Chapter 9 Chapter 9 "Watching the Fire from the Other Side" and Judging the Stock Market

It has been two to three million years since human beings came to this earth, from our ancestors to the present.During this long period of time, human beings have passed through various social stages, and each stage has its own characteristics.Some people say that the ancient society was an agricultural society; Modern society is an industrial society; while modern society is an information society, whoever can grasp the most accurate information at the fastest speed will be in a favorable position.This point is more obvious and fully reflected in the stock market. Whoever can grasp the most accurate information at the fastest speed and act even half a step ahead of others will be invincible in the stock battle of swords and swords.Therefore, every stock investor hopes to obtain an accurate piece of information earlier than others, so that he can be in a favorable position.However, what makes people scratch their heads is that in the stock market, there are countless pieces of information appearing every day, and it is really more difficult to grasp an accurate piece of information than to find a needle in a haystack.

The reaction of the stock market to information is very sensitive, and it is often the information that controls the rise and fall of the market.Because information has such a significant impact on the stock market, investors are very interested in inquiring about information. Therefore, there is the most information in the stock market.There will naturally be some real information, such as the company's operating conditions, past performance, price fluctuations and historical records of the stocks issued by the joint-stock company, as well as domestic and foreign political and economic conditions and trends, and changes in the future industrial structure. , various financial and economic measures and their implementation status issued by the government; however, false goods are not ruled out.In the two sections of "Making things out of nothing" and "Making things out of nothing", we have already introduced to you in detail that in order to influence the fluctuation of stock prices, many large investment companies in some countries even made their own news and spread it in the stock market to confuse investors. , to profit from it.But no matter whether it is true news or false news, one thing is beyond doubt: the stock market without news is a "dead market", because without any external force, it is difficult for stock prices to fluctuate in the short term.Because ordinary investors are not well-informed and have different abilities to analyze and understand various information, it is easy for the public to spread rumors and echo what others say.Moreover, the continuous buying and selling triggered by the dissemination of news tends to spread in a geometric progression, so that it often fluctuates with the good or bad news.

In the process of stock trading, good news, that is, news that is beneficial to the rise of stock prices, is generally called "good" news; and bad news, that is, news that is not conducive to the stock market and will cause stock prices to fall, is called "good news". Bad news.The vast majority of stock investors have to follow the news to operate, and even many experienced investors use the benefits as the basis for making their investment decisions every day. What they care about is not just the real news , Fake news is also very valuable for experienced stock investors.Because even if the news is false, it can provide some clues and provide a basis for them to make decisions.In addition, the herd mentality of the market can also give them the opportunity to make profits.This is because ordinary investors usually have difficulty forming a climate in the stock market and further affecting stock price changes due to their single strength and weakness. But after all, there are too many of these people. When they act in unison, their impact combined into one can also have an overwhelming effect on the stock market.

Since there are countless news in the stock market, the authenticity of many news is also very doubtful.As mentioned earlier, some news is simply nonsense, and it is even released by some powerful investors in order to satisfy their certain interests, in an attempt to influence the trading of some investors, so as to achieve the goal of making huge profits from it. Purpose.Therefore, investors must carefully analyze the information they receive to avoid blind obedience and fall into the trap of others. However, due to the large amount of news in the stock market, the source channels are different, and each investor's understanding of the same news is not completely the same, so the news of individual investors may be completely opposite to the actual situation of the stock market.Sometimes there is bad news, but the stock price keeps rising.Sometimes the news is good and the stock price falls.So, for investors, once they encounter such a situation of indecision, how should they deal with it?

As a truly qualified stock market investor, once he encounters this kind of situation, that is, he is temporarily confused by illusions during the operation, or he cannot judge the authenticity of the news and hesitates, he should be able to stay calm and hold his own. Adhere to the purpose of "not seeing clearly, not operating", go through the period of hesitation, and take corresponding operating methods after the situation becomes clear or the true or false is determined.In the art of war, this trick is called "watching the fire from the other side". "Watching the Fire from the Other Side" is the third strategy in the second set of enemy battle strategies in "Thirty-Six Strategies".Ji said: "Yang is obedient and disordered, and yin is waiting for rebellion. Violence is unrelenting, and its momentum will kill itself. Follow the movement of Henan, and Yushun will move." It means that when the internal contradictions of the enemy tend to intensify and the order is chaotic , we don't have to rush to attack.We have to wait for them to kill each other, and their battle will be more intense. When the enemy is both defeated, we can attack again, and we can win without much effort.And if our side acts too hastily and hastily, then the rush to attack will instead prompt the enemy to form a temporary alliance to deal with us together.It is "painting a tiger is not an anti-dog".At the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, Cao Cao won the great victory in the Battle of Guandu. He defeated many with less and annihilated Yuan Shao's main force in one fell swoop.The once mighty Yuan Shao fled back to his hometown Jizhou with only 800 soldiers.He was ashamed and angry, and soon died of illness.

After Yuan Shao's death, his three sons Yuan Tan, Yuan Shang, and Yuan Xi fought for the Jizhou, Qingzhou, Bingzhou, and Youzhou left by Yuan Shao.They each held heavy troops, and some of Yuan Shao's counselors supported them. In order to fight for power and profit, they began to kill each other. After Cao Cao got the news, he was very happy. He wanted to take advantage of the internal strife among the Yuan brothers to wipe out Yuan's power in one fell swoop, seize the Hebei territory left by Yuan Shao, and achieve the goal of dominating Jinyuan.So, he took Guandu's victorious teacher and killed him in Jizhou.

The three Yuan brothers were having a great time killing them, when they suddenly got a report: Cao Cao led an army to kill them, and they panicked for a while.They knew that if any one of them confronted Cao Cao alone, they would not win, and the only way to resist Cao Cao was to unite.Under the collusion of some counselors, the three brothers put aside their previous suspicions and joined forces to fight against Cao Cao.These three forces have hundreds of thousands of elite soldiers. Although Cao Cao is scheming, there is nothing he can do for a while. Seeing this, Guo Jia, an important adviser under Cao Cao, hurriedly offered advice to Cao Cao: "Our army sent troops this time, and the timing was not chosen properly. The Yuan brothers are fighting each other for the position, and our army's attack instead makes them work together. Therefore, at the moment As a plan, we should withdraw our troops, and without external threats, the Yuan brothers will surely fight again, and when they are both defeated, we can easily win by marching again." Cao Cao felt that it was reasonable, and ordered to retreat.

Sure enough, as Guo Jia expected, after Cao Jun retreated, the Yuan brothers resumed the protracted fight for territory.Cao Cao was secretly happy, he watched the fire from the other side, and when both sides suffered heavy casualties, Cao Cao sent troops again.The three Yuan brothers wanted to unite again, but all three of them were seriously injured and unable to resist Cao Jun.Cao Cao easily captured Qing, Ji, Bing, and You four continents successively, and Yuan Tan also died in battle.Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi did not dare to love to fight, and fled to the north with the defeated soldiers, and went to Gongsun Kang, the prefect of Liaodong.

At this time, some of Cao Cao's subordinates suggested to go all out and chase him to Liaodong, but Cao Cao ordered his troops to retreat to Yicheng to observe the changes.Most of the subordinates were puzzled.And Cao Cao, after the last lesson, knew clearly: "Gongsun Kang, the prefect of Liaodong, was afraid of our army's attack, and he was afraid that he would be annexed by Er Yuan. If I rush into Liaodong now, he will definitely join forces with Er Yuan to reject me. And if I retreat In Yicheng, Gongsun Kang will think that Er Yuan is the most dangerous enemy, and he will definitely kill Er Yuan to please me, and I can reap the benefits of being a fisherman." Sure enough, not long after Cao Cao retreated, Gongsun Kang sent someone to send him off. The heads of the two Yuans came, and Cao Cao wiped out the Yuan Group without any effort.

Of course, using the strategy of "watching the fire from the other side" must be backed by military strength.If Cao Cao didn't have an army to suppress the border, Gongsun Kang would not kill Er Yuan to please him.Moreover, "watching the fire from the other side" cannot just wait passively.When the time is right, it is time to switch from "sit and watch" to attack.The same is true for stock investors. Judging the situation does not mean doing nothing, but once the situation becomes clear, they must act quickly, changing from "sit and watch" to "attack".

In addition, stock investors should also note that to use this strategy, you must have a special quality: "forbearance".As I said before, a lot of news that is difficult to distinguish between true and false appears in the stock market every day. If you can't hold back your anxiety and are confused by a large number of false images and rush to engage in it, it is likely to bring you disaster.Therefore, in stock trading, temporary "forbearance" is very necessary.Once, a professor from a university in the United States came to China to give a lecture. He talked about how he made a fortune in stocks because of "forbearance", which was thought-provoking. He said: There was a period when there were more gunners in the U.S. stock market, and everyone expected that a sharp drop in stock prices was inevitable.At this time, many people advised me to sell most of the stocks I held.However, I didn't do that.Because I think that the retrograde in the stock market may also win, so I secretly told myself, bear with it, and don't act blindly.But a few days later, the monthly report of the National Bureau of Statistics of the United States came out, and the economic growth rate was the best month in the first half of the year. At this time, the stock price rebounded rapidly. .This is the magical effect of "forbearance" in the stock market. In the life-and-death stock arena, stock tycoons often use unscrupulous means to defeat their opponents.In this way, the opponent will be forced into a desperate situation and fight a trapped beast. As a result, it is very likely that both sides will suffer, and there will be no real winner.This is really not worth the candle.Not to mention "we are born from the same root, so why rush each other", even if "the stock market has no father and son", it is indeed not worthwhile to end up with "killing 10,000 enemies and losing 3,000 ourselves".As everyone knows, in the stock market competition, "forbearance" is also one of the necessary factors and strategies. At the beginning of the 20th century, the two major consortiums in the United States, the Morgan Consortium and the Rockefeller Consortium, formed a confrontational situation.The former controls Wall Street, the main financial institution in the United States, and the latter controls the lifeline of oil in the United States.In the past, the two sides seldom confront each other head-on. However, with the changes in economic strength in the early 20th century, the Morgan consortium began to enter the industry from several aspects such as railways and steel, and then began to occupy the oil field.At this time, Rockefeller was also gradually shifting his interest from oil to Wall Street, hoping to create a whirlwind of "Mobil" in stocks.Experts all believe that a commercial war of unprecedented scale is about to begin. However, what surprised them was that for their own benefit, Morgan ceded part of Wall Street's rights to Rockefeller, and Rockefeller manipulated the stock in order to obtain funds from Wall Street, and then helped himself in the fields of mining, railway construction and insurance. Risky activities, ceding part of the industrial scope under his jurisdiction to Morgan.Facts have proved that this move of the two tycoons is beneficial to the American financial and industrial circles, and at least gave an invisible support to the Dow Jones stock price, which was praised by later commentators. It can be seen that when using the timing of "watching the fire from the other side", "forbearance" must be the most important thing, otherwise, "a little intolerance will lead to chaos and big plans".