Chapter 3 Lack of external selection pressure, the crux of China's unhappiness

Can a slap wake us up? Several events in China in 2008 shaped our outlook on the world situation, and two events particularly impressed me.These two things, one is China's Sanlu milk powder problem, and the other is the financial crisis in the United States.These two events happened almost at the same time, and they are not alarmist, they are very symbolic and representative.Sanlu milk powder can be said to be a representative event in any case, reflecting the huge problems that Chinese society or civilization is currently facing.Not only Sanlu milk powder, but almost all milk powder have problems; not only milk powder, but almost all food products have problems.In the 21st century, we have such a huge government agency, and people say that we are an authoritarian country, a country that can enforce laws and regulations, and we can't deal with such problems in a timely manner.This reflects the decline and collapse of Chinese civilization, while the financial crisis in the United States reflects the decline and collapse of American society.I think these are clear omens.

Some of our cultural conservatives are always saying: how good our leadership and our elite are, just rely on them.The Sanlu milk powder incident slapped them mercilessly at this time, telling people with facts that they were too optimistic. It should be said that China's elites are definitely not the most incompetent in the world.A friend went to Southeast Asia and made an appointment to meet, but they often came five or six hours late.A friend told me that when he visited India, the Indians asked: How can you build highways so fast? Your infrastructure construction is so good and so fast.The friend replied: Our infrastructure construction is very corrupt, and a lot of project funds have been embezzled.Indians asked: how much was corrupted? My friend is not an expert in this field, he probably estimated: 5% (we have a large base for infrastructure construction projects, and 5% is of course a large amount).Indians laughed: You are too clean, we are the other way around, 95% are corrupted. (I think this is just an estimate, it just means a lot.) My friend is very strange: 95% has been embezzled, so how can this project still work?The Indian replied: We have a pattern, don't we have democracy?Use democratic procedures to spoil this project, stop repairing it, take 95% of it away, and spoil this project with 5%.When I mention this episode, I am definitely not against democracy, but democracy as a tool really depends on who uses it.

To be honest, compared with some third world countries, our country's elite is pretty good.From this perspective, China is not bad.But I think that a nation as big as ours, with 1.3 billion people living independently in this world, cannot hold itself to such a low standard when the energy crisis is getting worse.Frankly speaking, once there is competition for energy or other natural resources in the future, the fate of those nations will be very miserable.We have to be much better than them, we have to be the best in the world! I am afraid that the big external blow will not wait too long to come.This big blow to us humans is the depletion of natural resources such as oil.

Americans Stephen Lieber and Glenn Stracy wrote a book "The Coming Economic Collapse".This book tells that many people are talking nonsense now, saying that the major problems in the world today are environmental issues, climate warming, etc. It is pure nonsense, even his 17-year-old son can see that these problems are nonsense, The real problem is the depletion of natural resources.The oil on the earth is probably not enough to warm the world much, so it will take another 20 or 30 years. This is based on the premise that the consumption of oil by human beings is not increasing rapidly.So is there an alternative?In fact, I can't see it at all now.The book says: Some people are optimistic, as long as the price of oil goes up, we will find oil.This is nonsense. In fact, basically no large oil fields have been discovered in recent years, but the level of technology and cost of finding oil are getting higher and higher. This just proves that oil is getting harder and harder to find in the earth's crust. , really is gone.The technology is so high, and you spend so much money to find it, why can't you find it?In the past, it was not possible to spend so much money to find it. The level of technology in the past was much lower than it is now, and oil can be found.Therefore, it is almost impossible to find a large amount of oil resources.

On the other hand, countries such as China and India need to use a large amount of oil, and the rate of increase is very fast, which no one can stop.Besides, why stop us from using it?There are some environmentalists in China, including some cultural conservatives, who say that China should be economical, that man and nature should be in harmony (is bigu good?), and that oil should be saved.This point of view seems wise, but in fact it does not hurt your back when you stand and talk, and it is also extremely harmful in practice. First, it's not feasible.Those who say such things live in big houses and drive cars.They don't do it themselves to reduce oil consumption, but they want us to reduce it, which is very hypocritical.The most hypocritical is the former Vice President of the United States Al Gore, whose house uses more than 10,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity a month, and even won the Nobel Prize for environmental protection.Environmentalists have a lot of virtues, so the promotion of environmental protection, whether it is Western propaganda or Chinese propaganda, is often nonsense, human nature is so unstoppable.

What I just talked about was from the perspective of all human beings, so let’s look at the second point.From a Chinese point of view, is it useful for us to save it?Isn't the energy we saved consumed by Westerners?Under today's world situation, whoever saves first dies first!That is to say, if anyone wants to save energy consumption, he must be eliminated from the earth first, because if you do not develop, you will fall behind if you do not develop, and you will be eliminated by others if you lag behind.Under this pattern, human beings are unlikely to solve their own energy problems by throttling.What about open source, looking for alternative energy sources?I don't think there is any need to talk about coal, natural gas, oil sands, etc. Those fossil fuels can at most prolong their time.Nuclear energy is not good either. It is said in "The Coming Economic Collapse" that if we fully develop nuclear power plants, uranium will be used up within 6 to 30 years.What is truly sustainable should be renewable energy.However, the current situation of renewable energy is very grim.Hydropower has been developed and utilized by humans on a large scale for decades, and it has almost developed.There is also biomass energy (the earliest use of human beings is actually biomass energy: cutting down trees). The development of biomass energy in recent years has caused food prices to skyrocket. Developed countries burn corn to drive cars, and people in developing countries have to starve.Is it possible to break through in the future?For example, we don't know the prospect of using seaweed to produce biomass in the sea.The wind is a little hopeful, but the proportion is not high.If you really plan to rely on wind energy, you need to work hard to build wind energy generators now.Some time ago, some people in China began to fool around that solar panels can solve the problem on a large scale.I checked the information, and this hope is very slim, and there is no breakthrough in technology yet.According to the U.S. Department of Energy, solar panels will generate at most 1% of U.S. energy use by 2030, which is too late.Even if the Taklimakan Desert and the Arizona desert are completely covered according to those bluffers, how much construction will it take?How much energy will be consumed during construction?It's all about problems.Why did a group of people in China come out to fool solar panels that can solve the world's energy problems?To put it bluntly, it is because many Chinese companies have produced a large number of solar photovoltaic panels with a low level of technology, so they want to create public opinion.

What if the energy problem just cannot be solved?There is no way, civilization can only retreat, and the current complex civilization cannot be maintained, so it will retreat to simple civilization.This is also the view in the book "The Coming Economic Crash". The Chinese are least used to the concept of "returning civilization".Because since the written historical records, Chinese civilization has basically not experienced any major retrogression.Of course, every time there is a change of dynasty, there is often a sharp drop in population and a relatively simple civilization, but compared with other parts of the world, it can only be regarded as a small setback.Our 100-plus years of modern times can be considered a small retrogression, but if we look at it from the perspective of civilization history, it is still not a retrogression.But as far as the entire human race is concerned, not to mention retrogression, many civilizations have become extinct, and Europe has experienced a major retrogression.According to some Western scholars, after the collapse of the Roman Empire, it took more than a thousand years for Europe to recover to the level of the Roman Empire at that time.European civilization in the Middle Ages was very simple. According to the History of European Civilization told by Guizot (that is, the Guizot who was scolded in the "Communist Manifesto", he was a historian and a politician), the European society at that time was basically The status is roughly the family of several people of the lord, with a few servants, some serfs, and a few free people attached to it, etc. This is a political unit. It is very simple, with extremely low productivity and extremely hard life.We know that the Romans loved to take a bath, and the bathhouses were beautifully built, but from the Middle Ages until modern times, Europeans did not take a bath, and the king of France only took a bath every six months.Therefore, civilization can go back.Civilizations are also extinct.For example, due to the exhaustion of energy sources, civilization is extinct. This is not a very rare thing. The civilization of Easter Island is said to be extinct just like that.

How did the Easter Island civilization become extinct?The ruling class on Easter Island has formed a tradition of competing whose stone statue is bigger, and the bigger it is, the more prominent the leader's lofty status will be.Here comes the problem, to stand up the stone statue needs to be pulled with a rope, and the rope is made of bark.As a result, during the 300 years, all the trees were cut down to pull the stone statue.With all the trees cut down, they lost many sources of food, couldn't build canoes, and couldn't go fishing in the deep sea.We can regard the tree as the energy source of the island. When the energy source is exhausted, civilization will be extinct.

In short, civilizations can be extinct or regressed, such as Europe, Loulan, North Indian civilization, etc., nothing unusual, but the Chinese are not used to it.Europeans are more used to it than Chinese. "It's cool now" is self-deception Why do I always blame cultural conservatism and political conservatism?Because what they mean is "It's fine now, it's cool now."The problem is that not only are many people unhappy now, but they are getting more and more unhappy. We can clearly see that if the economy is opened up a bit, Chinese talents will be able to gallop in the economic field and give full play to their talents.However, not all people are suitable for doing business. For example, some people are suitable for politics, some are suitable for academics, and some are suitable for culture, entertainment or media. If there is no democracy in these fields, competition is not allowed. No one will be convinced to stop fighting in peace.Everyone clearly sees a group of idiots sitting in that position, but they cannot compete with them.There are so many people who are 10,000 times stronger than them, but they can't use their talents. Can everyone feel better?

The Sanlu milk powder incident after the Olympic Games dealt a great blow to Chinese patriotism.The superiors prefer the "Bird's Nest Generation", which is both patriotic and obedient. The "Torch Generation" (actually the same generation as the "Bird's Nest Generation", but not necessarily the same group) may not be obedient and tame enough.As soon as the Sanlu milk powder incident came out, public opinion fluctuated greatly. Many people in the "Torch Generation" rebounded and were very angry, saying: "We were stupid when we took to the streets three or four months ago." Elite corruption has brought huge problems to the cohesion of the Chinese nation.

"Shenzhen Seven" went to the sky, and there were a lot of cheers. The patriotism of the Chinese people was regained a bit, but the Sanlu milk powder incident was hit so hard that "Shenzhen Seven" could not be happy.After the Sanlu milk powder incident came out, when it came to criticizing foreigners, including the Japanese, young people immediately refused to accept it, saying, "Look at yourself first, you did so badly."I don't criticize the Japanese anymore, and I don't even allow others to express criticism that may be against the Japanese.I saw a post on the Internet about a Japanese street phenomenon.Many tourists like to take pictures on the streets of Japan, so many Japanese girls dress up in groups, especially coquettish, and pose on the street for everyone to take pictures.This is a human desire to express. The person who said this did not criticize Japan, but just mentioned an anecdote about Japan.The word "shock" is used in the title, which is nothing more than the custom of today's "headline party" (but not really a title party), but immediately someone came up and scolded them, saying that there is nothing wrong with the Japanese. What are you scolding Japan!Reverse racist sentiment is coming right now.I have been engaged in public opinion survey work for a long time, and the ups and downs of public opinion in 2008 really forced us to face such a problem: "Unhappiness" can be changed.It is also the "Torch Generation", who defended our country before, but he can still not defend you in turn. Young people were noble in the torchlight, and they demanded that the elite be at least as noble.The young man said: We are patriotic, so should the government do a better job? But in any case, the post-80s today are much more patriotic than the older generations.They may have many shortcomings in terms of private morality, but in terms of patriotism and national cohesion, the post-80s are better than those born in the 70s, those born in the 70s are better than those born in the 60s, and those born in the 60s are better than those born in the 50s and 40s. rising law.This rule does not apply until after the 20s.Because the post-20s were hurt by foreigners and experienced the War of Resistance Against Japan. Since the post-80s have no historical burden, their growth process is relatively good, and they have not suffered from the sufferings of their parents and grandparents.But their patriotic sentiments were hit hard by the elite's lack of nobility and corruption embodied in the Sanlu milk powder incident, and the blow was not light.The young people's blood boiled with enthusiasm, but in the end they made you sap. Lack of external selective pressure and everyone is screwed Where is the root cause of the problem?Let me expand the topic a bit and talk about why China must have a "noble group" and a "noble society". It is very effective to use sociobiology to explain human phenomena and historical phenomena.There is a passage in "Sociobiology: The New Synthesis" by Edward Wilson: "It is no exaggeration to say that sociology and other social sciences, as well as the humanities, are the last branches of biology waiting to be integrated into the modern synthesis. .” The tone is a bit loud, but I think it is very likely that this is the case. A species, without the pressure of the external environment on it, will absolutely degenerate.For example, we know that many cave animals are blind.Their ancestors could see when they lived on the ground, so why did they go blind?The reason is very simple, after going underground, the eyes are no longer needed, that is to say, the underground environment has no choice for its vision.When it is on the ground, if its eyesight is not good, it may not be able to catch something to eat, and it may be eaten by others. When it is underground, it will not be able to use its eyes. It does not matter whether its eyesight is good or not.However, the gene governing eyesight will produce replication errors during genetic replication. If there is no selection and suppression, errors cannot be eliminated, and the gene governing eyes will become random garbled codes, so the eyes will go blind. This principle corresponds to human society, right?In fact, it is also true.Compared with other species, human beings now have almost no selective pressure, and other animals do not threaten human beings.So is there any selective pressure among human groups?At least not for nuclear powers now.To discuss the selection pressure among human groups, we need to use a hierarchical selection theory in sociobiology.What is the main meaning of this theory?It means: If a group has no external pressure, that is, no external selection pressure, what will happen internally?It must be the most hypocritical, dishonest, most self-serving and immoral people who live the best!because they are the cheapest.In this way, no matter through inheritance or imitation of successful people, you will eventually find that bad dispositions quickly permeate the whole society. This society is full of the worst people. There is no good person, no one with integrity, and no one Altruists, there is no one with high moral character, no one, just like bad money drives out good money in economics.Then, why do we see that in human society, there are still some good people, some people who are honest, some people who do things for others, and some people who lead everyone towards a common goal? Why are there such people? Woolen cloth?That's because there is a higher level of external group selection pressure.In the case of external group selection pressure, if all the internal members of a group become bad people, this group will be eliminated as a whole.Because of the existence of this hierarchical selection, we see that there are good people, heroes, and good leaders in our society.Darwin had this idea, and I think it fits the social phenomena we have observed. In fact, other thinkers have similar ideas.For example, Toynbee's "challenge-to-challenge" theory, and even earlier Mencius's "invincible foreign patients, the country will perish", also mean this.But the lines of logic expressed by sociobiology are clearer. Prosperity must decline, and when it is so strong that there is no choice to suppress it, decline and decay begin.Some people say that we Chinese have this kind of virtue and that kind of virtue. Some of our virtues are really not very good. The root cause of the disease is here: Ancient China was very strong. In a long history, the external selection pressure was very weak, so it became more and more corrupt. This is very natural. of.The United States is also in the same situation now. It has only been mixed for more than 200 years, and it has reached the point where China has been mixed for more than 2,000 years, which is faster than China. Since the world's powerful countries fought two world wars, they no longer have the pressure to choose.With nuclear weapons, they dare not fight each other and choose to suppress the weak.After the Cold War, there was almost no choice to suppress. The American Fukuyama was so happy that he said "the end of history". How is China today?Although China seems to be sickly as some people say, in fact, there are not many choices in the outside world.China is also a nuclear power. No matter how ineffective China is, no one dares to beat you up, and the Americans dare not beat you directly.So many people in society feel good about themselves, and feel that they can be mixed up.Under such circumstances, recession is inevitable.The United States and China are the same, and they will definitely decline. Song Xiaojun said that the Chinese may need to lose another battle, which is what he meant, and this is the introduction of external selection pressure.Under pressure to renew itself, under pressure to eliminate internal corrupt parts, or corrupt groups are completely eliminated.The United States also has this problem, so we say that it always actively creates enemies. In fact, this is not a problem of the inferiority of the Chinese nation at all. Human beings all over the world are the same. The United States is definitely not as moral as the reverse racist elites in China say. For example, Wall Street, according to Americans, is just a few "fat cats" "Snatched up all the common people in the United States.Many American retirees have no food and clothing, do not know what to do, and have lost all their savings. I said that the United States is declining, and some people in China have come up again. They talk about how strong the United States is, that today's financial crisis is nothing at all, and that the United States will recover soon, and so on.These people are stupid.When I talk about the decline of the United States, I don't focus on the current financial crisis in the United States at all. The financial crisis is just a phenomenon that can be used as an example.We must have a broad vision of penetrating historical civilization, and sociobiology can really help us have such a broad vision of penetrating historical civilization.But I analyzed sociobiology in combination with human history, which is my own point of view.Sociobiologists often talk about these things in very little space, just a little bit, and the so-called "political correctness" in the West cannot accommodate them, so I guess they dare not talk about them.What I said was wrong, the responsibility is all my own; yes, I also have a little credit. If a society never chooses to be suppressed, it is of course a good thing. It can be said that it is a paradise on earth.The problem is that there is no such thing now, you are paralyzed and lazy, and in the end the pressure comes all of a sudden, and you are finished.The crisis of natural resources will come sooner or later. The price reduction of resources brought about by the current economic depression is temporary. The "unhappiness" of the Chinese people is just the beginning. This is not just intuition. Many people have already seen this prospect.