Chapter 2 Preface 2 How to deal with the supply revolution?

On the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, Yu Dong completed a book. As an old friend who worked together and knew each other deeply, I am very happy for him.The book is rich in content, grand in composition, and profound in thought, especially summarizing the Chinese economy in a time span of more than 2,000 years!And predict the development of the next 40 years, so far these are the first time. The high-level dynamic equilibrium trap is an insurmountable gap for China in the era of agricultural economy.China has prospered during the 5,000-year-long agricultural economy era, with population growth, technological development, and splendid culture.But at the same time, as this book puts forward, although the total GDP ranks among the highest in the world, the high birth rate and high technological improvement capabilities cancel each other out, the per capita GDP has stagnated for a long time, and the economic development is in a high-level dynamic equilibrium trap.With the outbreak of the industrial revolution and the advent of the industrial economy era, the glory created by the Chinese economy in the agricultural economy era was quickly overwhelmed.The Chinese economy failed to achieve effective transformation and missed the development opportunities brought by the industrial revolution. As a result, the powerful economy gradually declined and eventually became a semi-feudal and semi-colonial country.Summarizing the history of China from glory to decline in the past, it can be clearly seen that the main reason is the seclusion of the country. The self-enclosed empire has always been intoxicated by the achievements and glory of the agricultural economy era. It does not know that the productivity revolution will completely change the fundamentals of the human economy. model.In the context of a new era, all past achievements may be so insignificant and vulnerable.

Focusing on the present age, the long-term downturn of the Japanese economy is the same. The underlying reason is that China made the same mistakes as China in the agricultural economy era. Although the reasons and results of the mistakes may be different from those in China in that era, there is one point What is certain is that clinging to yesterday's glory and dreams will definitely be abandoned by the productivity revolution.It should be said that it is a painful and arduous process for a country to achieve an effective economic transition, during which not only economic fluctuations and labor pains, but also the cooperation of innovative culture and economic systems and mechanisms are needed. Progress also carries huge risks, so without the flexibility and adaptability of the economic system, this kind of leap may not be realized at all, which can also explain the difficulties encountered by modern China and contemporary Japan.

Since its birth, economics has become a prominent discipline in today's society because of its strong practical guiding significance, but realistically speaking, economics still needs a long period of development from a historical perspective.For example, long-term economic growth has always been an eternal theme of economics.Numerous masters of economics have made arduous explorations in this area and made great achievements, which have raised the level of human cognition again and again. Unfortunately, the current world financial crisis and economic recession have shown that our long-term growth The understanding is far from enough, especially so far we still have a lot of work to do in terms of supply research. The good news is that in this book, the author builds on his book "Learning Economics" published in 2002. It has been enriched and improved, and a "vertical but jumping aggregate supply model" is proposed. I think this theory gives a more reasonable explanation for aggregate supply from the height of the human productivity revolution and the change trajectory of the economic era.

In an economic era, the total supply is vertical in the long run, and in the next economic era!The total supply is also vertical and parallel to the total supply of the previous era, but there is a distance between the two due to the productivity revolution. This distance is a qualitative difference and strictly distinguishes the development levels of productivity in the two economic eras. At the same time, the two eras are incomparable, and the next era has insurmountable advantages over the previous era.From the perspective of human history, the era of agricultural economy first appeared. In this era, human beings got rid of the hunting life of ruthless hair and blood, and entered a period of relatively stable and rapid development. Human beings defeated nature and the natural world because of agricultural civilization. All life other than human beings.It will be followed by the era of industrial economy and the era of information economy that has emerged, that is, the economic era we are in now, and then the era of bio-economy may follow.The economic welfare of mankind is constantly challenging new heights in response to the challenge of this supply transition.Accompanied by major theoretical breakthroughs and technological revolutions, new industries and new economic models that may not have been imagined have been born.This process may continue forever. Although the time interval between each era is different, the advent of each era will have a major and far-reaching impact on human society. A country may be an economic giant in an era, but it cannot Guaranteed to remain so in the next era.In the face of the productivity revolution, any economy has equal opportunities. Whoever can seize the opportunity will catch up from behind, and those who cannot grasp the opportunity will stagnate and sink.

Looking forward to the future of China, the author gives a rational prediction based on a large amount of data and rigorous arguments. The development of China in the future is China Dream 3.0. In the process of realizing this dream, there will be various unexpected problems, full of hardships and challenges. At the same time, the author also gives a package solution.We are honored to be a witness and a participant of China Dream 3.0.Let's look forward to it. It is for sequence.