtual industries must be evenly matched with the United States.Then, surpassing the United States means being stronger than the United States in these aspects.However, I want to change the statement a little bit here, and divide China's surpassing of the United States into "primary surpassing" and "advanced surpassing". Primary transcendence means that China has surpassed the United States in per capita GDP, and people generally live a life richer than Americans; what about advanced transcendence?Even if the original condition is added, not only the per capita GDP must surpass and catch up, but also virtual industries such as finance, entertainment, branding, and patented technology must be evenly matched with the United States.

In the first two chapters of this article, we first discussed the possibility of China’s primary surpassing of the United States. I will tell you that as long as China prints money for shopping by itself, instead of letting Americans “help” us print money for shopping, Then it will not be difficult for China to surpass the United States at the beginning. It is an exaggeration to say that it can even surpass the United States overnight. First of all, the United States is a shell economy that prints money for shopping. Once China no longer allows the United States to print money for shopping, China will instead print money for shopping to digest its own excess production capacity (that is, those production capacities that must be absorbed by exports now), Then the United States will become a country where most industrial products are scarce overnight, and countless daily necessities such as clothing, home appliances, bicycles, stereos, etc. will be scarce.

Fortunately, the United States can be self-sufficient in agricultural products (and has a large surplus for export), so the United States can first maintain food and clothing; Secondly, although the United States can no longer print money for shopping from China, it can still print money for shopping from other countries, and can rely on finance, service industries, brands, patents, and Hollywood movies in exchange for some industrial products from all over the world. But in any case, since Chinese products account for a huge proportion of American consumption, without Chinese products, the affluence of Americans will definitely be reduced by more than half, and basically the United States will become a moderately developed country in the short term. .

But then the United States will be forced to restore its manufacturing industry and start producing general products again. Slowly, Americans' prosperity will recover. This is a good opportunity for China to catch up with the United States. If the United States loses Chinese products, it will take several years for the United States to toss (restore manufacturing), but China has developed at a very high speed during this period.As for how fast China can develop after printing its own money for consumption, I will explain in detail in the following chapters. The last chapter further talks about how China can surpass the United States at a high level. This may be more difficult. It is difficult for China to surpass the United States in a short period of time (within 50 years) in terms of cultural soft power, technological capabilities, and brands.Especially in terms of scientific and technological innovation, it is difficult to see any prospect of surpassing the United States based on the current scientific research status of China.As for the brand, it itself is divided into two types: one depends on technology, and the other depends on cultural influence.

The vast majority of Japanese brands are based on technology, while European and American brands, in addition to technology brands, also have a large number of virtual brands built on the basis of cultural potential (the high-pressure advantage of Western mainstream culture over weak cultures) ( For example, there are numerous international clothing brands, symbolic luxury goods, etc.). How many years will it take for China's economy to surpass that of the United States? If it is a comprehensive transcendence (advanced transcendence), I still have to go back to my thesis at the beginning of this book, and I am afraid it will take centuries.

How many hundreds of years will it take? I will give you the most optimistic estimate, assuming that China is lucky to be on par with the United States in technology within 50 years. The speed of scientific and technological innovation is almost the same.In other words, you regard China as Japan in 1950, and from today onwards, it will be able to innovate in science and technology as Japan did back then for 50 years, and achieve comparable results to Japan.Then 50 years later, relying on science and technology, China can first create a series of real world brands. For example, the quality and technical level of our home appliances, automobiles, airplanes, etc. are all leading in the world, and China will immediately become Today's Japan is equivalent to Japan's status in today's world economy.

Next, if China wants to become the United States today, it will still be a protracted battle. Because, although China has surpassed the United States in technology, it will be a long process to promote soft power so that it is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people all over the world, so that the east wind can completely overwhelm the west wind. The influence of Western culture can be said to have penetrated into the bones of people all over the world. If you want to change it and let Chinese culture replace it, it is tantamount to changing their blood. This is extremely difficult.Perhaps, we have to wait for the living generations to die of old age, and the newly born talents may fade the imprint of Western culture, and then Chinese culture may drive forward.

Furthermore, the European and American countries themselves will resist stubbornly and continue to stick to their soft power fortresses around the world to obstruct the advancement of China's soft power around the world. However, compared with the 19th and 20th centuries when Western countries promoted their soft power in our era, we also have more conveniences. One is that the degree of communication in the world is far greater than that of that era. The speed of things is also far faster than that era. Three things are well-developed in the contemporary world. The Internet and other media can promote Chinese culture extremely efficiently and quickly. This is the most critical point.

It took the West two hundred years to promote their culture and become the mainstream. Let us use the most optimistic estimate. If China's soft power finally begins to dominate the world after two generations of death, it will take another 50 years. . According to the most optimistic estimate, it will take another 100 years for China to overtake the United States.Of course, if China suddenly leads a scientific and technological revolution within 20 years, it will not be a problem for China to completely surpass the United States within 50 years. Such a small probability event is meaningless.