Chapter 50 "Unification" is the name, "separation" is the reality

On July 7, 2001, the Kuomintang announced the "Confederacy" post of the draft policy program, defining the KMT's mainland policy as follows: follow the national unification program, on the basis of the 1992 Consensus of "One China, each expressing itself", and pursue cross-strait Peaceful and stable relations, and under the premise of giving priority to Taiwan, promote a staged "confederation" to move towards reunification.In his new book "New Blueprint, New Momentum - Lien Chan's Advocacy", Chairman of the Kuomintang, Lien Chan also proposed for the first time the direction of cross-strait integration in the future. Man opens a "window of opportunity".

According to Lien Chan, cross-strait relations are a matter of right and wrong, as well as a matter of war and peace. Those in power cannot hide and dodge forever, and must assume leadership responsibilities.He emphasized that a peaceful and constructive cross-strait relationship is not only beneficial to Taiwan and the mainland, but can also make a significant contribution to the prosperity of the international community, especially the region. Lien Chan also proposed that to break through the current deadlock between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we must adhere to "one ideal", recognize "two realities", and follow "three tracks".The so-called "one ideal" means: the highest goal of the mainland policy of the "Republic of China" is to pursue China's ultimate unification under the premise of democracy, freedom, and equal prosperity, and the future direction of cross-strait integration, "confederation" is worth considering concept, because it can not only maintain the direction of cross-strait reunification, but also retain the space for the two sides to cooperate and develop under their respective systems; the so-called "two realities" refer to equality and democracy in cross-strait relations; the so-called "three tracks" refer to peaceful , development, exchange.

In Lien Chan's view, the future cross-strait relations should present such a picture: "Chinese do not fight Chinese", let the world see a Taiwan Strait without cannons and wars; "Chinese help Chinese", let the world see Goodwill exchanges and cooperation between the two sides, sincere mutual trust and mutual benefit, in order to achieve a win-win situation and then form a win-win situation with the Asia-Pacific region. As soon as the "Confederation" post was published, it aroused the attention of the world public opinion.After all, the Kuomintang, which has been in dispute with the DPP over the issue of unification and independence, has put forward a blueprint for "unification" that can be discussed, expressing its ideal of "unification", which is completely different from the DPP.

As an expert on the Taiwan issue in China, Yu Keli's stance on this issue is quite moderate.He affirmed the Kuomintang's promotion of cross-strait reunification and understood the "good intentions" of the Kuomintang.He saw that the Kuomintang proposed "confederalism" because of its practical considerations, because the Kuomintang opposes "Taiwan independence", but under the current situation of "Taiwan independence" forces on the island with arrogance, based on the reality of the election, they dare not directly declare reunification , "Confederacy" can be said to be a "compromise" under political pressure.He believes that Lien Chan's "confederation" differs from the internationally recognized "confederation" in two respects. One is that the KMT emphasizes that this is a "transitional stage," and the other is that "it will eventually lead to unification."

The idea of ​​"Theory of Confederation" was first proposed in August 1999 by Su Qihe, the organizing committee member of the "Mainland Affairs Committee" and Zhang Ronggong, director of the Mainland Affairs Department of the Kuomintang.However, Lien Chan did not propose a confederal system at the last moment of Taiwan's leader election, mainly because he was worried about intensifying the contradiction between unification and independence. Soon after the Kuomintang’s “Confederation Talk” was announced, the Kuomintang planned to include the “Confederacy” in its policy program as the first step in concretely promoting the “Len Chan Line” after Lien Chan became the party chairman, which was different from Lee Teng-hui’s mainland policy.However, Yu Keli advises Lien Chan not to include "confederalism" in the party platform, because it may be like the DPP's inclusion of "Taiwan independence" in the party platform, and it is easy to be passive and inflexible in cross-strait exchanges and handling of cross-strait policies in the future , There may be sequelae, and it may not necessarily be helpful to cross-strait reunification, and the current cross-strait reunification model is still in the discussion stage, and the Kuomintang should conduct in-depth discussions first.

Yu Keli's mild remarks on "Lian Chan Shuotie" caused some misunderstandings overseas, thinking that the mainland may agree that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may be united by a "confederal system".Yu Keli told the world frankly: the reunification of the two sides of the strait, the confederation is not advisable. The state structure forms in the world today can basically be divided into two categories: unitary system and federal system.A unitary system is a single sovereign state structure formed by several administrative regions; a federal system is a state structure formed by a union of several relatively independent regions as member units.The difference between the two is very obvious: First, in a unitary state, the local government is established by the central government; in a federal state, the federal government is established by agreement among member units, and each member unit often exists before the federal government ;Secondly, in a unitary state, the power of the local government is granted by the central government. The central government can unilaterally stipulate the authority of the local government. The local government must obey the highest state power represented by the central government. In a federal state, the federal government The division of power between federal member governments is clearly regulated by the federal constitution, and neither party can unilaterally change it arbitrarily. Amendments to the constitution must be agreed and approved by both parties; third, in unitary countries, the central government can change Boundaries. In a federal state, the federal government cannot arbitrarily change the boundaries of each member unit.

A less common form of state structure outside of these two forms is confederation.It is a national union established by several countries each retaining independent sovereignty. Both the federal system and the confederal system belong to the composite system. The main differences between the two are: First, the member units of the federal system do not have independent sovereignty and do not have the status of a country; while the member units of the confederation are still independent sovereign states.Second, under the federal system, the federal constitution and laws are the supreme law of the country. The federal central government has the highest state power and can directly exercise power over the people of each member unit; under the confederal system, although there are also member states The central authority, composed of sent representatives, exercises certain powers according to the express entrustment of the member states, but its decisions are consultative and binding only after the approval of all member governments.The third is that the people of the member states of the confederation do not have a common nationality; the people of the member units in the federal state have a unified nationality.Fourth, the Confederacy is not the subject of international law; the Federation is the subject of international law.It can be seen that the confederal system obviously violates the "one China" principle.Yu Keli said that the confederation is the union of two or more sovereign states, and it is not a unified country in essence.How can Taiwan, as a country, sign an agreement with the main body of China to form a loose union of countries? "This is not unity, but division."

Officials of the central government who are in charge of dealing with Taiwan also declared their opposition to confederacy in interviews with reporters.Because, first, it does not conform to the historical tradition of our country.Since the Qin and Han Dynasties, my country has always implemented a unitary state structure.Second, it does not conform to the basic national conditions of our country and is not conducive to national unity, ethnic unity, political stability, and regional coordination.Taiwan has always been a province of our country. If Taiwan is regarded as a unit and the mainland of the motherland is regarded as a unit, and a "federal system" is implemented, it will easily lead to new contradictions and leave hidden dangers.This unification model is not a good solution to the Taiwan issue.He pointed out that "one country, two systems" is still the best model for cross-strait unification.Later, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Zhang Qiyue, formally rejected the "confederation" at a regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which verified Yu Keli's judgment.

Overseas analysts believe that it is too much to say that Yu Keli has a considerable right to speak on the Taiwan issue, but it is appropriate to say that he has considerable influence on decision-makers.He is not only the No. 2 figure in the Taiwan Research Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences, but also serves as a director of the China Association for the Promotion of Peaceful Reunification, a director of the China Asia-Pacific Society, and a director of the National Taiwan Research Association. He is also influential on the Taiwan issue. Xu Shiquan, Like Li Jiaquan, Xin Qi, and Li Yafei, they have become heavyweights in the research team on the Taiwan issue in mainland China.