Chapter 10 8 return to nature

"Now is the chance to make a fortune!" warren.Buffett 1974 In the summer of 1970, when Buffett and his friend Bob came back from the golf course; Buffett noticed that an event was being held in the courtyard of the club, so he asked Bob what it was doing, "That's yours. 40th birthday celebration, look at us." Bob said blankly.As Buffett stood there dazed, the crowd surged toward him and suddenly sang a familiar tune.Despite Buffett's best efforts to restrain himself, he was deeply moved.Now that he is middle-aged, he is already somewhat famous.In Omaha, he was a real figure: he was chairman of the Weekly Sun and a director of the National Bank of Omaha.As one visitor observed walking through downtown Omaha, Buffett could name the financial characteristics of every building and business he passed.

After the liquidation of his partnership, Buffett no longer has a full-time job.Take care of Ken.Chase and Hathaway Mills took only a little time.His three children are also in their teens. A column in The Lincoln Magazine Star portrayed him as a forgotten figure who ran his investments in a four-suite apartment and lived a "pretty simple life."To a young money manager who wanted to ask him for advice, Buffett responded curtly: "I'm no longer in the investment management business, so I can only refuse all requests, including yours."—Sounds like Saying that Wall Street won't be able to hear anything from him anymore.

After his 40th birthday, Buffett regrouped the Graham Group in Williamsburg, Virginia, but this time without Graham himself.Oddly enough, Buffett is the only one who doesn't mess around with stocks anymore.The market price was unattractively high, and he started asking natural questions like: Given $25 million, what is the key way to accumulate more of it? His friend Carol."Buffett feels strongly that his time and fortune should be invested in other goals than simply making more money," Loomis wrote in Happiness. Bill.Ryan even egged him on to run for president. In fact, Buffett is seriously thinking about public utilities.He didn't want to run because he was too common; and, he admitted, he was too skinny for the jungle.But he's making his way backstage, backing Democratic presidential candidates like Harold.Hughes and Allard.Lowenstein.He made close friends with politicians, such as Senator Frank.Church and Richard.Clark, and government official Jay.Rockefeller.

Jeffrey.Cowan, a writer for Country Music and John.Culver had dinner at Buffett's house together.this john.Culver is a candidate for U.S. Senate.Oddly enough, the conversation at the dinner table of these multi-millionaires was all about liberal politics. howard.Buffett once conquered the United States with the image of a perfect man and a closed society view that does not need any change.Warren also has an American sympathy for the downtrodden.Him and Ben.The Rosners and Ken.The Chases stood together.Like his relationships, he abhors zero profiters (like his abhorrence of stock options), but he's still very opinionated about them in country clubs and boardrooms.Once, at a formal dinner, when a guest complained that welfare fees for the poor were too high, Buffett pointedly retorted: "I'm more worried about welfare fees for the rich being too high."

This is a vivid reflection of Buffett's life style.He still lives more or less on his $50,000 salary from Berkshire, his kids go to public schools, and Warren encourages them to do what they love, no matter what they earn something.In fact, Peter was in the newspaper Only then did he know how huge his father's property was.Young Susie said: Our lives are no different from others.It's just that I can buy a lot of clothes and never get into trouble - that's the only difference.I didn't even have a car of my own and had to go to work when I was 16 - as a salesman in a carriage shop.

Buffett always tries to make his wealth public.When his wealth caught the attention of citizens and surprised the whole family, Buffett would joke, "We should put a sign on the door saying it's Bill today. Scott (his assistant) is on the night shift." Watching over the money." Or he would quip: "And Peter, the guy who wanted me to mention him in the will." "Ah! Peter!" Of course, this isn't really just a joke.Warren is sentimental about his money.He reminded the children that they should not expect to get a dime from him.He seemed terrified that even a little money would turn the kids bad.

This may be a bit too stereotypical, but the result is that the Buffett family is money-apathetic, and in an atmosphere of casualness and egalitarianism.At the apple-bobing party in Hollywood, the Buffetts used to invite every kid who passed by to ask for a gift—a move you wouldn't find in JP Morgan or Henry.It was impossible to expect that from Kravis.When people drop by, they can use Buffett's court without saying hello. There are so many people who come, so Buffett calls it "YMCA". Under the influence of the old Susie who kept up with the times, Buffett's house became a refuge for intergenerational conflict in the Woodstock era.One of little Susie's friends, Laine.Ye Qi called it a "safe house".People can just walk in and empty out the fridge. "That's where you can go if it's snowing and the city is blocked," Yeqi recalls. "It's a great feeling to sit in the living room."

Susie has decked out the house in her signature bright oranges and yellows.There are not only paintings made by artists supported by her, but also posters from the Tianping Palace period, such as the well-known "War is a Great Danger to Children and Other Lives".Buffett sometimes goes downstairs to pop some popcorn, but—whether or not he’s “retired” from the money management business—he’s usually stuck at the head of the stairs, Laine.Ye Qi added: Every Saturday night, the living room is always packed.Mrs. Buffett was there too, and we played her some of our own; she would play a few pieces for us, too.At about 12:30 in the evening, there will be a "Susan - can you come up for a while?".There are no restrictions here.If it's time for him to go to bed, we turn down the music.

In 1971, Susie and Warren discussed buying a $150,000 vacation home on the waterfront south of Los Angeles.Like other more expensive houses, it is built near the sea, but not directly on the sea.A few rattan chairs make it interesting.During the first summer, 13 teenage children stayed and played, and Buffett brought a pile of newspapers from the office every day and went back by himself, patient with the children's friends.One night he took the whole party to dinner.After the meal the waiter came over with his credit card and said, "You've used up your limit." Buffett raised an eyebrow at his wife, then handed the waiter a second credit card without saying anything to show that he actually paid for it. Money is more than enough.

While Warren was brooding over her political role, Susie spent most of her time in black North Omaha (which is also where Malcolm X was born). In addition to her role as chair of the local volunteer organization, she made observations at various schools, and there always seemed to be some errand or assignment up north. (Tom Rogers, one of her nephews once quipped: "Oh, are you black? Are you poor? How much do you need?") With Susie's encouragement, Warren began to experiment boldly.Their private trust — the Buffett Foundation — began awarding scholarships to more than 50 black school students each year.In the early 70's, Rodney.Weed, a friend of Susie's who is promoting black-run businesses, asks Warren to join him.More importantly, Weed, who harbors the fantasy of "black capitalism", believes that Buffett is the person who can help him get his Nebraska associate bank off the ground.

Buffett agreed.Him and Nick.Newman (his country club co-conspirator) joined the bank's advisory board and devoted considerable energy.Buffett also made a notional investment -- 1.4 percent of the bank's capital.Unlike Susie, Warren was far from innocent, repeatedly warning the bank's directors that a disproportionate number of minority banks were being forced out of business because of bad debts.When the bank was back on track, Buffett sent a chilling note to the board, enclosing a copy of a newspaper report about the collapse of a similar bank in Denver. You should have noticed that the president of the bank said, "When we started our business, our plan was to help minority investors and those so-called small businesses. Not so bad, that's how we got down." The president made a mistake in blaming the lenders, every bank has a lot of bad debts, and it was really the bankers' mistake to say yes to those lenders. While Associated Bank was also struggling, Buffett himself stayed away from it.Wade once suggested that Buffett find some black students as shelters and teach them some financial knowledge, but Buffett did not respond. "Warren is an enigma," concluded Weed. "He's kind and generous, and he's honest, and he's hardworking. But he's never understood that in our besieged society he's a rich man. Human role.” When outstanding debt piles up, which is exactly what Buffett fears will happen, he explicitly refuses to invest more. Weed once complained that Buffett "doesn't understand the world of the poor," but the truth is that Buffett knows them too well to keep his wallet tight.When he realized that he had no hope of getting anything in return, he was as reluctant to invest in the associate bank as he was in the textile business. Out of his beliefs, Buffett is wary of overtly simple spending motives.george.McGovern, who was running for the Democratic presidential nomination at the time, stayed at Buffett's house and seemed to win him over -- until he announced that if elected, President McGovern would give $1,000 a year to every person in America Dollar rewards.Buffett immediately tossed him like a hot potato, then voted for Richard.One vote for Nixon. In a way, Buffett is stingy, but he really doesn't think people or organizations (or his own children) should enjoy easy money.He measures a social enterprise through the same lens as he measures a business venture: he wants a return.Good business requires people to base themselves on a basis of trial and error and even loyalty, but Buffett can't take that step.In fact, the very principles that have made him a successful investor underpin this love of working for social change.He needs a scale. "In investing you can measure results," he confessed to a reporter, "whereas with these things, you don't know whether you're winning or losing." Like many other prominent figures, Buffett believes he can be both a citizen and a capitalist in the publishing world.Jay.Rockefeller had introduced him to Charles in the late 1960s.peters, The former president of the Peace Group.He is now starting a magazine: The Washington Monthly.This monthly magazine espouses the kind of down-to-earth liberalism that Buffett espouses.So he invested $32,000 and approached Joe, a Liberal friend from Des Moines.Rosenfeld as a partner.Buffett, with high ideals in mind, told Rosenfeld, "It's fun, and if it breaks even, it's worth it." Peters injected his own money right away.Buffett and Rockefeller came to New York and hired a consultant to judge whether the magazine was worth starting.When it was concluded that it was worth starting, Buffett promised to invest another 50,000.At this point he began to wonder if it would be "worth it" as he said? He called Peters and told Peters he wanted to quit—it would be the coup de grace.So Peters quickly assured him that the Washington Monthly was going to be a bonanza, and neither of them believed it.So the two haggled over the price on the phone, with Buffett citing his nasty numbers and Peters trying to bait him.In the end, Buffett also compromised. The amount of money is not large, but just like Ken.It didn't matter what Chasi already knew. “Warren wants the annual report — that’s the shit,” Peters said.Monthly magazines are just the kind of editorial sounding board Buffett had hoped for — influential and often earth-shattering.But as a business, Monthly is a laughingstock.Even though it was understaffed and run on very little money (Peters earned $2,400), Buffett nearly flew into a rage because Peters didn't do an annual report.Even in a business that doesn't make a penny, Buffett still needs his measure. Buffett complained to Rosenfeld: "They talk about open government, but they don't send me the reports." Buffett is indeed very concerned about the press. In 1971, he called the monthly magazine to say what he claimed was a hot inside news, but was rejected by a young editor.They thought it wouldn't be any better if the news came from a millionaire. So Buffett broke the news to The Sun, the weekly Omaha-area newspaper he had bought for Berkshire.Publisher Stanford.Lipsey and Buffett are very friendly.Lipsey would turn to Buffett, drink some Pepsi, and talk for hours about how to improve the newspaper and turn it into a social force in Omaha.They also tried to be the one who decides the throne.So there was an ambitious (and unsuccessful) effort to put forward a candidate for mayor.At one point, Buffett called to tell him there was a brilliant editorial about President Nixon's wage and price controls. "Warren, you showed me." Lipsey had to remind him. Buffett's insider tip involved Boys Town, a prestigious Omaha institution.It was written by an Irish missionary, Edward.Flanagan created it in 1971 to provide a sanctuary for wayward young people.It starred Spencer, the 1939 Oscar winner.Tracy is famous.Sources have told Buffett that Youth Home is lying on piles of money and is far from founder Flanagan's dream. The story was perfect for the Sun, which is active but second to the Omaha World-Herald.And Buffett also gave Lipsey an important introduction: the Youth House was required to register a separate tax return for the first time, and the report showed that it had accumulated a staggering 112 million investment portfolio—— This is Noter.Twice the Daim University endowment. At the same time, it rarely caters to children and conducts heart-pounding direct marketing under the guise of poverty. This kind of story points out Buffett's conscience, and he endows a kind of god-like loyalty to capital.Since any amount of money, even Queen Isabella's meager fortune, sows the seeds for future billions, its squandering or misuse is tantamount to a sin. The Youth House story was reported in secret, with Buffett and his editor proofreading the eight-page report in their bedroom.Buffett titled this story with a quote from the Bible. Here's a line he wants to repeat to anyone who misuses money in public life or in business: "Give a description of your job." The story was published in March 1972 and won a Pulitzer Prize. Buffett loves newspapers, and he often misses his childhood as a paperboy at The Washington Post. He also liked the ink-scented feel of newspapers.But he was very dissatisfied with the Omaha Sun.Like other quasi-social enterprises, such as Associates Bank and The Washington Monthly, The Sun wasn't exactly to his liking, and while he was proud of the Pulitzer Prize, he wanted profits. The Sun, on the other hand, was a poor business, and when it raised its offer its circulation plummeted. "Warren doesn't want that," Lipsey said.The situation seemed to shock him quite a bit.Buffett suddenly wanted to know all there was to know about newspapers, so he began to study the economics of newspapers and other media assets in detail.Just as he had once been completely immersed in the insurance business after discovering GEICO, now he never slept until he knew the newspaper business from top to bottom.The more he learned, the better he knew about The Sun. The Sun had little future as a second-rate paper, and shortly after writing the Youth Home story, Buffett wrote to a colleague: I mentioned that in 1910, 1,207 cities in the country had daily newspapers, of which 689 had two or more competing newspapers.By 1971, 1,511 cities had daily newspapers, of which 37 had two or more competing newspapers.Since my letter was written, the Washington Daily News has been shut down by numerous powerful Scripps-Howard affiliates, along with the Boston Herald and the Newark Evening News. "Wait.The proprietors have learned the hard way that a newspaper of secondary importance to consumer acceptance and social importance can only generate massive losses that the best management and deepest pockets cannot reverse of. Referring to the Omaha Sun, Buffett emphasized that there is no guarantee that profits will be made just by having a rescue story. I keep getting various suggestions—usually from academics who are more or less dissatisfied with the critical views of regional monopoly daily newspapers—that if we all move to one daily, then A bright future awaits us.This suggestion is indeed very targeted, and it is also very sincere.And there's no getting away from the fact that it was never implemented...never mentioned by these theorists. But Buffett has noticed the beauty of owning a major newspaper.Such a newspaper, he told his companions, was like the only bridge in a small town, and anyone who wanted to cross it had to pay a bridge toll.In a city with only one newspaper, all advertisers are in the same boat.Department stores in Omaha advertised only in the Omaha World-Herald, a daily monopoly—meaning that the paper had relative latitude to raise its prices.It had a protected franchise, which for lesser businesses, like Hathaway Mills, could only be a dream. Buffett would love to buy the World-Herald, but it's not for sale.So he began to search around in the newspaper industry, trying to find a newspaper.He checked every possible newspaper in California and Maryland. He made a formal request to Cincinnati, but was turned down. He also made Bill.Ryan arranges with Tom.Murphy had dinner together.tom was ryan in ha A classmate of Foo's, now the chairman of Met/ABC, is also a rising star in the broadcasting enterprise.As soon as the two met, they shared similar interests.Murphy took Buffett to a Republican meeting in Miami and decided to add Buffett to his board.After Murphy got word from Ryan, he traveled to Omaha, where he could meet with Buffett without interruption. They played "a horrible game of tennis," after which Buffett treated Murphy to a steak.Buffett figured out the purpose of Murphy's trip, and he didn't want Murphy to ask some unexpected questions. "You know, Murphy," he said, "I can't be a director of your company without a majority, and your stock price is too high. But if I can help with anything, you can always call me .” A stock price that is too high has been a problem for Buffett.Since the dissolution of the partnership, Buffett has not been able to find a suitable business.Entering 1972, Berkshire's insurance company had a securities portfolio worth $101 million, of which $17 million was invested in stocks.Buffett put the rest of his money into bonds. However, he gradually returned to the game step by step, this time the catalyst for his transformation was Wall Street.Fund managers, terrified by the boom-bust, retreated into their shells. Their funds are now concentrated in a group of large, well-known growth stocks such as Xerox, Kodak, Polaroid, Avon, and Texas Instruments, to name a few.They were named "The Nifty 50 Stocks." In the prevailing view, these companies, unlike the "high achievers" of the boom era, will grow forever.They are therefore said to be "safe" - indeed, at any price point. By 1972, the "Nice 50 Stocks" were trading at an astronomical 80 times earnings.Wall Street has drawn some principles from the Great Boom, but none of these principles themselves are necessarily correct.Funds flock to "safer" stocks, but risk never focuses on this or that stock.It shows up everywhere investors blindly copy each other. At this time, Buffett began to look for opportunities outside the "nice 50 stocks" and bought these stocks for Berkshire's insurance company. In 1973, the Nifty 50 began to crack, and fund managers retreated in panic.Those "safe" stocks are falling, so where are they going?It once broke through 1000 points.The Jones index fell back to 950 points.The broader market is also faltering.Wall Street, fresh from the madness of the Great Boom, is now suffering from another ailment.Broker reports were empty, analysts were delivering packages, and companies that went public in 1969 saw their stocks lose half their value. This mental anemia has produced both matching and opposite responses for Buffett.His change, eerily familiar yet completely reversed, was like a film reel reversed in ages past, when the years of great prosperity slowly dried up his ideas and desires.But now, when the market was down, he was bouncing like a colt. Looking back at the business of Berkshire Economics in 1973, one would have the impression that Buffett had swept through a huge aisle of commodities—grabbing NPI here, Detroit International Bridge there, another trail Then came Sperry & Hutchinson, then American Trucks, Zhixingwei, and Handy Harman.He was faster on the aisles when the market was down -- Walter Ask Poson, Caldwell Bank, Dean Ritter, King's Emporium, Moses Shoes, Ford Motor Company, Pickering Husband & Company, Mitcham.John & Templeton, Grand Associates, Stabeck & Washington. Textile salesman, Ralph.Rigby visited Omaha and found Buffett in a state of near-ecstasy. "He said a lot of people study softball status or the rules of the game," Rigby said, "but he has a hobby that makes him money, and it's a pastime for him." At one point, Buffett's bridge partner, Judge John.Grant, mentioning that he had enjoyed trying an interesting case.Buffett blinked. "You know," he said, "some days I wake up and want to do tap dancing." In the evening, Buffett would go to Chris's Grocery on 50th Street to buy the latest edition of the World-Herald, which had the stock's closing price, and then he would come home and read a stack of annual reports. For everyone else it's a job, for Buffett it's just an ordinary night. Not only does he work like this from 9pm to 5am, but when he's awake, the wheels are spinning.He would ask to help Peter with his homework, but Peter knew his father didn't really want to do that.When Buffett came home one day, he found his young son huddled in pain on the landing, and Peter accidentally fell on his back while changing a light bulb.Buffett habitually rushed to the study, whistling and went upstairs beside him.Later, realizing how cruel and heartless he was, he offered to apologize to Peter. In a sense, Buffett is the child of the family.His utter devotion to his work to the exclusion of everything else, like his idiosyncratic eating, his fear of change, and even his perpetual energy and good humor, has a quality that no one else has. Common traits of children.One girlfriend said that when she was with him, she felt like they were "kids playing pinball". His overwhelming investment in stocks has caused his wife a lot of trouble in many ways.According to Susie's close friends, she longed for more of the shared happiness of husband and wife.When Howie, the middle child between them, runs into trouble—sometimes in episodes—Susie turns to her psychologist father for guidance and her charming husband as if in a dreamy room. in the room. It wasn't that Warren didn't care about his family, he never meant to—they even knew he wouldn't hurt a flea on purpose.As Peter said, he was blocked by a blindfold. The entire family spent quite a bit of energy discussing the blindfolds.They see work as the main thing, and a spiritual struggle that no one can disturb.In a sense: "They're right, a lot of things happened in that dream house, and in the early to mid-'70s, it was more of a lot of things that didn't happen before." Buffett would pick up the phone and answer the most mundane "Hello!"According to Clifford, one of Buffett's agents."Buffett would call in two, three, four, five times a day," Hayes said. He just wants information, he doesn't need opinions, he asks about companies he's interested in.I'd say, "What do you want, 5,000 shares? 10,000 shares?" And he'd say, "Buy it." He also runs his fingers along the line of the price-to-earnings ratio column on the stock ticker: Usually each P/E (price/earnings per share) ratio is in the single digits, and now is one of the few times on Wall Street: America is being abandoned and no one wants it.Buffett's reaction is very unique, "When others are afraid, you have to be greedy." Now he has other ideas besides cash, which is a complete reversal of the 60s. In 1973, Bob, who ran FMC.Marott, asked Buffett to be a blind spectator when several candidates to manage pension funds spoke.They made it mysterious and Buffy Tet didn't think they were very good. "For two days," Buffett recalls, "we sat and listened, and at the end he asked me what I thought, and I told him it was a complete waste of time." It turned out that Marott had asked Buffett if he would try his hand at managing some of FMC's pension funds.Buffett said: "Okay. But you have to understand that maybe FMC will only get the dregs after my inspiration. I put Berkshire first, followed by Warren and Suzy. Buffett, and third is FMC. "Actually, he has enough ideas to distribute among these three companies. For Marlott, this is really a trick up his sleeve.No one -- neither FMC pensioners, nor any shareholders, nor anyone in the public -- knew that Buffett was running the money for him like Joe.DiMaggio used to drop his Chinatown outfit to secretly play for another team (Buffett's FMC portfolio grew 51% after 5 years in the business, compared to 3% for the Dow. ) As he puts it, Buffett's primary concern is Berkshire.Back in 1973, he hired Salomon Brothers to raise $20 million through the sale of senior notes.Dennis, an investment banker who just graduated from Harvard.Bowen met Buffett in Naguna Beach.They planned the deal while enjoying the view of the Pacific Ocean and drinking Pepsi.Bowen didn't know much about Buffett's reputation on Wall Street, and later met Buffett at the Salomon Brothers headquarters in New York.They strolled through the spacious public trading floor, people pointed at Buffett, and traders erupted in shouts—all foreshadowing the drama that Buffett had in the company.Robert the Master Stock Trader.Spiegel came running up and blurted out, "Warren, I have a bunch of...", trying to sell him shares. Buffett made the decision to sell bonds based on his own experience: take advantage of the cheapness to make more money. (If you wait to borrow until you need a loan, there's a good chance that someone else will want to borrow at that time too, and -- inevitably -- the interest rate goes up.) The borrowers were not very enthusiastic.Salomon Brothers had to convince them that the money was for Buffett—not textiles, and the bond sale document again stated that Berkshire had lowered the funds in textiles from 24 million to 11 million.Even so, borrowers are insisting on a clause so that they demand repayment when Buffett sells his shares.Finally, he got the money at an 8% interest rate.A few months later, Donald of Salomon.Marchnell sent Buffett a congratulatory message: From an outsider's point of view, the capital market has clearly confirmed that the famous Buffett is indeed quite shrewd in terms of finances.I'm not sure if it's possible to finance you today, or if... the interest rate is going to be 9%, this is the best opportunity for you. Unbeknownst to Marchnell, Buffett was eating up The Washington Post Company bit by bit. In February, Berkshire bought 18,600 shares at a price of $27. By May, the stock fell to $23 per share.With the support of Solomon's low-interest funds, he bought another 40,000 shares, but the price still plummeted, and Buffett was still buying. In September, he bought 181,000 shares at 20 34 .By October, little known to the public, Berkshire had become The Post's largest outside investor.This newspaper was sent by Buffett in his childhood, and it is exactly the media asset he longs for. by Catherine.The Post, run by Graham, also owns four television stations, Newsweek ① This price is for comparison with the current price.By 1994, The Post had split its stock by four for one share. Magazines and printing factories.These assets are often privately bought and sold, making them difficult to value.Buffett thought they were worth $400 million, while the stock market only valued the entire company at $100 million. The short sellers—those professional money managers—couldn't dispute the numbers.So why are they selling stocks?The reason is simple, they fear that the stock price will fall even more.They worry that someone else will be short. Buffett analyzed the Post on his own and decided it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.Sentiment in the market is sinking -- a serious one, in fact.At this time, the value of the stock has nothing to do with the value of the underlying asset, and it is difficult to find such an opportunity in the real world.Buffett recalled: There's a big difference between going to Kalamazoo and letting people who own stakes in television stations sell their shares.Since it was down another 20 points that day, he should have sold you the station at a cheaper price.When you're in business, you're in the real world, but everyone is thinking about the relative price of the stock.当我们在一个月内买下8％或9％的《华盛顿邮报》之后，卖给我们股票的人之中不止一个都会觉得自己把价值4亿的资产以8000万卖给了我们。他们之所以愿意卖给我们是因为电讯业股票已在下跌，或是因为其他人都在抛出，或别的什么因素，这些理由都是毫无意义的。 我们很清楚他们的理由，当巴菲特投资于《邮报》时，华尔街记录单集结了一群华尔街的媒介分析家来评估这个行业。他们一致认为，根据“基本原则”来判断，正在出售的报纸股票已经超过最近距离，可是他们不敢抠动扳机。奥尔巴赫的肯德里克。诺布尔承认说：“《邮报》显然是一家极高成长潜力的大报纸。”但诺布尔依旧沾染了华尔街最致命的习惯： 市场正在抛弃这些基本的原则，根据我们经济资料的经验来看，我们认为市场的这种冷淡态度还将持续下去……对于基础分析家来说，这是一段相当困难的时期。 事实上，它正是基础分析家的黄金时间。媒介类股票部十分便宜，只需简单的数学证明便能说明这个事实。媒介类分析家的工作并不复杂，他们刨根问底只有一个目的——评价媒介公司的股票。股票正在最低点左右徘徊，现在正是他们的时机，而他们却让这时机悄悄地溜走了。 8月份的时候，《波士顿环球》的拥有者联合出版公司上市了。大家普遍认为，它的财产太少，因而风险会很高，却没有注意到《环球》占领了2/3的市场份额。令人感到恐惧的是，一旦有什么事情发生了——假如波士顿市民不再想看红袜队的比赛，RedSox——就会陷入麻烦之中。 第一波士顿银行作为承销商只好把价格定得很高，在听说巴菲特对报纸很感兴趣之后，这家投资银行向奥马哈发出了一份试探性的建议，而巴菲特的态度十分含糊。 他私下里却像车轮一样做着旋转运动。联合出版公司由两个古老的波士顿家族所控制，自1872年以来开始出版《环球》，它的发行量、收入以及利润都频频上涨，而且这种趋势还在加快。据巴菲特所知，它的对手《旅行者先驱》在去年倒闭了。感谢上帝，波士顿正变成一个只有一家报业的城市，或者说，正如巴菲特所预测到的，一个垄断的收费桥梁正横跨在查尔斯河上。 对于巴菲特来说，联合出版公司的单一性，不再是一个弊病，而变成了一种美德，因此他那皇冠上的珠宝并没有变得黯然失色。 伯克希尔公司在市场上是最大的购买者。在写给联合出版公司总裁威廉。泰勒陈述理由的一封信中，巴菲特解释道： H.安得森（《奥马哈世界先驱报》出版商）是我的一位好朋友。他会告诉你，我对好的报纸怀有多么大的热情，我同样也热衷于证券买卖。如果能把两者结合到一起，那种诱惑力是我无法抗拒的。《波士顿环球》的股票市场价值只有不到3千万美元，这简直太荒谬了。 在市场上投资的技巧就是把钱用在刀刃上——按巴菲特的话来说就是“结清支票”。由于巴菲特及时发售了债券，伯克希尔公司有了充足的资金。 它到处买进股票，尤其是传媒介的股票，有布思报业、多媒体公司、哈特—汉克斯报业，它一直在买进。 这个时候，巴菲特向奥马哈的迪克。霍兰老兄提出了一个听起来十分幼稚的问题：拥有一家广告机构有什么样的好处？霍兰没有多想什么，便口若悬河地谈起自己当老板的感觉有多么多么好，很快地就发现了巴菲特的真正意图。伯克希尔想要买下两个大机构的主要部分，国际出版集团和奥利维。马①萨尔国际集团.巴菲特把广告业看成传媒业的一张免费票券，为什么说是免费的呢？比方说，与新贝德福德的工厂所不同，广告机构不需要资本——一张桌子加上几支铅笔足矣，对巴菲特说，没有资产是锦上添花的事，因为利润就可以直接流进所有者腰包中了。 华尔街上的箴言却恰恰与此相反，只要一个机构的“资产”在晚上从电梯上搬下来，这个机构就不复存在了。像GSO这样的机构，其实什么都没有，只有一些英语专业的人在空喊口号，从理论上来讲，谁都可以做得到。bill.瑞恩和巴菲特一样也在买进相同的广告股票，就这一观点，他对《华尔街纪事》着实恼火了一番。 纪事： （广告业）是种开放的行业，任何人在明天都能成立一个广告机构。 瑞恩：我们谈论的不是指那些呆在格林威治山庄阁楼里的留着长发的艺术家。我们所说的是一家遍布世界的国际出版企业，它就像可口可乐，通用以及爱克森公司这样的客户，它的净收益估计能达到1亿5千万！ 事实上，大机构都相当稳定。另外，由于华尔街上人气低落，巴菲特和瑞恩在做多时，价格都在底价为3～4倍赢利率左右。 到1974年为止，伯克希尔公司拥有了国际出版17％的份额。执行副总裁卡尔。施皮尔弗格突然意识到巴菲特有可能在考虑接管国际出版，赶忙打电话给巴菲斯询问他下步的计划是什么。 巴菲特笑着问：“什么计划？” 这下施皮尔弗格真的有些担心了，巴菲特邀请他在下次飞往西海岸时在奥马哈停留一段时期。“太巧了，下周我就要去加州。”施皮尔弗格撒了个谎。在他的记忆中，“当时奥马哈气温大概有零下十度左右，我走路都跌跌撞撞的。我没有穿高统橡皮套靴，因为我得假装自己是在加州的路上。” 巴菲特向施皮尔弗格说自己买进了国际出版公司纯粹是为了投资。他拉长音调谈论自己的哲学：收费桥梁；本。格雷厄姆……等等，整个儿是个问 ① 巴菲特仍然在尽可能地保守秘密。但是，有规定要求所有的投资者披露5％的执有额。 答考试。在施皮尔弗格听起来，这些东西都过于简单了。身为麦迪逊大街的智者，他适合于做一名自然哲学家。实际上，他一点也不相信巴菲特说的话。 这并不让人觉得惊奇。尽管巴菲特在市场上有所活动，但他还是相当隐蔽的，他在伯克希尔公司年度报表的信都内实真实、言简意赅，丝毫没有他在写信给合伙人时的那种文采飞扬。而伯克希尔。哈撒韦公司则更让人难以捉摸。 年度会议是在新贝德福德召开的，就在西伯格。斯坦顿陈旧的象牙塔里。 会议正式开始以后，巴菲特就会让大家敞开提出各自的问题，这是一年唯一的一次可以问巴菲特有关投资方面的问题的机会，但是很少有人来问，曾经和巴菲特一起上过课的科拉德。塔夫以及塔夫的兄弟——证券专家埃德温会来参加，而巴菲特会花上几个小时来回答塔夫兄弟提出的问题。 人们对伯克希尔公司几乎没有什么兴趣，连报纸上都不标出它的股价，公众中任何一个人都可以买进它的股票，然后“免费搭车”（无须付费，正如合伙人一样），但是对它本身的兴趣几乎是零。自从1973年达到87美元的价位以后，伯克希尔股票就一直在随大势暴跌。到了1974年，它的价格竟然只有40美元/股，据埃德温。塔夫说： 人们普遍都丧失了兴趣，即使那些认识沃伦的职业投资者也是如此。有人说过他想在80美元的时候买进，等着看它升回去，结果沃伦宣布自己退休的消息，把这帮人都给甩了。 但是似乎巴菲特在头脑里已经为伯克希尔公司的未来做了一番打算，他还在更多地买进，甚至让证券行业的朋友们罢手，以使那些零散交易的股票一旦出现就可以第一个落入他手。巴菲特在奥马哈的经纪人查尔斯。海德尔说道：“沃伦不乐意让别人买伯克希尔的股票。”巴菲特下定决心要巩固自己的统治权，他让主管会计韦尔纳。麦肯齐不要对自己的公司进行投资。（直到1978年，巴菲特才终于告诉麦肯齐说他可以投资了。——此时已是麦肯齐受雇以来的第12个年头了。） 与此同时，巴菲特的股票一跌再跌，到1973年底，伯克希尔公司曾花费5200万美元的组合市值跌到只有4000万美元了。巴菲特给洛克福特银行的吉恩。阿贝格写信说： 你说银行的计划在1973年里业绩有多么糟糕，我的情况比你更惨。幸亏我做的时候已经解散了合伙人企业了，这对我的合伙人来说真是件好事。 到了1974年，账面损失更加严重了。而用伯克希尔股票价格来衡量的净价值跌了一半多，然而这些事实对他的士气却没有任何打击，另一位也在凯威特广场工作的资金管理者斯坦。帕尔米特说：“从巴菲特的谈话中来看，他仿佛没意识到什么。” 巴菲特这种世人少有的可以把自己的感情与道。琼斯工业平均指数隔离开来的本事是他成功的一大原因。60年代当他有成堆的金钱时，他却满脑子是恶兆。而如今当他的投资组合陷入困境时，他却对此垂涎三尺。他在给伯克希尔公司股东的信中这样写道： 我们觉得手中持有的证券具备在未来显著升值的潜能，因此我们对股票投资组合很满 meaning. 他所持有证券之一的联合出版公司，在1973年内赢利率增长了40％，但是它的股票却如巨石落地般一跌再跌。一度曾以10美元/股上市的股票，在一个月里连连滑落，先是9美元，然后是8美元，7 12美元——已经少于5倍赢利率了。当一种股票跌幅达到25％时，这对投资者而言可谓是一场酸性测试。人们开始怀疑是否有任何失误之处，但是巴菲特坚信自己比别人内行。1974年1月8日那天，他又买进了联合出版公司股票，11、16日再次买进。在2月13、15、19、20、21、22日连续多次重返市场。 一年来他都在不断地买进，就像一个拿着桶的喝水人站在雨中那样。 有107天他都买了联合出版公司股票，最低买价达到5 12 美元/ 股。 在投资业历史上，1973～74年的市场滑坡奇怪地被众人忽略了，然而它确实有划时代的意义，甚至可以和30年代的大萧条相提并论。股票像熟透的水果从高空坠落，一度热衷于以80倍赢利率买下“漂亮的50种股票”的基金管理者们，不愿意买下只有5倍赢利率的联合出版公司股票，他们倒不是害怕有可能出错，而是担心自己的步调跟不上潮流。他们担心自己是在主观臆想，不是在长期范围内，而是一季度一季度的期间：从《华尔街纪事》对奥本海默的管理者埃里克。F.米勒的一则采访上，便可见一斑。米勒住在纽约落后的布鲁克林郊区地带，他热爱球类运动，一点儿也不喜欢城市。 我希望我们可以脱口而出说自己对这些独特的领域有强烈的爱好，但我们从不这样做，一部分原因在于我们认为现在不是去做一个英雄的时候，这会有相当大的风险，除非你可以把我放到一个岛上观察上3年时间。 值得一提的是，只有现在才是出英雄人物的理想时机。尽管资金管理者都曾在最模棱两可的股票上押下过赌注，现在却又把最好的股票拒之门外，虽然乐观是他们的第二天性，但这是鲜为人知的。剩下的一切便都是恐惧的。 1972年各大刊物都以显著标题，描述这场前所未有的恐慌。 《商业周刊》：“从墓地呼啸而过”；《福布斯》：“为什么买股票？”《商业周刊》：“可怕的崩盘”；《巴伦》：“弥散的恐慌”；《福布斯》：“悲观正在加剧”； 《福布斯》：“一片未知的水域”；《幸福》杂志：“关于股票悲观的一个案例”；《福布斯》：“经济形势失控了吗？” 经济陷入衰退之中，通常采取的用投资刺激经济的方法还没出台。1974年的通货膨胀率达到了11％。出现了连30年代都没见过的新的症状：通货膨胀和经济衰退。两者之中解决任何一方都必然伴随着另一方的恶化。经济学家们又杜撰出一个丑陋的字眼：“滞胀”，利率升到了20世纪以来的最高点。政府正面临亏损等一系列问题，比如说总统对水门事件知道多少，什么时候知道的等等，把它搞得纷乱不堪。尼克松铤而走险，宣布自己并不是恶棍。整个华尔街都屏住呼吸。政治圈里的话题关于弹劾，而金融圈里的却是萧条。 在全球势力范围内，美国的资本主义都处于衰退之中；在欧佩克组织的成功业绩的激励下，第三世界国家正在组建卡特尔。经济学家们认为黄金时代的发展到头了，只剩下一块大小固定的馅饼被瓜分成更小的份额，甚至在街角的加油站都可以清清楚楚地看到这些证据。 华尔街也被国家的阴沉气氛所笼罩，“漂亮的50种股票”下跌了80％，宝丽来从149美元跌到14 18 美元，施乐从171美元跌到49美元，而雅芳则从140美元到1858 美元，仿佛从顶峰坠入了深渊。华尔街上最大的养老基金管理者，同时也是“漂亮的50种股票”的忠实支持者——摩根。葛兰蒂把客户的资金亏损了近2/3，银行家信托公司也不再为它的信托账户买进股票了。很有意思的是，现在却是买进市面上所见的一切股票的时机。 road.琼斯指数在7月底以757点收价，到9月时，它只有607点。倘若用道。琼斯指数作为衡量的标准的话，40％的美国工业都已经化为一缕青烟了。但是道。琼斯没有着手衡量损失的大小，自1968年以来，股票平均跌了70％，夏季的一个交易日里，有447种股票创下新低，比过去人们常念叨的大萧条时期的情况还糟糕。熊市已持续了6年——比1929～1932年的熊市时间长出一倍。 和其他人一样，巴菲特对通货膨胀充满了恐惧心理。他对此的反应是拼命搜寻股票，例如报业股票，因为它可以逐渐提高赢利率。同时，他避免公司支出大型的资本费用（在通货膨胀的世界里，资本密集型企业需要更多资金来更新设备和存货）。 巴菲特并没有以客观经济预测为基础来买卖股票。举个典型的例子。亚纳尔公司，费城的比德尔公司，因为能源危机的到来便极力敦促客户们卖出可口可乐、百事可乐、DrPepper以及七喜的股票。 超级市场已经注意到这样一种潮流的兴起，顾客都愿意每趟多买点东西而少跑几趟。也许他们愈发不愿意在车上载满占地很大的软饮料了…… 巴菲特应邀去哈佛商学院作讲座——就是这所学校曾在多年以前将他拒之门外。巴菲特讲到投资者们正在以非理性和“极端压抑”的风尚来各自行事，也许他想起了霍华德。斯坦。他曾在几周前出现在《纽约证券分析家》，斯坦是一个投资公司——德赖弗斯公司的主席，该公司曾以一部经久不衰的电视广告片而名声大振——这部广告片的画面上是一只狮子正潜行在华尔街的边道上。但是现在，这头狮子看起来像一只小小鸡。斯坦承认股票太廉价了，但他却被“我们所面临的问题的严重性”所吸引住了。他预言将有一个充满匮乏的可怕前景，在这个新世界中价值的标准都将难以发挥作用： 市盈率，历史赢利状况，每股收益率计划以及许多其他的被你我用过的分析工具似乎都脱离了现在的实际状况……在那么多可能影响证券价格的因素中，我认为，将含有来自于外界某种特殊行业所产生的影响——使得更出色的分析家睁大眼睛，在他专业之外的附近领域充分发挥他的想象力。 在斯坦关于对这个生生不息的世界的启迪性观点中，每股赢利率已经无关紧要了。巴菲特决定抛弃这种观点而呆在“他的专业领域”之内，对于国家面临的问题会如何影响《华盛顿邮报》股票的问题，他无法做出回答，他真正天才的地方在于他从来不企图去回答它。社会的文明形色多样，而它的动力来源又何等的丰富，因此人们无法预示它的潮流，只能听任大波小浪冲击证券的价格。战争总是有胜有败，繁荣和兴旺会因永恒而欢呼，也会因消 失而悲叹。政治、裙边以及享受四季愉快的天气又何尝不是如此。分析这些东西是华尔街最大的游戏——也是它最大的消遣，在它喧嚣的沙龙会上每件事都很有趣，但没有哪件事是确定的——不论是总统，是经济，还是欧佩克对百事可乐销量的影响。 所有这些都无法代替对某种股票作出严格的评价。当你买了一股《华盛顿邮报》时，你得到的最终回报是不会以中东战争爆发与否为基础的，你所买的不多不少，只是企业的一个份额——是对它的出版业和电视台资产在未来所获得的利润的一份分享的权力。诚然，如果你知道《邮报》或任何一家企业的价值是多少，那就好像发出一个清晰的音符。这正是巴菲特所竭力追求的声音。其他任何事都无关紧要，而最无足轻重的是成千上万在对未来争论不休的刺耳声音，正如他曾经对合伙人说过的“未来永远都是模糊的”。 而对他来讲，真正的清晰是某种证券可以以比资产额小许多的价格获得，其他每件事——儿子摔伤的背部，小家伙的哭喊——都被他排到了一边。 痛苦的问题依旧存在，旧的价值标准是否难过时？有人想起了格雷厄姆对议员富布莱特的问答。20年前，议员问他：“为什么连很廉价的股票的价格也必然会回升起来呢？” “那正是我们行业的秘密所在。” 9月份时，格雷厄姆从他的退休生活中重新露面，他劝告证券分析家们，敦促他们认识到他所谓的“价值复兴”，他提醒道：“投资，并不要求天才。” 它所需要的是，第一，适当的智慧；第二，良好的经营原则；第三，也是最重要的一点，是顽强不屈的性格。 还有其他人，比如比尔。瑞恩和约翰。内夫，都公开指出采取重大步骤的时机来临了。但是整个华尔街还是沉醉于哈姆雷特式的练习中，“做或者不做——股票”，华尔街经济所海登。斯通发出了怀疑，事实清清楚楚地摆在面前，市盈率达到了战后最低，股票也十分廉价，海登。斯通痛苦地说： 还有那么多问题摆在面前，也许一次事情也无法解决……我们的整个社会结构变得如此不同……没有人能够预测未来……我们能充分地领悟和成功地应付它吗？ 它使人非常沮丧，海登。斯通提议对主要股票的购买推延一下，“直到有更大确定性出现”。难道会有人如此好心地按响铃声，在市场转变之前提醒海登。斯通吗？人们所丧失的不是非凡的智慧，而是格雷厄姆所说的坚韧的品德，按照自己的信念“顽强不屈地”行动下去。 就在这个时刻——1974年10月初——巴菲特生平第一次对股票市场做了公开的预测。这件事发生在《福布斯》对他采访的过程中，那时道。琼斯指数只有580点。 “您有什么感想？”《福布斯》的记者问他。 “它就像一个在妓院里纵欲的男子。现在是该投资的时候了。”巴菲特说。 他对未来的疑虑悄悄消散了，尽管他的股票很低，但他的热情不减。伯克希尔被堆满了证券，巴菲特日复一日地买进它们。 我把投资业称为世界上最伟大的商业，这是因为你永远不必改变态度。你只需站在本垒上，投手扔来了47美元的通用股票，39美元的美国钢铁公司股票！没有惩罚，只有机会的丧失。你整日等待着你喜欢的投球，然后趁外场手打瞌睡的时候，大迈一步将球击向空中。 他曾在1969年洗手不干了，但是现在，正当市场处于低潮时，他又系好了钉鞋，竖起了球拍，“这儿不再有什么”，没有什么模棱两可的东西，正如他对《福布斯》所说的，“现在是该投资的时候了。”巴菲特又回来了！