In the atmosphere of "the rise of great powers", forecasting the long-term performance of China's economy has become a "distinguished science". In May 2009, when Dr. Yao Yudong’s new book was entering its final draft, Professor Li Daokui, director of the Center for China and World Economy Research at Tsinghua University, calculated that China’s economy would surpass Japan’s by the end of 2009, ranking No. world number two.This piece of news was very beautiful, and it immediately appeared in the eye-catching positions of major media, adding a touch of joy to this sluggish early summer.

Seeing Professor Li’s prediction, I immediately thought of another prediction given by Dr. Yao in this book: China’s total GDP will surpass that of the United States in 2029, and by 2049—that is, the 100th anniversary of New China, 3 times that of the United States!His calculation premise is: China's economy maintains a growth rate of 7% until 2029, and maintains a growth rate of 3% from 2029 to 2049; the United States maintains a growth rate of 2%; and the inflation rate of both China and the United States remains at 2%. ; By 2049, China's population will be 1.4 billion, compared with 450 million in the United States.

Readers of this book, if you are around 50 years old, almost all of you can see the arrival of 2029, and most of you should be able to survive until 2049.This means that since the British Industrial Revolution in 1750, China, which has been struggling to catch up and was once regarded as the "sick man of East Asia", will once again return to the throne of the world's largest economic power.And we will be witnesses. The subtitle of Dr. Yao's book is "Chinese Economy: AD 1-2049".This is the first time that the academic circle has analyzed the Chinese economy at the economic level with a span of 2000.Prior to this, European economist Angus Maddison published "The Long-term Performance of the Chinese Economy: AD 960-2030".Of course, Dr. Yao's academic contribution is not just a calculation problem.In fact, in this book, he discusses a more in-depth topic with an extremely rigorous and serious attitude: what method and strategy will we use to achieve the goal of catching up and surpassing.Simply put, how can China maintain a growth rate of 7% in the next 20 years, and maintain a growth rate of 3% in the next 20 years?

Behind this question, there is actually a tragic "catch-up" past. In the spring of 1958, Mao Zedong went to Moscow, the Soviet Union for a meeting. During the meeting, he talked with the leaders of the British Communist Party, Portland and Golan, and learned that in another 15 years, the steel production in the UK could increase from 20 million tons to 30 million tons.He went back and calculated an account by himself, thinking that China will reach 40 million tons in another 15 years.Therefore, at the representative meeting of the Communist Party and the Workers’ Party of various countries a few days later, he publicly stated that China’s steel output in 1958 was 5.2 million tons, and in another five years, it could reach 10 million to 15 million tons of steel output. It can reach 35 million to 40 million tons of steel output.

From then on, China put forward the national strategy of "surpassing Britain and catching up with the United States".For this reason, China launched the "Great Leap Forward". In June 1958, Mao Zedong, feeling that the situation was going well, greatly shortened the time for catching up with Britain, and proposed that "it will not take 15 years or 7 years to catch up with Britain, but only 2 to 3 years." , two years is possible.” The consequences of this catch-up movement, as everyone now knows, was a farce of the whole people selling iron and steel, followed by the three-year famine from 1959 to 1961, and later, the “Cultural Revolution” occurred. ".

Is there a possible and terrifying logic of the same path between the "overtaking the UK and catching up with the US" in the 1950s and the "overtaking Japan and catching up with the US" in the first decade of the 21st century? This is obviously not groundless worry. In the past 60 years, China's economic reform has actually tried two roads: one is the nationalized industrialization road, with state-owned capital as the main force driving the national economy; the other is to further accelerate market-oriented reforms, with diversified capital The pattern promotes the prosperity of the economy.

We tried the previous way before 1978.Angus Maddison provided a set of data. He calculated the per capita GDP growth rates of Asian countries between 1952 and 1978, and found that China lagged behind as a whole compared with other countries and regions.China's per capita GDP growth rate is 2.3%, while Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan are 6.7%, 6.3%, 4.8%, 5.4%, and 6.6%, respectively.In 1960, China's GNP was 145.7 billion yuan, comparable to that of Japan.By 1977, China's economic size was less than 1/3 of Japan's and only 1/10 of that of the United States.The latter path has been tried in the past 30 years.Still using Madison’s data, from 1978 to 2003, China’s per capita GDP growth rate reached 6.6%, while those in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were 2.1%, 6.3%, 4.8%, 3.9%, and 4.7%, respectively. %.Arranging these boring data one by one is to express such a point of view: China's economic reform can no longer deviate from the path of marketization.The ultimate goal of marketization is that the wealth of the people is greater than the strength of the country.

"The country is strong and the people rich" is an idiom that is often linked together, but in fact, a strong country does not necessarily mean that the people are rich, such as Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union in the 1930s; of the Nordic countries.This truth, many people may not understand.In the next 20 or even 40 years, the theme of China's transformation should be how to transform from a strong country to a prosperous people, and how to enable all people to enjoy the benefits of social progress. Only on the premise that the whole people are getting richer and more harmonious, "surpassing the sun and catching up with the United States" is meaningful.Otherwise, it may be another GDP "Great Leap Forward".

Looking back at the commercial evolution of China over the past century, the internal logic of history has not been interrupted by the change of dynasty. So many stories with similar plots are staged again and again like remakes of TV dramas. Different directors, different actors, and the same script for a hundred years. His lines are copied and reincarnated from generation to generation like the genetic information in genes.If we look a little farther away, in the past 2,000 years, China is the only major country in the world that has maintained a centralized system for a long time.The obsession with authority is still a historical issue that the whole people needs to be vigilant about and urgently to be cracked.The experience of countries around the world tells us that the greed for power is indeed the greatest enemy of mankind. Without institutional constraints, it seems that no nation or regime in the world can consciously control itself and avoid moral and economic constraints. destroy.

Do we need to "surpass the sun and catch up with the United States"?It is a matter of national courage. How will we "surpass the sun and catch up with the United States"?This is a question of public wisdom. Dr. Yao Yudong graduated from the University of Cambridge. He has served in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and now works in the provincial government.He is a rare young talent with an international vision, full of ambition to help the world, and considerable research skills in the academic world.This book is not only a "prophecy book" for the rise of a great power, but also a "wake-up call" for promoting change.

China's progress has a long way to go.I and other scholars, using the pen as a sword, walk against the wind and rain in the dark, and go hand in hand, which is also a happy thing. It is for sequence.