Chapter 10 Chapter 10 "Knowledge without knowing it" and "Emphasis on momentum but not value"

The change of stock price is a very complicated problem.There are many factors that affect stock prices. The most frequent and direct one is economic factors. In addition, there are political factors. Changes in the international situation will also cause sharp rises and falls in the stock market. Compared with the stock markets of economically developed countries, our country’s stock market It is still in its infancy, and there are still great limitations in reflecting the country's economic conditions and political trends.With the development of my country's stock market and the continuous improvement of the country's management of the stock market, my country's stock market will be increasingly sensitive to the reflection of economic and political conditions.

At present, the factors that promote the fluctuation of my country's stock prices are mainly economic factors, among which there is a great relationship with the dividend rate.The dividend rate refers to the ratio of dividends to the face value of the stock. One of the purposes of investors buying stocks is to receive dividends regularly, because investors regard buying stocks as a way of saving.But the reason why he invests his funds in stocks instead of depositing them in the bank is because he hopes to get dividend income higher than bank interest.Therefore, when the bank deposit rate and stock issuance remain unchanged, the higher the dividend rate, the more people want to buy stocks, the fewer people want to sell stocks, and the higher the stock market price; on the contrary, the dividend rate The lower the price, the fewer people want to buy the stock, the more people want to sell the stock, and the lower the market price of the stock.Therefore, the dividend rate is an important factor affecting the stock price.The change of the dividend rate is a very complicated process, which is directly affected by the economic benefits of the issuing company.

There are many indicators that indicate the economic benefits of an enterprise, such as the profit rate of output value, the profit rate of funds, the number of days of capital turnover and the profit rate of self-owned funds, etc.The most directly related to the interests of investors is the profit rate of self-owned funds.For example, if an enterprise has all its own funds of 20 million yuan, and realizes a profit of 6 million yuan, the profit rate of its own funds is 30%.Assuming that the company has 1,000 shares in total, if the tax and the increase of self-owned funds are not considered, each share can receive a dividend of 3,000 yuan. The dividend rate is kept constant. If the realized profit is not 6 million Yuan, but 300 square charges, the profit rate of self-owned funds and the dividend rate are both 15%.It can be seen that the better the economic efficiency of the enterprise, the higher the dividend rate; the worse the economic efficiency of the enterprise, the lower the dividend rate.Therefore, the economic benefit of the enterprise and the market price of the stock change in a positive direction.In actual operation, investors judge the stock price change trend based on the future economic benefit expectation of the joint-stock company. Therefore, there will often be a phenomenon that the actual trend of stock price changes does not completely coincide with the economic benefits of the joint-stock enterprise, especially in the period of economic prosperity. , this phenomenon is more prominent.Therefore, we cannot conclude that the stock price has nothing to do with the operating conditions of the enterprise.On the contrary, this phenomenon is the result of the inconsistent expectations of many investors on the future operating benefits of enterprises.Therefore, before buying stocks, investors must pay attention to factors such as the business performance of the company and the distribution of dividends.

However, the actual trend of the stock market often gets rid of the influence of business performance and dividends, and changes due to factors such as finance and market psychology. "Potential" is the future trend of stock prices.If the stock price is in an upward trend, the trend formed by the stock price index it represents is also rising. If you invest along the upward trend, you will definitely gain something; if the stock price is in a downward trend, the trend formed by the index that represents the stock price If the stock price is also falling, investors should sell their stocks instead of buying them.Therefore, before buying stocks, investors should first see clearly what trend the stock you want to buy is in.

In the stock market, many investors made transactions in the opposite direction because they did not make a clear judgment when the stock price rose.At this time, they often adopt the method of waiting or continuing to sell at a high level to lower the average price, so as to buy back the sold stocks at a par or low price in the future when the stock price is adjusted downward.But they did not consider that once the stock price forms an actual trend, it will last for quite a while, and the top position is unpredictable.For example, if a stock rises from a low position, if it forms an actual upward trend, it is difficult to predict and grasp how high this stock will rise in a certain period of time in the future. , it will only be counterproductive.Therefore, there is an adage in the stock market that "emphasizes momentum but not value".

The "value" in this sentence has more meanings. It not only includes the price of the stock, but also includes the performance of the company's operations, the distribution of dividends, and so on. "No emphasis on value" means that investors should not haggle over these aspects, so as not to miss the opportunity.When investors see this, they will definitely ask: It was written earlier that we should pay attention to the company's operating performance and dividend distribution, because these are important factors affecting stock price changes, but now we are not allowed to care about them. So ignorant"?Before answering this question, let us take a look at what is "knowingly ignorant".

"Knowledge without knowing it" is the fourth strategy in the second set of enemy battle strategies in "Thirty-Six Strategies" (the original text is not available).The meaning of the word interpretation is to know this matter clearly, but deliberately pretend not to know. This kind of attitude is a kind of philosophy of life. As the saying goes: "Great wisdom is like a fool", which is also called being wise and protecting one's life. Its purpose is to avoid right and wrong. According to legend, when Lu Mengzheng, a famous official of the Song Dynasty, first entered the court, someone pointed at him and taunted him, saying, "Is this boy also here to participate in politics?" However, Lu Mengzheng stopped and said: "No need, if you know this person's name, you will remember it in your heart for the rest of your life. It's better not to know."But "knowledge without knowledge" as a strategy is not wise to protect oneself.Strategies are used to deal with opponents, how can an escapist attitude overcome current obstacles and make great plans for oneself?

Practically speaking, it is not an easy task to be able to "clearly know" and "be ignorant" of a matter, and it must have a high degree of self-cultivation.The reason why people are divided into smart fools and slaves is that they know and don't know, whether they can be ignorant or not.Fools and slaves can't fathom the sophistication of smart people, and they often say that they have evil intentions, insidious and cunning, and they don't know why, but they don't know that the trick is in it. This is "great wisdom is like foolishness". Let's look at the examples listed below, and you will understand the effect of "knowledge and ignorance".

During the Spring and Autumn Period, the King of Chu once held a grand feast for his officials in the palace, called the Taiping Banquet. All civil and military officials, big and small, including concubines and concubines in the palace, were all present, and everyone was expected to have a good time.During the banquet, there are music, dances, wine and delicacies. It is a happy carnival of "men and women sitting together, drinking wine and chips, unpacking the mattresses and smelling the fragrance". Drinking until dusk, the excitement is still unfinished.The King of Chu ordered people to light candles to continue the banquet, and specially asked two of his favorite beauties, Xu Ji and Maggie, to toast the guests in turn.

While Xu Ji was toasting, a gust of wind suddenly blew out all the candles in the palace, making it pitch black.During the banquet, an official took advantage of the opportunity and touched Xu Ji's jade hand. Xu Ji was ashamed and anxious, she flicked her hand, but she didn't want to but tore off the man's hatband.She hurried back to her seat and said to the king of Chu: "I was ordered by the king to toast just now. I didn't want anyone to take the opportunity to tease me. I tore off his hatband. The king quickly asked someone to light a candle to see who doesn't have a hat." If you bring it, you can punish him severely."

Hearing this, the King of Chu was not angry, but hurriedly ordered the candlelighters not to light it, and said loudly to everyone: "Gu Wang must be drunk with everyone at the banquet tonight. Now, please take off your hats. Drink to your heart's content." Everyone was baffled when they heard this, but after the king gave the order, they all took off their hats, and the king of Chu ordered to light the candles again.Seeing that everyone had no hats on their heads, naturally they couldn't recognize who was trying to take advantage of Xu Ji. After the feast, the King of Chu returned to the inner palace. Xu Ji couldn't help complaining that the King of Chu didn't punish that frivolous official, but the King of Chu smiled and said: "Everyone had a great time at this banquet. It is human nature to be crazy after drinking." Normally, if I drag that person out in public, wouldn't it be a great scene, and how could this be the original intention of the banquet?" Xu Ji had just bowed to the king of Chu for his advice. Later, when the king of Chu sent troops to attack Zheng, a general led more than a hundred people to open the way for the three armies, beheaded the generals and seized the pass, and went straight to Zheng Jing, which greatly boosted the prestige of the king of Chu. . It can be seen that "knowingly knowing why" does not mean being cowardly and swallowing one's anger, but in line with the principle of "a little intolerance leads to chaos and big plans", and to endure it for the time being in order to make great achievements in the future.Those who make this plan must have a far-sighted vision and a broad mind.Similarly, we teach everyone "emphasis on momentum and not value" to remind everyone that only by following the general trend can you get rich rewards. Indeed, the performance of business operations and the distribution of dividends are indeed important factors that affect investors' investment in such stocks.However, the stock market is an advance forecast table for the operating conditions of enterprises. When the price of a stock starts to rise or fall, the operating conditions of the company that issued the stock may not necessarily show good performance or poor management immediately, but may be in the future. manifested over a period of time.In addition, it is worth mentioning that the stock market is sometimes very random, and it is difficult to distinguish based on normal "rational" judgments.This requires the practical experience and on-the-spot judgment of investors.If at this time investors are still stuck on the company's poor operating performance and lower dividends than other companies, instead of waiting for these conditions to improve before investing, they will miss the opportunity.Because when these conditions are improved, the price of the stock is often too high to buy. "Focus on momentum but not on value" has another meaning.Most people have this experience in their daily shopping: when buying something in a bazaar, they will bargain with the seller on the price for half a day before they can make a deal.Because people have such a concept: If the price is higher than my target price, I will not buy it.Of course, people who buy things want it to be as cheap as possible, and people who sell things want it to be as expensive as possible.However, cheap and expensive are only relative terms.When people are optimistic about a certain stock, everyone will rush to buy this stock, and the price of the stock will rise in a straight line.At this time, you are also optimistic about this kind of stock, but you have an entry price in mind, that is, the highest price for buying this stock.Due to the large number of buyers, it is difficult for the stock price to fall. If you are unwilling to enter the market to buy because the stock price is not much different from your target price, and wait for the price to drop to your target before entering the market, you may lose your purchase. This is a good opportunity, because the stock price may not fall to your target price at all and then skyrocket.Don't you lose the big because of the small? Therefore, "emphasis on momentum but not value" is the same as "knowledge and ignorance", which emphasizes longer-term and greater interests, and requires following the general trend instead of worrying about gains and losses for a little benefit.Of course, "emphasis on potential rather than value" does not mean that you buy indiscriminately regardless of the price, but that: compared to the stock price, the trend of the stock price is more important.Before investing in stocks, every investor has an estimate of the price of the stock he wants to invest in and the level at which he is going to buy it. In this way, the stock price trend is clear, the entry price has been determined, and the rest is timing.If your entry price is set reasonably and your timing is good, then your entry price can be reached, and the stock price trend is as you expected, and you will have a rich income.If your entry price is set reasonably, but the opportunity is not good, you should seize the opportunity, don't worry about the difference, and enter the market to buy as soon as possible, so that you will still have a relatively ideal income.All of this depends on whether you can make a decisive decision and enter the market decisively without being intimidated by the higher stock price. In a word, it depends on whether you dare to "knowledge".