Chapter 15 Chapter 15 "Tuning the Tiger from the Mountain" and Stock Investment Forecast

In chapters such as "Surrounding Wei and Rescuing Zhao", "Waiting for Work with Ease", "Li Daitao Stiffness" and other chapters, we have successively introduced several emergency methods for shareholders after the advent of risks.Although these methods are very effective, what is a little insufficient is that they are all countermeasures after the advent of risks.Risk means loss, which is the last thing the majority of investors, especially small investors, want to see.For stock market investors, it is best to have a shortcut that enables them to clearly see the development trend of the stock market, so that they can take timely countermeasures such as shifting investment direction before risks come, to avoid losses.In the old saying, this is called "prevention before it happens".

In "Thirty-Six Strategies", there are many strategies to weaken the enemy's resistance and reduce one's own risks, and "tune the tiger away from the mountain" is the most typical one. "Tuning the tiger away from the mountain" is the third strategy in the third set of offensive strategies in "Thirty-Six Strategies". When entering a difficult situation, use man-made illusions to deceive the enemy.Comparing a powerful enemy to a fierce tiger, then a mountain refers to a good position or root. In combat, if the frontal attack is difficult, it can lure the enemy away. In the place where his prestige is half killed, it will be much easier for our army to attack again.

At the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, Sun Ce, the prefect of Kuaiji, planned to develop north of the Yangtze River after pacifying the counties in the south of the Yangtze River.His eyes 01 live in Lujiang County.This place is rich in products and fertile land, which is convenient for raising food and fundraising. It is a good place to achieve hegemony.Another example is that Liu Xun, the governor of Shanglujiang County, is a man of great ambition and talent, and is greedy for money, so Sun Ce is eyeing Lujiang, determined to take it.However, after some investigation, Sun Ce found that Lujiang's terrain is easy to defend and difficult to attack. Although Liu Xun is incompetent, he has been entrenched in Lujiang for many years after all, with strong troops and a rich rear as support.If Fuguo attacks directly, it may be difficult to win.The bold and careful Sun Ce discussed a secret plan with his counselors...

In 199 AD, Sun Ce sent someone to meet Liu Xun with a generous gift.When Liu Xun saw the gift, he immediately beamed and smiled.At this time, the envoy presented another letter written by Sun Ce.The letter wrote: Liu Taishou is a tiger in the Lujiang River. His reputation is far-reaching and his soldiers are strong. I am very willing to make friends with you and be friendly from generation to generation.But compared with you, our country is very small, so we need your support.Recently, I have been attacked by Shangliao County many times, but I am unable to fight back.If you can send troops to attack Shangyue, you will not only avenge me, but also gain Shangliao and expand your land.It really kills two birds with one stone.This letter was in Liu Xun's arms.Liu Xun, who is greedy for money, has recruited many soldiers and horses in the area since he occupied ten thousand mu of fertile land between the Jianghuai River and the Huaihe River. He is planning to annex the neighboring lands and expand his power.After seeing Sun Ce's letter, he didn't know the authenticity, so he decided to lead his troops to attack Shangliao himself.Some of his advisers hurriedly came out to advise: "Sun Bofu (Sun Ce's word Bofu) is the son of Sun Jian. After tigers and wolves, his ambition is not small. The city of Shangliao is strong and difficult to capture. We are alone, and Sun Ce may take advantage of it. Take Lu Jiang from me." However, Liu Xun was blindly arrogant and didn't pay attention to Sun Ce at all. He ignored the counselor's advice and still led his army to kill Xiang Liao.

As expected.After Liu Li left, Sun Ce immediately dispatched troops as soon as he saw that the strategy was successful. As a result, he easily occupied Lujiang without any effort.However, Liu Xun was unable to attack and lost his old lair. He had nowhere to go, so he took his troops to join Cao Cao, and Lu Jiang belonged to the Sun family from then on. It can be seen that "tuning the tiger away from the mountain" is a strategy to mobilize the enemy.As the commander-in-chief of an army, he must be good at using the enemy's illusions, skillfully create various false appearances, and mobilize the enemy's troops according to the situation to achieve his own military goals.If this strategy is applied to a person, it means: lead the main dangerous person out of his deep-rooted territory, make him lose the confidence to resist, slowly rectify him or get rid of the dangerous person around him , Weakened his strength, and then gradually cleaned up his teeth.Han Feizi said: "The reason why a tiger can subdue a dog is because of its claws and teeth. If you make the tiger release its claws and let the dog use them, the tiger will obey the dog instead." This strategy is most often used in power struggles, and its purpose is to weaken the The opponent's resistance, reduce their own danger.So, how does this plan work in the stock market?In other words, as mentioned above, is there a way to predict and avoid risks in time?Yes, that is stock investment forecasting. To put it bluntly, it is fortune-telling for stocks.

Of course, we often say: "the future is unpredictable" and "risks in the stock market are inevitable", but everything in the world is not absolute.Some sudden risks in the stock market, such as changes in international current affairs and politics, natural disasters, etc., are indeed unpredictable, but some are the opposite, because stock market investment is the product of the development of the commodity economy to a certain stage, and the commodity economy has its inherent laws.Following this rule, we can have a general understanding of the development trend of the stock market, thus deduce the potential risks within the stock market and take timely measures.

In countries where the securities industry is extremely developed, the stock investment forecasting system is regarded as an extremely important part of the large field of the securities market. Investing in stocks must be predicted in advance, but there are not many investors who can really predict.Therefore, government agencies or private organizations invite experts to predict the future development trend of various stocks for the reference of the investing public.In the United States, various types of investment advisory firms have dedicated such experts to provide services to the investing public, and the charges are extremely expensive.

People who enter the stock market have different personalities. Some are broad-minded and blindly pursue huge profits while ignoring the existence of risks.Therefore, it is naturally difficult for everyone to agree on the choice of investment objects.Old people hope that the interest of their retirement funds will be stable and appropriate, so they naturally like to invest in high-quality stocks with sound financial structures and strong profitability, so that they can receive interest every year without worrying about a sharp drop in stock prices.Young people are not afraid of tigers when they are newborns, and they are very happy. Of course, their savings will be rolled in high-risk hot stocks and speculative stocks in order to gain huge profits. They are young and have a long life ahead.

Because investors have different personalities, some Western securities investment consultants are often dubbed "financial decorators" by investors.It is because these people are good at observing people's faces, are good at being considerate of people's wishes, and can suggest a set of securities portfolios suitable for each investor according to their different situations, different financial resources, and different personalities, just like a designer according to customers. Provide them with a set of appropriate decoration designs for different hobbies and personalities.

In foreign countries, there are stock market analysis experts who provide investment analysis reports for investors as a reference for stock market investment.In addition, there are securities investment consulting companies that provide investment advice for investors.However, because the provision of this type of information often has to pay a very high price, most investors predict the market by themselves.Therefore, those who play stocks must have the knowledge of predicting the fluctuation trend of stock prices, and learn to tell fortunes for stocks by themselves, as a reference when investing.

From the perspective of investment principles, there are many types of forecasting systems, but basically forecasts are inseparable from long-term forecasts and short-term forecasts. These two forecasts include securities investment environment, national economic growth, foreign trade volume, Price index, production and sales situation of the issuing company, interest rate environment, inventory quantity, profit and loss situation, personnel organization and management, etc. Long-term forecast and short-term forecast have their own characteristics. The factors affecting the long-term trend of the stock market are very complicated, while the short-term trend is greatly affected by relevant news and actual market supply and demand.But in general, short-term forecasting is more important than long-term forecasting when engaging in stock investment. The items that should be paid attention to in the forecasting include not only the items we mentioned above, but also the collection of market dynamics intelligence, including large investors. Dynamics, short-term fluctuations in the business cycle, and the most important one is the need to study and judge the authenticity of various news.Especially in our country, the stock market has just started, and the vast majority of traders in the transaction are novices, inexperienced and weak in psychological endurance. Once encountering troubles before and after the transaction, they cannot make correct judgments.Last year in the Shenzhen stock market there was a rumor that the former manager of a certain company was about to leave the mountain and made a major investment decision. The stock price of the company soared from 1*07 yuan to 1.40 yuan in just a few days, an increase of 30%.In fact, this news is purely from Pan Yan.Therefore, it is extremely valuable to determine whether the rumors are true or false in the prediction.We have described this point in more detail in the section "Watching the Fire from the Other Side". To predict the development trend of stock market prices, it is necessary to collect information from various aspects, including the prospectus of the issuing company, financial reports, product categories, costs, company management fees and employee benefits, domestic market prices, export market prices, and whether the export market is likely to expand. , Product response in the sales market, net income and other relevant information of the issuing company, as well as economic information such as the country's gross national product, national income, national consumption, changes in interest rates and exchange rates, and economic development.In addition, other factors outside the economic scope when predicting stock price trends, such as: political factors, such as changes in foreign regimes, changes in domestic government political policies, etc.; natural disasters and man-made factors; the possibility of war; whether the social employment situation has improved, etc. should be included. Forecasting the stock market may not necessarily be 100% accurate. However, if the relevant information is complete, the news from all directions is well-informed, and the methods of analysis and research are correct, then the forecast obtained is of considerable reference value. In short, it is necessary for stock investors to predict the future trend of the stock market by themselves in order to protect their interests and disperse risks.my country's stock market should also establish a forecasting system as soon as possible.On the one hand, as mentioned earlier, my country’s stock market has not been established for a long time, and various systems are not perfect. The establishment of a forecasting system can avoid the uneconomical phenomenon of wasting funds; Enthusiasm is more than sufficient, but experience and technology are insufficient, and you cannot use scientific methods to guide your investment.In addition, the vast majority of investors have not developed a healthy investment psychology, and some even use superstition to guide their stock market activities.Of course, this is not limited to mainland China, even the Hong Kong stock market, which is an extremely "hot" investment market in Southeast Asia, often has similar incidents.For example: when China and Britain were negotiating on the Hong Kong issue, the then British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher almost fell down in the Great Hall of the People.With this fall, the Hong Kong stock market plummeted, because for Hong Kong people who are superstitious about wealth, the big thing is not good. People think that this is called "to survive a catastrophe, there must be a future blessing", so they eat up "bear market" stocks.Regardless of the result, this behavior alone is ridiculous.In order to avoid this kind of thing from happening in the mainland stock market, the forecasting system should be widely implemented, so that the ignorant investment public can have navigation guidance, increase the success rate, and increase the wealth of investors.Ms. Wei Shuzhuang from CLSA in Hong Kong once suggested that the mainland stock exchange should cultivate a team of analysts. Analysts will analyze and research a large amount of materials and information provided by listed companies, as well as the operating performance and prospects of listed companies. Then provide timely and detailed information to stockholders for reference when stock investors choose, so as to avoid the phenomenon of big ups and downs in the market.This is truly insightful. To sum up, our country should establish a forecasting system as soon as possible. This method of "turning the tiger away from the mountain" can make the majority of stockholders avoid "hidden reefs", and it is one of the fastest shortcuts to achieve "common prosperity"!