Chapter 16 Chapter 16 From Today, You Are a Strategist

On July 21, 1956, at the meeting of directors of commerce and agricultural product procurement departments and directors of supply and marketing cooperatives in provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, Chen Yun said: Among the old businessmen, there was a kind of people who "wear melon skin hats and hold hookahs in their hands". Specially consider strategic issues, such as what is out of stock and when to buy what.The manager of our current store is very busy all day, and has to settle accounts until 12 o'clock at night. I think there should be people who "pace around" to consider strategic issues.Chen Yun reminded people that if there is no such "melon skin hat" person who considers strategic issues, it is easy to get stuck in trivial matters and even lose the way forward when faced with complicated and difficult tasks.

In fact, the reason why Chen Yun appreciates those who "wear melon skin hats and hold hookahs" and are good at "walking around" is because he believes that the leaders of cooperatives lack high-level strategic capital, lack of specific strategic vision, specific strategic height and A specific strategic perspective lacks the foresight of "the wise see ahead of time, and the wise avoid danger from the invisible".It lacks the overall vision of "not afraid of floating clouds, only because you are at the highest level", the overall grasp of the overall situation, and the deep vision of "long-term scenery should be seen".

A leader without a vision is not, in essence, a leader.If you don't see farther than others, if you don't have foresight, you lack the capital to lead others.Therefore, strategic foresight is an inherent and essential characteristic of leadership.There is no natural division between leaders and executors, and the two permeate each other, but if there must be a distinction, it is more likely to lie in strategic foresight—leaders tend to be more strategic, while executors are Implement strategic vision. We live in a society where information changes rapidly and science, economy and culture develop rapidly.In times of great change, foresight plays a huge role in understanding the reality and anticipating the likely future impact of decisions.Greenleaf wrote in the article "Leadership as a Service": If a leader cannot foresee the future or is unwilling to foresee the future, then he will be regarded as an ethical failure.It can be seen that foresight is of great significance to a successful leader.To improve the ability of foresight, leaders must first master the system theory and grasp the laws of the development of things.This alone is not enough, but at the same time cultivate your own insight and creativity to paint a clear vision for the organization.Observing the world from the viewpoint of universal connection, we can find that the objective material world is a large system of universal connection.

In the summer and fall of 1990, the U.S. Airborne Brigade dropped its first parachute in the Sahara Desert.At that time, people did not link the Gulf War with China's ship repair industry, but Wu Guozhi of Shanghai Ocean Shipping Repair Factory was the first to put forward the proposition that "the Gulf is not far from us".Shanghai Ocean Shipping Repair Factory never repairs Iraq and Kuwait ships, but they repair Hong Kong ships.The Gulf War will affect the production of oil, and the serious reduction of oil will also affect the oil transportation industry in Hong Kong. The oil transportation industry in Hong Kong will suffer losses, and the repair business of Hong Kong ships in the mainland will drop sharply, and the Shanghai Ocean Shipping Repair Plant will be affected. .Based on this, Wu Guozhi immediately made a decision to change the business structure ahead of time to open up new markets.This is Wu Guozhi's strategic vision. He considers the operation of the company on the international stage, and takes the changes and developments of the world's political and economic situations as the basis for the company's decision-making.Sure enough, shortly after the war started, the business of the surrounding counterparts was declining day by day, but the Shanghai Ocean Shipping Repair Factory was prosperous.

1. Improve insight Insight refers to the leader's ability to understand the nature and development direction of things, and it is one of the important qualities that leaders must have.For the leader, his insight is the personal ability to foresee certain actions that the organization must take at a certain point in the future. Guangdong Zhanjiang "Hemisphere" Group Company was originally just a small hardware factory producing mouse cages, hoes and other products. After just over 7 years, it has developed into a large-scale enterprise with an annual output value exceeding 100 million yuan - Guangdong Zhanjiang Home Appliances Company. After that, it became a group company with an annual output value of several hundred million yuan.A key step in the company's take-off was that its decision makers used information to make the key decisions that took off.

Around 1981, when the domestic electric cooker market shrank and the national market demand turned weak, the company's manager Li Jun and other decision makers went against the current and made a decision to switch to electric cooker production.Why?It turned out that Li Jun learned from newspapers and radio reports at that time that my country's forest resources had been severely damaged due to the traditional practice of using firewood as the main energy source in rural areas.Relevant experts pointed out that if the deforestation continues at this rate, by 2020, there will be no forests available in our country, and the spread of environmental crises such as soil erosion will be exacerbated.In order to fundamentally reverse this situation, many experts and authorities pointed out that the development of small hydropower in rural areas should be vigorously advocated, and gradually replace firewood with electricity.On the other hand, since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee, as the rural reforms have taken the lead and achieved great success, the wealth of farmers is much higher than that of urban residents, and a large number of home appliances have begun to enter rural households.Therefore, Li Jun and others believe that substituting electricity for firewood will soon become a major trend in my country's rural energy consumption, and rural areas will become the main market for electric cookers.Therefore, they made such a decision-making plan: not only should the production of existing electric cookers be expanded, but also multi-purpose electric cookers with electric frying pans, electric steamers and other devices should be developed and put into production as soon as possible to meet the actual needs of farmers.

Sure enough, in 1982, the State Council made a decision to vigorously promote the construction of small hydropower in rural areas and implement the energy policy of replacing firewood with electricity.As a result, the more than 800,000 multi-purpose electric cookers produced by the company last year became popular and all were ordered. The company also became the largest manufacturer of electric cookers in the province, and thus took off. Today, society is in the information age. In this age, if people leave information, everything will go wrong.In the increasingly fast-paced social life, "quick changes" have gradually become the characteristics of this era. Only by grasping all kinds of relevant information at all times can we make accurate judgments and correct decisions. The success of the "Hemisphere" group company lies in that its decision makers have recognized and paid attention to this point, and more importantly, they have also achieved this point.

2. Improve innovation ability Innovation is the soul of a nation's progress and an inexhaustible driving force for a country's prosperity.Leaders must boldly develop and innovate, and constantly create new experiences. Before 1949, the fountain pen market was once occupied by "Parker pens". Since Parker produced fountain pens with the most prestigious reputation at that time, and a new "fountain pen" was launched, the company's development was at its peak in the 1940s and 1950s.Later, the Hungarian Byro brothers invented the ballpoint pen, which broke the market monopoly of Parker.Because the ballpoint pen was practical, convenient and cheap, it was welcomed by consumers as soon as it came out, which caused a big blow to Parker's production, and its value plummeted. Parker was on the verge of bankruptcy.

At this time, Marcoli, the company's senior executive in Europe, believed that Parker made a fatal mistake in the market competition for ballpoint pens. It did not use its own strengths to attack others' weaknesses; instead, it used its own weaknesses to attack others' strengths.He raised enough funds to buy the Parker company, and then immediately set out to reshape the image of the Parker pen, highlighting its elegance, elegance and durability, making it a symbol of noble social status from a general popular utility . Starting from such strategic thinking, Marcoli took two tactical measures.First, the production of Parker pens was cut, while the original selling price was increased by 30%.Second, increase the advertising budget and strengthen publicity to increase the popularity of Parker pens as social status symbols.The Queen of England is the head of the Commonwealth, and all her belongings show her nobility.Subsequently, the trademarks and manufacturers of its supplies have also been stamped with a noble brand.Marcoli knew this very well. He worked hard and worked hard to make the Parker pen qualified as Queen Elizabeth II's pen.With the right direction and effective measures, Markoli's strategic goal has been realized. In 1989, the Parker pen raised the price again.The Parker fountain pen marked by practicality has declined, and the old Parker company has also ceased to exist. However, the new Parker fountain pen has returned to glory in the form of showing off and decoration, and the Parker company has also gained a new life.

Foresight requires leaders to boldly innovate, develop new ideas, find new methods and reach new heights in complex situations.Only in this way can we see what others don't see, think what others don't think, and do new careers that others have never done. There are two passages in "Panasonic Leadership Art": "In terms of business management, strategic decision-making is a very important thing. To do something, you must first make a decision and then implement it; not to mention when you use many people At that time, everyone is implementing the strategy according to the person in charge, so decision-making becomes an important key.

"So how can we make correct decisions? In my opinion, it should be to have a outlook on life, career, and society. That is to say, we should cultivate a correct outlook on life and society, and then make decisions based on these cultivations. If you lack these cultivations, you can only make one-sided decisions, and at the same time, your subordinates will not accept it." Since strategic decision-making is a final decision and matters of great importance, decision-makers should carefully consider carefully before making a decision, so as to enhance self-consciousness, assertiveness, and prevent blind obedience.In general, the following questions should be considered repeatedly: 1. Clarify the purpose and scope of strategic decision-making Be clear about whether you should make your own decisions.Before making a decision, the decision-maker must first consider the scope of authority and constraints involved in the decision-making, and then he can distinguish who should make the decision.It should not monopolize the decision-making issues of lower-level decision-making groups.For example, the specificization of each sub-goal, the plan of each responsible group, etc.At the same time, relevant transactional, executive, routine, standardized procedural, and command work with clear indicators should also be handed over to relevant departments or lower-level units, so that the energy of the entire strategic decision-making group does not need to be distracted by such issues.The scope of strategic decision-making should be final approval, program decision, macro-level measures and requirements, overall organization and command, determination of funding and sources, expected benefits, etc.In short, strategic, overall, holistic, and critical issues related to decision-making goals are within the scope of their purview. 2. Clarify whether sufficient information and necessary facts have been obtained Whether the work in the previous stages was carried out in strict accordance with the requirements of scientific decision-making procedures, whether it was solid, and whether there were any loopholes.Sufficient and reliable information is the basis for scientific decision-making.Only by mastering as many materials as possible that are rich, timely, accurate, and applicable can it be possible to make more accurate, comprehensive, and successful decisions. The procedure of scientific decision-making comes from the long-term practice of decision-making. It is the embodiment of the regularity of leadership decision-making and an important guarantee to prevent mistakes in decision-making and realize scientific and democratic decision-making.If the work in the previous stages is not carried out strictly in accordance with the requirements of scientific decision-making procedures, or if it is not carried out solidly, it will make it more difficult to formulate strategies, and even cause bad consequences.For example, if information is provided incorrectly, strategic decision-making is not based on a scientific and reliable basis; if the role of the think tank consulting system is not functioning well, feasible solutions are not exhausted at the current level of understanding, or the existing knowledge is not fully utilized. Some scientific equipment conducts qualitative analysis, evaluation and demonstration of multiple methods, or blindly follows the leader's instructions and becomes a formality, which prevents strategy makers from choosing as many feasible solutions as possible, or can't play with the pros and cons of each plan. Full comparison, or in fact still a leader's personal decision. Therefore, before making a decision, the specific person in charge of the strategic decision-making must conduct a comprehensive inspection of the work in the previous stages, redo the work that is not solid, make up for what can be done, and strive for perfection, so as to benefit The decision is made smoothly and does not take up more time of the entire decision-making group. 3. Is this strategy worthwhile? It is the reanalysis of the macro value of strategic decision-making goals.Make any decision to consider the value of the decision.Before formulating a strategy, ask yourself: Is this decision worthwhile?What will happen if this problem is solved?What will be lost if this problem is not resolved?This will quickly reveal the importance of this issue.When considering the strategic value, the possible consequences of the decision should also be considered. 4. Understand responses from all aspects of the strategy development process All major decision-making actions often involve the interests of various groups in society, and the masses must be very concerned about them.Paying attention to these reactions is of great benefit to ensure the success and smooth implementation of decision-making.Approved opinions can help strategy makers make up their minds, and different opinions are beneficial for decision makers to analyze from different angles and aspects, and are of great benefit to the selection of programs and the formulation of emergency measures.Smart decision-makers pay special attention to different opinions, and are good at absorbing the correct parts from them and deepening their own understanding, thus turning the practical process of decision-making into a process of learning from the masses.There are multiple scenarios from which to choose, and leadership decision-making can choose or optimize activities among multiple scenarios.If there is only one plan, there is no way to choose the best, and it cannot be compared, and the characteristics of modern decision-making will be lost. 5. Determine when is the most appropriate time to launch a new strategy The feeling of waiting for the opportunity is the same as waiting for spring, although I also know that the opportunity will definitely come.When to change strategy is a very important factor for a decision maker.To make a decision in a hurry when the conditions are not ripe is a risky behavior and you will make mistakes; if the conditions are ripe but to delay, superiority will become disadvantageous.Grasping the opportunity and making a decisive decision is the foundation of victory.At this point, we must follow the "moderate" principle, assess the situation and seize opportunities. The shipping business of Hong Kong shipping tycoon Dong Haoyun began to rise in the 1950s. In the 1970s, the world shipping industry was very prosperous, and South Korea and Taiwan also joined the ranks of the world's shipbuilding "kingdoms".Dong Haoyun's shipping business also developed rapidly. Egypt banned ships from non-friendly countries from passing through the Suez Canal, and Dong's tankers showed their prowess and became floating gold mines.The grain harvest in the former Soviet Union was poor, and Dong's bulk carrier joined the route of carrying grain from the United States, all of which brought considerable profits to Dong Haoyun's fleet. In 1980, the world's shipping industry began to show signs of depression. Many shipping companies saw that the prospects of the shipping industry were not optimistic, so they reduced the number of ships one after another. However, Dong Haoyun was just the opposite. He believed that although the current situation of the shipping industry was not ideal, But it is only a short-term behavior, so when others sell it, he wants to buy it, and the investment amount is huge. This year, Dong Haoyun purchased a 56.1-ton giant oil tanker - the "Sea Giant" tanker, which was launched in Japan with a bang.This oil tanker is still the largest super oil tanker in the world. It once brought Dong Haoyun countless scenery, but this oil tanker made him bear a heavy burden. Not only that, Dong Haoyun also spent US$110 million in one fell swoop in the same year to annex the British large-scale shipping group with a million-ton meter-Funassis Group, which shocked the world.The British "Times" exclaimed: "Dong Haoyun's fleet, known as the dragon of the East Sea, has now become a sea dinosaur!" Dong Haoyun's ambition continues to expand. To be better.Especially when he knew that Bao Yugang was prudently reducing the ship, he was filled with the joy of victory, so his desire to invest in the shipping industry was out of control. In 1978, Dong Haoyun’s shipping tonnage was only 330,000 tons. In 1979, it rose to 450,000 tons. In 1981, it suddenly increased to 3.68 million tons. In April, the 150th ship was launched in Taiwan. Dong Haoyun believes that the downturn in the shipping industry and the sharp drop in ship prices are a good time to expand the fleet.However, he ignored the changes in the world shipping industry, which is gradually moving towards depression.He kept investing and buying ships, and finally made himself into a dead end, with no way out. With the severe recession of the world shipping industry, oil tankers and cargo ships have been greatly affected, and Dong Haoyun, who has an excess tonnage, bears the brunt of the severe blow.As early as 1980, after the acquisition of the British shipping company Funassis, its asset-liability ratio was as high as 83.6%. Such a relentless loan investment is very risky and difficult to repay, which is no small matter. In just one year, the world's ship disaster befell every ship owner, the port became the grave of the suspended ships, the rent of the ship plummeted, the profit of "Orient Overseas" owned by the Dong family plummeted, and the debt reached 1.4 billion US dollars. In 1984, the situation was still bad, with a total loss of 970 million Hong Kong dollars.Although "Orient Overseas" has a large number of ships, no one will buy them at this time. Like cherry blossoms, any decision has a certain time and space, and is made under certain time and space conditions.If the time is not ripe, if you act too hastily, things may backfire; if the time is ripe and continuous, wait and see and procrastinate, you may miss the good opportunity.Because leadership decisions are often strategic, overall, and unconventional, it is very important to see the fire and seize the opportunity.If it is grasped accurately, in a timely manner, in line with reality, and in line with the will of the people, it will happen naturally and respond to all calls.To grasp the strategic opportunity is to see whether the conditions are ripe. The ultimate goal of strategic decision-making is to select the optimal strategy from the feasible strategic options listed.When the decision-maker chooses a strategic plan, he may choose one of them and perfect it; he may also combine several strategic plans; or he may propose a new strategy by the decision-maker himself. In the 1920s, as the economy developed and Americans' incomes increased, the automobile market began to change.A car is no longer a simple means of transportation, but has gradually become a symbol of the owner's personality, identity, and status.However, the original T-model cars were all black in color and old-fashioned in style, so they could no longer meet the needs of the market, and their sales were greatly limited.And major companies have launched brightly colored new cars to meet the different needs of consumers, so the sales are booming. Another car company established during the heyday of Ford, General Motors, seized the weakness of the Ford Model T, pioneered a product differentiation strategy in terms of market strategy, and subdivided the car market into seven parts. Introduce Chevrolet, Cadillac and other models suitable for different income levels, concentrate superior forces, and focus on supply respectively. Many people in the Ford company suggested that Ford produce colorful cars, and suppliers complained to him many times, and even the production supervisor, who had always been mature and stable, came to complain and petition. "You don't have to worry about it," Ford said confidently. "The Model T car, which has made great contributions to us, has left a clear and deep impression in the hearts of consumers. I will never confuse this impression with any color." .” "But our car has a single color, how can we open the market!" "Would it be possible to paint the Model T in other colors to compete with GM's cars?" Ford disagreed. "To be honest, no matter what color it is, it can't compare with other people's streamlined cars." "If that's the case, why should we bother?" "But at least we can have new cars on the market, so that people won't say that we are going out of business." The loyal executive still didn't give up. "Fords only come in black! I don't see what's wrong with black, at least it lasts better than other colors. Black cars are Ford's signature, let everyone else follow the trend. I don't like those fancy things." Ford growled... But the truth is relentless.Since 1926, GM's Chevrolet has been second only to the Model T in sales.In the second year, GM overthrew Ford's industry dominance in one fell swoop and replaced it. The art of war says: "Soldiers are impermanent, and water is impermanent. Those who can win because of the enemy's changes are called gods." Farsightedness, don't be addicted to what is near, but also be flexible and change according to the development and changes of specific situations in various aspects; be resourceful, but also decisive; take the initiative, but also do what you can, only in this way can you avoid Get the last victory in the competition. There is such a widely circulated story.Two large-scale shoe factories both wanted to enter the market of a certain African country, so they each sent a salesperson to investigate the market conditions.When the two marketers arrived in the country, they saw the same situation: no matter the city or the countryside, most residents walked barefoot and had no habit of wearing shoes, and there were few shoes sold in department stores.They then pass this market information back to their respective business leaders.The leader of company A believes that since the residents of the country do not have the habit of wearing shoes and the stores do not sell shoes, the prospect of the shoe market is very slim. It is futile and unprofitable to increase marketing personnel and establish a shoe factory. The salesman who telegraphed himself immediately bought a return ticket and returned, abandoning the decision to enter the country's market.However, the leader of Enterprise B believes that the habit of walking barefoot by the residents of the country can be changed. The shoe market is huge and broad, and the development prospects are very promising. At the same time, it is preparing to build a shoe factory in the country.However, within a year, most residents of the country accepted the idea that "walking in shoes is good" and rushed to buy shoes. Enterprise B quickly occupied the country's shoe market by itself. The business was booming and the economic benefits were considerable. Since 1856, in order to alleviate the financial difficulties caused by the war with Turkey, Russia has wanted to sell Alaska across the Bering Strait.For this reason, negotiations with the United States were started in 1857, but due to various reasons, no agreement was reached, and the two sides restarted negotiations in 1867. On March 29, the Russian ambassador to the United States, Stekl, couldn't wait to visit Seward at night and decided to sell Alaska at a low price.Without the consent of the president and Congress, Seward made a decisive decision with great foresight, and bought a territory equivalent to one-fifth of the area of ​​the continental United States for $7.5 million, and signed a treaty agreement early the next morning. The famous Alaska Treaty, which has since expanded the borders of the United States to the Arctic Ocean. Seward's strategic decision-making behavior was said to be a stupid thing by some people who did not understand at the time, and believed that this barren land like a large refrigerator would not bring any benefits to the United States.However, when rich deposits of gold, oil, tin, copper and coal were successively discovered in Alaska after 1880, and when people realized its military strategic significance to the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic Ocean of the United States, there was no No one is amazed by Seward's foresight. Timing in the process of strategic decision-making is not only the leader's understanding of the strategic goal, but also the performance of the leader's personal quality.The concept of opportunity refers to the grasp of the timing of the decision-making problem. When the conditions for solving the problem are mature, or an environment conducive to problem solving has been formed, one should act decisively.If the issue of strategic decision-making is delayed for a long time, time passes and the original decision-making conditions change, even if we redouble our efforts, it will be difficult to restore the original conditions.This is what we often call "opportunity". Opportunity is a special kind of time that has special significance for strategic decisions.As the saying goes: "Opportunity never comes, time never comes." If a company's new product is successfully developed and is very popular in the market, then the company is facing an opportunity to succeed.If the company makes full use of the opportunity, it can quickly improve its strength; on the contrary, if the company misses this good opportunity, it means losing the benefits that are at its fingertips during this period.In today's fierce market competition, if the company does not grasp the timing properly, it may lead to bankruptcy and disintegration of the company.It can be seen that if one blindly pursues safety and security in strategic decision-making, it is often the beginning of a wrong decision-making.Therefore, it is an important condition for the success of strategic decision-making for decision makers to have a keen sense of timing and good judgment to seize opportunities. In ancient China, there is a story about geese fighting. It is said that two hunters saw a group of wild geese flying in the sky, so they drew their bows and set up arrows to shoot it down.Suddenly, a hunter said: "These wild geese are very fat. They must be delicious if they are hunted down and cooked." He insisted on his own opinion and argued endlessly. Later, he invited someone to come out to comment, and finally came up with a solution. The wild geese shot down were half boiled and half roasted.However, when they were about to shoot the wild geese, the group of wild geese had already flown without a trace. Strategic decisions are all utilitarian, and they all aim to maximize benefits.This benefit is sometimes immediate and apparent, while sometimes it is long-term, potential and future.When making strategic decisions, one should not only see the immediate benefits, but not the future, long-term and potential benefits.To achieve this requires farsightedness, and the benefit of decision-making often depends directly on the vision and insight of a decision maker. Shopping malls are like battlefields, and leaders should not only be strategists, but also adventurers who are proficient in strategy.In the business field, as long as you see the opportunity, you must "bet boldly".Successful leaders often launch bold changes or investment strategies, sometimes almost betting on the fate of the company.Donna Brenman, the president of American Safety Kron, is determined to make his company a national company. In 18 months, he opened more than 100 new lines all over the country, so as to preemptively occupy the national market.Another similar example is James McCuller, the head of the U.S. common medical system company. In the first two years of the company's founding, he dared to invest 90% of the capital in computer systems to consolidate the relationship between the company and its largest customer. , and then establish and form the ability to provide quality services to other customers. There are also some companies that are at the crossroads of development, taking risks and making up their minds to change direction. Bob Childen, president of US Childen Corporation, invested $8.5 million between 1965 and 1966 to fully computerize credit files.The company's annual turnover was so small compared to that at the time, Bob was willing to take the gamble because he knew the investment would expand data processing capabilities so much that no competitor could match it.Bob's bet finally paid off.Customers gave the company high marks for its capabilities, and the company's earnings rose sharply. In the early 1980s, Childen once again invested a large amount of money in the system, spending 4.5 million US dollars on the redesign of the program, which greatly improved the ability of customers to obtain data and operate.Now Childen has become the largest record management organization for consumers in the United States to keep up-to-date information at any time. For successful entrepreneurs, the premise of daring to take risks is to understand the odds of winning.The survey shows that those entrepreneurs who dare to make bold bets must go through careful investigation and analysis before deciding to take a risky action, and determine a thorough action plan and a contingency plan. Although in terms of strategic principles, it is necessary to "do not fight uncertain battles."However, in the fierce market competition, the situation is constantly changing, and the flow of information is endlessly flowing. It is necessary to obtain accurate information to make one's own decision-making.It is impossible to achieve "perfection". Competitive strategy does not seek perfection, and seeking perfection does not have everything.Once the perfection of decision-making exceeds a certain "degree" and exceeds a certain threshold, if you continue to pursue perfection, you will inevitably suffer from it.The main information has been grasped, and the market situation is generally clear. If you still hesitate because of some minor details, you will definitely lose the opportunity and cause the failure of the overall strategy.